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Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

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Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Tue Feb 14, 2012 2:12 am

First topic message reminder :

Adding in new economic data shows that the so-called Austerity economic policy alone does not work. It's clear too me that its totally unsustainable as it destroys countries competiveness while draining confidence within business while driving down not only living standers that in turn shrinks demand. Do you believe the Tories will stick with there only economic policy up-to the next GE? if they do, I happen to believe most people will call time on the Tory party.





Growth Forecast downgraded for the Fifth time by (OBR in November 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 2nd Time by Bank of England 1.4% August 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 3rd Time to 1.7% (Budget 2011)
Growth forecast Downgraded for 3rd Time to by Ernst & Young from1.7% to 0.9% Jan 2012
Growth forecast Downgraded for 2nd Time to by CBI to 1.3% July 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 4th Time to by CBI to 1.2% Sept 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 4th Time to by CBI to 0.9% Feb 2012
Growth forecast Downgraded for 3rd Time to by I.M.F to 1.3% July 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 4th Time to by I.M.F to 0.6% Jan 2012
Growth forecast in the Tory budget down for a 3rd time to 1.7% (Budget 2011
Growth forecast in the City as low as 1.2% 2011
Disposable income has seen its Sharpest fall in 30 years or 1980s (ONS)
Annual Earnings Growth remains at 1.9% in February 2012
GDP The last cycle of robust growth in potential output of 2.9% was 1997 to 2006 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
GDP when the Tory-Liberal coalition come to power ,the UK was growing at an annual rate of 4% (OBR)
GDP sluggish at just 0.5% for April 2011 (OBR)
GDP City Growth forecast for 2012 are 0.3% to 0.4% (FT Sept 2011)
GDP Growth for forecast set by bank of England at 2.0% 2010
GDP Contracted by 0.5% in the Q4 in 2010 (OBR)
GDP is 0.8% lower than in November 2010 (OBR)
GDP IS 0.2% lower than MARCH 2011 (OBR)
GDP Growth Contracted by 0.5% Q4 2010 (OBR)
GDP Growth April 2011 was Q1 0.5% (OBR)
GDP Growth July 2011 was just Q2 0.2% (OBR)
GDP Growth starts Jan Q1 2012 at just 0.2% (OBR)
GDP Growth December 2011 Contracted by 0.2% Q4 (OBR)
GDP April's figures have just clawed back last years 0.5% contraction in 2010 (OBR)
GDP is 1.1% lower than the OBR thought it would be in Sept 2010 (OBR)
GDP Growth is now lower than 1930s, 1970s, 1980s 1990s (OBR)
GDP UK is 3.6% blow its pre-financial crisis 2008 (H.M.Trasury)
National Debt hits £1.03 Trillion for the first Time Jan 2012 (OBR)
National Debt actual debt after repurchase by Bank of England is £650 Billion (Guardian on B of E figures)
National Debt Coalition & Bank of England QE for 2011 was £75 billion (OBR/Bank of England)
National Debt Coalition & Bank of England QE for 2012 was £50 billion (OBR/Bank of England)
National Debt total Quantitative Easing is £325 Billion in February 2012 (OBR/Bank of England)
National Debt private + public sector debt totals some 500% 2011 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
National Debt Tory Party forecast National debt will fall by just £54 Billion by 2015 (Tory party website)
UK Economic Decline is two and half times that of the entire Euro zone (ONS & H.M.Trasury) 2011
UK Economic Decline is 77% of the EU’s decline for 2011 (H.M.Trasury)
UK Economy shrank by 5.0% in 2009 the biggest calendar year fall since 1921 ( NIE)
UK Economy shrank by 6.3% in 2011 the biggest calendar year fall on record by October 2011 ( NIE)
UK Pound exchange rate has fallen by 21.0% against the Dollar 2011 (H.M.Trasury)
UK lose market share accelerated from 2008 to 2010. (Oxford Economic )
Government Borrowing Tory-Liberal coalition come to power stated an additional £111 Billion 2009 (OBR)
Government Borrowing Net borrowing was just £7.3 Billion in 2010 (H.M.Trasury)
Government Borrowing forecast up by £54 Billion (Budget 2011)
Government Borrowing overshot in Q4 by £127 Billion (OBR)
Government Borrowing overshot in Jan 2012 by £157 Billion (ONS)
Government Borrowing topped the £10 billion by just Feb 2011 (OBR)
Government Borrowing to be £10 billion higher every year from 2012 (OBR)
Government Borrowing in Jan 2012 was £13.7 billion for December 2011 overshooting (OBR)
