The UK and the European Union - in or out? (Part 1)

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EUROSCEPTICS & UKIP CANNOT ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS

In the late 1980s the nations of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) began to seriously contemplate joining the EU, there were many reasons for this, but they included the realisation that it was the only way forward for trade and prosperity, in the case of Sweden it was also the fact that several large companies made it clear they would relocate if Sweden stayed outside the EU.

Current EFTA members: Iceland - Lichtenstein - Norway - Switzerland

EFTA members who joined the EU: - Austria - Denmark - Portugal - Sweden - United Kingdom - Finland

In 1994 the European Economic Area was formed (EEA), this was a compromise organisation for those members of EFTA who did not or could not join the European Union, joining the EEA meant access to EU markets, but the deal also meant accepting EU rules, even though these states were not / are not EU members.

THE QUESTION TO THE EUROSCEPTICS IS THIS: After leaving the EU, would the UK be free of all EU rules, regulations, directives and laws?

And the straighforward answer is: NO  and here is why:-

A meat production company in Lincolnshire is close to signing a multi-million pound deal with a European supermarket chain, just before the two managing directors take out their pens to sign the agreement, the boss of the supermarket chain pulls out a list of conditions.

The list of conditions consist of EU rules, unfortunately Britain has left the EU and unless the British meat producer conforms to EU standards the deal cannot go ahead, the rules cover everything from animal welfare, temperature control, employee rights, labeling, weight, moisture content and hygiene.

So no matter what happens in the future, the UK will always have to accept EU laws

Think of Norway as an example of a European nation outside the European Union, Norway is a member of the European Economic Area ( the EEA ), and as such has to accept into law virtualy every EU rule, regulation, directive and law, furthermore Norway has had to sign up to many of the EU treaties.

Norway has no say and no vote on any of the EU legislation which it accepts, and this is exactly how Britain would end up, inside the EU the UK influences legislation, it does have a say, and it does have a vote, unlike Norway.

A FREE TRADE AGREEMENT "JUST LIKE SWITZERLAND" [ Nigel Farage ]

According to UKIP, the future under them would be simple, all we need to do is leave the EU and sign up to a new free trade agreement, and the future would be bright  , but a free trade agreement ?, lets look at that word "agreement", an agreement is not one sided, it is between the parties that make the agreement, and lets face facts here, the EU will call the shots, not Britain.

The European Union is not going to change its rules to cater for a single nation of 60 million, especialy when that nation has left the EU but still wants all the benefits of belonging, namely trade.

I am afraid that under such circumstances, Germany, France, Italy and the rest would say "our way or not at all", the best solution by far is to simply remain within the EU and go forward into the future together.

Why it's time to accept the fact that Brexit may never actually happen

From an article by Jim Edwards:-

The more time goes by, the more plausible it becomes that the UK may never actually leave the European Union. Leaving is so difficult, and the consequences are so economically damaging, that it may be easier for Theresa May's government to endlessly delay the process rather than to actually leave.

1. The Tories have a majority of just 12 seats.
2. Theresa May is pro-Remain.
3. A majority of MPs are pro-Remain.
4. The government faces a general election in 2020, right after the UK - in theory - leaves the EU.
5. One million UK voters live in EU countries. The vast majority of them will vote against any government that threatens their EU residency status.
6. Reduced access to the single market will hurt the economy.
7. Do the Tories really want to go into the 2020 election defending a policy that hurts the economy and increases unemployment?
8. The EU will not offer the UK a "special deal" featuring full access to the single market but control of UK borders because such a deal would encourage other nations to leave.
9. The EU can withdraw the UK's bank "passport" that gives UK financial services firms access to the single market. Do the Tories want to go into 2020 defending a policy that decimates the City, which pays 11% of the UK's entire tax base?
10. Triggering Article 50 is reversible. The UK can formally trigger its Article 50 request and then withdraw the request before Brexit actually takes place, if the country wants to.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/why-its-time-to-accept-the-fact-that-brexit-may-never-actually-happen-a7148816.html

Those who voted for Brexit must be so proud of themselves......

