What future will the Lib Dems have by 2015?

First topic message reminder :

The Lib-Dems will not let Nick Clegg lead them into the next general election because Clegg will definitely be a liability.

The Lib-Dems won't have their leadership challenge too near the general election because this will be seen as a vote grabber.

The Lib-Dems must have their leadership challenge ages before the next general election to be seen as a genuine change of leadership.

So, when do you think their leadership challenge will be ?

Clegg's "keynote speech" to the Party Faithful in Glasgow effectively acknowledged that they had erred in joining the Tory-led coalition, but asking for public understanding.

Not an argument which I find convincing. We have learned to recognise that most politicians are self-serving.

At the same time OW of asking the public for understanding and their vote in 2015, then telling us they would go back into coalition with the bloody Tories and more than likely not stop them from raining more blows down on the working poor.

In all justice, the Liberal Democratic Party should be eliminated after the General Election of May 2015.

But when have a British electorate behaved logically?

Redflag wrote (on another thread):-
If Labour do not get a majority they could go into coalition with the NHA Party

The NHA Party is of course very worthy, but it will merely take votes away from Labour. It may well get one MP: Dr Richard Taylor, an 80-year-old retired consultant, is likely to regain Wyre Forest, the seat which he represented from 2001 to 2010. The present incumbent is Mark Garnier, that nice Tory fellow who talks about “dog-end voters in the outlying regions of the country”. (I don’t know whether he considers that his constituents, living on the borders of Worcestershire and Shropshire, fit his description!)

https://cuttingedge2.forumotion.co.uk/t572p320-is-there-any-alternative-to-the-jaundiced-tory-attitudes#59237

There isn’t a snowflake’s chance in hell that the NHA Party will be in a position to form a coalition with anyone next May. And, thankfully, I can’t see UKIP ending up with more than four or five MPs. From recent polling, the most likely scenarios are either a tiny Labour win (UK Polling Report is currently predicting an overall majority of 10), or a Labour/SNP coalition or ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement. On the other hand, the Lib Dems probably won’t be wiped out as many of us have been predicting, since they are good at hanging on to seats they already hold, even in by-elections (as Eastleigh showed).

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/12/theyre-fifth-place-so-why-arent-lib-dems-panicking

So it‘s just possible that the Lib Dems could be left with enough seats to be in a position to join another coalition, but with whom? It would be the height of cynicism for them to join a Labour-led government and help to reverse measures such as the bedroom tax and the NHS Act - after they helped the Tories to pass them. On the other hand, would they want to team up with the toxic Tories again? They seem to have been trying to distance themselves from their coalition partners recently, but I doubt if it will fool many left-inclined people into voting for them next May. Yes, I think both the Tories and the Lib Dems are unscrupulous and unprincipled enough to give us a re-run of the last five years if the result of the election throws up the opportunity.

I agree with you Ivan, especially if sneaky Clegg remains leader. He
will take any kind of power from anywhere, anyone and any Political Party.

Ivan wrote:.... There isn’t a snowflake’s chance in hell that the NHA Party will be in a position to form a coalition with anyone next May....  From recent polling, the most likely scenarios are either a tiny Labour win (UK Polling Report is currently predicting an overall majority of 10), or a Labour/SNP coalition or ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement....

I think both the Tories and the Lib Dems are unscrupulous and unprincipled enough to give us a re-run of the last five years if the result of the election throws up the opportunity.

Can't argue with any of that.  Today's news that the charismatic Salmond is proposing to jump back into the Westminster cesspool suggests that a Labour/Scotnat coalition may be a distinct possibility.

Wha hae?

