Latest polls

First topic message reminder :

Latest YouGov results are apparently:

Con 30%
Lab 42%
LDem 6%
UKIP 10%

So the drop in Labour's lead to single-digits in a different poll earlier this week was a 'blip', seemingly - the change was within the margin of error and not significant.

did something make you mad Redflag?

Just read what OW said Tory + Labour Unity gov't Stuart PASS ME THE SICK BUCKET

I know what it was Redflag, my previous post was meant to be a joke to you love.

Tory and labour low to mid 30's ukip low to mid teensat he moment.


labour and tory's at present polling will get around 270 to 290 seats, snp just under 50, ld's low to mid 20's, ukip between 1 and 5

now if there is a significant change then that will obviously change things somewhat.
it certainly does not look like any party is making a significant charge.

what appears certain at the moment is the tories will be the largest party but will probably be unable to form a majority government even with the ld's, whereas labour/snp and a. n. other might be able to.

Sorry Phillip but I hope your wrong about the polls, because Davy boy will form a gov't even if it is a minority gov't he will not give up power that easy. This will cause another G.E within the year but he will not care as there banker friends & hedge fund managers will make sure there war chest is full.

Throughout 2009, Cameron was demanding a general election – just four years after the previous one. He didn’t get it, but when the hypocrite crawled into power on the back of Nick Clegg, he immediately announced that parliaments – including this one – would be fixed at five years, and that was embodied in the Fixed Term Parliament Act of 2011.

It’s far from “certain” that the Tories will be the largest party after 7 May (the only things which are certain are death, taxes and Tories telling lies), but if Cameron forms another government he can’t rush off and hold another general election quickly; you might say he is hoist by his own petard. As a minority government, I doubt if he could get his FTPA repealed, and it would look like naked opportunism to even try. If his government collapsed, Ed Miliband would get the chance to form an administration, and as the SNP MPs wouldn’t risk the wrath of their supporters by doing anything to help the Tories, a minority Labour government would probably endure.

What seems “highly probable” at this point in time is that Labour will gain seats from the Tories, both Labour and the Tories will gain seats from the Lib Dems, and the SNP will all but wipe out Labour in Scotland. How many seats change hands in each of those scenarios will determine the result.

How will a minority tory government govern, without the support of Parliament, especially when they kick out Cameron and put in that squalid Turk?

Salmond's SNP governed as a minority in the Scottish Assembly. The Israeli government hasn't had a majority for years, and the Belgian government functioned for twelve months without a majority party. Britain had a Government of National Unity during WW2.

Where there's a will there's a way, and nobody wants a general election in May that is followed by another one right after the Annual Conference season.

Minorities can only govern if the majority fails to vote them down on issues, and the tory legislation means it must be followed by a Confidence vote, which they can refuse to join, meaning no election.   We can, if we wish, have a completely ineffective tory gang officially in charge.    Might be a laugh!

Not many of the country would be laughing IMO though Penderyn,except for those that did not vote maybe.

Compared to 2010, all the main parties saw their share of the UK vote go up in last week's general election:-

Tory share went up from 36.1% to 36.9%.

Labour share went up from 28.9% to 30.4%.

UKIP share went up from 3.1% to 12.6%.

SNP share went up from 1.6% to 4.7%.

Green Party share went up from 1% to 3.8%.

Apart from:-

Lib Dem share went down from 23.1% to 7.9%.

It really is a shame Ivan,that the voters of today do not think a little more prior to voting,and then if they really wanted the Tories out then they would have all done some strategic voting to do so.
It is also quite obvious where the lib Dem lost most of their seats and that was in the south west of England,which is normally their stronghold,but they were totally obliterated down there,with the Tories winning all bar Exeter which Labour won.

I think the polls are a FARCE stuart or somebody bought them tell LIES, plus all the smears that right wing RAGS inted about the Labour party. I just hope that those that voted Tory are ready for the deepcuts that the Tory party will bring down on there heads.

The polls are a farce Redflag,especially as most of them are by the tory press,
but Camerons loyal supporters during the election have already been given the elbow,shows what he thinks of his friends does it not,hate to be an enemy.

