Does new economic data show that austerity does not work?

First topic message reminder :

Adding in new economic data shows that the so-called Austerity economic policy alone does not work. It's clear too me that its totally unsustainable as it destroys countries competiveness while draining confidence within business while driving down not only living standers that in turn shrinks demand. Do you believe the Tories will stick with there only economic policy up-to the next GE? if they do, I happen to believe most people will call time on the Tory party.





Growth Forecast downgraded for the Fifth time by (OBR in November 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 2nd Time by Bank of England 1.4% August 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 3rd Time to 1.7% (Budget 2011)
Growth forecast Downgraded for 3rd Time to by Ernst & Young from1.7% to 0.9% Jan 2012
Growth forecast Downgraded for 2nd Time to by CBI to 1.3% July 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 4th Time to by CBI to 1.2% Sept 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 4th Time to by CBI to 0.9% Feb 2012
Growth forecast Downgraded for 3rd Time to by I.M.F to 1.3% July 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 4th Time to by I.M.F to 0.6% Jan 2012
Growth forecast in the Tory budget down for a 3rd time to 1.7% (Budget 2011
Growth forecast in the City as low as 1.2% 2011
Disposable income has seen its Sharpest fall in 30 years or 1980s (ONS)
Annual Earnings Growth remains at 1.9% in February 2012
GDP The last cycle of robust growth in potential output of 2.9% was 1997 to 2006 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
GDP when the Tory-Liberal coalition come to power ,the UK was growing at an annual rate of 4% (OBR)
GDP sluggish at just 0.5% for April 2011 (OBR)
GDP City Growth forecast for 2012 are 0.3% to 0.4% (FT Sept 2011)
GDP Growth for forecast set by bank of England at 2.0% 2010
GDP Contracted by 0.5% in the Q4 in 2010 (OBR)
GDP is 0.8% lower than in November 2010 (OBR)
GDP IS 0.2% lower than MARCH 2011 (OBR)
GDP Growth Contracted by 0.5% Q4 2010 (OBR)
GDP Growth April 2011 was Q1 0.5% (OBR)
GDP Growth July 2011 was just Q2 0.2% (OBR)
GDP Growth starts Jan Q1 2012 at just 0.2% (OBR)
GDP Growth December 2011 Contracted by 0.2% Q4 (OBR)
GDP April's figures have just clawed back last years 0.5% contraction in 2010 (OBR)
GDP is 1.1% lower than the OBR thought it would be in Sept 2010 (OBR)
GDP Growth is now lower than 1930s, 1970s, 1980s 1990s (OBR)
GDP UK is 3.6% blow its pre-financial crisis 2008 (H.M.Trasury)
National Debt hits £1.03 Trillion for the first Time Jan 2012 (OBR)
National Debt actual debt after repurchase by Bank of England is £650 Billion (Guardian on B of E figures)
National Debt Coalition & Bank of England QE for 2011 was £75 billion (OBR/Bank of England)
National Debt Coalition & Bank of England QE for 2012 was £50 billion (OBR/Bank of England)
National Debt total Quantitative Easing is £325 Billion in February 2012 (OBR/Bank of England)
National Debt private + public sector debt totals some 500% 2011 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
National Debt Tory Party forecast National debt will fall by just £54 Billion by 2015 (Tory party website)
UK Economic Decline is two and half times that of the entire Euro zone (ONS & H.M.Trasury) 2011
UK Economic Decline is 77% of the EU’s decline for 2011 (H.M.Trasury)
UK Economy shrank by 5.0% in 2009 the biggest calendar year fall since 1921 ( NIE)
UK Economy shrank by 6.3% in 2011 the biggest calendar year fall on record by October 2011 ( NIE)
UK Pound exchange rate has fallen by 21.0% against the Dollar 2011 (H.M.Trasury)
UK lose market share accelerated from 2008 to 2010. (Oxford Economic )
Government Borrowing Tory-Liberal coalition come to power stated an additional £111 Billion 2009 (OBR)
Government Borrowing Net borrowing was just £7.3 Billion in 2010 (H.M.Trasury)
Government Borrowing forecast up by £54 Billion (Budget 2011)
Government Borrowing overshot in Q4 by £127 Billion (OBR)
Government Borrowing overshot in Jan 2012 by £157 Billion (ONS)
Government Borrowing topped the £10 billion by just Feb 2011 (OBR)
Government Borrowing to be £10 billion higher every year from 2012 (OBR)
Government Borrowing in Jan 2012 was £13.7 billion for December 2011 overshooting (OBR)
Private Pension deficit up from £24.5 Billion to £31.7 Billion by Sept 2011 (ONS)
Private Pension Deficit £158 billion December 2011 (ONS)
Private Pension deficit £255.2 form £222 billion in Jan 2012 (N.M.A & ONS)
UK 10 Year bonds, the Historical high of 12.84% set in April 1990 (H.M.Trasury)
UK 10 year Bonds, Record low of 1.97% set in Jan 2012 (H.M.Trasury)
UK 10 Year Bonds, Yields decline by 1.47% from 1989 to 2012 (H.M.Trasury)
UK 10 Year Bonds, averaged 6.28% (H.M.Trasury)
Unemployment up to record 17 year high (ONS)
Unemployment record was set in 1981 at 2.6 million or 9.8% of the Workforce
Unemployment for woman rose for the 10th month in a row March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment increased by 20,000 the highest three month figure since Jan 1997 (ONS)
Unemployment is now 7.7% of economically active population March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment forecast in the budget set to rise to 8.1% in 2012 (Budget 2011)
Unemployment is was2.6 million in March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment is now 2.8 million in December 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment Claimants increased by 12,400 in March 2011 to April 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment Woman Claimants increased by 9,300 to 474,400 in March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment Men Claimants increased by 3,100 to 994,200 in March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment 16-24 hit 1.043 million in Q3, the highest since records began in 1992. 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment benefit payments rose by 1,200 to 1.6 million by December 2012 (ONS)
Unemployment benefit payments up to 1980s levels (ONS)
Business failures in 2010 was 23,000 (ONS)
Business failures in 2011 was 20,900 or 6.5% (ONS)
Bankers Bonus for £14 billion for 2011 (FT & Guardian & BBC)
Manufacturing was flat Feb 2011 (ONS)
Manufacturing production out put 1.5% decline in April 2011 (ONS)
Manufacturing touted as the engine of the economy fall by 0.3% in July 2011 (ONS)
Manufacturing jobless in Q4 2011 to Jan 2012 was up to 395,000
Manufacturing production Cable & Wireless Communication slumped nearly 17% in 2011 (FT)
BDOs output index dropped from Decembers 91.4% to February 2012 to 91.2%
Exports fell in Jan 2011 (HMCR)
Exports Vs Imports increased by 14.7% in October 2011 (HMCR)
Factory gate prices rose 0.9% between February & March 2011 (ONS)
Factory gate prices rose at an annual rate of 5.3% in May 2011 (ONS)
Factory gate prices in December 2011 to 4.8% (ONS)
Factory gate prices fell in January 2012 to 4.1% (ONS)
Factory gate Producers input price inflation in January 2012 is 7% (ONS)
Mortgage & Credit card debt will soar to £2,126 billion by 2015 (ONS)
Mortgage debt now accounts is around £21,000 per person April 2011 (ONS)
Home repossessions peak set in 1991 at 19,000 homes (council of mortgage lenders)
Home repossession forecast to rise to 45,000 in 2012 (council of mortgage lenders )
Construction industry suffered a 0.5% fall in output from November to January 2012 (ONS)
North sea Oil Tax up by £2 Billion for 2011, with HMCR taking 88% in Tax (ONS)
The Worst squeeze on living standards for 90 years
Consumer spending accounts for 65% of the UK economy April 2011 (OMS)
Consumer spending shows the biggest fell in total sales since the survey began in 1995 (KPMG)
Consumer spending has fallen by 1.7% for four consecutive Q in 2011. (ONS)
Personal Spending shows it first drop in personal spending power since the Thatcher slump in 1980s (KMPG)
Petrol down by 1p with VAT up by 2% in the Budget 2011
Petrol prices average increased by 52% up to March 2010
Food Prices rose 7.4% in the biggest rise since 2009 (ONS)
Food Prices rising at 4.9% rising faster than any other OECD in Jan 2012 member (UBS & OECD)
CPI Inflation increase to 3.3% December 2010 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
CPI has put the cost of living double its target from 4% in Jan 2011 to 4.4% in April 2011 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
CPI September 2011 rises by 5.2% (ONS)
CPI October 2011 fall by just 0.2% to 5.0% (ONS)
CPI January 2012 fell to 4.8% from 5.0% (Bank of England)
RPI has gone from 5.1% to 5.5% the highest since 1991 (ONS)
RPI Jan 2011 leapt to CPI 4% from 3.7% with Market Oracle putting real inflation at 6.6% 2012 .