Private Pension deficit up from £24.5 Billion to £31.7 Billion by Sept 2011 (ONS)
Private Pension Deficit £158 billion December 2011 (ONS)
Private Pension deficit £255.2 form £222 billion in Jan 2012 (N.M.A & ONS)
UK 10 Year bonds, the Historical high of 12.84% set in April 1990 (H.M.Trasury)
UK 10 year Bonds, Record low of 1.97% set in Jan 2012 (H.M.Trasury)
UK 10 Year Bonds, Yields decline by 1.47% from 1989 to 2012 (H.M.Trasury)
UK 10 Year Bonds, averaged 6.28% (H.M.Trasury)
Unemployment up to record 17 year high (ONS)
Unemployment record was set in 1981 at 2.6 million or 9.8% of the Workforce
Unemployment for woman rose for the 10th month in a row March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment increased by 20,000 the highest three month figure since Jan 1997 (ONS)
Unemployment is now 7.7% of economically active population March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment forecast in the budget set to rise to 8.1% in 2012 (Budget 2011)
Unemployment is was2.6 million in March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment is now 2.8 million in December 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment Claimants increased by 12,400 in March 2011 to April 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment Woman Claimants increased by 9,300 to 474,400 in March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment Men Claimants increased by 3,100 to 994,200 in March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment 16-24 hit 1.043 million in Q3, the highest since records began in 1992. 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment benefit payments rose by 1,200 to 1.6 million by December 2012 (ONS)
Unemployment benefit payments up to 1980s levels (ONS)
Business failures in 2010 was 23,000 (ONS)
Business failures in 2011 was 20,900 or 6.5% (ONS)
Bankers Bonus for £14 billion for 2011 (FT & Guardian & BBC)
Manufacturing was flat Feb 2011 (ONS)
Manufacturing production out put 1.5% decline in April 2011 (ONS)
Manufacturing touted as the engine of the economy fall by 0.3% in July 2011 (ONS)
Manufacturing jobless in Q4 2011 to Jan 2012 was up to 395,000
Manufacturing production Cable & Wireless Communication slumped nearly 17% in 2011 (FT)
BDOs output index dropped from Decembers 91.4% to February 2012 to 91.2%
Exports fell in Jan 2011 (HMCR)
Exports Vs Imports increased by 14.7% in October 2011 (HMCR)
Factory gate prices rose 0.9% between February & March 2011 (ONS)
Factory gate prices rose at an annual rate of 5.3% in May 2011 (ONS)
Factory gate prices in December 2011 to 4.8% (ONS)
Factory gate prices fell in January 2012 to 4.1% (ONS)
Factory gate Producers input price inflation in January 2012 is 7% (ONS)
Mortgage & Credit card debt will soar to £2,126 billion by 2015 (ONS)
Mortgage debt now accounts is around £21,000 per person April 2011 (ONS)
Home repossessions peak set in 1991 at 19,000 homes (council of mortgage lenders)
Home repossession forecast to rise to 45,000 in 2012 (council of mortgage lenders )
Construction industry suffered a 0.5% fall in output from November to January 2012 (ONS)
North sea Oil Tax up by £2 Billion for 2011, with HMCR taking 88% in Tax (ONS)
The Worst squeeze on living standards for 90 years
Consumer spending accounts for 65% of the UK economy April 2011 (OMS)
Consumer spending shows the biggest fell in total sales since the survey began in 1995 (KPMG)
Consumer spending has fallen by 1.7% for four consecutive Q in 2011. (ONS)
Personal Spending shows it first drop in personal spending power since the Thatcher slump in 1980s (KMPG)
Petrol down by 1p with VAT up by 2% in the Budget 2011
Petrol prices average increased by 52% up to March 2010
Food Prices rose 7.4% in the biggest rise since 2009 (ONS)
Food Prices rising at 4.9% rising faster than any other OECD in Jan 2012 member (UBS & OECD)
CPI Inflation increase to 3.3% December 2010 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
CPI has put the cost of living double its target from 4% in Jan 2011 to 4.4% in April 2011 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
CPI September 2011 rises by 5.2% (ONS)
CPI October 2011 fall by just 0.2% to 5.0% (ONS)
CPI January 2012 fell to 4.8% from 5.0% (Bank of England)
RPI has gone from 5.1% to 5.5% the highest since 1991 (ONS)
RPI Jan 2011 leapt to CPI 4% from 3.7% with Market Oracle putting real inflation at 6.6% 2012 .
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Wed Jul 25, 2012 5:17 pm