I think we all tend to assume the polls are honest, unlike the way they are interpreted. I've certainly based what I've said on that assumption. If you can't trust them either, I wonder if the voting-business is worth twopence.

Only the poll exit poll on the day/night of the results is the most accurate though Penderyn do you not think?

I agree stuart I will never look at the polls again in the same way, without thinking they have been bought and paid for.

Exactly Redflag,the only one that I will believe is the exit poll.

stuart torr wrote:Exactly Redflag,the only one that I will believe is the exit poll.

Which is all very well, but in that case, why do we need any polls at all except the election itself? Parties like to have some notion of how they are doing, I suppose.

The traditional weakness of any poll is that the people whose opinions they ask may respond by being economical with the truth.

Self-centred "me first" voting intentions are difficult to admit to in public.

The polls to me stink of the Tories having there finger in that pie, allowing the Labour party into a false sense of security, please think before you reply, the amount of money the Tories have from those that caused the financial ERUPTION in 2008 and added to that now the Nom-Doms have been saved from handing more of there money into the treasury because the Tories through fear and smear ousted what should have been a winning Labour party, there policies where good & fair but it seems the electorate prefer a Pretty Face so how did they elect aUgly Mug like Davy boy.

Since the polling organisations do other work, for which commercial firms pay them to increase their profits, it is difficult to see the crookery as built in, and surely, if it was a specially-paid fix, someone'd talk.    I can believe any evil of tories, but we have to weigh likelihood, I think.

Penderyn the Tories would do anything to get back into power, because they di not want there donors to pay the full amount of the tax they should be paying plus a pund to a penny those on the high rate of tax will get another 5p tax reduction bringing it down too 40p in the £.

There is also the question about all there dodgy deals they have done with the people that pour money into Tory party funds plus the truth about our NHS on how they are trying to privatize it because most of the Tory MPs have shares in the private health sector.

We got it wrong. Why?

From an article by Peter Kellner (President of YouGov):-

“Here is my initial, tentative suggestion. It comes down to human psychology. Voting is a different exercise from answering a poll. It is a choice with consequences, not just an expression of a view. This year, as in 1992, the Tories have a weak image. They are widely thought to be out of touch and for the rich. But, at the margin, there may be some people who both have a poor view of the party but nevertheless think it will run the economy better than Labour. They are ‘shy Tories’ not because they are unwilling to admit their choice of party to a stranger but because they really would like to support someone else but, faced with a ballot paper in the privacy of the polling booth, simply can’t.

22,000 voters responded to the broadcasters’ exit poll. They were given a replica ballot paper and asked to complete it, fold the paper and drop it in a replica ballot box. Most ‘shy Tories’ were unwilling to ‘lie’ at that moment by putting their cross against a different candidate; so the exit poll came closer to the result.”

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/11/we-got-it-wrong-why/

I was shocked when I seen the exit poll & still cannot understand the voters, since they knew the cuts the Tories would bring in if elected in May.    I will say that anybody coming on this forum maoning about the cuts from this majority Tory gov't will get the sharp end of my tongue, Scotland nor Wales votes Tory so once again it is England that votes the Tories in, no wonder the Scots nearly voted to leave the UK will Wales be the next part of the UK want to leave the UK ??

I said exactly the same Redflag regarding Wales over a week ago.

Several centuries of forelock-tugging tradition seem hard to shake off when people are asked about their voting intentions.

The rich man's jokes are always funny.
There may be dire consequences to rocking the boat.
Better safe than sorry, eh?
Steady as she goes, bosun. Aye, aye, Sir.

But not a word to anyone else, mind.

You get all this when ordering things from a supermarket online OW, I am logged in as stu,yet they always call me mr so and so, I get fed up with it, why do they not just call me stu?

Redflag Today at 11:40 am
I was shocked when I seen the exit poll & still cannot understand the voters, since they knew the cuts the Tories would bring in if elected in May.

The problem is that the voting public did not know the cuts the Tories will be making........Yes figures have been bandied about but which departments/budgets would be cut will not be fully known until after July.......Of course voters will have hoped, in vane, that the services they rely and need will not be the ones hit.......

