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Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

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Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Tue Feb 14, 2012 2:12 am

First topic message reminder :

Adding in new economic data shows that the so-called Austerity economic policy alone does not work. It's clear too me that its totally unsustainable as it destroys countries competiveness while draining confidence within business while driving down not only living standers that in turn shrinks demand. Do you believe the Tories will stick with there only economic policy up-to the next GE? if they do, I happen to believe most people will call time on the Tory party.





Growth Forecast downgraded for the Fifth time by (OBR in November 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 2nd Time by Bank of England 1.4% August 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 3rd Time to 1.7% (Budget 2011)
Growth forecast Downgraded for 3rd Time to by Ernst & Young from1.7% to 0.9% Jan 2012
Growth forecast Downgraded for 2nd Time to by CBI to 1.3% July 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 4th Time to by CBI to 1.2% Sept 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 4th Time to by CBI to 0.9% Feb 2012
Growth forecast Downgraded for 3rd Time to by I.M.F to 1.3% July 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 4th Time to by I.M.F to 0.6% Jan 2012
Growth forecast in the Tory budget down for a 3rd time to 1.7% (Budget 2011
Growth forecast in the City as low as 1.2% 2011
Disposable income has seen its Sharpest fall in 30 years or 1980s (ONS)
Annual Earnings Growth remains at 1.9% in February 2012
GDP The last cycle of robust growth in potential output of 2.9% was 1997 to 2006 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
GDP when the Tory-Liberal coalition come to power ,the UK was growing at an annual rate of 4% (OBR)
GDP sluggish at just 0.5% for April 2011 (OBR)
GDP City Growth forecast for 2012 are 0.3% to 0.4% (FT Sept 2011)
GDP Growth for forecast set by bank of England at 2.0% 2010
GDP Contracted by 0.5% in the Q4 in 2010 (OBR)
GDP is 0.8% lower than in November 2010 (OBR)
GDP IS 0.2% lower than MARCH 2011 (OBR)
GDP Growth Contracted by 0.5% Q4 2010 (OBR)
GDP Growth April 2011 was Q1 0.5% (OBR)
GDP Growth July 2011 was just Q2 0.2% (OBR)
GDP Growth starts Jan Q1 2012 at just 0.2% (OBR)
GDP Growth December 2011 Contracted by 0.2% Q4 (OBR)
GDP April's figures have just clawed back last years 0.5% contraction in 2010 (OBR)
GDP is 1.1% lower than the OBR thought it would be in Sept 2010 (OBR)
GDP Growth is now lower than 1930s, 1970s, 1980s 1990s (OBR)
GDP UK is 3.6% blow its pre-financial crisis 2008 (H.M.Trasury)
National Debt hits £1.03 Trillion for the first Time Jan 2012 (OBR)
National Debt actual debt after repurchase by Bank of England is £650 Billion (Guardian on B of E figures)
National Debt Coalition & Bank of England QE for 2011 was £75 billion (OBR/Bank of England)
National Debt Coalition & Bank of England QE for 2012 was £50 billion (OBR/Bank of England)
National Debt total Quantitative Easing is £325 Billion in February 2012 (OBR/Bank of England)
National Debt private + public sector debt totals some 500% 2011 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
National Debt Tory Party forecast National debt will fall by just £54 Billion by 2015 (Tory party website)
UK Economic Decline is two and half times that of the entire Euro zone (ONS & H.M.Trasury) 2011
UK Economic Decline is 77% of the EU’s decline for 2011 (H.M.Trasury)
UK Economy shrank by 5.0% in 2009 the biggest calendar year fall since 1921 ( NIE)
UK Economy shrank by 6.3% in 2011 the biggest calendar year fall on record by October 2011 ( NIE)
UK Pound exchange rate has fallen by 21.0% against the Dollar 2011 (H.M.Trasury)
UK lose market share accelerated from 2008 to 2010. (Oxford Economic )
Government Borrowing Tory-Liberal coalition come to power stated an additional £111 Billion 2009 (OBR)
Government Borrowing Net borrowing was just £7.3 Billion in 2010 (H.M.Trasury)
Government Borrowing forecast up by £54 Billion (Budget 2011)
Government Borrowing overshot in Q4 by £127 Billion (OBR)
Government Borrowing overshot in Jan 2012 by £157 Billion (ONS)
Government Borrowing topped the £10 billion by just Feb 2011 (OBR)
Government Borrowing to be £10 billion higher every year from 2012 (OBR)
Government Borrowing in Jan 2012 was £13.7 billion for December 2011 overshooting (OBR)
