Latest polls

First topic message reminder :

Latest YouGov results are apparently:

Con 30%
Lab 42%
LDem 6%
UKIP 10%

So the drop in Labour's lead to single-digits in a different poll earlier this week was a 'blip', seemingly - the change was within the margin of error and not significant.

IVAN Thank you for pointing out the truth regarding the continual criticism, because Ed is not running around like a Hollywood Super Hero saving the people of the UK from the nasty Tories. What some do not realize they could allow the Tories back into power in 2015 via the Back Door, and that is the Tories plan because they know if Labour members & Labour voters are put off voting because of "All Politicians are the Same" syndrome the Tories will win in 2015.

All some of us are asking for is that Milly highlights the evil that the Tories are perpetrating - not for him to be on Britain's Got Talent or Celebrity Big Brother.

No doubt he is kind to children and dogs , but he needs to be seen DOING SOMETHING to actively oppose the Blue Menace...

I do understand what you and bobby are saying PH, but Ed is playing the Tories at there own game plus he needs to get a LABOUR MAJORITY gov't so Ed can REPEAL the nasty Tory bills, which means he needs to appeal to a wide section of people and within that wide section there IS people that actually Believe the Tory LIES of Scroungers & Skivers, most of us know its LIES but some still have there rose tinted specs on in regards to the Tory downright EFFING LIES.

Behind the scenes Ed and the Labour party will be doing stuff that we know nothing about, my story on the mole in a previous post is just a part of what Ed is having to deal with just think back on how Eds has had to deal with the right wing media and the Tories BELITTLING him with the whole of the UK listening in and reading of the character assination, and not just him but his family remember the nasty story in the right wing press about his father.    I know politicians are supposed to be thick skinned that all comes down too but this has been going on since Ed was elected Labour party leader and it did not help matters when he beat his brother by a whisker even that was thrown up in his face by the Tories and the right wing press.

If people do not watch what there doing they will allow the Tories back into power via the back door, I do not need to tell you what would happen to the UK if the BACKSTUDS Tories go into coalition with Ukip IF they get seats in the HOC.

The Tory's are not only the Government, they are also the opposition party to Labour. Lets face it, the Bastard Cameron and co are certainly opposing Labour and doing it to great effect, all I am saying is, how come opposition to Labour works but I hear stuff like " Ed is playing the Tories at there own game" when its plainly obvious he isn't, the Tory's work hard finding yet more lies and falsifying data getting publicity whereas Ed is doing Nothing. Red how can you accept Labours abysmal showing in the polls when Labour should be streets ahead with all Herr Cameron have done, something is missing and that is an opposition that will oppose.
I am living extremely comfortably, and that is not because I sat on my Tukas waiting for someone else to do something, I had to do it all my self and put in every hour possible, Ed Miliband should in my opinion adopt the same attitude, to date he has kept his powder so dry it blew away with the first slight wind.

I guess that's why they invented the word' complacency'...

bobby wrote:The Tory's are not only the Government, they are also the opposition party to Labour. Lets face it, the Bastard Cameron and co are certainly opposing Labour and doing it to great effect, all I am saying is,  how come opposition to Labour works but I hear stuff like " Ed is playing the Tories at there own game" when its plainly obvious he isn't, the Tory's work hard finding yet more lies and falsifying data getting publicity whereas Ed is doing Nothing. Red how can you accept Labours abysmal showing in the polls when Labour should be streets ahead with all Herr Cameron have done, something is missing and that is an opposition that will oppose.
I am living extremely comfortably, and that is not because I sat on my Tukas waiting for someone else to do something, I had to do it all my self and put in every hour possible, Ed Miliband should in my opinion adopt the same attitude, to date he has kept his powder so dry it blew away with the first slight wind.

The reason I accept what Labour is doing is because I am able to watch the debates in the HOC Bobby, and I do see Labour MPs standing up for there constituents and trying to choke the Tories with there LIES and there falsifying the stats from every department of gov't, it the Labour party that report the Tories to the INS (Institute for National Statistics) who then inform the newspapers who then print it. How do you think it came out about IDS fiddling the figures of all the section in the DWP.

I hknow its hard bobby but believe me Ed and the Labour party are working to show the people of the UK just what Scameron and his cohorts really are, because you are busy running yur business you can not watch the Parliament channel the way I do, and sometimes I have to walk away or I would put my foot through the TV I want to go through the telly and ram the Tory LIES down the throats of the Tory MPs.

How can you accept Labour’s abysmal showing in the polls when Labour should be streets ahead with all Cameron has done?

When Labour has lost power in the past there has usually been a bloodbath, the worst instance of which saw the formation of the SDP in 1981. Ed Miliband’s biggest achievement to date is in leading a largely united party. Labour won only 29% of the votes in 2010, its second worse showing since the 1920s, yet it has been ahead (albeit by a modest margin) in almost all opinion polls for the last three years. It’s an achievement that a party which received such a drubbing is the bookies’ favourite to win the 2015 election.