In today's Mail...(wash my mouth out with soap and water) there are two reports regarding cut to the defense budget...One that Literally cutting Britain's Nimrod fleet back in 2010 has meant that we are no longer able to track Russian Subs and then another report about who much Gideon wants to cut further into the defense budget......

Back to using just swords and knives soon eh Astradt.

oftenwrong wrote:Several centuries of forelock-tugging tradition seem hard to shake off when people are asked about their voting intentions.

The rich man's jokes are always funny.
There may be dire consequences to rocking the boat.
Better safe than sorry, eh?  
Steady as she goes, bosun.  Aye, aye, Sir.

But not a word to anyone else, mind.

It's because people feel stuck, I think. Back in the days when people really tugged their forelocks, the railways came (Mrs Gaskell was bothered about it) and everyone with any longing for self-respect escaped. In Penmarc, where my paternal ancestors came from, the 'Welsh' workers put their hats back on and left for Cardiff or the Rhondda en masse, and produced the bolshy likes of me. The trouble now seems to be the lack of dramatic signs of liberation. Perhaps we should be making that central. Change is the one certainty, yet so many of the populace believe 'you can't change anything'.

astradt1 wrote:The problem is that the voting public did not know the cuts the Tories will be making........Yes figures have been bandied about but which departments/budgets would be cut will not be fully known until after July.......Of course voters will have hoped, in vane, that the services they rely and need will not be the ones hit.......

In today's Mail...(wash my mouth out with soap and water) there are two reports regarding cut to the defense budget...One that Literally cutting Britain's Nimrod fleet back in 2010 has meant that we are no longer able to track Russian Subs and then another report about who much Gideon wants to cut further into the defense budget......

I hope you used CARBOLIC when you washed your mouth out astradt    I do not know how they did not know it was all over the right wing rags & right wing supporting TV both (Sky & BBC) are allying themselves with the rich posh boys.

You say it Redflag.

Ivan wrote:We got it wrong. Why?

From an article by Peter Kellner (President of YouGov)

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/11/we-got-it-wrong-why/

Mr. Kellner's apologia is not quite the grovelling exculpation we might reasonably have expected, and does not inspire a lot of confidence in any similar attempts to predict the outcome, in due course, of Mr. Cameron's Europe In or Out plebiscite whenever it comes.

Accordingly I consider myself equally capable of getting it wrong, so confidently predict that the result will be:  Should we stay in?  51% YES    39% NO   (with the rest not having understood the question).

If you like, you can cut this out and keep it safe until 2017, for a good laugh at my expense and/or that of Mr. Kellner.

Very close I believe OW, no-one will be laughing at your expense I am sure.

Change is the one certainty, yet so many of the populace believe 'you can't change anything'.
Penderyn - liked your post - you may have something there - I wonder how the idea of change could be expressed as something people would vote for?
Maybe you have more to say on this point?

I think by 2017 Scotland will have left the UK boatlady, so it will not matter what the rest of the UK do whether or not they stay or go in the EU question, if I had a vote I would vote to leave because I do not believe in what they say about TTIP, if all was honest and above board the negoiations would be out in the open and our NHS would be on the frontpage of the trade agreement but it is not.

It's possible to think of the United Kingdom in terms of a classic family situation. The rebellious child extracts concessions from its parents by constant talk of leaving home, with no intention of actually doing so. It's just a bargaining chip.

The SNP clearly intend to extract the maximum advantage from their unexpectedly strong current representation at Westminster, in the full knowledge of which side their bread is buttered.

And who can blame them?

I think you have got the SNP wrong OW, you will see Salmond pushing Nicola Sturgeon to one side if Scotland says yes to Independence, because he wants to be just like Davy boy with all the pomp & cermony that goes with it.

With Sturgeon as his side and the fall guy when things fo wrong in Scotland.

I was polled by YouGov about my voting intentions for the Labour leadership and deputy leadership elections, and I see that the results of its latest survey have just been published:-

Jeremy Corbyn 53%
Andy Burnham 21%
Yvette Cooper 18%
Liz Kendall 8%

If the pollsters have got it so badly wrong again and Corbyn doesn’t win, it will surely be time for them to buy crystal balls and Tarot cards and seek work in fairgrounds.  

We are probably mere hours away from the formation of a "STOP JEREMY" faction within the Labour Party.