Private Pension deficit up from £24.5 Billion to £31.7 Billion by Sept 2011 (ONS)
Private Pension Deficit £158 billion December 2011 (ONS)
Private Pension deficit £255.2 form £222 billion in Jan 2012 (N.M.A & ONS)
UK 10 Year bonds, the Historical high of 12.84% set in April 1990 (H.M.Trasury)
UK 10 year Bonds, Record low of 1.97% set in Jan 2012 (H.M.Trasury)
UK 10 Year Bonds, Yields decline by 1.47% from 1989 to 2012 (H.M.Trasury)
UK 10 Year Bonds, averaged 6.28% (H.M.Trasury)
Unemployment up to record 17 year high (ONS)
Unemployment record was set in 1981 at 2.6 million or 9.8% of the Workforce
Unemployment for woman rose for the 10th month in a row March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment increased by 20,000 the highest three month figure since Jan 1997 (ONS)
Unemployment is now 7.7% of economically active population March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment forecast in the budget set to rise to 8.1% in 2012 (Budget 2011)
Unemployment is was2.6 million in March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment is now 2.8 million in December 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment Claimants increased by 12,400 in March 2011 to April 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment Woman Claimants increased by 9,300 to 474,400 in March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment Men Claimants increased by 3,100 to 994,200 in March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment 16-24 hit 1.043 million in Q3, the highest since records began in 1992. 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment benefit payments rose by 1,200 to 1.6 million by December 2012 (ONS)
Unemployment benefit payments up to 1980s levels (ONS)
Business failures in 2010 was 23,000 (ONS)
Business failures in 2011 was 20,900 or 6.5% (ONS)
Bankers Bonus for £14 billion for 2011 (FT & Guardian & BBC)
Manufacturing was flat Feb 2011 (ONS)
Manufacturing production out put 1.5% decline in April 2011 (ONS)
Manufacturing touted as the engine of the economy fall by 0.3% in July 2011 (ONS)
Manufacturing jobless in Q4 2011 to Jan 2012 was up to 395,000
Manufacturing production Cable & Wireless Communication slumped nearly 17% in 2011 (FT)
BDOs output index dropped from Decembers 91.4% to February 2012 to 91.2%
Exports fell in Jan 2011 (HMCR)
Exports Vs Imports increased by 14.7% in October 2011 (HMCR)
Factory gate prices rose 0.9% between February & March 2011 (ONS)
Factory gate prices rose at an annual rate of 5.3% in May 2011 (ONS)
Factory gate prices in December 2011 to 4.8% (ONS)
Factory gate prices fell in January 2012 to 4.1% (ONS)
Factory gate Producers input price inflation in January 2012 is 7% (ONS)
Mortgage & Credit card debt will soar to £2,126 billion by 2015 (ONS)
Mortgage debt now accounts is around £21,000 per person April 2011 (ONS)
Home repossessions peak set in 1991 at 19,000 homes (council of mortgage lenders)
Home repossession forecast to rise to 45,000 in 2012 (council of mortgage lenders )
Construction industry suffered a 0.5% fall in output from November to January 2012 (ONS)
North sea Oil Tax up by £2 Billion for 2011, with HMCR taking 88% in Tax (ONS)
The Worst squeeze on living standards for 90 years
Consumer spending accounts for 65% of the UK economy April 2011 (OMS)
Consumer spending shows the biggest fell in total sales since the survey began in 1995 (KPMG)
Consumer spending has fallen by 1.7% for four consecutive Q in 2011. (ONS)
Personal Spending shows it first drop in personal spending power since the Thatcher slump in 1980s (KMPG)
Petrol down by 1p with VAT up by 2% in the Budget 2011
Petrol prices average increased by 52% up to March 2010
Food Prices rose 7.4% in the biggest rise since 2009 (ONS)
Food Prices rising at 4.9% rising faster than any other OECD in Jan 2012 member (UBS & OECD)
CPI Inflation increase to 3.3% December 2010 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
CPI has put the cost of living double its target from 4% in Jan 2011 to 4.4% in April 2011 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
CPI September 2011 rises by 5.2% (ONS)
CPI October 2011 fall by just 0.2% to 5.0% (ONS)
CPI January 2012 fell to 4.8% from 5.0% (Bank of England)
RPI has gone from 5.1% to 5.5% the highest since 1991 (ONS)
RPI Jan 2011 leapt to CPI 4% from 3.7% with Market Oracle putting real inflation at 6.6% 2012 .
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by witchfinder on Sun May 20, 2012 10:52 am