Mel wrote:Good point OW. However, that does not mean we cannot attempt to expose her hypocritical /lie.

no it does not Mel. what's more we should do just that in my view

tlttf wrote:A simple reality check?

Obama vs Balls
Jonathan Jones 5:36pm

What do Ed Balls and Mitt Romney have in common? They both want you to think that Barack Obama is spending government money like never before. For Mitt Romney, it’s an attack: he wants to make Obama a Big Government bogeyman who’s failing to tackle America’s deficit. ‘I will lead us out of this debt and spending inferno,’ the Republican nominee promises. For Ed Balls, it’s an example for Britain to follow: ‘I will lead us into this debt and spending inferno’, the shadow chancellor promises. Well, essentially.

But the Obama camp is pushing back hard against such claims, highlighting a Wall Street Journal article yesterday titled ‘Obama spending binge never happened’. In fact, based on the latest figures from the Congressional Budget Office, Obama has cut federal spending by 0.9 per cent in real terms from 2010/11 to 2011/12.

Ed Balls argues that George Osborne should look to the US President for inspiration, but it seems he already is. UK government spending has fallen by an almost identical 0.9 per cent in real terms from 2010/11 to 2011/12. And it’s projected to fall a further 0.5 per cent in 2012/13, compared to Obama’s 2.6 per cent. So if Balls thinks Osborne should be more like Obama, he’s really advocating faster spending cuts. But I'm sure someone's been warning against going too far, too fast...

And this is good then is it..... net debt excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions was £1006.3 billion, equivalent to 64.8 per cent of GDP
this month's figures include a large one-off transfer to Government of £28 billion, as part of the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan

Red Cat Woman wrote:

tlttf wrote:A simple reality check?

Obama vs Balls
Jonathan Jones 5:36pm

What do Ed Balls and Mitt Romney have in common? They both want you to think that Barack Obama is spending government money like never before. For Mitt Romney, it’s an attack: he wants to make Obama a Big Government bogeyman who’s failing to tackle America’s deficit. ‘I will lead us out of this debt and spending inferno,’ the Republican nominee promises. For Ed Balls, it’s an example for Britain to follow: ‘I will lead us into this debt and spending inferno’, the shadow chancellor promises. Well, essentially.

But the Obama camp is pushing back hard against such claims, highlighting a Wall Street Journal article yesterday titled ‘Obama spending binge never happened’. In fact, based on the latest figures from the Congressional Budget Office, Obama has cut federal spending by 0.9 per cent in real terms from 2010/11 to 2011/12.

Ed Balls argues that George Osborne should look to the US President for inspiration, but it seems he already is. UK government spending has fallen by an almost identical 0.9 per cent in real terms from 2010/11 to 2011/12. And it’s projected to fall a further 0.5 per cent in 2012/13, compared to Obama’s 2.6 per cent. So if Balls thinks Osborne should be more like Obama, he’s really advocating faster spending cuts. But I'm sure someone's been warning against going too far, too fast...