Britain's economy shrinking at fastest rate since 2009, says survey

The Bank of England and the Treasury are under increasing pressure to prevent Britain from sliding into recession after a wide-ranging health check of the economy completed since the referendum showed the sharpest downturn in activity since the peak of the financial crisis seven years ago,

Service industries ranging from banks to restaurants, hedge funds, bars, gyms and hairdressers were all affected by what was described as as a “dramatic deterioration” in business confidence that suggests the economy is on course to shrink by 0.4% in the third quarter unless conditions improve.

Details:-
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/22/britains-economy-shrinking-at-fastest-rate-since-2009-says-survey

But looking on the bright side, inflation seems to be less of a problem.
At least until retailers put their prices up and say that Brexit is to blame.

Thanks for this useful summary chart showing post Brexit options Ivan.

A lot of Brexiteer Tories have been extolling the virtues of CETA, Canada's soon to be ratified trade agreement with the EU. As suspected, the Tory right want access to as much of the single market as possible without free movement of people so this tends to tick their boxes. In essence this is getting close to the old Common Market model before ever closer political union (including human/worker rights and environmental protection) came to the fore after the Maastrict Treaty of 1992/3. They want an unfettered, deregulated market for business with a race to the bottom on social and environmental protection.

Theresa May has made her disdain for energy and climate change abundantly clear by disbanding the Department and putting it under Business's wing. No doubt more regressive actions are to follow in quick pursuit as the brakes of the EU legal framework are prised from the UK's economic wheels.

We can expect the collapse of the UK steel industry as cheap Chinese steel floods in in even greater tonnages once a 'free trade' deal has been hatched with China. Ditto for our sheep farmers as New Zealand lamb is dumped without tariffs to keep food prices low for the supermarkets to maximise their margins.

Commentators looking back at higher than expected economic growth in the quarter before the EU Referendum remind me of the old gag about the person plunging towards the ground from a high rise building -

So far so good, so far so good, so far so good, so far so good........................SPLAT

Many of these are of course the possible outcomes predicted by the 'Remain' camp - if only folk had paid attention

Academics feel blight of Brexit – from cancer research to peat projects

Academics across the country are finding they already are having to cope with the fallout from the decision to leave the EU. Following the referendum there is uncertainty about whether UK universities will continue to comply with the EU agreements that surround the European credit transfer and accumulation system, which allows students to transfer credits between courses at different European universities. This uncertainty makes it difficult for other universities to endorse a course taught in the UK.

Why would the EU continue to give up funds designed to implement EU environmental legislation to a country withdrawing from the EU that wants to reduce regulation?

Dr Farhat Khanim: “I’m furious about the referendum. My colleagues and I collaborate with many colleagues in Europe, including on our cancer prevention programme, and we’re finding we have to start conversations by discussing Brexit and its implications for funding given the current uncertainty. EU colleagues are concerned that it’s going to be harder to make our joint projects succeed and they are worried about having UK team members involved.”

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/aug/02/academics-brexit-research-peat-fears-eu-funds

Every part of the UK economy is suddenly shrinking

From an article by Will Martin:-

"Britain’s services sector, which accounts for more than 75% of the country’s GDP, is tumbling towards a recession, according to the latest data on growth. The services sector - which accounts for everything from banking to waitressing - saw its biggest monthly fall in activity between June and July since records began.

It completes a trilogy of dreadful post-Brexit economic figures released this week, following sharp slowdowns in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Every major constituent of the UK economy is now shrinking in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union. Meanwhile, figures released on Wednesday also show the eurozone economy has been largely untouched by the Brexit decision. Economically, Britain has cut off its nose to spite its face."

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/markit-services-pmi-for-the-uk-in-july-2016-8

"Just as you think that things couldn't possibly get worse .... they do."

M Thatcher PM

This is an extract from the Tory election manifesto of May 2015: "Safeguard British interests IN the single market."................  


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The aftermath of the Brexit vote – the verdict from a derided expert

From an article by John Van Reenen:-

“The basis for increasing populism all around the world is economic insecurity caused primarily by the worst recession and recovery since the war. But some blame must also be apportioned to the UK’s current crop of politicians, who are surely the worst in living memory. Cameron called an unnecessary referendum in order to steal some votes back from the far right. It was obviously going to become a vote on general grievances to kick the establishment, rather than about EU membership.