The German reunification problem was a totaly different scenario to the crisis we face now, mainly because it was a German problem and did not affect anyone else.

If the whole of Europe follows austerity, then no one purchases anything, no businesses expand and industry becomes either stagnant or shrinks, the level of unemployment goes up and no one can sell anything.

I am afraid that Mr Obama has shown the way, and Mr Hollande will follow the successful path that America has taken - a combination of deficit reduction and investment to encourage growth, hence the reason why the US well on the road to recovery whilst we are back in recession.


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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Sun May 20, 2012 12:14 pm

Austerity doesn't seem to be affecting the new British quango set up with taxpayers' money to create a second high-speed rail link between London and Birmingham. Despite the fact that HS2 has been downgraded by the Queen's Speech, the Organisers are still at full speed spinning their web.

The HS2 quango received £42M last year and estimated staff costs will reach £2.5million when all the intended PR spin-doctors have been recruited.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Mon May 21, 2012 12:31 am

witchfinder wrote:The German reunification problem was a totaly different scenario to the crisis we face now, mainly because it was a German problem and did not affect anyone else.

If the whole of Europe follows austerity, then no one purchases anything, no businesses expand and industry becomes either stagnant or shrinks, the level of unemployment goes up and no one can sell anything.

I am afraid that Mr Obama has shown the way, and Mr Hollande will follow the successful path that America has taken - a combination of deficit reduction and investment to encourage growth, hence the reason why the US well on the road to recovery whilst we are back in recession.


Excellent post Witchy and spot on too. in fact its amazing too now hear Cameron now after two whole years now tell everyone else they must have a growth policy. unless you are him. then you only need austerity. so its right for Europe and the US economies who are not have a double dip recession but.. not for the UK who are? so how in interesting that its now good economics too get therm to have a fiscal growth policy while we have a government that does not believe in it. sound to me just like one more economic Tory sermon too me... from someone who believes he is talking on behalf of some right wing righteous economic think tank group. what a lot of utter cobblers this guy is witchy
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Mon May 21, 2012 12:34 am

oftenwrong wrote:Austerity doesn't seem to be affecting the new British quango set up with taxpayers' money to create a second high-speed rail link between London and Birmingham. Despite the fact that HS2 has been downgraded by the Queen's Speech, the Organisers are still at full speed spinning their web.

The HS2 quango received £42M last year and estimated staff costs will reach £2.5million when all the intended PR spin-doctors have been recruited.

How very true Often.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Mon May 21, 2012 1:37 am

tlttf wrote:The Germans are great believers in using austerity as a means to lower debts and expand. Irrespective of what any economist says the Germans went through it all when the Berlin wall came down and the East reunited with the West, wages went down, costs went up and the Germans were taxed higher, pension were frozen and they had to work longer. It took them 10 years of austerity to finally arrive as the powerhouse of Europe. Understandable that they see it from a different angle to the French and Greeks.

And what is the real economic reason? yes that is it... Germans run a balanced economy that is why they been slow to just have austerity. as they have invested in the manufacturing and its industrial base. if you're an engineer in job your a god, if your working in the financial sector in Germany your 2nd class. Did Germany buy into the Maggot economic wet dream? no... Not one bit of it

They just come over here too buy up the very industrial base that Maggot said we did not need any more. However, that we now import back into the UK every month. as for Greece she has never had a strong industrial base. tittf you really do need to read up on economics mate instead of all this right wing economic cobblers that has failed to work for years. I know you do not like the real fact that Maggots wet economic dream has been shown to have failed. but sorry to say there is little comfort I can give you over this hard economic fact of History.


But I would never compare Germany's last 30 years of economic history with the Maggot 30 year plan. as its very one sided. as there manufacturing and investment in there industrial base was masterpiece of economic government planning, I even saw German engineers in the North East of England buying up whole engineering factories and moving them to German. even saw they by a great big ship spraying company that now sprays up to 90% of European shipping that the then Tory government said was old hat and would need investment. it was moved to German in 1985 and was backed with £1.5 million pounds in UK money and last year turned in profits of over £9.5 million a year and has done for all of the 1990s to this very day. I also saw with my very own eyes German companies in 1989 coming to the UK in Maggots time in office and buying up four of the worlds top toolmaker companies and ship the lot to Germany. today these very companies that Maggot said where old hat now export some 56% of all UK Tooling for manufacturing. one tool for manufacturing of plastic molds will set you back anything from £750,000 to over £1.2 million pounds. but all this was old hat to the Tory party back then. so all of this just puts us to shame and what's more we are paying the price of a city finance based economy that was her dream. in fact Labour only real great mistake in the last 13 years was not to re-balance the whole UK economy and end this crazy economic policy of having all your eggs in one basket.

The bottom line is Maggot put UK manufacturing up for sale and we have never got it back. forget all these right wing cobblers about selling of old nationalised industries.. as that does not wash with me one little bit. as many UK manufacturing companies where sold off with out any thought of what they where at all. as i was there and saw it all.

ITS WAS THE GREAT SALE OF UK MANUFACTURING FROM 1997 TO 1997 IN THE WHOLE HISTORY OF THE UK. AND GERMANY HAS NEVER LOOK BACK SINCE

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Mon May 21, 2012 12:17 pm

From comments in the Guardian, which I thought were very apt.----



"Austerity
1. Cuts in police numbers, and crime detection outsourced to GS4.
2. Cuts in NHS budget, and health services privatised.
3. Cuts in legal aid.
4. Cut in social housing budget and cuts to housing benefit.
5. Cuts in employment protection.
6. Cuts in disability benefits.
7. Cuts in council social care budgets.
8. Cuts in regional aid.
9. Cuts in Sure Start and school funding.
10. Cuts in university funding.
11. Cuts in budgets for parks, libraries, and youth services.
12. Cuts in public transport grant.
13. Cut in top rate of tax.