And this is good then is it..... net debt excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions was £1006.3 billion, equivalent to 64.8 per cent of GDP
this month's figures include a large one-off transfer to Government of £28 billion, as part of the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan

very well posted RCW

The Pension Funds of Trade Unions and other large employers' staff used to be visible assets like Commercial premises producing steady rents, shareholdings in Industry and Finance and even valuable art works.

Now the "Funds" are electronic records held on computer, readily transferable hither and yon at the whim of a Government department.

oftenwrong wrote:The Pension Funds of Trade Unions and other large employers' staff used to be visible assets like Commercial premises producing steady rents, shareholdings in Industry and Finance and even valuable art works.

Now the "Funds" are electronic records held on computer, readily transferable hither and yon at the whim of a Government department.

Totally agree with that OW.

Ah, back to the days when an handshake sealed a deal, when people didn't know what was occurring in the next village never mind around the world. The good old days when everybody sat around the one black and white telly picking scabs from the kids knees and throwing them at the dog. Yes the good old days before when a fortnight in a caravan near a beach was a deserved holiday eagerly looked forward to. When being the only gay in the village meant you were happy.

A simple solution to the country's problems could be; buy british. Yet nobody does. Funny world innit?

tlttf wrote:Ah, back to the days when an handshake sealed a deal, when people didn't know what was occurring in the next village never mind around the world. The good old days when everybody sat around the one black and white telly picking scabs from the kids knees and throwing them at the dog. Yes the good old days before when a fortnight in a caravan near a beach was a deserved holiday eagerly looked forward to. When being the only gay in the village meant you were happy.

A simple solution to the country's problems could be; buy british. Yet nobody does. Funny world innit?

The only party taking us back is the Tory party. as they still live in the past.

But I Believe we still make the following

Total Machine Support has 35 years of experience in the Industrial Machinery profession, and provides machine tool support to manufacturers within the UK.

H.F.S. Morgan cars

Westfield has sold over 12 000 cars world wide since 1983 and currently produce over 400 cars a year

Lotus

Coeur de Lion one of the very best of BRITISH designer menswear.

S.E.H Kelly makes garments with the makers of the British Isles.

Caswick is a leading manufacturer and supplier of plastic encapsulated steps, sealants, and ancillary products

Thomas Flinn & Co., have been providing high quality saws all over the world

The UK's Largest Roller and Belt Conveyor Manufacturer Conveyor Units Ltd, have been successfully manufacturing conveyor equipment

Contactum A British manufacturer of Electrical Wiring Accessories, Circuit Protection and Control Equipments synonymous with Quality & reliability.

Just4kidz, one the finest range of children's furniture available today. Just4kidz is brought to you by the CHURCHFIELD group, the Cheshire based furniture specialists

Access Chemicals Ltd provides Chemical products to clients throughout the UK and the world

Airsprung Beds have been manufacturing beds in Wiltshire

ULMA Packaging Ltd is a long established business offering packaging equipment, to clients throughout the UK and Ireland.

Robojet Ltd has over 30 years experience in the Manufacturing sector

Ercol a classic name in British furniture

Hand crafted luxury sofas & traditional upholstered furniture

John Bradshaw Ltd supplies electric vehicles to clients throughout World.

RSL Plastics Ltd provides point of sale display units to clients throughout the UK

Benchmark Furniture is handmade by craftsmen at Benchmark’s workshop in West Berkshire. The designs are exclusive

Burleigh- a family business established in 1851 is still manufacturing a pure English earthenware product in the 21st Century. Fabulous new designs.

Scorpion Mouldings has many years of experience in the plastics sector, and provides quality plastic products to a diverse range of customers throughout the UK

VTR offers a range of supply base management, international quality assurance, and technical support services to those industries where quality is critical. Product verification services include...

IT Aerospace has many years experience in the Aerospace industry and supplies a total support package to military, civil, and space vehicle aviation manufacturing and maintenance facilities..

Gorton Engineering is a small family run business that provides a second to none specialised service to clients throughout the UK and Europe

Ali Khan offers aerospace mechanical and electrical products and manufacturing to clients throughout UK, middle east, south Asia. Established in 2007.

UK Planet Tools supplies expanding foam, silicone sealants to European and UK markets

HOW MANY MORE WOULD YOU LIKE TITTF? as I can find about 900 more top UK and world wide companies for you. all of which sell to us within the UK and are tops at what they do.... mind you.... you sum up the whole right wing attitude to things made within the UK.... MAYBE ITS HIGH TIME THE RIGHT WING LETS GIVE UP MOB WAS ASKED TO LEAVE THE UK.

TLTTF Said: A simple solution to the country's problems could be; buy british. Yet nobody does. Funny world innit?

I used to sell multi coloured condoms, with the Motto "Buy British and eff em all" but no one bought them.

Nice one bobby.
Red you miss the point totally. What I said was buy British, as you pointed out we have some great companies, unfortunately things come cheaper from Korea and China, hence were giving our futures away, as I type this on my samsung laptop, I feel no guilt and therein lies the problem.

tlttf wrote:Nice one bobby.
Red you miss the point totally. What I said was buy British, as you pointed out we have some great companies, unfortunately things come cheaper from Korea and China, hence were giving our futures away, as I type this on my samsung laptop, I feel no guilt and therein lies the problem.

Well yes we do have some great companies in the UK. but here lays the real issue. Well have spent the last 30 years backing to finance sector not our manufacturers. its not cheap loans that is need is backing and money going direct into new manufacturing production. why are we still pumping money into the banking system that has failed to then pass this money on to manufactures. I am only a woman and even I can work out that banks have been sitting on billions just in case something goes wrong. so in other words its Taxpayers money being tied up once more in the banking system while the banks shareholder have there investments kept safe for them. If I had my way I would tell this bank shareholders that if they wish to invest in banking and risk there money on world markets then they can start being responsible for there banks debt. as its high time they was made accountable of there directors actions. if these investors end up losing there homes so be it.