So how do we respond to this one? Lib Dem blogger Mark Pack argues that the Tories would have been even worse if his party hadn’t stopped them from doing the following:-

- Inheritance tax cuts for millionaires
- Scrapping help with housing costs for young people
- Weakening arrest warrants for people who have fled overseas
- Firing workers at will, without any reasons given
- Regional pay penalising public sector workers outside London and the South East
- The Snoopers’ Charter
- Bringing back the old O-level / CSE divide
- Profit-making in state schools
- Cutting the time child minders can give to each child
- Cutting new nursery buildings
- Stopping geography teachers telling children about how we can tackle climate change
- Axing human rights from national curriculum
- Ditching the Human Rights Act
- Watering down the ban on hunting by allowing 40 dogs to flush out a fox
- Weakening the protections in the Equalities Act
- Renewing Trident in this parliament
- Scrapping Natural England
- Cutting investment in green energy
- Nationwide immigration checks on all new tenants and lodgers

http://www.markpack.org.uk/129190/what-the-lib-dems-have-stopped-the-tories-doing/

I'm sure the LibDems did wield some influence behind the scenes - maybe the bitterness against them is that they manifestly failed to block measures that seem to have condemned many poorer citizens to penury, destitutions and ultimately in some cases to death - they made a number of promises to the electorate which they failed to keep - to me it's strange that this apologia is arriving on the eve of a General Election.

So--- thanks LibDems for the little bit you did - but it was not enough - standing out against the Tories, even at the expense of your ministerial perks might well have prevented even more Tory excesses.

This boy is only eight years old, yet he can calculate the debt he will have because of Lib Dem policies when he leaves university:-


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CAIxJfUXEAAnfwV.jpg

Ivan wrote:The NHA Party is of course very worthy, but it will merely take votes away from Labour. It may well get one MP: Dr Richard Taylor, an 80-year-old retired consultant, is likely to regain Wyre Forest, the seat which he represented from 2001 to 2010. The present incumbent is Mark Garnier, that nice Tory fellow who talks about “dog-end voters in the outlying regions of the country”. (I don’t know whether he considers that his constituents, living on the borders of Worcestershire and Shropshire, fit his description!)

https://cuttingedge2.forumotion.co.uk/t572p320-is-there-any-alternative-to-the-jaundiced-tory-attitudes#59237

There isn’t a snowflake’s chance in hell that the NHA Party will be in a position to form a coalition with anyone next May. And, thankfully, I can’t see UKIP ending up with more than four or five MPs. From recent polling, the most likely scenarios are either a tiny Labour win (UK Polling Report is currently predicting an overall majority of 10), or a Labour/SNP coalition or ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement. On the other hand, the Lib Dems probably won’t be wiped out as many of us have been predicting, since they are good at hanging on to seats they already hold, even in by-elections (as Eastleigh showed).

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/12/theyre-fifth-place-so-why-arent-lib-dems-panicking

Sorry Ivan got to disagree with you on this one the NHA party is the nicer of the small parties, you know yourself what the SNP are after and it would be too big a price for Labour to pay even for supporting the Labour party on certain policies, all the SNP want to do is cause trouble in the HOC so the 55% of Scots that voted NO last September will want to vote yes for Independence.

As for the Greens they are a joke thanks to Natalie Bennet, Ukip want us out of the EU plus they are a shower of second hand Tories, DUP will always side with the Tories and the rest of the small parties may not have enough seats in the HOC to help our Labour party. That is the sole reason for me going around the UK helping the Labour party so that Ed Miliband can give Salmond the two finger salute that should spoil wee ecks happiness.

I rather doubt that Green voters are into the fuhrer-cult yet. It isn't all pervasive.

All I am saying Penderyn is that Natalie Bennet has made the Green party with her interview Gaffs

Redflag. I’m sure the one-issue NHA Party is a decent outfit, but it's unlikely to win more than one seat. Dr Clive Peedell might have stood a chance in a more winnable seat, but he’s standing in Witney and won’t beat Cameron. I’m afraid that in terms of any coalition deals, the NHA is as irrelevant as the Green Party.

An idiotic Labour MP called Gisela Stuart has advocated a Labour/Tory coalition, which would no doubt see 95% of us leave the Labour Party within 24 hours. Ms Stuart is German and has observed something similar in her country of origin, where the CDU and the SDP are in coalition. Talk of such an arrangement here just plays into the hands of those who say that Labour and the Tories “are all the same”, and it would do to Labour what the last five years have done to the Liberal Democrats.