Growth
1. Growth in crime and in the number of criminals not getting caught.
2. Growth in waiting lists, untreated illnesses, health inequalities, and of course tumours.
3. Growth in miscarriages of justice, the wrong people getting locked up for life, and the real offenders sitting at home laughing.
4. Growth in homelessness, overcrowding, and children being ripped from their schools and shipped up north.
5. Growth in workplace harassment, victimisation, discrimination, unfair dismissals, low morale, and bosses nicknamed Gradgrind.
6. Growth in number of sick and disabled people unable to live a normal life.
7. Growth in number of weeks during which elderly and isolated see no one.
8. Growth in the North-South divide.
9. Growth in social immobility, leaking school roofs, and mould.
10. Growth in number of Tory absurd claims that go unchallenged.
11. Growth in weeds, illiteracy, and disaffected young people roaming the streets.
12. Growth in congestion, pollution, and untreated illness (see 2 above).
13. Growth in number of rich Tory donors."

That just about sums up the governments lack of interest in growth and determination to put austerity as the total priority for it's own Tory ends.

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Mon May 21, 2012 3:01 pm

[quote="Stox 16
... Germans run a balanced economy that is why they been slow to just have austerity.... [quote]

Margaret Thatcher was described as a "Radical Prime Minister" because she had no concern for the results of her actions. She was determined to destroy any power-base from which the Trade Unions and political opposition could threaten the stability of her Government. Forced by her cabinet colleagues to think of alternatives, she blithely announced that The City of London would take up the slack. (Repeated recently when Camoron-Clegg-Osborne claimed that the Private Sector must take up the slack of providing employment for those sacked from Public jobs.)
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Mon May 21, 2012 3:11 pm

Plenty of "slack" but no uptake as expected and yet promised without any real coviction. All makes good for Tory ideology. The more unemloyed the more cheap labour created and all for the sake of greed and yet even more profit for the few. Same old Tories, dont they just love unemployment?
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by blueturando on Mon May 21, 2012 3:18 pm

You have to get with the plan people.......

The Tories will only be in office until 2015, so they are going make sure they leave the economy in the sh*t just as Labour always do when they get booted out of government. So it will be a case of 'there you go Labour, see how you deal with someone elses mess for a change'.

Unfortunately we are all the losers no matter who is in power

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Mon May 21, 2012 3:26 pm

What can you mean? Surely Messrs. Cameron and Osborne's only concern is for the welfare of the People.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by blueturando on Mon May 21, 2012 3:35 pm

What can you mean? Surely Messrs. Cameron and Osborne's only concern is for the welfare of the People

Lol....Only a small percentage of them and I think we all know who they are

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Mon May 21, 2012 4:35 pm

blue wrote " 'there you go Labour, see how you deal with someone elses mess for a change'."

Nothing to do with the problem that was blamed upon Labour such as the credit crunch/global crisis then blue?

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by bobby on Mon May 21, 2012 4:58 pm

Blue
You keep harping on as to what Ed Miliband’s Labour Government is going to do. Perhaps you might inform me as to what deceit he has been involved in. I know you can give us list after list of Coalition deceit, but as we all know only too well what it is, will you please furnish us with a list of Ed Miliband’s untruth’s. I mean there must be loads of them judging by the way you keep telling us what he will do “3 years on” and what your assumptions are based on.

As I suggested perhaps you should forget about politics and send some time betting on the Gee-Gee’s, wiv your ability to see the future, how could you lose. By the way Blue, if you take my advice, I want a share of the winnings.

Ivan and others have regularly shown evidence of the economy every time your Tories leave it, yet you still come up with the same old, same old. It was Labour wot did it, yet at no occasion have you furnished any evidence, isn’t it about time you did, rather than try to make it up as you go along.

Why is it you have such a selective view of politics, I mean someone who has had an interest since he was at least 9 years old should be an Expert. Or is it in your case, an Ex being a “has been” and a spert being a “drip under pressure“?
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by blueturando on Tue May 22, 2012 1:16 pm

Why is it you have such a selective view of politics, I mean someone who has had an interest since he was at least 9 years old should be an Expert. Or is it in your case, an Ex being a “has been” and a spert being a “drip under pressure“?.

9 years old??? The first time I took an interest in politics was 1979 what I was 12/13. At our local comp we had a project to research and discuss the upcoming election and the parties involved.
Unfortunately our leftie teacher didn't like the criticism leveled at the Labour Party and much like this forum, refused to recognise some home truths. This is when my interest in politics expanded......took off

I am sure other posters will have different stories on why/how they got interested in politics and it's good that people have an interest no matter what party they support.....Apathy doesn't help anyone.