"Well have spent the last 30 years backing to finance sector not our manufacturers"

Foreign owners have seized the opportunity provided by Privatisation, to buy Britain's Railways, Utilities and manufacturing facilities, which include Fashion brands that enjoy a worldwide demand.

oftenwrong wrote:"Well have spent the last 30 years backing to finance sector not our manufacturers"

Foreign owners have seized the opportunity provided by Privatisation, to buy Britain's Railways, Utilities and manufacturing facilities, which include Fashion brands that enjoy a worldwide demand.

This is very true OW. what's more we have a 18 year Tory Government that was only to happy to export UK jobs. as I have said in the past the Labour Governments biggest mistake was not to back UK manufacturing like it should of in my view. but then I think this is a very fair criticism in my view. but this does not stop me from believing they also did many good things as well. like build new Schools and Hospitals to name just two things.

The very fact that we are indulging in Quantitative Easing not only informs us that austerity isn't working, but also that austerity does not even exist.

It's all an extravagant deception/exercise/excuse to drive the wages, lifestyles, and expectations of ordinary workers down in order to compete in a global economy with the likes of China, India, etc. The purpose is to keep a minority living in unadulterated luxury at the expense of the majority.

Of course it's about greed, and is therefore a flawed system which will see the rich and powerful destroying the very thing that feeds them - the rest of us. Thus their agenda will prove, eventually, to be self-destructive.

Safe Hands on the Tiller of State

(guardian.co.uk)

" There are three golden rules for having a successful economy , David"

" I know, George - it's a real bugger that we don't have a clue what they are..."

sickchip wrote:The very fact that we are indulging in Quantitative Easing not only informs us that austerity isn't working, but also that austerity does not even exist.

It's all an extravagant deception/exercise/excuse to drive the wages, lifestyles, and expectations of ordinary workers down in order to compete in a global economy with the likes of China, India, etc. The purpose is to keep a minority living in unadulterated luxury at the expense of the majority.

Of course it's about greed, and is therefore a flawed system which will see the rich and powerful destroying the very thing that feeds them - the rest of us. Thus their agenda will prove, eventually, to be self-destructive.

Total agree Chip. What's more if you saw the Guardian today. the front page has the headline Breadline Britain. 7 million adults just one bill away from disaster. what does that say for a country in the top 7 world economies to you?

The last time I saw so many proerties for sale and very few being sold was during the Witches watch. Unemployment and stagnated house prices are Tory manufactured with or without a so called "deficit situation".

As Brother sickchip points out above, austerity affects most those at or near the bottom of the economic scale, but the obvious drawback with the vaunted "growth" alternative is that it is the complete reverse - its principal tendency is to make the rich richer.

We had inspirational growth right up to 2008, didn't we? Is that really where Mervyn King wants to take us yet again?

As I see it.

'This is your Captain Camer-con speaking. We are just reaching the coast of Europe. Our engines are failing for lack of fuel and we are likely to ditch at any moment. Will the passengers in the First class cabin put on their parachutes and prepare to jump. The remainder of the passengers please stay seated and pray. I myself am needed on the ground to explain the 'accident'. Good luck'

"principal tendency is to make the rich richer."

That of course is the whole Tory objective, irrispective of the consideration for immediate growth proposals and measures.
If a party such as the Tory party realises that it will have no chance of re-election next time, especially as only scraped in by the skin of it's teeth at the last election, what a grand opportunity to implement everything that is unpopular with the majorty for the benefit of the rich.

They care not except for themselves and their own kind.

Danny Alexander has pulled his head out of the sand criticising those who don't pay their 'fair share' of taxes, after it emerged that comedian Jimmy Carr who is pictured in the Daily Mail today filling up his BENTLEY, pays as little as 1 per cent income tax due to his offshore tax avoidence. Not in the least surprisingly, many of his fellow comedians leapt to his defence and tried to make light of the scandal.

I wonder why they would leap to his defence? ha ha!!!. Many are obviously at it, including that jumped up Cockney Tory loving bastard Michael Caine.

It is time something was done about this disgusting situation. Not likely to happen with this Tory dominated shower as most of the front bench are at it too I suspect.

Address the situation and the said "deficit" would be reduced in the wink of an eye.

The key financial commentary today comes from Credit-rating Agency Moody's which has downgraded three British Banks for being over-exposed to the Eurozone.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9346736/Moodys-poised-to-downgrade-UK-banks.html

Barclays, HSBC and Royal Bank of Scotland are facing a cut in their ratings by as much as two notches,

SO! Does this mean anything for the savers in those banks??

Is it grab yer cash an' run like the Northern Rock, or, is it sit tight and wait for the toboggan to hurtle down the Cresta Run?

A run on the Bank, as happened in 2008 with Northern Rock, becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If everybody wihdraws their savings, it's bankrupt.

Nobody knows what MIGHT have happened if Messrs Brown and Darling had taken the decision to look the other way and let the Banks take the consequences of their own greed. It would not have been a pretty sight, and we could instead have found ourselves now bartering with each other for goods.

Too true OW. Pity the Yanks allowed Lehman's to go bust. A lesson they should have learned from Brown and Darling and as a concequence of that failing, they and the rest of the world suffers.

All the problems we now have with banks and investments is down IMO to the collapse of Lehman Bro's. What is known as the "fear factor" in the banking sector.

I'm going to have to take my overdraft elsewhere

It'll cost you! The Bankers always have the last laugh. What have you heard lately about those Government plans to control Casino Banking????????

Funny how quiet it seems to have gone. Business as usual until further notice.

Mel wrote: including that jumped up Cockney Tory loving bastard Michael Caine.

There's something else. I feel ashamed. Was that how it was for you? The first time?

Are we to take that as boasting, or complaining?
Was it Snow White that sang, "Some day my Prince will come"?