Now even MSN are involved in Tory Conspiracy Theories, blue.

http://news.uk.msn.com/uk/articles.aspx?cp-documentid=250675573

"Chancellor George Osborne has come under fresh pressure to ease his austerity measures after shock figures revealed the economy suffered a worse-than-expected 0.7% decline between April and June."

You can't describe it as paranoia if everyone really DOES hate you!!

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Phil Hornby on Wed Jul 25, 2012 7:49 pm

" Managed to get that off your chest Phil?....."

Oh, there's plenty more where that small taster came from! Why, I could go on all night...

( Stick with me, bluey - I'll soon have you asleep and dreaming of Margaret Thatcher and growth in the economy.... you know, all that yesteryear stuff. But no dribbling...) Smile
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Phil Hornby on Wed Jul 25, 2012 9:49 pm

Recession? What Recession?

I picked up my new car today :

(msn)

Hard to see what the fuss around tight household budgets is all about. As I told the man in the Toy Shop , I'm now thinking about saving up for a real one... Embarassed


Last edited by Phil Hornby on Thu Jul 26, 2012 8:18 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Wed Jul 25, 2012 10:22 pm

All in the best possible taste.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Thu Jul 26, 2012 12:24 pm

"I'm now thinking about saving up for a real one..."

Gideon will make sure the bank will assist Phil, no need to save up. Smile
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Phil Hornby on Thu Jul 26, 2012 3:06 pm

With a price tag for said motor of about £90,000 , my 7 year-old Citroen Picasso may have to suffice for now... Shocked
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Thu Jul 26, 2012 3:52 pm

Don't skimp yourself Phil, if you need a little finacial assistance i'm sure OW
will accommodate you in that respect at a sensible rate of interest. Smile
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Phil Hornby on Thu Jul 26, 2012 4:29 pm

It now seems that the CBI has fallen in behind the Chambers of Commerce to suggest that the negative growth figures are flawed. Of course they are - to suggest otherwise is far too embarrassing for the Tory Bottom-Kissers who are being lined up daily to rewrite the inconvenient facts.

Tomorrow the Daily Mail and The Sun will be informing us that the true figures really show a 7% growth , despite the Government's wretched luck of :too much sun/ rain/ days in the week / foreigners in the country/ red tape/bureaucracy /European Directives/ LibDem interference/ the Olympics/ George Osborne as Chancellor etc etc.

Truly, there are times when it would be easier to believe the likes of Robert Mugabe then the Tory Machine's grovelling apologists...

( Note to blueturando : take an aspirin with a warm drink and lie down in a dark room if coming into contact with this posting ) Very Happy
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Thu Jul 26, 2012 5:38 pm

ECB will act to save euro, says Mario Draghi
26 July 2012


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18998083


Nothing to see here, move along please. Keep moving. The sun is shining and everything is alright.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Thu Jul 26, 2012 5:46 pm

Cameron is now begging Europeans to "please, please" invest here in the UK.
Is this desperation on his part I ask? or perhaps it's just a blind to let us know he is trying to do his best for growth, when he actually couldn't care a toss as long as he does more damage to the working man than his Witch of a soya mother Thatcher had done.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Thu Jul 26, 2012 7:23 pm

"Cameron is now begging Europeans to "please, please" invest here in the UK. "

To be fair, what else can he say? British Companies are holding £14 billion in CASH, waiting to see who the next Chancellor of the Exchequer is going to be in order to make some responsible investment decisions.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Sat Jul 28, 2012 9:41 am

Cameron has said "the economy will steadily improve" Ha ha hah!!!.

The pompous ass and Gideon are puffing out their chests, (even though the recovery figs are as bad as they can get), because of ONE agency S&Poor's reporting that the Uk in their opinion retains it's AAA rating. This is contrary to other rating agencies opinions, Fitch and Moody's.

Standard & Poor's (S&P) said the UK Government had the ability to "respond rapidly" to economic challenges as it confirmed both the rating and the country's "stable" outlook. The move comes after rival agencies Fitch and Moody's put the UK on negative outlook.
Who is right on this? To me it is obvious in view of the following warning by S&P together with the negative opinions of the other two agencies that S&P's rash inititial statement, latched upon by the Tory media/press and indeed Cameron and Gideon is wrong and is helping the two tyrants with their Tory destruction policies.

But the picture was not perfect as S&P warned the Chancellor's tough spending cuts would "drag" on the economy, while household spending will be dampened by sluggish wage growth, a fragile labour and housing market and high private sector debt.
How contradictory was that? Perhaps Cameron has given the head of S&P a backhander that went wrong in the end. Rolling Eyes
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Sat Jul 28, 2012 1:07 pm

The Ratings Agencies do not have an unblemished record. It was found in 2008 that they had been taking fees from US Banks for producing ratings not totally corresponding to a dispassionate view of a particular stock.

In a similar way to Opinion Polls, there is no substitute for the real thing, so a forecast Triple-A rating is little more than an informed guess by people who are paid to know what they are talking about, but may well be overtaken by actual events on the ground.

A number of Global Economists are pleased to have the GBP in there as a "safe-haven" investment currency in addition to the US$, Yen, Chinese Remnimbi, Swiss Franc and Eurodeutschmark ("Euro" for short).
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Sat Jul 28, 2012 1:26 pm

"The Ratings Agencies do not have an unblemished record."

Too true OW, in this case though their sudden rush to suggest the UK AAA ratings are sound,giving Ossy and Dave some unjustified credibility, when in the next breath they make a stark warning to the government which seems to contradict their initial effort of everything is fine and rosey.

It is the headlines that Cameron pounces on to puff out his chest when those that read no futher are left with the wrong idea that all is well.
Bearing in mind also that the other two agencies think differently.

Can any of these bodies get it right, that Lagarde IMF bird gets it all wrong in her speech and in doing so benefits the Tory tyrants political situation.
Something is amiss here, are they all up Cameron's ar5e? and if so why?

Perhaps I'm just and old cynic. Surprised
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:57 am

I see the Daily rag has pounced upon the S&P's Triple-A rating.



"George Osborne has hailed confirmation of Britain's gold-plated AAA credit rating by a key agency.
The Chancellor said the verdict from Standard & Poor's showed the 'world has confidence' in the coalition's economic policies." Ha ha ha joke!!!!!