On the economy......I don't think either party gets it right. You can furnish me with all the ' carefully selected' data you like (New Labour was always very good at moving the data/stats goal posts) I will only go on what I see and here from people in the know (non political) But Labour do love to splash other peoples cash without a care in the world...which is fine if much of the cash was not so easily wasted. In my experience Labours stock answer to any problem is to throw more cash at it and hope the problem goes away.

Before you jump down my throat on the coalition....I know the coalition have got it wrong (95% of people know) I would like to see a cross party approach to save the country, because I do not believe ONE party has the talent or knowledge to get us out of the sh*te.
You know and I know that if Miliband gets into power he will (like the Tories) spend the first 2/3 years of his term blaming the coalition (predecessors) for the economy...and we go round and round in circles.

In all honesty I do not really care which party is in government, just as long as the country and the lives of the population improve. This is why I was quite a fan of Blair in his first few years. I thought he did a great job as PM.....100 times better than the last few years of that Tory administration and this is coming from a Tory.
So this is why I am coming down on miliband...I don't see or believe that he would be a strong leader and it seems a great deal of the population agree. Labour maybe riding high in the polls, but Miliband approval rating is quite dismal......If Labour does get back in I don't want to see another 5 years of F*ck ups....I mean who does?
I cannot see in what direction Miliband is taking the Labour party...is he a Blair mark 2 or a Michael Foot. He doesn't seem to have any ideas, nothing that would inspire people like Blair did. He looks and sounds like Camerons nerdy little brother

Now I admire your (and Ivans) loyalty to Labour no matter what, but you've got to ask yourselves...Is Miliband strong enough to beat the Tories when it comes to a GE? I don't think he is. If you think he is, then fine...we will see in 2015
Maybe a stronger leader would be able to get Labour back on the right track....answers on a postcard please

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by tlttf on Tue May 22, 2012 3:22 pm

How about a leader that aspires to Labour traditions blue, rather than be a weak tory, look how happy Prescott is being able to swan around in an ermine robe. Now that is labour aspiration!

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by blueturando on Tue May 22, 2012 3:52 pm

Well there lies the problem TLTTF......For a Tory like me to like Blair (early years) says more about the current Labour Party than it does me. Labour has moved inch by inch to the centre ground, even on more than a few occassions stumbling over to the right.
The traditional Labour party is no more and what we currently have, and what Ivan, Bobby, Mel, Adele, Red and co support is Labour light blue (Man City) if you will)
Is there anyone in the Labour party that can inspire traditional Labour voters? If there is I haven't seen them.......Dennis Skinner or Frank Field maybe? The rest are 'wet and weak'....career politicians with little or no concept of Labour values or ideology.

All of this is great for the Tories.....A weaker version of them is little competition when the GE comes around

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by blueturando on Tue May 22, 2012 3:55 pm

Just as a footnote to my last post........I don't think Cameron and Osboune are Tories either......but that essay is for another day

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Tue May 22, 2012 9:11 pm

blue you miss something here when you talk about "strength" in a leader.
Thatcher was thought to have had strength, this was confused with arrogance /ruthlessness. Exactly the same applies to Cameron which shows a type of dictatorship, which in Cameron's case is highly visible to the public after only two years in office.
In his case, which differs from the Witch is the fact that he no longer has to be Mr nice guy as he worked his ticket with Clegg to obtain his five year fixed term in office. Thatcher wanted as many terms in office as she could get, Cameron realised from word go that he and his party would be out on their ears even if he and Gideon really used the less mercinary measures for the good of this country and it's people.
Instead they are using this five year term not to get the country back on it's feet, not to worry about growth (although they pretend to be doing so) but to undo all that NL had done for those who are less fortunate than themselves. They are hell bent on creating cheap labour and more wealth for their own kind at the bitter expense of the majority. The proof is in the pudding, it's happening and has been so for the past two years, the rich are getting richer. What more proof do you need to realise what they are up to I ask?

With regards to Ed Miliband there is an inner strenght coupled with patience and compassion. He has cleverly allowed Camercon enough rope to strangle himself. Now we see his rising up like a serpent at the dispatch box against the arrogant con man Cameron at PM's Questions.
Women are warming to his confident but gentlemanly manner and it is the women of this country who will lead to Camercon's downfall.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Adele Carlyon on Tue May 22, 2012 9:45 pm

As a woman of this country I'd love to cut his soddin knackers off! Twisted Evil
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Wed May 23, 2012 7:31 am

Adele ooooooooooh!!!!! I will get you a sharp pair of scissors pronto Very Happy
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by trevorw2539 on Wed May 23, 2012 10:08 am

Adelle and Mel. Should the above not be on the Health Thread. Wink
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by witchfinder on Wed May 23, 2012 10:14 am

The question is : Does austerity work ?