Lies over the £350 million a week sent to the EU and the UK’s veto over Turkey becoming an EU member were repeated ad nauseum. I never thought I would experience such an Orwellian nightmare in my country. These lies, which were not robustly challenged in the media, cannot be punished in another general election. And it worked: people ended up believing them.

Remain had a voting majority for those under 50 years of age and also in London, Scotland and Northern Ireland. It is shocking that a constitutional rupture can be made based on 37% of the eligible voters. We take decades debating and prevaricating on major infrastructure projects like Heathrow and Hinkley Point, yet are prepared to gamble with something even more important for our futures on a simple one-off in-out referendum.

The referendum was won on a drumbeat of anti-foreigner sentiment. It’s the same tune being played by demagogues in every corner of the globe. Mixed by a band of unscrupulous liars and political zealots, it has become a tsunami of bile that has downed and drowned a once great nation.”

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-aftermath-of-the-brexit-vote-a-verdict-from-those-of-those-experts-were-not-supposed-to-listen-to/

Cheery stuff

Give me faceless EU bureaucrats over the Tories and their corporate cronies

From an article by Molly Scott Cato:-

Soon after the referendum, MEPs voted overwhelmingly for a series of measures including a common consolidated corporate tax base (CCCTB), a single set of rules on taxable profits for companies operating within the EU, which can stop tax wars between nations and a race to the bottom in terms of tax rates. George Osborne’s response to this post-Brexit? An announcement that he planned to reduce corporation tax to 18%. When it comes to tackling corporate tax dodging, give me faceless bureaucrats and MEPs over Tories and their corporate cronies any day.

The empty slogan “take back control” was hugely effective during the referendum campaign. I believe Leave voters had a justifiable sense that we are all losing control over our work, and our public sphere. Unfortunately, with the EU, they chose the wrong target. Many of our most urgent problems can only be solved by cross-border co-operation.

No one country alone can resist the power of global corporations; to do this we need to work in co-operation with other countries. Ironically, the Brexit vote reduces our power to ensure corporations pay the taxes we need to build a thriving society and a flourishing economy. Indeed, there is a real danger that the Tories, and particularly those leading the Brexit negotiations, will seek to make the UK infamous for being one of the world’s leading tax havens.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/31/faceless-eu-bureaucrats-tories-corporate-cronies-margrethe-vestager-apple-brexit

The notion that the UK can have a Free Trade Agreement with the EU but from outside of the EU is of course pure La-la-land fantasy.

Trade Agreements have to include all sorts of essential peripheral agreements such as intellectual rights, trademark protection, quality controls, working conditions, recognition of professional qualifications and freedom of movement, alongside exchange-rate mechanisms and banking regulations.

Such things come as a package, like for example a motor car.  You can't expect to be allowed to buy a vehicle which is complete except for brakes just because you don't want brakes on "Free Trade".

David Schneider writes:-


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From the comments section of the FT.......  


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rather witty, that

What made the above cartoon effective was that it typifies the distractions being manufactured by the May administration to conceal their disarray over Brexit. The surprise revival of the argument over Grammar Schools is surely a smokescreen to divert attention away from the Europe-thing while they desperately think of something useful to do about that.

In turn Doctor Fox and David Davies pop up to make unhelpful observations, and the Tory propaganda machine continues to foment fury over the Labour leadership election - something which has nothing to do with the Tories. Oddments are "leaked" to the Press such as a possible return to the blue UK passport; which is about as critical to the debate as the colour of yesterday's sunset.

In an apparently separate diversion (but there are an unlikely number of diversions current) people are being invited to sign a petition to retain a popular Cookery programme for the BBC. Surely we must soon be warned of another asteroid heading straight for Earth.

I looked at a popular national 'newspaper' today - two stories on the front page
1) GBBO
2) Mrs Vaz's property portfolio

Ye gods! While civilisation crashes and burns around us

What do the newspapers care about civilization? How much does civilization pay?

