The UK and the European Union - in or out? (Part 1)

First topic message reminder :

EUROSCEPTICS & UKIP CANNOT ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS

In the late 1980s the nations of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) began to seriously contemplate joining the EU, there were many reasons for this, but they included the realisation that it was the only way forward for trade and prosperity, in the case of Sweden it was also the fact that several large companies made it clear they would relocate if Sweden stayed outside the EU.

Current EFTA members: Iceland - Lichtenstein - Norway - Switzerland

EFTA members who joined the EU: - Austria - Denmark - Portugal - Sweden - United Kingdom - Finland

In 1994 the European Economic Area was formed (EEA), this was a compromise organisation for those members of EFTA who did not or could not join the European Union, joining the EEA meant access to EU markets, but the deal also meant accepting EU rules, even though these states were not / are not EU members.

THE QUESTION TO THE EUROSCEPTICS IS THIS: After leaving the EU, would the UK be free of all EU rules, regulations, directives and laws?

And the straighforward answer is: NO  and here is why:-

A meat production company in Lincolnshire is close to signing a multi-million pound deal with a European supermarket chain, just before the two managing directors take out their pens to sign the agreement, the boss of the supermarket chain pulls out a list of conditions.

The list of conditions consist of EU rules, unfortunately Britain has left the EU and unless the British meat producer conforms to EU standards the deal cannot go ahead, the rules cover everything from animal welfare, temperature control, employee rights, labeling, weight, moisture content and hygiene.

So no matter what happens in the future, the UK will always have to accept EU laws

Think of Norway as an example of a European nation outside the European Union, Norway is a member of the European Economic Area ( the EEA ), and as such has to accept into law virtualy every EU rule, regulation, directive and law, furthermore Norway has had to sign up to many of the EU treaties.

Norway has no say and no vote on any of the EU legislation which it accepts, and this is exactly how Britain would end up, inside the EU the UK influences legislation, it does have a say, and it does have a vote, unlike Norway.

A FREE TRADE AGREEMENT "JUST LIKE SWITZERLAND" [ Nigel Farage ]

According to UKIP, the future under them would be simple, all we need to do is leave the EU and sign up to a new free trade agreement, and the future would be bright  , but a free trade agreement ?, lets look at that word "agreement", an agreement is not one sided, it is between the parties that make the agreement, and lets face facts here, the EU will call the shots, not Britain.

The European Union is not going to change its rules to cater for a single nation of 60 million, especialy when that nation has left the EU but still wants all the benefits of belonging, namely trade.

I am afraid that under such circumstances, Germany, France, Italy and the rest would say "our way or not at all", the best solution by far is to simply remain within the EU and go forward into the future together.

Who are those nasty people to which you refer patakace?
Can you explain your next line properly please?

patakace wrote:
The same help that is presently  given to  needy and genuinely disadvantaged people will always apply .

Ah yes, the autographed photo of IDS with a voucher enclosed for 50% off cremations.

It can only be wishful thinking for anyone to suggest that should Greece - one of 28 member countries - leave, or be forced to leave, the EU, then the whole edifice will collapse. Although Jean-Claude Juncker said in the European Parliament on 15 July last year that no new countries were expected to join the EU in the next five years, seven (plus Kosovo) are waiting for the chance to do so at the earliest opportunity:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11283616

It's not just Greece which is a near certainty to change direction , it is Banks ( again) in general . Watch France and Italy --- don't blink .
And with the Swiss distancing themselves from the collapsing Euro , we are watching a death spiral .

Let's see what the reaction is to the ECB's use of QE , masked as Bonds .To be announced on Thursday probably .

Oh we will see alright, that is what you should be joining the circus, with your predictions.

That's nice ---- you wanting me to meet you at your work place .

PS Hardly a prediction . Just knowing the right people perhaps .

You must have known the right people to become a man from a woman eh black cherry.

patakace wrote:It's not just Greece which is a near   certainty to change direction ,  it is Banks ( again) in general  . Watch  France and Italy --- don't blink .
And with the Swiss distancing themselves from the collapsing Euro , we are watching a death spiral .

Let's see what the reaction is to the ECB's use of QE , masked as Bonds .To  be announced on Thursday probably .

The Greek election result will be known next week, so such predictions will be tested quite soon. Banks by their nature must constantly trim their sails to the prevailing economic winds, and both Frenchmen and Italians seem to survive in spite of rather than because of what their politicians and/or bankers do. The Central Bank of Switzerland does itself no favours in making Swiss goods ever more expensive in their export markets by the 30% increase in exchange rate. It may even prove to be an admission of defeat in the face of international currency speculators.

