Will Boris Johnson lead the Tories into the next general election?

Bunnyrunner wrote:Be afraid...Be very afraid.

For years, since his days as a Bullingdon 'yahoo', right up to his second term as London Mayor, BoJo has played the clown. Every time he steps into the light he slips on a banana skin and with a shake of his blond mop-top and a muttered reply, walks away with laughter ringing in his ears. The media treat him as a joke, the public treat him as a joke and his own party treat him as a joke.

However...

He has carved out some very high power friends in the City, won a second term as Mayor of our Capital City and amassed a personal fortune into the bargain. Hardly the actions of a fool. Far from it.
This is a man who has climbed the greasy pole of political power almost unseen and undetected. He has claimed he has no wish to lead the Tory Party but has emerged as almost the only natural successor to Tweedlecam. Senior Tories know the leadership is now a poisoned chalice and feel safe in letting Boris in the door. That is a big mistake. :albino:

Well a interesting post. However, I have always found picking the new leader of the Tory party a quite turgid exercise. as in most cases the Tory party favourite often ends up the loser. In fact I Think I would say its bleakly unfathomable as to how they pick there leaders. as there party is the embodiment of everything except common sense when it comes to internal party politics. I have always thought of Bo-Jo as having something of the emperor's new clothe's about him. as his time within the house of commons was quite colourless a very mediocre in performance.

However, I would say he will look superficially attractive to some Tory party backwoods men right now but they will fear how the media will view him in the heat of battle in a general election. as what will worry the Tory party is that he has been very inconsistent to melodramatic for the Tory party membership. I just believe he is too greater risk for the Tory party as a whole. Its my view they will overlook him, too me Bo Jo could well turn out a the king maker.

It would be a puzzle as to why the Tories consistently overlooked Kenneth Clarke as a leader, until one realises that he was just not nasty enough for them.

Tories love a loud-mouthed right-wing supposed 'bruiser', and if only they could have plucked up the courage in days gone by, the likes of Norman Tebbit would have filled the role nicely for them, just as Eric Pickles would now , were it not for the fact that he is a fat obnoxious oaf, too embarrassing for even the goosestepping Conservative brigades.

As it is, I suspect that Cameron will hold on at least until 2015...

Stox 16 wrote: .... I have always found picking the new leader of the Tory party a quite turgid exercise.... Its my view they will overlook him, to me Bo Jo could well turn out a the king maker.

If Boris is sensible (which he presumably is - the Buffoon act is camouflage) he will acknowledge that he is entrenched as Mayor of London, where he exerts considerable power unhampered by tedious opposition people like Miliband and Balls. Where's the logic for Boris in assuming control of "The most unpopular government ever" (Letwin) when he is master of all he surveys as it is?

Even if the Tories are terminally disatisfied with their Leader they can't get rid of him without getting rid of Gideon Osborne as well. They're inseparable politically, philosophically and by Public perception. Choosing TWO successors would not be straightforward, so we probably are stuck with the useless pair until 2015, as the Mayor of Pease Pottage sugests above.

Phil Hornby wrote:It would be a puzzle as to why the Tories consistently overlooked Kenneth Clarke as a leader, until one realises that he was just not nasty enough for them.

Tories love a loud-mouthed right-wing supposed 'bruiser', and if only they could have plucked up the courage in days gone by, the likes of Norman Tebbit would have filled the role nicely for them, just as Eric Pickles would now , were it not for the fact that he is a fat obnoxious oaf, too embarrassing for even the goosestepping Conservative brigades.

As it is, I suspect that Cameron will hold on at least until 2015...

This is one prediction that you have got wrong PH, just think of the damage he will do to this country in the next three years, I do not know if you can remember the job Tony Blair had after 18 years of Tory rule the NHS & Education where in a dire state, I do not know what you think of Tony Blair but you must admit he did do good things for all not like the Tories who only look after the chosen few.