The gullible readers will now be taken in hook line and sinker.



http://www.dailymail.co.uk
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 12:17 am

Mel wrote:I see the Daily rag has pounced upon the S&P's Triple-A rating.



"George Osborne has hailed confirmation of Britain's gold-plated AAA credit rating by a key agency.
The Chancellor said the verdict from Standard & Poor's showed the 'world has confidence' in the coalition's economic policies." Ha ha ha joke!!!!!

The gullible readers will now be taken in hook line and sinker.



http://www.dailymail.co.uk

The latest public sector borrowing data shows that the UK budget deficit is widening once more. Indeed despite a series of accounting adjustments which obscure the true picture, it is clear that the underlying trend is also towards rising, not falling deficits.
The Office for National Statistics reports that the June public sector borrowing total was £14.4 billion, £500 million higher than in the corresponding month in 2011. However monthly data are erratic and subject to significant revision. Taking the data for the first 6 months of this year as a whole is more meaningful and shows that the deficit over that period is £37.3 billion.

But this total is flattered by the strange decision relating to the acquisition of the Royal Mail Pension funds ahead of planned privatisation. In effect the government has decided to include the assets of this fund, but not its much greater pension liabilities in its own accounts. This and another smaller transaction lowered government borrowing by £30.3 billion. The underlying deficit, excluding these transactions is therefore £67.6 billion in the first 6 months of this year.

This compares to a deficit of £60.5billion in the first 6 months of 2011. The deficit is rising, not falling.

This deterioration in the deficit places British government finances in a growing band of European economies where sharp cuts in government spending are leading to economic contraction, which in turn produces widening deficits.

This should come as no surprise. Spending cuts by government will only lead to a further decline in private investment, which is at the root of this crisis. The reason this logic has taken some time to work through in Britain is due to a number of factors. These are primarily the zig-zag in government policy, which initially saw a very modest increase in government investment under Labour and so reduced the deficit. This was compounded by the uniquely high level of inflation during the British slump, which eroded the real value of all government spending.

I have said this before that the very moderate increase in government investment from the 2009 Budget under Labour was the catalyst for a modest economic recovery. Because of the increase in government spending (including allowing welfare payments to rise automatically as unemployment and poverty increased) the Treasury forecast that the deficit would rise to £178 billion in the following financial year. In the event, the deficit began to decline and was £158 billion for the financial year.

In addition, the effects of economic growth are felt on both sides of government accounts. Expenditure is lower than it would have been because more are in work and the benefits bill falls. Revenues are higher because incomes, profits and consumption all raise the level of tax revenues.

It is widely accepted that government policies have led to economic stagnation. Yet only now has the deficit has started to rise. The British economy has grown by just 0.5% in the two years since the Coalition came to office. But in nominal terms – ie before taking account of inflation – the GDP has increased by 6.1%. This surge in inflation during a slump is highly unusual, placing Britain on a par with countries such as Iceland. Britain has incredible shrinking economy when measured in international currency terms.

Domestically this is reflected in a surge in inflation. While severely denting the purchasing power of all those on fixed or low-growth incomes, the fiscal effect was to increase nominal government revenues by £56 Billion over the last 2 years. This compares to annualised nominal growth in GDP of £88 billion.

The Treasury’s estimate is that every £1 increase in economic activity will lead to 50p increase in government revenues. In fact the increase over the last two years has been 64p (£56 billion of revenues of £88 billion increased output). However, government current spending has also risen by £42.3 billion over the same period. This is an inevitable consequence of the savings (ie refusal to invest) by firms.

This points to the essential fallacy of all ‘austerity’ measures, whether from the Coalition’s frontal assault, or the slightly shallower, slower cuts favoured by current Labour policy. Even nominal growth will largely be reflected in increased government revenues. But spending cuts have the effect of weakening economic activity and so drive up government expenditures.

Even in the narrow terms of reducing the deficit, the only effective prescription is growth. The most effective means of promoting growth, as even the cautious 2009 Labour Budget shows, is for the government to increase investment.

SOME KEY FACTS

UK 2 year gilt yield now at record low after GDP numbers. Low yields are about growth fears not confidence in government's fiscal plan.

UK GDP output is still 4.5% below its peak in the first quarter of 2008, and some 0.3% smaller than May 2010, when the last general election was held.

With the economy having shrunk -1.4% since September, this is more of a double-trough recession than a double-dip

Since 2010 general election, economy has contracted 0.3% - which is basically a Underlying story is of stagnation.

Britain's service sector shrank by 0.1% in the quarter

Industrial output fell by 1.3%

Construction output fell by 5.2%.

Investec chief economist Philip Shaw, who predicts a 0.4% fall in GDP, believes the construction sector has suffered a "disaster" in the last few months, with activity dropping by as much as 6% between April and June.

That would be the third quarter of negative growth in a row. The UK started shrinking in the last three months of 2011, when GDP fell by 0.4%. This was followed by a 0.3% decline in the first quarter of 2012 – which confirmed that Britain is in the dreaded "double-dip" recession.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 12:23 am

Mel wrote:"The Ratings Agencies do not have an unblemished record."