Take politics to aside and think in terms of simplistic common sense, think of this question: Can you permanently spend more money than you earn ? - Answer = NO

No matter which way anyone wishes to present the argument, the deficit must be closed, it cannot be allowed to simply continue on and on indefinately, but its how you close the gap, how fast you mend the deficit and whether you take additional measures to encourage growth that matters.

If your family had no money and you borrowed £100 to help keep your household going, would you then starve your kids in order to pay the money back ?: Or would you pay it back a bit later, or a bit slower, thereby giving you some flexibility to help keep the household going. ?

In the United States we have a government which decided to pay back the money a bit slower, a little bit later, but the US economy is not back in recession, they are way ahead of us on the road to recovery.

In France the new government is about to embark on similar policies to Mr Obama, the French leader can see that austerity, more austerity and nothing but austerity simply does not work; Cutting the deficit must be combined with encouraging growth in both sectors of the economy - private and public.

The single greatest argument in favour of the Hollande - Obama plan is that growth reduces the deficit, stagnation makes the deficit worse, you cannot have a sucessful deficit reduction plan without growth.

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Wed May 23, 2012 11:01 am

The IMF Ms Lagarde said that when she thought about where the UK would have been in 2010 without deficit reduction, it made her "shiver".

What the hell is this bloody French woman thinking of when in fact
IMF data (IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010) shows the UK had the lowest government debt as a proportion of GDP among the G7 countries (the US, Canada, Germany, Britain, Japan, Italy and France).

Has she not studied History, or is she a Tory on a backhander from Gideon?
The bloody Tory orientated media coveniently fail to pick up on these things. It's a disgrace that it is hidden from the masses like a lot of things this government are doing via the back door.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Wed May 23, 2012 4:35 pm

blueturando wrote:Well there lies the problem TLTTF......For a Tory like me to like Blair (early years) says more about the current Labour Party than it does me. Labour has moved inch by inch to the centre ground, even on more than a few occassions stumbling over to the right.
The traditional Labour party is no more and what we currently have, and what Ivan, Bobby, Mel, Adele, Red and co support is Labour light blue (Man City) if you will)
Is there anyone in the Labour party that can inspire traditional Labour voters? If there is I haven't seen them.......Dennis Skinner or Frank Field maybe? The rest are 'wet and weak'....career politicians with little or no concept of Labour values or ideology.

All of this is great for the Tories.....A weaker version of them is little competition when the GE comes around

Try some real economic fact first Blue. Now I quite sure you will cry on about Labour Ideology, but I am very sorry to have to point out that all the main Economic data does not support you arguments at all. you know.. you keep repeating this Blue...carefully selected' data you like (New Labour was always very good at moving the data/stats goal posts) but why is government data selected by us? as what point would there be to do this? As you could show that its been changed? however, you fail to do so? so who is that down to then? Are you really trying to say that all this data is some sort of Left wing conspiracy? as data is data and what's more its coming from your own government websites or IMF reports? as for moving the goal posts? please show me where i have ever done this please? well I am very sorry to have to point this out to you Blue but the OBR, World bank, ONS, and IMF have never colluded in fixing economic data for the Labour party. nor do i feel any great need to post a selective set of economic data. not for you or for anyone for that matter.

Firstly, some facts which blow apart the fallacy that the present economic crisis is the result of excessive spending leading to unsustainable debt:
 
Average annual spending and taxation were both lower as a proportion of GDP under the last 3 Labour Governments (38% and 35.4%) than under the 4 Conservative governments which preceded them (40% and 35.5%).
National debt was lower as a proportion of GDP at the start of the financial crisis in 2008 (36%) than in 1997, the last year of John Major’s Conservative government (42%).
In 2010, the UK’s national debt as a proportion of GDP (52%) was the second lowest of the G7 countries.
 
Secondly, the budget deficit is no more “structural” than an overdraft in your bank account when you spend more than you earn. There is either a real deficit or not, and if there is, then it is due to either excessive spending or an inadequate tax take. Since it can easily be demonstrated that the problem is not the former, then it must be the


latter – caused by the financial crisis and consequent recession and likely to be aggravated when taxes are cut later during this parliament to the benefit of high earners, corporations and banks. As The Investors Chronicle put it (15th February 2010):
 
“The idea of a structural deficit serves a political rather than analytical function. It's a pseudo-scientific concept which serves to legitimate what is in fact a pure judgment call - that borrowing needs cutting.”
 
Osborne began to revive the myth of the structural deficit in June 2010, when it was becoming clear that the deficit would be under £155 billion, well below the Treasury's £178 billion estimate made six months earlier. In other words, the deficit was narrowing after Labour increased spending in 2009. The fact that the US, which has made no serious deficit reductions, has suffered almost the smallest recession of any major developed economy whereas Ireland and Greece have suffered the worst because of drastic spending cuts further undermines the government's claim that radical austerity measures are needed – and shows that Osborne’s main aim is not to reduce the deficit but to accelerate the transfer of wealth to the already rich. also Bank of England's £325bn quantitative easing scheme so far has totally failed to bring an real economic Growth what's so ever. this is with out the Tory party also borrowing some £158 billion as well.

on top of this lot.