Phil Hornby wrote:It would be a puzzle as to why the Tories consistently overlooked Kenneth Clarke as a leader, until one realises that he was just not nasty enough for them.

Tories love a loud-mouthed right-wing supposed 'bruiser', and if only they could have plucked up the courage in days gone by, the likes of Norman Tebbit would have filled the role nicely for them, just as Eric Pickles would now , were it not for the fact that he is a fat obnoxious oaf, too embarrassing for even the goosestepping Conservative brigades.

As it is, I suspect that Cameron will hold on at least until 2015...

Hi Phil
I think you are quite right in saying that the extreme right wing goosestepping Conservative brigades would love to pick a leader like Norman Tebbit, but when it comes down to voting him in office they all come down with a bum rush and back out. As deep down its my own very they are quite gutless as a party.

I like most of us have thought about this question for quite some time now. I did start to think they would move against Cameron but as OW has pointed out that would have to remove Gideon as well. But for how ever much the extreme right wing goosestepping Conservative brigades would like to do this its my view, however, they just do not quite have the guts to do it. (Hope I am wrong about this) but feel I am not, at this time.

I would think that most of the Tory party MPs already believes deep down that they could well lose in 2015. Not that this is quite in the bag yet in my view. but lets say it is. Then the Tory party would have to picking a leader for Opposition and not Government. its my guess that Bo-JO and some others will not step in while this is still on the cards. So too my mind thinking the so called leading lights will stay well any from this, as they will not wish to do the five years as leader of the Opposition.

So to my way of thinking the new leader will be picked from the Tory party 2nd eleven,

"So to my way of thinking the new leader will be picked from the Tory party 2nd eleven"

Jeremy *unt for Prime Minister!!!

oftenwrong wrote:"So to my way of thinking the new leader will be picked from the Tory party 2nd eleven"

Jeremy *unt for Prime Minister!!!

Well OW can you see any high flyer wishing to spend five long years in opposition? No Jeremy unt, but that would suit me if they did pick him. I am not sure who they would pick myself.

During the New Labour administration, there were three or four different "High Fliers" allowed to try and subsequently fail as Conservative Leader. That seems to be an established pattern likely for any Party-in-opposition. But opposition is the most likely Tory role as things stand.

Unless the fickle British Voter decrees otherwise.

oftenwrong wrote:During the New Labour administration, there were three or four different "High Fliers" allowed to try and subsequently fail as Conservative Leader. That seems to be an established pattern likely for any Party-in-opposition. But opposition is the most likely Tory role as things stand.

Unless the fickle British Voter decrees otherwise.

Well I can agree with the Tories will end up most likely in Opposition. But lets put it this way then. if I was a high flier I would not risk standing and winning and ending up going into five years opposition with all the bad media and my record on display when there is no rush. Picking the right time to stand for leadership is always a big Gamble. But the Labour party leadership races are quite different in nature with less of a chance of a political assassination while in office due to the rules of the party. in fact if I can remember it right Tony Blair was the first leader to stand down while in office? most leave after a election defeat. this is not the same within the Tory party. as political assassination come with the job.

So there are very few shot at becoming Labour leader so you have to stand.

The simple answer to the title question is, no, Boris Johnson will NOT lead the Tories into the next election.

He may lead it if they are in opposition but of course he'd need to find a constituency first and he's currently mayor and without one.

Of course the problem for any leader of the Tories is that they will be taking over a party that is essentially split into three main factions.

At least the Labour party only has two to worry about!

in fact if I can remember it right Tony Blair was the first Labour leader to stand down while in office?

Harold Wilson in 1976.

he'd need to find a constituency first

How about Corby, now that Louise Mensch has resigned as an MP?

Corby, Ivan?

I heard that Louise Mensch has agreed a straight swop with Sarah Palin.

Boris??? Well he may well appeal to many of the electorate rather than to his own party members in the long run. IMO he is seen by many as somewhat detached from the evil bunch, posing as an untidy joker.