The SNP will, in all probability, be the third largest party in the next parliament, and whether we like it or not, an effective government may only be possible with its tacit support. Despite Grant Shapps’ lies on ‘The Daily Politics’ last week, the SNP will never join a Westminster government because it only wants a Scottish one.

We can still hope that with a good campaign Labour might scrape a majority at the election, and we probably would have done without the SNP surge after the referendum. But we must be realistic and accept that the support of another party may well be necessary. Contrary to what you’ve said, the DUP is very opposed to the bedroom tax and might support Labour, but it will probably only have around 10 MPs. According to the latest Electoral Calculus poll, the Liberal Democrats may only keep 14 of their 57 MPs, and would you want Labour to work with people who have betrayed so many of their principles and enabled the Tories to do so many heinous things? For me the best option for any arrangement is with another pro-EU, social democratic party which hates the Tories – and that’s the SNP.

(P.S. Hope you have a good time in Carlisle. Please give my best wishes to Lee Sherriff, who has been one of my Twitter friends for several years.)

Ivan Its because of the Scottish Labour situation that I am hoping that most of Labours seats in the HOC come from England and part of the reason for me going down to give English Labour MPs a hand, I would not trust the SNP as far as I could throw them & that is not far. It worries me that the SNP will demand a high price from Ed for any backing they would give the Labour party in a hung Parliament, as you know all the SNP are interested in is Independence for Scotland and are still on about trident for all the trouble we have from Putin and ISIS in the middle east.

So mucso I have a second reason for Labour to win majorityin the HOC, I want to move to England to live because the SNP will never stop until they get what they WANT not what is best for Scots.

Redflag, it's true that any party able to swing a parliamentary majority at will could prove an albatross around our collective  necks, but for so long as (e.g.) SNP policy-makers continue to think that a truly independent  Scotland can also be financially autonomous they will be a sideshow, sharing the naughty step with Lib-Dems.

Its not the naughty step the SNP need OW more like Oblivion in the world of politics, that is why I am hoping that the NHA party get more seats than 1 seat in the HOC. I would feel more comfortable if Labour went into coalition with the NHA party all they would demand is a safe & secure NHS which is one of Labours policies anyway.

All I certainly hope is that the two faced lib/dems get very few seats because then they will be of little assistance to their two faced counterparts the blues, when and only if there is a coalition government, which I sincerely hope not.

The best UK government of my lifetime

A blog by Scottish Lib Dem Caron Lindsay:-

"Nick Clegg has had to take some abuse...... It pains me to see the vitriol directed at someone who is actually one of the most consistent, straightforward, decent people I’ve met in politics."  

https://caronlindsay.wordpress.com/2015/03/30/the-best-uk-government-of-my-lifetime/#comment-5480

I can only think she's been living on another planet for the last 5 years

Where is Caron Lindsay looking ??   Clegg deserves every piece of vitriol that people have hurled at him after jumping into bed with the Tories, then went through the yes lobbies with every nasty bill the Tories have brought into law.

Seconded Redflag.

Does this surprise anyone?


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/apr/15/election-2015-live-lib-dems-ukip-unveil-party-manifestos-live

I do think this election is getting exceptionally nasty - I think these people would rather vote for Attila the Hun than for the intelligent, personable Mr Milliband

Well we all know what two faced morons they are don't we, that just proves it even more does it not.

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Well , the Personal Pledgers are dead in the water. Time to keep our nerve and watch the tories split over Europe.

Wonder how many of the LibDems will defect to the Tories?

We know the answer to the thread question now - there are only 8 Lib Dem MPs left, all men. Are you expecting some of them to defect to the Tories, or were you thinking of Lib Dem party members?

The Lib Dems have been massacred for being part of a rancid coalition, yet the Tories, the senior partner in that government, have been rewarded with a parliamentary majority. I suppose it comes down to the fact that those people who approved of the direction of travel for the last five years voted Tory, while those who weren't happy voted for one of the parties outside the coalition. There really was no clear reason for anyone to vote for the Lib Dems, so most people didn't!