SO IN FIVE YEARS OF THIS GOVERNMENT THEY WILL LOSE A COOL £349.5 BILLION POUND IN COMPANY TAX AVOIDANCE SCHEMES OR IF YOU LIKE £69.9 BILLION PER YEAR. NOW YOUR GOVERNMENT WILL CUT THE NATIONAL DEBT ITS SAYS BY £53. BILLION IN FIVE YEARS. SO PLEASE DO TELL US ALL WHAT IS THIS ALL ABOUT? WHAT ECONOMICS OR YOU AND THEM ON HERE?


And if anyone still wants to talk about a “structural” deficit, then they should remember that the last 3 Labour governments managed to earn enough to cover their spending for 4 of their 13 years in office, whereas Thatcher and Major only managed balance the books for 2 out of 17 years.


Last edited by Stox 16 on Wed May 23, 2012 5:19 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Wed May 23, 2012 4:40 pm

bobby wrote:Blue
You keep harping on as to what Ed Miliband’s Labour Government is going to do. Perhaps you might inform me as to what deceit he has been involved in. I know you can give us list after list of Coalition deceit, but as we all know only too well what it is, will you please furnish us with a list of Ed Miliband’s untruth’s. I mean there must be loads of them judging by the way you keep telling us what he will do “3 years on” and what your assumptions are based on.

As I suggested perhaps you should forget about politics and send some time betting on the Gee-Gee’s, wiv your ability to see the future, how could you lose. By the way Blue, if you take my advice, I want a share of the winnings.

Ivan and others have regularly shown evidence of the economy every time your Tories leave it, yet you still come up with the same old, same old. It was Labour wot did it, yet at no occasion have you furnished any evidence, isn’t it about time you did, rather than try to make it up as you go along.

Why is it you have such a selective view of politics, I mean someone who has had an interest since he was at least 9 years old should be an Expert. Or is it in your case, an Ex being a “has been” and a spert being a “drip under pressure“?

Hi Bobby
a first class reply. its high time that the Tories stop all this utter rubbish and show some sort of economic data to back up this silly claims Bobby. if they cannot then have the guts too own up too it I say so?

but the bottom line is this Bobby Neo-classical economics has failed. The assumptions that economic models are based on have increasingly been found to be wrong. its this that Blue and Tifft do not like, as there party just does not know what the hell to do about any of this?

There just sitting around and praying to some blue god will turn changes very soon. well that is not much of an economic plan is it my good friend? hell bells.. my local bar maid could come up with a better plan then this lot have right now.


Last edited by Stox 16 on Wed May 23, 2012 4:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Stox 16 on Wed May 23, 2012 4:47 pm

Mel wrote:The IMF Ms Lagarde said that when she thought about where the UK would have been in 2010 without deficit reduction, it made her "shiver".

What the hell is this bloody French woman thinking of when in fact
IMF data (IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010) shows the UK had the lowest government debt as a proportion of GDP among the G7 countries (the US, Canada, Germany, Britain, Japan, Italy and France).

Has she not studied History, or is she a Tory on a backhander from Gideon?
The bloody Tory orientated media coveniently fail to pick up on these things. It's a disgrace that it is hidden from the masses like a lot of things this government are doing via the back door.

Mel
your 100% spot on with that. as her own IMF data does not back up her claims at all. it makes me sick to the back teeth that our UK media fails to pick up on all this utter economic hog wash at the time of the press conference and once more gives Gideon a free ride. if any of this was to of happened under a Labour Government it would of been a headline story.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Wed May 23, 2012 5:34 pm

Does anyone else have the sensation that the grown-ups have commandeered the Playstation?
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by tlttf on Wed May 23, 2012 6:06 pm

A simple reality check?

Obama vs Balls
Jonathan Jones 5:36pm

What do Ed Balls and Mitt Romney have in common? They both want you to think that Barack Obama is spending government money like never before. For Mitt Romney, it’s an attack: he wants to make Obama a Big Government bogeyman who’s failing to tackle America’s deficit. ‘I will lead us out of this debt and spending inferno,’ the Republican nominee promises. For Ed Balls, it’s an example for Britain to follow: ‘I will lead us into this debt and spending inferno’, the shadow chancellor promises. Well, essentially.

But the Obama camp is pushing back hard against such claims, highlighting a Wall Street Journal article yesterday titled ‘Obama spending binge never happened’. In fact, based on the latest figures from the Congressional Budget Office, Obama has cut federal spending by 0.9 per cent in real terms from 2010/11 to 2011/12.

Ed Balls argues that George Osborne should look to the US President for inspiration, but it seems he already is. UK government spending has fallen by an almost identical 0.9 per cent in real terms from 2010/11 to 2011/12. And it’s projected to fall a further 0.5 per cent in 2012/13, compared to Obama’s 2.6 per cent. So if Balls thinks Osborne should be more like Obama, he’s really advocating faster spending cuts. But I'm sure someone's been warning against going too far, too fast...