People of today prefer not to wear ties and suits, with women seeming to love bald headed men with no dress sense, a care free anything goes sort of attitude. Boris comes over as a scruffy untidy person which makes him a little different to most MP's. This gives a clever impression that he is not a false person trying to impress like the rest of them and I think many people fall for that masquerade. He does not come over as stern faced or nasty in any way, unlike Cameron and Gideon.

For me he is the perfect wolf in sheeps clothing and let us hope that his party members do not see what I see in his make up.

I agree that unfortunately it looks like the tyrants will go the full 5yr term with raving Dave at the helm. God help us all "except the wealthy" if the people and the unions fail to wake up to crush these tyrants in power, before it's too late.

As we get nearer to a general election, in my view around 18 months from now. The knives will be out to get rid of both Cameron and Clegg, because far to many Tory councillor's lost their seats at that bi-election a few months ago, and so Tory MP's are going to be shxtting their pants nearer the time.

I am waiting for Nadine Dorries to start a blacklash, and we could well see left of centre Conservative, Ken Clarke take over from Cameron.

Ken Clarke is an old school left of centre Conservative, he is not a right wing Tory.

Boris Johnson.......=........Boris Yeltsin ............Only without the need for booze!!!!!!

Ivanhoe. A by-election is a one-off election to replace an MP or councillor who has resigned or died. Lots of Tory councillors lost their seats in elections in May, which were held in most parts of the country.

There isn’t a snowflake’s chance in hell of Ken Clarke leading the Tory Party. He’s over 70, the Tories rejected him at least twice, he’s pro-EU (and even wanted us to join the euro) and he could never satisfy the desires of the rabid right.

I’ve heard one rumour that Boris Johnson wants to fight the Corby by-election, caused by the resignation from Parliament of that irritating and useless waste of space known as Louise Mensch. How cynical and opportunistic that would be for the specimen who has just committed himself to London for another four years! I don’t know how anyone is taken in by him, but at least Marcus Brigstocke seems to have the measure of him: “On the occasions when Boris's buffoon mask slips, you catch a glimpse of a truly ruthless, boorish, blinkered, over-privileged thug.”

Ivan wrote:Ivanhoe. A by-election is a one-off election to replace an MP or councillor who has resigned or died. Lots of Tory councillors lost their seats in elections in May, which were held in most parts of the country.

There isn’t a snowflake’s chance in hell of Ken Clarke leading the Tory Party. He’s over 70, the Tories rejected him at least twice, he’s pro-EU (and even wanted us to join the euro) and he could never satisfy the desires of the rabid right.

I’ve heard one rumour that Boris Johnson wants to fight the Corby by-election, caused by the resignation from Parliament of that irritating and useless waste of space known as Louise Mensch. How cynical and opportunistic that would be for the specimen who has just committed himself to London for another four years! I don’t know how anyone is taken in by him, but at least Marcus Brigstocke seems to have the measure of him: “On the occasions when Boris's buffoon mask slips, you catch a glimpse of a truly ruthless, boorish, blinkered, over-privileged thug.”

Ivan, I know precisely what a bi-election is thank you. My point is that around 18 months before the general election, Tory back benchers are going to be worried about their seats. And my point about Ken Clark is true. He is a left of centre Conservative.

I know precisely what a bi-election is thank you

Ivanhoe. Judging from the following quote, maybe I can be forgiven for reaching the conclusion that you don't know that a by-election is a one-off vote in one particular place:-

far to many Tory councillor's lost their seats at that bi-election a few months ago

Ivan wrote:

I know precisely what a bi-election is thank you

Ivanhoe. Judging from the following quote, maybe I can be forgiven for reaching the conclusion that you don't know that a by-election is a one-off vote in one particular place:-

far to many Tory councillor's lost their seats at that bi-election a few months ago

I see nothing wrong in that piece Ivan. Kindly explain ?

When ignorance is bliss, 'tis folly to be wise.