Public sector net borrowing, excluding financial interventions, such as bank bailouts, was £17.9 billion in May, up from £15.2 billion the previous year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK net borrowing up to June 2012 after bank bailouts is now £354 Billion with one City of London forecasting Net Government UP on Borrowing for 2012 is now up from £158 Billion to £175 Billion. Vicky Redwood, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said borrowing is on course to overshoot "significantly" the official full-year forecast of £120 billion.
She said:
The main problem remains a sharp slowdown in tax receipts. And with the economy probably still in recession, receipts are likely to remain weak.
The combination of worsening public finances and renewed recession is likely to intensify calls for the Government to change tack on its austerity programme.

I thought you would all be interested in a economic up-date to see how well this Government is running your economy on our behalf. what you may not is that Net Government Borrowing after bank bail outs is overshooting while investments are falling in line with Tax receipts. this is the net result of trying to cut your way out of debt while still not having a national Growth policy for the UK. Its my companies view that the bank of England will do around £50 billion more QE in July 2012. this is on top of the £80 billion that Gideon and the Bank of England have set-aside for small business loans. QE will be get close to the £375 billion mark by the end of 2012. we still have cheap Government borrowing due to government bonds However, instead of using this money to inject into the General economy its still only being used for Banks.

Total UK Receipts £592 billion and Total UK expenditure £638 billion. Deficit of £46 billion -(Budget 2012)
Gross Domestic Product -0.3% (Q4 2011)
Growth Forecast downgraded for the Sixth time by (OBR in November 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 2nd Time by Bank of England 1.4% August 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 3rd Time to 1.7% (Budget 2011)
Growth forecast Downgraded for 3rd Time to by Ernst & Young from1.7% to 0.9% Jan 2012
Growth forecast Downgraded for 2nd Time to by CBI to 1.3% July 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 4th Time to by CBI to 1.2% Sept 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 4th Time to by CBI to 0.9% Feb 2012
Growth forecast Downgraded for 3rd Time to by I.M.F to 1.3% July 2011
Growth forecast Downgraded for 4th Time to by I.M.F to 0.6% Jan 2012
Growth forecast in the Tory budget down for a 3rd time to 1.7% (Budget 2011
Growth forecast in the Tory budget down for a 4th time (Budget 2012
Growth forecast in the City as low as 1.2% 2011
Disposable income has seen its Sharpest fall in 30 years or 1980s (ONS)
Annual Earnings Growth remains at 1.9% in February 2012
GDP Growth for forecast set by bank of England at 2.0% 2010
GDP The last cycle of robust growth in potential output of 2.9% was 1997 to 2006 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
GDP when the Tory-Liberal coalition come to power ,the UK was growing at an annual rate of 4% (OBR)
GDP April's 2011 figures have just clawed back last years 0.5% contraction in 2010 (OBR)
GDP is 1.1% lower than the OBR thought it would be in Sept 2010 (OBR)
GDP Growth is now lower than 1930s, 1970s, 1980s 1990s (OBR)
GDP UK is 3.6% blow its pre-financial crisis 2008 (H.M.Trasury)
GDP City Growth forecast for 2012 are 0.3% to 0.4% (FT Sept 2011)
GDP Contracted by 0.5% in the Q4 in 2010 (OBR)
GDP is 0.8% lower than in November 2010 (OBR)
GDP IS 0.2% lower than MARCH 2011 (OBR)
GDP Growth December 2011 Contracted by 0.2% Q4 (OBR)
GDP Growth Contracted by 0.5% Q4 2010 (OBR)
GDP Growth July 2011 was just Q2 0.2% (OBR)
GDP Growth starts Jan Q1 2012 at just 0.2% (OBR)
GDP Growth April 2011 was Q1 0.5% (OBR)
GDP Growth April 2012 was Q1 0.3% (BCC and ORB)
GDP Growth April 2012 is -0.2% (BBC & ONS) Setting a new 100 year Record in low growth
Public Sector Net Debt excluding financial interventions £995.0 billion (February 2012)
Public Sector Net Debt excluding financial interventions £877.3 billion at the end of February 2011
Public Sector Net Borrowing March 2011 £16 Billion (OBR)
Public Sector Net Borrowing March 2012 £ 18.02 Billion (OBR)
Public Sector Net Borrowing in May 2011 £15.9 Billion (OBR)
Public Sector Net Borrowing in May 2012 17.9 Billion (OBR)
National Debt hits £1.03 Trillion for the first Time Jan 2012 (OBR)
National Debt actual debt after repurchase by Bank of England is £650 Billion (Guardian on B of E figures)
National Debt Coalition & Bank of England QE for 2011 was £75 billion (OBR/Bank of England)
National Debt Coalition & Bank of England QE for 2012 was £50 billion (OBR/Bank of England)
National Debt Coalition & Bank of England QE for july 2012 up by £50 billion (OBR/Bank of England)
National Debt total Quantitative Easing is £325 Billion in total by February 2012 (OBR/Bank of England)
National Debt total Quantitative Easing is £375 Billion in total by July 2012 (OBR/Bank of England)
National Debt private + public sector debt totals some 500% 2011 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
National Debt Tory Party forecast National debt will fall by just £54 Billion by 2015 (Tory party website)
UK Economic Decline is two and half times that of the entire Euro zone (ONS & H.M.Trasury) 2011
UK Economic Decline is 77% of the EU’s decline for 2011 (H.M.Trasury)
UK Economy shrank by 5.0% in 2009 the biggest calendar year fall since 1921 ( NIE)
UK Economy shrank by 6.3% in 2011 the biggest calendar year fall on record by October 2011 ( NIE)
UK Pound exchange rate has fallen by 21.0% against the Dollar 2011 (H.M.Trasury)
UK lose market share accelerated from 2008 to 2010. (Oxford Economic )
Government Borrowing Tory-Liberal coalition come to power stated an additional £111 Billion 2009 (OBR)
Government Borrowing Net borrowing was just £7.3 Billion in 2010 (H.M.Trasury)
Government Borrowing forecast up by £54 Billion (Budget 2011)
Government Borrowing overshot in Q4 by £127 Billion (OBR)
Government Borrowing overshot in Jan 2012 by £157 Billion (ONS)
Government Borrowing Income Vs Expenditure deficit for 2011/2012 is £46 billions (OBR/ Budget 2012)
Government Borrowing topped the £10 billion by just Feb 2011 (OBR)
Government Borrowing to be £10 billion higher every year from 2012 (OBR)
Government Borrowing in Jan 2012 was £13.7 billion for December 2011 overshooting (OBR)
Private Pension deficit up from £24.5 Billion to £31.7 Billion by Sept 2011 (ONS)
Private Pension Deficit £158 billion December 2011 (ONS)
Private Pension deficit £255.2 form £222 billion in Jan 2012 (N.M.A & ONS)
Pensioners 2.66 million claimants of Pension Credit (3.25 million including partners) 2012 (DWP)