UK Polling Report is currently predicting an overall Labour majority of 44. Electoral Calculus is predicting an overall Labour majority of 40. Lord Ashcroft tells us that Labour is doing even better in marginal seats than the predicted uniform swing. That may be because Labour has more party members (that is, foot soldiers for the election) than the Tories and Lib Dems combined. It may also be because of the ‘Labour Doorstep’ campaign which takes place in many of the marginal constituencies almost every weekend. Maybe some of Ed Miliband’s detractors could consider joining the campaign instead of carping from the sidelines?

Yes, Labour ought to be streets ahead. But there is a fact that we mustn’t overlook – a lot of people actually approve of what the Tories are doing! They’ve swallowed all the shyte about benefit scroungers and immigrants, and they still believe the massive lie that Gordon Brown somehow managed to create a global credit crunch by spending record amounts of money on nurses, doctors and teachers. Labour spent far too long electing a new leader in 2010, and during that time the Tories (and Danny Alexander, same difference) managed to embed that lie in the minds of much of the electorate. Amazingly, more people would rather have Osborne (who wanted to be judged on whether we kept our AAA credit rating, which he proceeded to lose) and Cameron running (or should that be ruining?) the economy than Balls and Miliband. And here’s the biggest choker of all – the most popular member of the cabinet with Tory voters is the vicious, lying sociopath Iain Duncan Smith.   

Members of the shadow cabinet are doing things, but you could be forgiven for thinking otherwise if you rely on the media. The Tory press is only interested in printing stories about Labour if they can be twisted to negative or repeated out of context – the wreath on 4 August, the bacon sandwich, Harriet Harman’s remarks about tax. And the BBC is just as culpable. Are you aware of the People’s March for the NHS, following the basic route of the Jarrow Crusade of 1936? The marchers set off on 16 August and are due to reach London on 6 September? I wasn’t aware of this until somebody on Twitter told me about it. But at the risk of being called ‘complacent’, I’ll stick my neck out and say that I think the NHS will clinch it for Labour next May.

Some articles for further consideration:-

Don’t underestimate Ed Miliband, David Davis warns Tories

http://labourlist.org/2014/08/dont-underestimate-ed-miliband-david-davis-warns-tories/

Ed Miliband is an unusually strong leader

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/azeem-ibrahim/ed-miliband-strong-leader_b_3661956.html

The Future of the NHS - Ed Miliband's speech to the RSA

http://www.labour.org.uk/the-future-of-the-nhs---ed-miliband

Ed Miliband unveils plan for technical degrees if Labour wins 2015 election

Labour leader warns that 'forgotten 50%' of young people who choose not to follow a traditional academic route are at risk.

http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/jul/08/ed-miliband-labour-unveils-technical-degrees-plan

Ed Miliband's welfare plan: five years in work could mean extra benefits

Labour leader to say that party could increase unemployment benefit to as much as £100 a week for people who have worked at least five years.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10910642/Ed-Milibands-welfare-plan-five-years-in-work-could-mean-extra-benefits.html

... the most popular member of the cabinet with Tory voters is the vicious, lying sociopath Iain Duncan Smith.   

A fact which should come as no surprise to anyone , since the Tory mind loves the strutting,  jaw- thrusting cruelty of a real bastard who can make real the thirst for revenge upon any perceived enemy. They are a truly horrible bunch and their criminal Westminster Stormtroopers need to be disarmed ...

Undfneath all there Blubber all Tories are no different to IDS, they all have it within them to be NASTY BACKSTUDS that is the nature of the beasts, I for one will be laughing whenever something horrible happens to the Tory party.

Yesterday on twitter apparently a Tory MP had to wait 7 hours in agony in his local A&E department the staff has stuck him what was called a cupboard, it was so good to hear that a Tory MP had suffered under a Tory NHS something he had voted for made it even sweeter for me.

"  a Tory MP had to wait 7 hours in agony in his local A&E..."

A story to cheer the heart.

But why only 7 hours? Surely with a bit of ingenuity they could have prolonged the wait for this specimen ( who doubtless was a fully paid-up member of the ' don't you know who I am ' brigade)? A bit of pain enhancement wouldn't have gone amiss, either.

. The NHS clearly needs to improve its Tory MP waiting times...   

I would not be too surprised if the staff at the hospital knew exactly who he was, and gave him a taste of what he had voted for in the HOC in 2012.

A YouGov poll has been published tonight showing, for the first time, a lead for the Yes campaign in the Scottish referendum (51%-49%).

The most common reason for voting Yes which I've read on Twitter is to make sure that the Scots never have to suffer the Tories again. There is also a lot of animosity towards Labour - for doing the Tories' dirty work for them and fronting the No campaign because the Tories are too toxic. Now, just to make matters worse, Farage is planning another visit to Scotland, which will make a Yes vote even more likely.

I must say that I think it's been an abysmal campaign on both sides, consisting mostly of scaremongering. And although I'm sure that the Scots could survive on their own, I can't see how or why they would want to keep the pound and have their currency dependent on decisions made by the Treasury in London.

Prior to joining the Euro, Ireland decided in 1979 to separate from the Pound Sterling, and introduced its own currency and banknotes.



Within a short time, its exchange rate with GBP had dropped to 77 pence. A few years later, Ireland adopted the Euro, now worth 82p.