[quote="Ivan"]

in fact if I can remember it right Tony Blair was the first Labour leader to stand down while in office?

Harold Wilson in 1976.

Thanks Ivan I forgot about 1976. Not like me to forget my Labour party History ha ha ha

thanks anyway

Ivan wrote:

I know precisely what a bi-election is thank you

Ivanhoe. Judging from the following quote, maybe I can be forgiven for reaching the conclusion that you don't know that a by-election is a one-off vote in one particular place:-

far to many Tory councillor's lost their seats at that bi-election a few months ago

While bye-elections are a one off election I can tell you they are very important to the national parties. Not the majority or who wins, as that is for the media ans party supporters. But I worked full-time for the Labour party and can tell you that bye-elections help all the main parties try out new sorts of campaigning and new computer systems that the national parties will use if they work well in the next GE.

I worked in the Fulham bye-election in the 1980s and we used brand new computer systems for the very first time. it was so successful we have used it on many election but at the start it was a real fight to make it work. Also all three main parties send full time staff to work overseas in elections to see if there are campaigning tools that they us could be used here in the UK.

but for Joe public and the media its only about the size of majority or swing to there party that matters. I wish that was totally true as I would spend anything up to six weeks away from home come a bye election. then have a month of working out what went right and what did not. So while bye election seem to just be boring sport to most people they are far from it for the three main parties. as in some cases the next general election will be won or lost on how there campaigning tools work in the test beds of bye-elections.

if you do not believe me ask the Tory party about the 1997 general election? as many of the systems put in place and tested in bye elections helped the Labour party pick up some extra 20 seats from them. as right up to 18.00 hrs on that election day we could move people out of one seat and into an other. it killed them stone dead.

From the insular voter's point of view, a bye-election is the ideal time to show dissent. Unfortunately that attitude continued to have effect during the last General Election, with disastrous results.

Tactical voting is for the textbooks, not the Polling Station.

I don't see it myself.

oftenwrong wrote:From the insular voter's point of view, a bye-election is the ideal time to show dissent. Unfortunately that attitude continued to have effect during the last General Election, with disastrous results.

Tactical voting is for the textbooks, not the Polling Station.

Well in some bye-election seat this has happened but in others not so much so. what my surprise you is that as many as 20% of voters only make up there minds while standing within the polling station. so while this is hard to really believe I have seen much data on this subject to show this is in fact a case.

But if you take the Corby bye-election there will be three main campaign strategies. The Tory will try to whip up the people with local issues in the hope people will vote on this rather than the state of the national government or the economy. in fact based on polls this is there only real hope. The labour party strategy will be to try a whip up people to focus on the state of the nation economy. while the Lib/Dems will be seeking to hold its vote and will try to show it has been good locally.

Some people will not vote at all as its not a general election, while others will say there all the same so why bother to vote. (Tories will be feeding the why bother voting group) as they know this should be possible Labour gain. However, if they can get the why bother voting group bigger it will most likely be Labour votes saying it or doing it. as data shows that Tory voters are more likely to turn out and vote. as they see voting as a duty. while Labour voters do not see it so much this way.

Then they can say that Miliband is not popular with voters on the other hand Labour will be looking to up its vote, so they can say the voters are rejecting the Coalition. both the Tories and Labour will target the Lib/Dem vote, as it is known to be a soft vote and will brake 3 to 1 to the labour party if the polls are right.

All three parties have data that is done for there parties by private polling companies. in the 1980s the data was showed that about 2,500 to 5,000 voter would use a bye election for voter dissent. in the Fulham bye election victory we did private polling in to wards with 82% canvassing records over a 10 year time span. The data showed in that election Tory switch voters only named themselves dissent voter in 2% of the time. (youGov did the polling) now this many well of changed, but if it has it will not add up to as many who will name the economy as the main reason for changing there vote.

I would just love to see the private polling figures after Corby. but will not be aloud now.