UK 10 Year bonds, the Historical high of 12.84% set in April 1990 (H.M.Trasury)
UK 10 year Bonds, Record low of 1.97% set in Jan 2012 (H.M.Trasury)
UK 10 Year Bonds, Yields decline by 1.47% from 1989 to 2012 (H.M.Trasury)
UK 10 Year Bonds, averaged 6.28% (H.M.Trasury)
Unemployment up to record 17 year high (ONS)
Unemployment record was set in 1981 at 2.6 million or 9.8% of the Workforce
Unemployment record was set in 1981 was past at 2.67 million or 8.4% of the Workforce January 2012 (ONS)
Unemployment for woman rose for the 10th month in a row March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment increased by 20,000 the highest three month figure since Jan 1997 (ONS)
Unemployment increased by 16,000 for the last tree months of 2011. January 2012 (ONS)
Unemployment is now 7.7% of economically active population March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment is now 8.4%% of economically active population 2012 (ONS)
Unemployment rate 8.3% of economically active population (December 2011-February 2012)
Unemployment forecast in the budget set to rise to 8.1% in 2012 (Budget 2011)
Unemployment is was2.6 million in March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment is now 2.6 million in December 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment is up to 2.67 million in January 2012 (ONS)
Unemployment Fell by 35,000 from Dec 2011 to Feb 2012. With 2.5 million now out of work (ONS)
Unemployment Claimants increased by 12,400 in March 2011 to April 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment Claimants increased 11 month in a row by 6,900 to a total of 1.6 million January 2012 (ONS)
Unemployment Woman Claimants increased by 9,300 to 474,400 in March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployed women increased by 41,000 in Q4 2011 to reach 1.06 million, a figure not reached since 1988
Unemployment Men Claimants increased by 3,100 to 994,200 in March 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment 16-24 hit 1.043 million in Q3, the highest since records began in 1992. 2011 (ONS)
Unemployment 16-24 hit 1.35 million in Q1 Up 22,000 January 2012 (ONS)
Unemployment benefit payments rose by 1,200 to 1.6 million by December 2012 (ONS)
Unemployment benefits spending in UK £147.77 Billion up by 7% on 2008/09 (OBR/Budget 2012)
Unemployment benefit payments up to 1980s levels (ONS)
Unemployment Workless households 3.88 million (April-June 2011) (ONS)
Unemployment with Income Support lone parents (ISLP) early estimate was 580,000. 2012 (DWP)
Unemployment with a Children in workless households 1.8 million (April-June 2011) (ONS) & (DWP)
Housing Benefit was 4.98 million, with 5.90 million claiming Council Tax Benefit. 2012 (DWP)
Housing Benefit award is £86.86 per week, and for Council Tax Benefit recipients. 2012 (DWP)
Housing Benefit overall average award was £15.69 per week. 2012 (DWP)
Housing Benefit recipients were single, with almost two-thirds of these being female. Of the 1.71 million recipients with
Housing Benefit with least one child dependent, 1.16 million of these were single. 2012 (DWP)
Housing Benefit recipients were 3.69 million aged under 65, representing almost three quarters of all Housing Benefit
Business investment growth slashed to just 0.7% from 7.7% predicted in November 2011 (OBR)
Business failures in 2010 was 23,000 (ONS)
Business failures in 2011 was 20,900 or 6.5% (ONS)
Bankers Bonus for £14 billion for 2011 (FT & Guardian & BBC)
Manufacturing Exports forecast in Tory Budget is set at £11 Trillion by 2020 (OBR Budget)
Manufacturing was flat Feb 2011 (ONS)
Manufacturing production out put 1.5% decline in April 2011 (ONS)
Manufacturing touted as the engine of the economy fall by 0.3% in July 2011 (ONS)
Manufacturing jobless in Q4 2011 to Jan 2012 was up to 395,000
Manufacturing production Cable & Wireless Communication slumped nearly 17% in 2011 (FT)
Manufacturing/Business investment growth of just 0.7% in March 2012 (OBR / Budget )
Trade in goods and services -£2.5bn in January 2012
Trade in goods and services -£3.4bn (February 2012) compared with -£2.5bn in January 2012
BDOs output index dropped from Decembers 91.4% to February 2012 to 91.2%
Exports fell in Jan 2011 (HMCR)
Exports Vs Imports increased by 14.7% in October 2011 (HMCR)
Factory gate prices rose 0.9% between February & March 2011 (ONS)
Factory gate prices rose at an annual rate of 5.3% in May 2011 (ONS)
Factory gate prices in December 2011 to 4.8% (ONS)
Factory gate prices fell in January 2012 to 4.1% (ONS)
Factory gate Producers input price inflation in January 2012 is 7% (ONS)
Mortgage & Credit card debt will soar to £2,126 billion by 2015 (ONS)
Tax Credits /Housing benefit cut and only reaped £5.8 billion of the expected £11Billion (ORB Budget 2012)
Mortgage debt now accounts is around £21,000 per person April 2011 (ONS)
Home repossessions peak set in 1991 at 19,000 homes (council of mortgage lenders)
Home repossession forecast to rise to 45,000 in 2012 (council of mortgage lenders )
Construction industry suffered a 0.5% fall in output from November to January 2012 (ONS)
North sea Oil Tax up by £2 Billion for 2011, with HMCR taking 88% in Tax (ONS)
The Worst squeeze on living standards for 90 years
Consumer spending accounts for 65% of the UK economy April 2011 (OMS)
Consumer spending shows the biggest fell in total sales since the survey began in 1995 (KPMG)
Consumer spending has fallen by 1.7% for four consecutive Q in 2011. (ONS)
Consumer spending has rose by 1.9% Q1 January 2012 (ONS)
Producer Price Index: Output Price 3.6% (March 2012) index stands at 177.6, a rise of 5.8% in the year to March 2
Personal Spending shows it first drop in personal spending power since the Thatcher slump in 1980s (KMPG)
Petrol down by 1p with VAT up by 2% in the Budget 2011
Petrol prices average increased by 52% up to March 2010
Food Prices rose 7.4% in the biggest rise since 2009 (ONS)
Food Prices rising at 4.9% rising faster than any other OECD in Jan 2012 member (UBS & OECD)
CPI Inflation increase to 3.3% December 2010 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
CPI annual inflation stands at 3.5 per cent in March, up from 3.4 per cent in February
CPI has put the cost of living double its target from 4% in Jan 2011 to 4.4% in April 2011 (OBR & Oxford Economic)
CPI September 2011 rises by 5.2% (ONS)
CPI October 2011 fall by just 0.2% to 5.0% (ONS)
CPI January 2012 fell to 4.8% from 5.0% (Bank of England)
RPI has gone from 5.1% to 5.5% the highest since 1991 (ONS)
RPI Jan 2011 leapt to CPI 4% from 3.7% with Market Oracle putting real inflation at 6.6% 2012
RPI annual inflation stands at 3.6 per cent in March, down from 3.7 per cent in February 2012
Prices, Inflation and Productivity
Consumer Prices Index 3.5% (March 2012)
CPI annual inflation stands at 3.5 per cent in March, up from 3.4 per cent in February (Ad-hoc), England. Last updated: 17 April 2012