You are even wrong there--- the need to now learn Chinese / Mandarin  .
The USA remains the largest economy and China's growth level has  nearly halved in the last few years .China will remain behind the US for perhaps another decade . Particularly with the US apparently coming out of  depression -- see latest growth and employment figures .
See also today's new IMF review and data for China et al's top line figures .
We should have been pushing all kids to learn Chinese and American for the last few decades .
But that is another Topic .
And when China does engage in military action , it will be to  defend their well established positions in Africa and perhaps to break into eastern Russian territory .
This latter possibility is well documented and with Russia now  effectively a failed state , the pickings might be easy in two or three years time .

oftenwrong wrote:The Greek election result will be known next week, so such predictions will be tested quite soon.  Banks by their nature must constantly trim their sails to the prevailing economic winds, and both Frenchmen and Italians seem to survive in spite of rather than because of what their politicians and/or bankers do.  The Central Bank of Switzerland does itself no favours in making Swiss goods ever more expensive in their export markets by the 30% increase in exchange rate.  It may even prove to be an admission of defeat in the face of international currency speculators.

I guess " Banking " is not one of your pet subjects .
Where do you think the bulk of QE1 , 2 and 3 went  :and even if you get that right do you know which EU Banks they  also bailed out --- start with Parabas , Deutsche and Barclays and you will be on the right path .
Where do you think the bulk of UK , QE went ?
These giants are still  in disaster street but you won't find that in your soppy mainstream media .The fall of any of those and others like JP Morgan , Wells Fargo , Bank of America , City Group etc would make '07/'08 look chicken feed .
The point now is that the ECB is broke . Just like the IMF .
The Swiss don't need lectures on the effects of  goods price changes as a result of decoupling from the failed Euro .
They know what is coming  , and whether they announce it or not  , they will regulate their Franc to the $US .
Why do you think Gold has gone through the roof the last few trading days ?
You will be delighted to know that I came back in at 1180 and it showed 1290 a few seconds ago . It's better than working when you know what you are doing .
Spectators like our Nottingham friend bleat about predictions when real examination of all of the news gives the answers that seem flights of fancy to those too lazy to find out what is really  going on right across the planet .

patakace wrote:

I guess " Banking " is not one of your pet subjects .
Where do you think the bulk of QE1 , 2 and 3 went  :and even if you get that right do you know which EU Banks they  also bailed out --- start with Parabas , Deutsche and Barclays and you will be on the right path .

I guess it's not one of yours either,  since Barclays Bank PLC did NOT receive any government cash following the 2008 credit crunch.  They made their own arrangements.

If you're going to pontificate it's better to try and get your facts right.  Not that it matters. Also you spelt Paribas wrong. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BNP_Paribas

Few things are quite so satisfying as seeing the custard pie accurately dispensed...

Hi, Phil

Just going to say the same boatlady! Hi Phil nice to see you posting with your usual humour

oftenwrong wrote:Barclays Bank PLC did NOT receive any government cash following the 2008 credit crunch.  They made their own arrangements.

If you're going to pontificate it's better to try and get your facts right.  Not that it matters.  Also you spelt Paribas wrong.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BNP_Paribas

Do you believe you know the truth just  because Wiki has become your only information source  ?
It's not a dictionary of truth and in this instance Bernanke and his team handed assistance to Barclays . Among many others .

oftenwrong wrote:If you're going to pontificate it's better to try and get your facts right.  Not that it matters.  Also you spelt Paribas wrong.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BNP_Paribas

And if you want to concentrate on details rather than the full picture ,  so be it .
I write a great deal most days   -- many times more than i put on this chat board . I make occasional  technical mistakes .
So what ?
If I was a pedant I could spend a day revising many of your posts for sense , grammar and punctuation .  I mention this only because of your initial silliness .

JUST AN EXTRACT TO HELP YOu BROADEN YOUR KNOWLEDGE


What this observation also means, is that the bulk of risk asset purchasing by dealer desks (if any), has not been performed by US-based primary dealers, as has been widely speculated, but by foreign dealers, which have the designatin of "Primary" with the Federal Reserve. Below is the list of 20 Primary Dealers currently recognized by the New York Fed. The foreign ones, with US-based operations, are bolded:

BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Barclays Capital Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.

Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC

Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
Jefferies & Company, Inc.
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
MF Global Inc.
Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated

Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Nomura Securities International, Inc.

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

RBS Securities Inc.