Too true OW, in this case though their sudden rush to suggest the UK AAA ratings are sound,giving Ossy and Dave some unjustified credibility, when in the next breath they make a stark warning to the government which seems to contradict their initial effort of everything is fine and rosey.

It is the headlines that Cameron pounces on to puff out his chest when those that read no futher are left with the wrong idea that all is well.
Bearing in mind also that the other two agencies think differently.

Can any of these bodies get it right, that Lagarde IMF bird gets it all wrong in her speech and in doing so benefits the Tory tyrants political situation.
Something is amiss here, are they all up Cameron's ar5e? and if so why?

Perhaps I'm just and old cynic. Surprised

The state of UK Construction industry and what it would of been like had there not been the Olympic stimulus. The unprecedented curtailment in UK manufacturing with no real government public sector investment is killing them stone dead. The fact is the Olympic's and the construction of the stadium and village has been the only major social contract underway in the last two years.

pubic housing and the building of much needed homes that are cheap for people to rent has collapsed as is intensifying our fall in GDP. As councils capital expenditure has all but come to a standstill. My own economic data show that the drop in construction this year has been 7.8% and will be followed by further falls of 4.3% in 2013 and 0.9% in 2014 with the private housing sector being set to decline in 2013/14.

As Noble Francis economics director at the Construction Products Association has pointed out, the big figures provided by the Chancellor look impressive, but there’s no guarantee that the problem really is simply about securing credit. whats more there is little evidence that there are long queues of would-be expanding firms desperate to get their hands on loans seems far weaker than the political rhetoric might have us imagine, at least when it comes to lending to small and medium enterprises.

we have been told that there is some £40 billion worth of infrastructure projects in the pipeline that looks impressive as Its is meant to. but are still not matched by actions at all. However, the Olympics shows what can be done in the Construction industry if its backed by the Government.

However, up to now its all been political rhetoric with some £375 billion on QE for the banking sector. In fact everything they have done to-date is based on a assumed collapse in either the euro or banking sector.

while the rest of the UK economy has been left with little or no capital expenditure and companies holding back on investment in case there is a collapse in either the banking or euro sectors of our economy. The fact is the banking community with Gideon have been totally responsible for the absolute constraints of our economy and have spent far to much time with concerns of a narrow section of our economy. its this blinkered attitude that lost us our economic growth. its this very throttling back that is damaging Construction industry

instead of the right wing worrying about candle-ends of our economy they should be asking themselves the question. ''in what sense has £375 billion QE helped our economy'' has this right wing blindness to economic reality with it particularly disastrous policy of austerity seen an increase productive investment? I would say NO. its just lead our companies withdraw not only current expenditure but stop all investments.



I am just lost for words over the actions or lack of actions over the state of the UK economy. I have spent hours going over this Governments own economic data and still cannot find an policy for growth or any real management of our economy of note. what's quite extraordinary is that its the bank of England that is now running our economy or large parts of it.

I Never thought i would hear myself say this... but our only economic plan is the stimulus provided by the Olympics.

WHAT DOES THAT TELL US ALL?

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Mon Jul 30, 2012 9:39 am

"... but our only economic plan is the stimulus provided by the Olympics.
"


One does indeed hope that a £Nine Billion investment will produce SOME kind of a dividend.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:15 pm

I really think the reality is Stox that these tyrants are NOT and have never been since the election and indeed before not interested in growth, only one thing in mind, transfer wealth from botton to top starting with the usual high forced unemployment, creating cheap and desperate labour, unecessary cuts in public services to fund tax cuts for the well off. Tory ideology at it's worse.. The message throughout Tory ranks is "carry on with Thatcherism and more.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Mon Jul 30, 2012 5:03 pm

Interesting to speculate how much enthusiasm the British Voter may still have for Thatcherism in 2015.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Mon Jul 30, 2012 5:47 pm

Oh yes, the well off "blue rinse" brigade, still living on their deceased hubands legacies, will never give up on their rusty old Iron, so called lady.

One can see them daily sunning themselves on the virandas of the top hotels in Eastbourne. Rolling Eyes
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 11:10 pm

Mel wrote:I really think the reality is Stox that these tyrants are NOT and have never been since the election and indeed before not interested in growth, only one thing in mind, transfer wealth from botton to top starting with the usual high forced unemployment, creating cheap and desperate labour, unecessary cuts in public services to fund tax cuts for the well off. Tory ideology at it's worse.. The message throughout Tory ranks is "carry on with Thatcherism and more.

You know the sad truth is, I happen to think your dead right Mel. as you are right in saying that this is all about Tory party ideology and nothing to do with modern economics. but the only good news is that its now starting to show up more.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Tue Jul 31, 2012 9:50 am

Stox 16 wrote:

".... is all about Tory party ideology and nothing to do with modern economics. but the only good news is that its now starting to show up more."

I hesitate to say that "modern economics" began with Thatcher, but her attraction to "Reagonomics" made the present situation inevitable. After "Big Bang" in the City of London, it became possible for those with money (or access to money, which is the same thing) to make even more of it. To criticise the Rich for not sharing with the Poor disregards human nature.