Sorry folks I did point out that QE would go up in July by £50 billion more to £375 billion more. its because Gideon has our economy running so well that he has managed to replace GDP Growth with QE Growth in Borrowing. I am sure that most UK people will be just over the moon that we have backed our banks with £50 billion more. Mind you it does help us all too pay of any Libor debt and the odd mis-selling of the odd other thing coming our way. Still never mind we have Gideon working for us all. As we are all in this together you know Gideon and Dave said. its just that some of us are more in it, than others that is all. but then... where would we all be if we did not have Big Bob Diamond and the investment bankers gang backing us all up? But thank God Gideon has given the banks this extra £50 billion. as the investment bankers will need there 2012 bank bonus come the end of the year.

May the Right wingers on here can explain how the national debt will be cut with a policy of public sector borrowing after bank bail outs is rising out of control while UK Growth is running at 0.2%?

Also can they please explain to me why they are still injecting money into the banking sector and not direct into the General economy with bonds sales at a record low?

Also if they could clear up why there is a sharp slowdown in tax receipts when they are borrowing so much and why banks are now sitting on some £350 Billion bank bail out cash.

while also explaining how 2.6 million unemployed with tax falling will help our economy?

These are just a few questions which I am 100% sure that Blue and Tittf can explain with ease for us all. as I am sure its all down to the EU in there minds. even if it is our governments public sector net borrowing we are talking about after the bank bail out money.

How is plan A working in there eyes? maybe they can talk this all way as the last government? but was this government going to cut the national debt by 2015?

Still I am sure this is all just a misunderstanding somewhere and this is all down to the left wing media and us taking over the OBR. as the right always talk this away as a left wing plot?

Maybe they would also wish to explain how Ed Balls forecasts are once more shown to be quite right. While Gideon's forecasts are better than Ed Balls. who the Tories laugh at so much? are they still laughing so much? if so please share the economic joke with us on the left.

oftenwrong wrote:It'll cost you! The Bankers always have the last laugh. What have you heard lately about those Government plans to control Casino Banking????????

Funny how quiet it seems to have gone. Business as usual until further notice.

The government controlling Casino banking? Well that will be something new. as so far this crap government has shown it cannot control anything of note.

Current government borrowing is rising because the tax-take is falling. Who could have anticipated that in a recession?

A possible explanation is the reduction of staff at HMRC.

In personal terms, it's often called shooting yourself in the foot.

But they've taken control of a London Health Trust that is said to be losing £1million a week. Surely that can only result in a successful outcome for the Patients?

oftenwrong wrote:Current government borrowing is rising because the tax-take is falling. Who could have anticipated that in a recession?

A possible explanation is the reduction of staff at HMRC.

In personal terms, it's often called shooting yourself in the foot.

Well said OW. Its hard to believe that any government worth its salt would be this stupid. but it goes to show how wrong Even I am. as I never thought I would live to see a government not understand that mass cuts would only lead to more borrowing and a fall in the Tax take. I can also never quite get my head around the reduction in HMRC staffing either. but then this is a government that is talking in a reduction in some 700,000 public sector workers.

so your spot on, in personal terms its call shooting yourself in both feet at once. To call them idiots seems to understate things some how in my book.

Was the borrowing done at the Bank of England rates, or were they set by Barclays, just wondering as if set by the Bof E then the exchequer is probably making money when compared to the rate illegally set by the commercial banks. I'm amazed an economist somewhere couldn't spot this corrupt practice happening, I mean fraud should be easy to spot shouldn't it?

You're not very likely to spot things which you weren't looking for anyway.