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Wed May 23, 2012 8:38 pm

Stox wrote "Mel
your 100% spot on with that. as her own IMF data does not back up her claims at all."

Hello Stox. How is she allowed to get away with that statement? Where is the voice from the Labour party (anyone at all) to defend this. Perhaps you would kindly bring this important error on Lagarde's part to the notice of a member of the party.

Thank you,
Mel.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Phil Hornby on Wed May 23, 2012 9:00 pm

Lagarde Reveals All
(ipezone.blogspot.com)
"...and so everything in the British Economy is absolutely spiffing, as Mr Osborne has so helpfully written in this script..."
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Wed May 23, 2012 10:24 pm

Lost in translation.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Red Cat Woman on Thu May 24, 2012 8:04 am

bobby wrote:Blue
You keep harping on as to what Ed Miliband’s Labour Government is going to do. Perhaps you might inform me as to what deceit he has been involved in. I know you can give us list after list of Coalition deceit, but as we all know only too well what it is, will you please furnish us with a list of Ed Miliband’s untruth’s. I mean there must be loads of them judging by the way you keep telling us what he will do “3 years on” and what your assumptions are based on.

As I suggested perhaps you should forget about politics and send some time betting on the Gee-Gee’s, wiv your ability to see the future, how could you lose. By the way Blue, if you take my advice, I want a share of the winnings.

Ivan and others have regularly shown evidence of the economy every time your Tories leave it, yet you still come up with the same old, same old. It was Labour wot did it, yet at no occasion have you furnished any evidence, isn’t it about time you did, rather than try to make it up as you go along.

Why is it you have such a selective view of politics, I mean someone who has had an interest since he was at least 9 years old should be an Expert. Or is it in your case, an Ex being a “has been” and a spert being a “drip under pressure“?

Ciao il bobby penso che blu non sa che è su di quando viene alle scienze economiche. avere giusto un va al mio Iitalian che il mio mum me aiuta con. legge ok?



Em xx
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Red Cat Woman on Thu May 24, 2012 8:10 am

Phil Hornby wrote:Lagarde Reveals All
(ipezone.blogspot.com)
"...and so everything in the British Economy is absolutely spiffing, as Mr Osborne has so helpfully written in this script..."

I wonder how much he paid her Phil? as it does not fit in with all her past report on us does it.

RCW X
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Thu May 24, 2012 8:24 am

"I wonder how much he paid her Phil? as it does not fit in with all her past report on us does it."

The problem Red Cat is that we know that what she said does not fit with the IMF report in April 2010 but the masses out there do not know the truth of the matter.

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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Red Cat Woman on Thu May 24, 2012 8:51 am

Adele Carlyon wrote:As a woman of this country I'd love to cut his soddin knackers off! Twisted Evil

can i help Adele please when you do?
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Red Cat Woman on Thu May 24, 2012 8:53 am

Mel wrote:"I wonder how much he paid her Phil? as it does not fit in with all her past report on us does it."

The problem Red Cat is that we know that what she said does not fit with the IMF report in April 2010 but the masses out there do not know the truth of the matter.


I agree Mel. it was missed by everyone. but it must be pointed out I think. but would a right wing media report it?
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Thu May 24, 2012 9:20 am

"would a right wing media report it? "

Probably not Red Cat. However If I can get the Mirror, the Guardian for example to report, then that is a step forward.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by oftenwrong on Thu May 24, 2012 11:48 am

Mel wrote:"I wonder how much he paid her Phil? as it does not fit in with all her past report on us does it."

The problem Red Cat is that we know that what she said does not fit with the IMF report in April 2010 but the masses out there do not know the truth of the matter.


Birds of a feather ..... It's not unlikely that the Managing Director of the IMF would find that she has much in common with the Tory Toff who is running the Nation's economy and has pledged several billions of OUR money to assist the Eurozone. You don't bite the hand that feeds you.

Additionally, there is almost certainly a hidden agenda agreed by the Bank of England, ECB and the IMF (and probably the World Bank too) should Greece be spat out by the Eurozone.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Mel on Thu May 24, 2012 12:03 pm

Good point OW. However, that does not mean we cannot attempt to expose her hypocritical /lie.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Red Cat Woman on Fri May 25, 2012 7:16 am

Mel wrote:"would a right wing media report it? "

Probably not Red Cat. However If I can get the Mirror, the Guardian for example to report, then that is a step forward.

yes how very true. i just do hope they sit back and figure out they missed the boat over this story.
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

Post by Red Cat Woman on Fri May 25, 2012 7:17 am

Mel wrote:Good point OW. However, that does not mean we cannot attempt to expose her hypocritical /lie.

no it does not Mel. what's more we should do just that in my view
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Re: Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

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