And today, I believe we have had our very own Labour 'rivers of blood' speech courtesy of Rachel Reeves - we do live in interesting times

Visited our friends from Kerala at the weekend
She completed her citizenship process last year and he was already a citizen.
They voted 'out' in the referendum - reason given - they had to work hard to become British citizens but people from Europe just waltz into the country and get benefits and free housing just like that - these are educated and intelligent people who work in the NHS - there's actually no hope

Theresa May is running a 'government with no policies', claims Ken Clarke

From an article by Laura Hughes:-

Ken Clarke, the former Tory chancellor and MP for Rushcliffe, claimed "nobody" in the government has a plan to get Britain out of the EU. In an interview with ‘The New Statesman’, he also revealed that he would vote against Brexit in the House of Commons.

Clarke said: "Nobody in the government has the first idea of what they're going to do next on the Brexit front". He also hit out at the ‘Three Brexiteers’, Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox, suggesting they were unable to work together. He added: “Whatever is negotiated will be denounced by the ultra-Eurosceptics as a betrayal. Theresa May has had the misfortune of taking over at the most impossible time. She faces an appalling problem of trying to get these ‘Three Brexiteers’ to agree.”

“The idea that I’m suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in Parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable”, Clarke said. He added that David Cameron’s decision to hold a referendum on the EU will see him “go down in history as the man who made the mistake of taking us out of the European Union”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/29/theresa-may-is-running-a-government-with-no-policies-claims-ken/

An extract from 'Private Eye':-


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Maybe what Britain needs is a Military Dictator to scrap the entire fiction of government by democracy, which just doesn't seem to be serving the Nation's interests very well at the moment. Does it?

(Written by David Schneider for 'Huffington Post UK')

We’re marching towards extreme Brexit. Someone must speak for the 48%

Extracts from an article by Jonathan Freedland:-

"Among the multiple absurdities uttered by those who demanded Britain’s departure from the EU is the claim that, since the sky has not yet fallen in, all those gloomy warnings have been proved wrong. Absurd because we have not yet left. That the first few post-referendum months seemed steady enough can be attributed to the hope nurtured by some of our trading partners, along with the markets, that we might not go ahead with this planned act of national self-harm. Which is why our currency takes a plunge every time Theresa May or her ministers indicate that, no, Brexit really will happen. The harder Brexit threatens to be, the deeper the pound tumbles.

Meanwhile, we are methodically trashing the very international reputation that has made us an attractive place to invest, visit or live. Most countries long to bring in the best and the brightest, we seem determined to turn them away. The government has signalled to foreign-born doctors and students that they are no longer wanted here, as well as warning global companies they will be named and shamed for the crime of drawing on an international pool of talent. The LSE claimed the government had told its non-British experts on Europe that their wisdom was not wanted.

No longer the winner in a fairly narrow vote of 52% to 48%, leave was recast in the PM’s conference speech as a mass consensus, the unambiguous stance of the great British public. All that had ever stood in their way was a liberal, monied elite, the Davos set of footloose globetrotters devoid of national allegiance, citizens of the world and therefore citizens of nowhere. Before our very eyes the 48% are being rebranded as the 1%."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/07/marching-mad-brexit-someone-speak-48-per-cent

In Little England, the conceit of Brexit is on full display

Extracts from an article by Philip Bowring:-

"Brexit is built on a fearsome alliance of arrogance, ignorance and nostalgia. If pursued with the intensity indicated by Theresa May, the decline of the nation relative to its European peers is destined to accelerate. Then PM David Cameron promised a referendum on the EU simply to buy off the xenophobic wing of his party, as there was no popular demand for it. In the process, he undermined centuries of representative government through Parliament, unleashing a protest vote backed by battalions of lies from the ranks of opportunists led by Boris Johnson, a precursor of Donald Trump. The nostalgia for a non-existent past is particularly strong among older generations.

Many Brexiteers hide their racism behind claims that migrants are crowding out Brits for health treatment. Yet foreign doctors and nurses underpin the health service, whose problems are mainly because the UK spends far less on health than other north European countries.