The odd thing about so called Tactical voting is its not really been shown to work within the UK OW. yet you would think it would? yet does not so far?

Tactical voting is for the textbooks, not the Polling Station.

If Boris becomes PM I'll leave the UK - that doesn't mean you should all start campaigning/voting for Boris,

sickchip wrote:If Boris becomes PM I'll leave the UK - that doesn't mean you should all start campaigning/voting for Boris,

sickchip are you a Tory supporter ?

Would it be true to say that most contributors to this thread are completely dis-satisfied with our system of Government?

If so, what are the alternatives?

"If so, what are the alternatives?"

EXACTLY!!!!!!

Our political partys are more concerned with party politics, ego and personal wealth than making the UK a fairer and better place to live for the majority of the population.
I dont know what the alternative is because whoever is voted into power, we see the same things over and over again. The Tories, Labour and whatever a coalition is/could be just paper over the cracks with spin and empty promises.....I do not have faith in any of them to put the country and population ahead of their own party and wealthy friends

As for Boris being the Tory leader......Great! Why not get Mr.Bean to take charge of Labour...at least then it would be a fair fight

Blueturando wrote: Our political partys are more concerned with party politics, ego and personal wealth than making the UK a fairer and better place to live for the majority of the population.
I dont know what the alternative is because whoever is voted into power, we see the same things over and over again. The Tories, Labour and whatever a coalition is/could be just paper over the cracks with spin and empty promises.....I do not have faith in any of them to put the country and population ahead of their own party and wealthy friends.

Hello Blue, I have to agree to a point, but dont you think there are different levels of fairness and prommise breaking.

In 1997 when Labour last beat the Conservatives in an election, Labour had a Manifesto, just like all the other competing parties had. The main difference was that 80% of Labours manifest promises where implemented during the first term of parliament, much of the remaining 20% happened either as a matter of course or circumstances changed making them obsolete. This must have counted at that time as one if not the most honest of Governments.

My point is Blue, have the present Coalition kept to 20% of their Manifesto’s or the Coalition agreement, not only that but have also bought in changes they promised prior to the actual election would not happen, things like our NHS, and I’ll repeat our NHS, as it is predominantly the wage earner that pays the much bigger share, yet it is to be the Tory supporters and donators who will profit from it.

All they can crow about at the moment is the Olympics and the introduction of the Leveson inquiry. The Olympic bid was won by the Labour team who where in Government at the time, and the Leveson inquiry was a result of pressure bought about by Ed Miliband.

The only promise the Tories have in fact kept is that they will stick to their deficit reduction plans, even though they have put us in a double dip recession and will keep us there for God knows how long. When will they realise that their cure is worse than the disease.

As for inflated ego’s etc, you are of course right, unfortunately most who enter into politics do so for ideological reasons, yet when they start to climb the political ladder, their ego’s take over, unfortunately this is the type of person politics attracts. Fortunately we have choices and to my experience Labour has always been the fairer. And all we can now do is support who we think will do the right thing come the next election, and we know by what has become bitter experience the Tories will if re-elected in 2015 (if they last that long) finish off what they have started in turning Britain into Britain PLC.

As for your comparison with Boris and Bean, you couldn,t be more accurate. Only Rowan Atkinson the man is a Labour Supporter and an extreemly intelligent man.

Great post bobby, spot on.

Thank you Mel my Friend.

(msn)

Was there ever a more obviously opportunistic attempt to gain poliical advantage from a staged photo opportunity?!

What a dismal and pathetic prat.

Pass the sick bucket...

Phil Hornby wrote:(msn)

Was there ever a more obviously opportunistic attempt to gain poliical advantage from a staged photo opportunity?!

What a dismal and pathetic prat.

Pass the sick bucket...

Errrrrrrrrr, no, he is a highly educated Eton boy who is leader of a political party whom a persentage of the British public continue to vote for because it is they who are dismal and pathetic prats......

That's told me , then...