IVAN  You're spot on, can you tell me WHY Farage is coming up to Scotland ??  But what the Scots have not thought of is what will Salmond & the SNP will put in Scotlands Constitution because Scots will not have their say in that, all he wants the Scots for is to vote yes then you can P**S OFF while him and the SNP party stitch us up good style.

Electoral Calculus’s giant monthly survey is now predicting that 47 SNP MPs will be elected in May, depriving Labour of a majority (which requires 326 MPs):-

Labour 302, Tories 263, SNP 47, Irish 18, Lib Dems 16, Plaid Cymru 3, Independent 1, UKIP 0.

Try cobbling together a coalition out of that –  would Labour/SNP be feasible? I don’t think so.  

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

I doubt if Labour would go into coalition with SNP because the price would be too high = Another Independence Referendum.

But would Cameron stay in power by forming a coalition with UKIP? Answers on a toilet roll.

Bog roll flying your way OW, Cameron would form a coalition with anybody but Labour if it meant him keeping power for another five years.

May I ask you a question OW?

The facility for asking questions to individual members is the personal messaging system. Please use the threads to discuss the designated topic with everyone. Thanks.

On the basis of those figures provided by Electoral Calculus, Cameron would be 63 seats short of the slimmest majority and in no position to form a coalition with UKIP or any other single party.

Apologies.

Ivan according to the Electoral Calculus latest giant poll the figures state that it would be a overhung majority/parliament.
Did you get my private message?

stuart torr wrote:Bog roll flying your way OW, Cameron would form a coalition with anybody but Labour if it meant him keeping power for another five years.

Do not forget Clegg he would jump into bed with the Devil Himslf all for the sake of remaining in power stuart.

Redflag, the Americans have a neat phrase which confirms your belief: The only honest Politician is the one who stays bought!

Ivan wrote:Electoral Calculus’s giant monthly survey is now predicting that 47 SNP MPs will be elected in May, depriving Labour of a majority (which requires 326 MPs):-

Labour 302, Tories 263, SNP 47, Irish 18, Lib Dems 16, Plaid Cymru 3, Independent 1, UKIP 0.

Try cobbling together a coalition out of that –  would Labour/SNP be feasible? I don’t think so.  

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

The thing to bear in mind is that the different Northern Ireland parties are not separated in this op poll.
The current split is:
1 APNI - who takes the LD whip in the HoC
8 DUP - if push comes to shove, they'd align with the Cons.
1 Independent
3 SDLP - who take the Labour whip in the HoC
5 Sinn Fein - who don't take their seats in the HoC, as they won't pledge allegiance to the crown.

Of the parties who don't have an MP, one, the UCU, would take the Tory whip in the HoC.

Therefore, if these numbers stay the same (NOT a prediction), taking out the SF MPs, a party or coalition would need 321 seats to have a majority.

Hi Sharon
good to see you posting again, latest polls show almost a hung parliament if the Tories do not get back in really,

Sharon. Sorry to nit-pick over your arithmetic! There are 650 MPs; if the five Sinn Fein MPs don’t turn up, that leaves 645 who might. To have a majority, a government would need the support of at least 323 of them.

Just to muddy the waters, there is some speculation that in the event of another hung parliament, Sinn Fein MPs might take their seats at Westminster for the first time ever:-

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/will-sinn-fein-mps-take-their-seats-after-next-election

Ivan with 323 seats that technically would still leave another 327 would it not? so nit picking altogether labour or tory would need 326 out of 650 for more than half for a majority.

stu. If Sinn Fein has five MPs and they never turn up to Westminster, 323 out of the remaining 645 is a majority. However, if Sinn Fein does decide to take its seats in the future, then, as you say, 326 would be needed.

(P.S. You don't need to fill in that 'reason for editing' box if you're amending what is still the most recent post on a thread. )

Whatever the arithmetic suggests today, things may be completely different in six months time. As Harold Wilson notably commented, "A week is a long time in politics!"

I liked our Harold, and a week is ages sometimes is it not?

I think Harlold Wilson was one of Labour parties best PMs Stuart

After Clement Attlee, who I believe suffered a crisis of public confidence just before leading his party to victory.

He also managed to lead a recovery from a worse crisis than the present one (WW11)

They were the best two ladies, Harold was the best of our more recent times without a doubt.

Thank you stuart I just wish Ed could take some tips from Harold Wilson and then add a 21st century twist so that it fits todays politics.

so do I Redflag, then we would walk it by a mile

For Ed to win he is going to have to say he will re-nationalise gas & electric or the trains then the majority of the UK would vote Labour in 2015 it seems to be what everyone wants stuart.

Sounds like it does it not Redflag, and more speeches like last thursday which was brilliant.

Tonight's polls......

YouGov:   LAB 33%, CON 31%, UKIP 18%, LIB DEMS 7%, GREENS 5%

Com Res:  LAB 34%, CON 30%, UKIP 19%, LIB DEMS 8%, GREENS 3%

Going to be a close one according to those yes Ivan?

Very close stuart not unless the Labour party pulls a white rabbit out of the hat at the last minute.