Taxation exists to even things out a bit, but if that is overdone we kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. Moderation is the key, and vigorous enforcement of existing Tax Law should be sufficient.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Wed Aug 01, 2012 2:20 am

oftenwrong wrote:
Stox 16 wrote:

".... is all about Tory party ideology and nothing to do with modern economics. but the only good news is that its now starting to show up more."

I hesitate to say that "modern economics" began with Thatcher, but her attraction to "Reagonomics" made the present situation inevitable. After "Big Bang" in the City of London, it became possible for those with money (or access to money, which is the same thing) to make even more of it. To criticise the Rich for not sharing with the Poor disregards human nature.

Taxation exists to even things out a bit, but if that is overdone we kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. Moderation is the key, and vigorous enforcement of existing Tax Law should be sufficient.


Well hesitate no more. as modern economics did start under Maggots time. as you only need to look at the way the city and banking was done to see this.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Thu Aug 09, 2012 3:47 am

Well the old man of Threadneedle Street has once more given us clear evidence that the electronic money creation programme of Quantitative easing totally failed and has lead once more to Bank of England downgrading there growth own forecast to 0% growth for the rest of 2012.

Lest just Stop and take a look at the Bank of England forecasts since this Government took control. If we could call any of them in control of our economy.

G.D.P Growth for forecast set by bank of England at 2.0% 2010
Growth forecast Downgraded for 2nd Time by Bank of England 1.4% August 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 3rd Time by Bank of England 1.2% May 2012
Growth forecast Downgraded for 4th Time by Bank of England 0% August 2012

This has left us with GDP Growth that is now lower than 1930s, 1970s, 1980s 1990s (OBR) and a National Debt has hit £1.03 Trillion for the first Time Jan 2012 (OBR) with a Government Borrowing overshooting by £157 Billion while doing some £375 Billion Quantitative easing. Now what was it that Gideon told us back in 2009/10? O Yes that is it. ’’ Quantitative easing is an admission that the governments economic policy had failed’’ he then went on to state, ’’ Quantitative easing was the last resort of a desperate government when all other policies have failed’’ I now just wonder does this same statement now apply to this banal coalition government I wonder?

So Cameron and Gideon did what about the economy on taking over? O yes they imposed deep public spending cuts and increased VAT and other tax’s in 2010 when UK out put was barely a third of the 7.1% lost during the 2008 world banking crisis. But never mind, as when in April to June 2011 UK growth once more fell to 0.1% and was reported in the media as the worst downturn since WW2 and showed the UK economy had stagnated well before the Euro Zone crisis what did Gideon say?

Yes.. you may of got it, he said in June 2011, ’’ These are disappointing figures but the Coalition Government has made the economy our top priority’’ So I wonder what would he say now that the Bank of England has downgraded there growth forecast from 1.4% in August 2011 to 0% in August 2012? Well Gideon said, ’’ These are disappointing figures but the Coalition Government has made the economy our top priority’’ Well that odd folks as he said this last year? Still I guess he was hopping we would all forget what he said last year. But remember that in July 2011 Gideon argued on the TV that after dropping 0.7% growth in Q2 to just 0.2% one year later that these figures was cause for optimism. He said, ‘’it was positive news that the UK economy is continuing to grow and is creating jobs’’ Still I am sure the right wing run media will talk this all way once more.


So Gideon’s stubborn economic persistence that is the embodiment of everything except economic common sense just goes on . With Gideon still repeating the same excuses in year and year out.

The Bank of England's governor Sir Mervyn King Said:

"The overall outlook for growth is weaker than in May, reflecting downside news in the near term and, in the medium term, the possibility that the weakness in output and productivity growth that we have seen since the financial crisis persists.

Well I would just add this: we could carry on with this so-called economic policy for the next 40 years and still see no fiscal growth worth any note.

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:13 am

Economists discussing yesterday's comments from Mervyn King confirm that the government will HAVE to borrow £5.5billion in the next year just to compensate for their failure to grow the economy. Which is precisely what Gideon has been trumpetting for the last two years that he would not do.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by sickchip on Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:34 pm

If Mervyn is predicting zero growth you can bet it's going to be a lot lot lot worse than that.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Fri Aug 10, 2012 4:37 am

oftenwrong wrote:Economists discussing yesterday's comments from Mervyn King confirm that the government will HAVE to borrow £5.5billion in the next year just to compensate for their failure to grow the economy. Which is precisely what Gideon has been trumpetting for the last two years that he would not do.

I have believe he will have to borrow more than that OW.... But your dead right he has been saying this for two whole years. but then he has also spent a great deal of time moving a the national debt around the economy while push a great deal of debt down the road. in fact he could get a job as a Pickfords removal man.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Fri Aug 10, 2012 4:52 am

sickchip wrote:If Mervyn is predicting zero growth you can bet it's going to be a lot lot lot worse than that.


Good god yes it will be far worse that what Mervyn is predicting. as everyone one of Mervyn's Growth forecast have been way out. this is without Gideon adding to this with his cuts. as the right wing have been calling for some 700,000 public sector job cut, all this will do is up benefit payment and cut our tax take. you should soon seen a nice big fall in exports too?