SG Americas Securities, LLC

UBS Securities LLC.
That's right, out of 20 Primary Dealers, 12 are.... foreign. And incidentally, the reason why we added the (if any) above, is that since this cash is fungible between on and off-shore operations, what happened is that the $600 billion in cash was promptly repatriated and used by domestic branches of foreign banks to fill undercapitalization voids left by exposure to insolvent European PIIGS and for all other bankruptcy-related capital needs. And one wonders why suddenly German banks are so willing to take haircuts on Greek bonds: it is simply because courtesy of their US based branches which have been getting the bulk of the Fed's dollars in 1 and 0 format, they suddenly find themselves willing and ready to face the mark to market on Greek debt from par to 50 cents on the dollar. And not only Greek, but all other PIIGS, which will inevitably happen once Greece goes bankrupt, either volutnarily or otherwise. In fact, the $600 billion in cash that was repatriated to Europe will mean that European banks likely are fully covered to face the capitalization shortfall that will occur once Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain and possibly Italy are forced to face the inevitable Event of Default that will see their bonds marked down anywhere between 20% and 60%. Of course, this will also expose the ECB as an insolvent central bank, but that largely explains why Germany has been so willing to allow Mario Draghi to take the helm at an institution that will soon be left insolvent, and also explains the recent shocking animosity between Angela Merkel and Jean Claude Trichet: the German are preparing for the end of the ECB, and thanks to Ben Bernanke they are certainly capitalized well enough to handle the end of Europe's lender of first and last resort. But don't take our word for this: here is Stone McCarthy's explanation of what massive reserve sequestering by foreign banks means: "Foreign banks operating in the US often lend reserves to home offices or other banks operating outside the US. These loans do not change the volume of excess reserves in the system, but do support the funding of dollar denominated assets outside the US....Foreign banks operating in the US do not present a large source of C&I, Consumer, or Real Estate Loans. These banks represent about 16% of commercial bank assets, but only about 9% of bank credit. Thus, the concern that excess reserves will quickly fuel lending activities and money growth is probably diminished by the skewing of excess reserve balances towards foreign banks."

So you can read, and plagiarise patakace. The whole of the above was lifted word-for-word from a journal called Business Insider.

The custom here is to acknowledge cut-and-paste and to provide a link.

You didn't, so I have:
http://www.businessinsider.com/where-did-all-of-the-qe2-money-go-2011-6?IR=T

You have not been charged for this service.

You cannot even pass a simple comprehension test .
The headline clearly says in capital letters , " THIS IS AN EXTRACT --- "


Let's face it you are not often wrong . You are always wrong and forgot to apologise for your original error and ill considered comments .
And above all , Barclays did receive support from the Federal Reserve via QE .
Perhaps you can inform Wiki that their information requires revision . Within reason anybody can make a Wiki entry .
Amazing what I know and you do not .

Brill OW, HE/SHE tried their best to ridicule you yet again with that cut and paste, very glad you were aware to it.

Well said Ivan.

That's fine by me .
I was determined to let our mistaken commentator see exactly "how "and" why " he was in error . WHICH HE WAS
I showed an extract ( HIGHLIGHTED BY ME ) because the full report was huge and nobody here would have read it .
Let's not lose sight of the fact that what I originally said was 100 % correct .
Which you all loathe .
Obviously no one in their right mind imagines that the extract was being passed off as my original . Only a lunatic would have thought that . Although on reflection one seems to have ---
Well , in normal situations it would all be obvious . But may be not here among -------------

stuart torr wrote:Brill OW, HE/SHE tried their best to ridicule you yet again with that cut and paste, very glad you were aware to it.

Only problem was that as usual I was 100% right .
The cut and paste showed unequivocally how whoever it was blundered badly .

Incidentally , do you ever post anything original , thought provoking or constructive ? Can you offer links /proof ?

patakace, now there you go again with your 100% right when in fact you were in the wrong were you not? you will find out cutting edges rules soon enough no doubt. As your cut and paste was too long was it not? and broke the rules did it not? but because of that you turn on myself to get rid of your anger, as per usual.

You just make me laugh , Stuart . I have never thought of you otherwise .
I see you as a watered down version of Perez who always manages to get things badly wrong .

But great to see today's poll which shows the Tories have gone ahead .
Looks like another great PPP -- Perfect Pat Prediction .

Cameron in and the British out of Europe .
Great news .

If the eu prevents war on a foundation of economic well being, it is good. if it stops countries trying to put one over on each other, it is a good thing. if it prevents war, it is a good thing.

If the eu makes people poorer, they lose their jobs, so it is bad.

Solution? why not observe that the euro could be coupled with other currencies? that is the only real thing in the way and changing about the u.k, yes? if the politics keeps people together, and there is strength in numbers, then it should not be disbanded because people are buying euros on the local market, but the pound does suffer. so, they could make a new currency based on the pound, hell, they were trading in pounds before this euro story. if they really want to be rich again, then they need to get rid of the pound!

Indeed. Some people here put their faith in the Krugerrand.

An EU explainer for the easily bored: what has Europe ever done for me?