I was wondering if Clegg, anyway, might think of crossing the floor to join the Tories - although he'd be a backbencher, maybe being part of the government would compensate for that - and he clearly has no problem with any of their policies

If Clegg crosses the floor he will bring his party further down boatlady, I would watch what comes out from the Lib-Dems that lost there seats things that the general public where not told and the vitriol they will have towards Clegg and the Tories, Clegg already knows how he won his seat Tory voters voting Lib-Dem otherwise Oliver Coppard would have won hands down.

Redflag wrote:If Clegg crosses the floor he will bring his party further down

I'm not convinced about this. I suspect that there would be quite a few former Lib Dem supporters for whom it would confirm that Clegg's ambition brought disaster to the party and it removes the taint from other party members.

He's not deputy PM any more and will soon not be LibDem - leader - perhaps he will see his future with the proper blue Tories and as you say Norm , this may help remove some of the stain from the LibDems

In my eyes that stain will never be lifted boatlady, I will never forgive the Lib-Dems or the SNP for they used dirty tactics just like the Tories they were telling people on the doorstep that the G.E vote was a stepping stone to another Referendum that is how they got so many votes in Scotland, which will come back and bite them on the BUTT within 18 months or perhaps by then the Tory cuts will have bitten hard then everyone will want Independence. I lost my Labour MP too and it will be the G.E here in Scotland next May I hope the people of Scotland have woken up to the SNP LIES by then and votes them out of Holyrood.

They could not get away with that bobby because it would be all over the web, plus there names are too familiar to the people of the UK, what I think is that some of the Lib-Dems that are left will cross the floor to the Labour party hoping that will wash away the stain on the Lib-Dems.

Red Said: "They could not get away with that bobby"
Why not Red, the Tories have got away with much worse, much of which has been in our faces. They have lied, cheated, nonced, Created thousands to become depressives, caused many to commit suicide, inflicted the poor with unfair taxes i.e the bedroom tax and the rise in VAT (yet again), they have borrowed more than Labour did, they have failed to meet hardly any of their own targets, they lost Britain its triple a credit rating, and we all know what they have in store for OUR NHS. The list is endless, yet despite this, many of the British electorate still believe them to be the best of a crappy bunch,
If the Tories can get away with that, the Lib Dems will also given a short amount of time rise again, I doubt it will be to where they were pre election, but with more lies and promises to break, they will I'm sure be back.

But will the people of the UK believe them this time bobby, because I will never believe a word the Tories or the Lib-Dems say even if its fifty years on from now. The Labour party need to start using the dirty trick that the Tories have used since 2010 give them a taste of there own medicine I bet thedy will scream like Pigs.

As for the Lib-Dems will any of them want to risk that again most of those that lost there seats where in very safe seats, but which one will come out and air the Tory dirty lenen with the people of the UK.

Redflag wrote:They could not get away with that bobby because it would be all over the web, plus there names are too familiar to the people of the UK, what I think is that some of the Lib-Dems that are left will cross the floor to the Labour party hoping that will wash away the stain on the Lib-Dems.

I couldn't have named them without looking it up, Redflag.

How many of these could we have listed last week?

Tim Farron
Norman Lamb
Alistair Carmichael
Greg Mulholland
Tom Brake
John Pugh
Mark Williams

Oh, and someone named Clegg.

I tend to think it will be Andrew George that will spill the beans OW, he was in the safe seat of St Ives in Cornwall, plus the Lib-Dems that are left will not be as polite to the Tories now they will be joining the opposition benches but the Tories will return that and say its sour grapes on the Lib-Dems side.

Nobody expects the tories to be other than treacherous lying scum, and they vote for them to spite their neighbours. The Liberals gave 'personal pledges' and broke them. If I gave a personal pledge I'd have to be at least mildly tortured before I broke it, but those buggers have such contempt for people they thought they'd forget. If you want to behave like scum, be a proper tory!

I think the Tories helped Clegg back into the HOC is that hoping he will not spill the beans on the truth about what went on within the coalition but Danny Alexander might be willing because he will find out the Tories helped Clegg to keep his seat so the little green monster may pop up.