Sickchip this guy could not run a bar let alone the UK economy. but then we both already know that...... yes?
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:45 am

Unemployment rate Falls but so does UK Exports

Woodrow Wilson was asked what his views where on Conservatism? He said ’’ Conservatism is the policy of making No change and consult your grandmother when in doubt’’ Now.. he said this without him even knowing Gideon, However, this current Tory party economic circular policy is like some sort of 1980s right wing restoration project while having no economic management to run it.

So what is going on now or not? Well in April 2O12 the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested the economy failed to achieve any growth in the first three months of the year, when the trade deficit on goods and services rose to £3.4bn in February from £2.5bn – far worse than forecasts of an improvement to £2bn. With more Concerns about Britain's economic prospects while showing the scale of weakness in UK exports to non-European markets, which are widely considered the UK's best hope for growth. In fact the ONS data has shown the UK Exports of goods to non-EU countries fell by 8.8% up till April 2012.

So was anyone really surprised when the governor of the Bank of England, Sir Mervyn King slashed their UK growth forecast for 2012 from 0.8% to 0% for the rest this year? Well as it happens yes… Gideon was surprised by this downgrade of the UK growth forecast for the 4th time while expressing his unequivocal confidence in his own economic policy while blaming and denouncing the nasty Europeans for all his economic woes while he fails to explain why UK Exports of goods to non-EU countries fell by 8.8% up till April 2012? Still its easy to over look little things like this when you are spending so much time holding fund raising dinners for the national Tory party election fund.

Still never mind as UK inflation is under control?…. Well it was if you believed the right wing or this government, till that nasty ONS pops up showing the retail price index (RPI) that measures inflation was 3.2% in the year to July. While inflation of 2.6% in July still outpacing pay rises with ONS figures showing that total pay rose by 1.6% in the three months to June from a year earlier. Regular pay, excluding bonuses, was up 1.8%. All of this is just the benchmark rate used to calculate the rise in train fairs in January 2013 for one and other economic rates for next year. Still as we all know by now Cameron and Gideon are always willing to share our economic pain. So they rush out the following statement. ’’ This Government would press ahead with our above inflation increases in rail passengers fares’’ as Ministers have told train companies to raise prices by 3% points above the RPI next January and by the same in January 2014 and by 1% above RPI in 2015. With the Operators raising fares by a further 5% point on the same rotes as long as the increase is offset by cuts.

Still I should think that even the right wingers who seems to only have a small rudimentary knowledge of Economic matters should spot this has nothing to do with the state of the Euro? As any rational calculation should draw even a ideological driven right winger to the strategic economic view that this is not a very smart moving given the very fact that there own government economic data show there economy with no GDP growth for 2012, but maybe not. As the economic dominoes will fall where this government economic policy blows them and hiding behind the Euro will just not wash at all. As its not the Euro that is driving up rail fare’s or stacking up new inflation pressures in 2014 by this government is it? Mind you for most right wingers economics or the understanding of it, is a bit like Naponleon reading tit bits. As they both fail to understand what they are reading.

So now comes the news that the number of UK People out of work has fallen to its lowest level in almost a year, with the decline partly due to jobs created by the London Olympics as well as an increase in self- and part-time employment. So is anyone surprised by this ONS data? But just in case I have over looked something lets take a deeper look at these figures today.

Well the internationally recognised International Labour Organisation measures Unemployment shows a fall of 46,000 in the three months to June to 2.56m. while according to the Office for National Statistics, to 8%, the lowest rate since the three months to July 2011 while in London, the number of people out of work fell by 42,000, which would suggested that some of the improvement in the jobs market was due to the Olympic Games. So I its fair to say the capital accounted for half the fall and for half the new jobs created between April and June – 99,000 out of a total of 201,000 across the UK.

So this data shows this rise in employment, to 29.476m, was the biggest quarterly increase since the spring of 2010 and the highest level of employment since 2008. But Given the state of the rest of the UK economy I would not be jumping up and down at all at this point. As this increase in self- and part-time employment is the Key figure in this data as it quite clearly suggests that many UK companies are replacing full time employees with either part time employees or sub-contracting work out that is clearly leading to the increase in self-Employed. So in other words companies have no confidence in the economy while operating a quick removal policy of employees if things get worse.

So we are left with a government economic policy that has failed too of grasped the implications of there own economic actions or decision while stacking up more inflation pressures within the economy in 2013/14, while overseeing a economy with exports falling and productivity effectiveness crashing while still having no economic growth policy of note and government borrowing set to top £158 billion for 2012. However, we so still have Gideon with his exaggerated economic claims with his infectious economic myopia shared by the rest of the Tory party and Lib/Dem’s in government while the UK economy goes around in smaller and smaller economic circles.
















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The Icelandic Alternative

Post by Bernadette on Mon Sep 24, 2012 1:07 pm

Recently Steingrímur Sigfússon, an Icelandic government Minister, talked about Iceland’s response to the financial crash of 2008.

"The single outstanding factor is our commitment to preserve the Icelandic welfare system through this, and try to distribute the burden of the crisis as socially justly as possible.