With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight we now know that neither the FSA nor the Bank of England were "policing" the banks for wrongful trading in the years leading up to 2008. Effectively, both bodies were being paid for something they weren't doing. Now it emerges that the Banks were colluding in setting their own Borrowing Rates, between themselves, conveniently by-passing reporting requirements.

I suspect that this was uncovered by American investigators who passed on the information to British authorities with responsibility for "controlling" Banking activities.

Why isn't someone in Jail?

tlttf wrote:Was the borrowing done at the Bank of England rates, or were they set by Barclays, just wondering as if set by the Bof E then the exchequer is probably making money when compared to the rate illegally set by the commercial banks. I'm amazed an economist somewhere couldn't spot this tlttf happening, I mean fraud should be easy to spot shouldn't it?

That is an interesting point about people not spotting it. yes There was signs that some of the rates where rather odd at times. but like all things with banking you just cannot spend every working day checking them. but rumour or gossip are one thing but proof is a whole new game. in fact there are 100s of rumours going about the City every signal day in truth. its amazing that the Bank of England did not spot this act more than anyone else. So how was it set?



LIBOR stands for the London interbank offered rate and is the rate of interest that banks charge to lend money to each other. The LIBOR rate is set daily by the British Bankers' Association (BBA) who work with a small group of large banks to set the LIBOR rate. The wholesale markets allow banks who need money to be more fluid in the marketplace to borrow from those with surplus amounts. The banks with surplus amounts of money are keen to lend so that they can generate interest on the loans which it would not otherwise receive.

Currently the focus is on the 3 month LIBOR rate which would normally run at 0.15% and 0.25% in advance of where the markets believe the Bank of England Base Rate (BBR) will be in 3 months time. Recently however, this figure has been significantly higher. This is because the banks are unwilling to lend to each other in such a volatile market but at the same time the demand for money is high, which pushes the LIBOR rate up as a result.

There is more than one LIBOR rate. In fact, the BBA produces 150 rates every day: for ten different currencies and, within each of these currencies, for 15 maturities.

Each LIBOR rate is defined in terms of currency and maturity, for example “three month sterling LIBOR”.

It is very important to ascertain which LIBOR rate your mortgage is set against. This will be clearly defined in your mortgage contract. If you are unable to locate the exact rate then you should speak to your lender. On top of the LIBOR rate, each mortgage lender charges a fixed premium based on your individual circumstances at the time your lender offered your mortgage. This premium will vary between different borrowers but will be a fixed amount above the relevant LIBOR rate.

FT publish LIBOR on their website, However,The Macro Financial Analysis Division of the Bank of England estimates yield curves for the UK on a daily basis. They are of two kinds. One set is based on yields on UK government bonds (gilts) and includes nominal and real yield curves and the inflation term structure for the United Kingdom. The other set is based on sterling interbank rates (LIBOR) and on yields on instruments linked to LIBOR, short sterling futures, forward rate agreements and LIBOR-based interest rate swaps. These commercial bank liability curves are nominal only. So tlttf do you believe you could spot fraud without checking this everyday? the truth is the Macro Financial Analysis Division of the Bank of England who check this on a daily basis should of picked this up.

oftenwrong wrote:You're not very likely to spot things which you weren't looking for anyway.

With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight we now know that neither the FSA nor the Bank of England were "policing" the banks for wrongful trading in the years leading up to 2008. Effectively, both bodies were being paid for something they weren't doing. Now it emerges that the Banks were colluding in setting their own Borrowing Rates, between themselves, conveniently by-passing reporting requirements.

I suspect that this was uncovered by American investigators who passed on the information to British authorities with responsibility for "controlling" Banking activities.

Why isn't someone in Jail?

spot on OW.

European leaders worked through last night to put together a deal to bail out Spain's troubled banks.
Following 13 hours of talks that ended at 5am. They agreed to allow Spanish financial institutions direct access to EU bailout funds without adding to its government’s debts.
120billion euros will be taken from EU Stability Mechanism (ESM) . The austerity loving Angela Merkel was forced to give way on this issue.

At that point the powerless Cameron left the meeting at 1am probably because he now stands more or less alone on the thoughts that austerity works.
The EU leaders agreed to create a single supervisory body for eurozone banks.
This leaves the governments so called bank regulatory measures in isolotion
from the EU banking supervisory body. which could be damaging to the UK's banking sector.
If Cameron had done his duty and stayed on at the meeting he may have been able to have had the UK included withing this supervisory body. I expect he was tired and probably pissed up on wine as usual and buggered off to his Brussels hotel to sleep it off.

Mel wrote:
European leaders worked through last night to put together a deal to bail out Spain's troubled banks.
Following 13 hours of talks that ended at 5am. They agreed to allow Spanish financial institutions direct access to EU bailout funds without adding to its government’s debts.
120billion euros will be taken from EU Stability Mechanism (ESM) . The austerity loving Angela Merkel was forced to give way on this issue.

At that point the powerless Cameron left the meeting at 1am probably because he now stands more or less alone on the thoughts that austerity works.
The EU leaders agreed to create a single supervisory body for eurozone banks.
This leaves the governments so called bank regulatory measures in isolotion
from the EU banking supervisory body. which could be damaging to the UK's banking sector.
If Cameron had done his duty and stayed on at the meeting he may have been able to have had the UK included withing this supervisory body. I expect he was tired and probably pissed up on wine as usual and buggered off to his Brussels hotel to sleep it off.

Hiya Mel
What a very good post and well put too my friend. You know I cannot fully understand Cameron's actions on about 80% of what he does. as all 80% of his actions are economic madness in my view. but to add to this above. we today have a PM who believes is far more important to make a speech about EU and some in or out vote in 2016? than a deceitful manipulation or even possible fraudulent manipulation the Libor rate within our own banking system. what's is wrong with the man? he has to just be some sort of political moron? as bar from a small group of UKIP nutters who cares about a dam vote over EU in 2016?