Thanks to the EU, wine is more affordable, flights are cheaper and you can access the internet on your phone abroad without having to get another mortgage. And that’s not all. . .

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/eu-explainer-easily-bored-what-has-europe-ever-done-me

Well Ivan as long as the tories do not get in and take us out of europe we are ok are we not?

Amusing article - pity the Kippers can't be forced to read it

It's an ill wind that blows no good.

There are advantages and drawbacks to almost any aspect of the human existence, and if we're honest we know it's a question of taking the rough with the smooth. With a vast topic like the European Union, there will obviously be things we like and others which have limited appeal.

Britain has the unique advantage within the EU of having a separate currency, which currently enable us to feel slightly superior (enjoy that while it lasts) although it makes exporting to our major customer area less competitive.

Today's Economic news is that Germany is still leading all others but that previous basket-case countries Spain and Eire have notably strengthened. How have they done that? Same way as the Coalition - by driving down wages.

Say no more.

The EU referendum was brought back to prominence today by Tony Blair's intervention, suggesting that the uncertainty created by Cameron's declaration that only he was promising that course of action, served only to create two years of indecision.

As most political commentators seem agreed that the next Prime Minister will only be one of either Cameron or Miliband, that would seem to make the General Election itself a Referendum on Britain's continued EU membership.

Or have I missed the point again?

If Cameron wants to stay in the EU, he needs to stop appeasing his enemies

Extracts from an article by Polly Toynbee:-

The spectre of a backbench rebellion forced Cameron into a screeching U-turn: within 12 hours of telling the press his ministers must toe his EU line, they bared their teeth and he knuckled under instead. His pretence that he’d been “over-interpreted” was a new addition to the lexicon of terminological inexactitudes.

“The bastards” are back. Grand master of the bastard lodge Sir Bill Cash has tabled rebel amendments to today’s EU referendum bill, demanding a 16-week purdah period during which civil servants aren’t allowed to make political comments – or, as Cash sees it, warp the result with pro-EU propaganda (expect no equalising purdah from the Mail, Telegraph or Murdoch press). Cameron will cave in on this, too, as his whips no longer have the whip hand. Already 110 MPs have signed up to the anti-EU Conservatives for Britain – over half of all Tory backbenchers.

Outsiders might look gleefully at the Tory Party disintegrating so soon after victory, devouring itself from within. But all who think exit from the EU would be a catastrophe should be alarmed. Cameron set appeasing his unappeasables before the national interest and laid this trapdoor under his feet. Now the whole country is standing on it too. If Britain leaves the EU, Scotland would most likely leave the union, and a wall would potentially go up on the border with the Republic, effectively unpicking Northern Ireland’s settlement. Surely even someone as focused on shrinking the state as Cameron fears a legacy of a broken Britain, with little England offshore and adrift.

For the whole article:-
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/16/cameron-eu-referendum-rebels

Brexit is starting to sound less like a breakfast cereal and more like being inside a building with the fire-alarm going off.

In Spain on Sunday there is going to be a further roll of the dice for Catalan Independence. Never a dull moment in European politics.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34346593

And people say that Cameron is 'statesmanlike'

people say that Cameron is 'statesmanlike'

Well, Cameron's people do, anyway. But examine the alternatives - a towhead or a cokehead.

Sheesh!

Or Mr Corbyn

Brexit: throwing the baby out with the bathwater

From a blog by Stefanie Lehmann:-

"In Germany, and arguably in most of the other 28 member states, not being part of the EU is not even really considered an option. So my encounter with anti-EU sentiment, when I moved to the UK five years ago, was a culture shock on the scale of Marmite. While anti-EU sentiment can be traced to a number of origins, it primarily manifests itself in the UK through a discourse of power that harkens back to the golden age of the nation state.

There’s something in the EU for everyone — whether it’s the idealism of its peace and co-operation promoting aims; its pragmatic function of recognising interdependence and extracting maximal value from it; or the self-interested motive of deepening trade links, with adequate regulation to protect consumers. The EU affects millions of people positively and measurably. Those are the stories we need to voice and hear over the misinformed hubbub of banning bent bananas. Solidarity is likely too antiquated a concept to count on, but consumer protection and a progressive blend of self-interest and idealism are not.

The referendum is not a choice between Britain or the EU, we can have both. The refugee crisis would still have happened if we didn’t have the EU. A vote against the EU may also be a vote against Scotland. In uncertain times, why should we give up established international relationships? We don’t know what life outside the EU would look like, how much of a risk it would be. We know Britain will survive either scenario. But a vote to remain translates into a vote for facing a future of cross-border opportunity together."

For the whole of this blog:-
http://thealternativepolitics.com/2015/10/16/brexit-throwing-the-baby-out-with-the-bathwater/