"The economy is now picking nicely up, we are experiencing growth for the second year in a row, a relatively handsome three per cent plus, because we managed to keep everyone active and include the lower-income groups as active consumers and participants in the economy.

"In return of course, those with wealth have to contribute more."

Here in the UK our government has done the opposite, and unsurprisingly driven us further into recession. Instead of now realising it’s not working and changing course, politicians like Liam Fox are calling for tax cuts, to be funded by more draconian welfare cuts.

In Iceland, responsibility for the financial crisis was placed firmly at the feet of those who caused it. Bankers, civil servants and government ministers have been treated as suspected criminals, investigated, and when found guilty, jailed.

Banks that failed were nationalised, and household debts deemed unmanageable were written off.

Here in the UK there has been a lot of huffing and puffing, but the bankers have been let off the hook. Unless you count stripping Fred Goodwin of his knighthood. That’s about as harsh as it gets for a banker in the UK.

Instead, our government has put most of the blame for our problems on the poorest and weakest members of society, punishing them accordingly. The ‘undeserving poor’, the scroungers, the sick and disabled people who Atos say could work but won’t, the Remploy workers who, in Iain Duncan Smith’s view, ‘sit around drinking coffee all day’. The less power you have to fight back, it seems, the more blame this government will heap upon you, the more it will punish you.

But what about those economic arbiters the Ratings Agencies, which George Osborne has always been so eager to placate? When the Chancellor embarked on his path of austerity he cited the approval of the Ratings Agencies as vital to our recovery, and impossible to achieve if we didn’t follow the path of austerity. In February Bloomberg reported:

"Fitch Ratings last week raised Iceland to investment grade, with a stable outlook, and said the island’s “unorthodox crisis policy response has succeeded.”

Next time a politician says that the destructive course we are now on is the only course, that there is no alternative, think of Iceland, and its apparently bright future.

On October 20th the TUC is organising a march ‘For a Future That Works’. There is also talk of a possible General Strike. This has been met with outrage from predictable quarters, alleging that it would be the height of irresponsibility. But if the country is on a course that can only lead to economic decline, social injustice and ever-increasing human misery, a General Strike to force a change of course could be the most responsible act of all.

Bernadette Meaden

This article first appeared on the Ekklesia website http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/node/17066
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Mon Sep 24, 2012 2:26 pm

It's all there for those who wish to see it, but how likely are misogynists Cameron and Osborne to take direction from a female Prime Minister of Iceland?



Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Phil Hornby on Mon Sep 24, 2012 4:01 pm

(guessimold.wordpress.com)

Nah, mate - that's that Jenny Eclair you've got there... Very Happy
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Mon Sep 24, 2012 7:31 pm

The Colonel's Lady
and Rosie O'Grady
are sisters, under the skin.

Further reading on Jenny Eclair: http://extra.shu.ac.uk/wpw/femprac/liladhar.htm
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Phil Hornby on Mon Sep 24, 2012 7:39 pm

Do you like Kipling...? Very Happy
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Mon Sep 24, 2012 7:44 pm

I don't know, I've never kippled.


(There's a cheque in the post, thanks.)

Remember you saw it here first - the only comedy duo with two straight-men.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by witchfinder on Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:21 pm

Congratulations to French president "Francois Hollande" who today announced the details of the 2013 budget.

Unlike the coalition government in this country, the French have decided that the bulk of the deficit will be paid off by hitting the biggest companies, the wealthiest people, largest income earners and banks, whilst the lower and middle income earners have been spared.

This is called FAIRNESS Mr Cameron
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Fri Sep 28, 2012 11:19 pm

".... the French have decided that the bulk of the deficit will be paid off by hitting the biggest companies, the wealthiest people, largest income earners and banks...."

The French Revolution of 1789 had one result which may now be repeated. Britain, the only European country to provide the émigrés with assistance, was unique as a host nation because the British had nothing political to gain from offering their support to Les Aristos.

Will 2012 be different?
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by sickchip on Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:40 am

Phil Hornby wrote:Do you like Kipling...? Very Happy

I am partial to a cherry bakewell and a country slice - but have an aversion to the battenburg.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by boatlady on Sat Sep 29, 2012 11:19 am

Wondering why the (male) response to the very interesting posting by Bernadette on the Icelandic alternative has been a completely irrelevant bit on Jenny Eclair, a joke or two and otherwise ignoring this excellent example.
Are we feeling a little uncomfortable with the notion of a woman in power? Especially when she is leading an apparently successful economic recovery using only measures dictated by common-sense?
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Sat Sep 29, 2012 11:31 am

boatlady wrote:Wondering why the (male) response to the very interesting posting by Bernadette on the Icelandic alternative has been a completely irrelevant bit on Jenny Eclair, a joke or two and otherwise ignoring this excellent example.
Are we feeling a little uncomfortable with the notion of a woman in power? Especially when she is leading an apparently successful economic recovery using only measures dictated by common-sense?

(Reminder)
by oftenwrong on Mon Sep 24, 2012 2:26 pm

It's all there for those who wish to see it, but how likely are misogynists Cameron and Osborne to take direction from a female Prime Minister of Iceland, Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir?
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

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