Two of the sectors which help offset a gigantic deficit in goods trade are especially at risk. The biggest is financial and insurance services, which shows a huge surplus. The other is cars, now the largest export item thanks to Japanese and others who set up plants which mostly export within the EU. The idea that the UK can compensate for trade losses by free trade deals with countries such as China is laughable. The only hope for the Brexiteers is that the likes of Marine le Pen in France and equivalents in Germany, Italy and Spain lead to the foundering of the EU on the rocks of the xenophobia they have helped generate. Otherwise they will be found out, having sold a concept which can only further demean and impoverish the UK (or maybe just Little England)."

For the whole article:-
http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2026008/little-england-conceit-brexit-full-display?utm_source=&utm_medium=&utm_campaign=SCMPSocialNewsfeed

Is it possible that PM Theresa May is casting herself in a similar role to the first Queen Elizabeth, and plans to enrol a 21st.C Francis Drake to enrich the Nation at the expense of Spaniards, Dutch and of course the Fro - err, French?

Won't it be great when we leave, the £ plummets further, and all those foreign owners of our energy supplies start charging us more. Your gas and electric bills will rocket, but you can always just sit in candlelight knitting a union jack, or George cross, jumper to keep warm as you hum the 2nd verse of God Save The Queen because you don't know the words.

The "Remain" vote is melting away like April snow

The result of the EU Referendum on June 23 is not going to change, of course, but the numbers still marching to the sound of the "Remain" drum are now falling rapidly by the wayside as Theresa May's cohorts press forward in pursuit of Total Brexit.

Among the highest-paid in business are people whose job-description may have various titles, but who are essentially visionaries - their job is to spot "trends". They are the people who advised against becoming a blacksmith when the horseless-carriage was invented. Who sold shares in typewriter manufacturers when word-processors appeared, and who deserted the giant company Kodak immediately upon learning of the digital camera.

This week a major British manufacturer, JCB, separated from the CBI "Confederation of British Industry" which has been a founder-member of the "Remain" contingent. Lord Bamford does not want to be subject to Colonial Rule from Brussels. He, and people like him, remember well how Britain treated its colonials in the days of Empire. No thanks.

The Remain cause perished on June 23rd 2016. It is History. Get over it, and prepare for quite a long period of belt-tightening until things settle down (as they will, but it'll be many years before that happens). Whilst tightening that belt, make sure to include within its loop the necks of BoJo/Gove/IDS/Fox/Davies and friends, won't you?

The Remain cause perished on June 23rd 2016. It is History. Get over it

Do you think if the vote had been 52% in favour of Remain, the Leave campaigners would have "got over it"? We already know that Nigel Farage described such a possible outcome as "unfinished business". Imagine if that had been the result, and the government had decided to implement 'Hard Remain' and made plans to join the Schengen area and to adopt the euro! I don't think the Leave boneheads would have rolled over and accepted that, do you?

The crash in the pound punctures the delusion that Brexit Britain will flourish

Extracts from an article by Aditya Chakrabortty:-

"Delusional thinking helped tip Britain out of the EU: the promise of those sunlit uplands of £350m weekly cashback and thousands of trading opportunities. Three months later and delusional thinking remains rife. Take the helium-filled unreality of the Conservative conference in Birmingham. There, the top draws were the Brexiteers, Liam Fox and David Davis; men whose careers were lost down the political U-bend just two years ago were now the star turns. But even outside the ideological hothouse, both political and media classes are peddling wild over-estimations of the British economy’s strengths, and complete fantasies about its future.

Let’s have some ugly facts. First of all, the crash in the pound is a reminder that Britain does not pay its way in the world. It buys far more goods and services from other countries than it sells to them. What the pound’s weakness will chiefly achieve is to stop Britons buying as much. The resulting rise in inflation will really hurt those relying on benefits, such as child and working tax credits and jobseekers’ allowance, frozen by Osborne.

We have a Britain that doesn’t make things, that can’t pay its way in the world and where two generations have been brought up believing that what your wages won’t pay, your credit will buy. As the promises for Brexit are broken and people get poorer, as the consumerist model breaks down, who do you think will pay the price? Without Brussels, the right still has one set of scapegoats left. They number the Muslim woman in the headscarf, the Pole in the wrong kebab shop, and the African cleaner on the nightbus."

For the whole article:-
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/11/crash-pound-delusion-brexit-britain-flourish