Latest polls

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Latest YouGov results are apparently:

Con 30%
Lab 42%
LDem 6%
UKIP 10%

So the drop in Labour's lead to single-digits in a different poll earlier this week was a 'blip', seemingly - the change was within the margin of error and not significant.

The 'bounce' didn't last long. Latest YouGov:

CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%

blueturando wrote:-
And when nothing happens in April, what are you going to say Redflag?

Maybe it will be May. ‘The Daily Mail’ seems to think that Tory rebels are prepared to demand the removal of George Osborne as Chancellor if the economy fails to show signs of recovery by the time of the local elections.

Meanwhile, ‘The Guardian’ reports that the Tories are prepared to force a vote of no confidence in Cameron unless the party's poll ratings improve by the summer of 2014.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/02/tory-rebels-set-cameron-deadline-its-osborne-whos-greater-danger

How about letting the tories govern the south of the UK from and letting Labour govern the North?

It's true that, broadly, the picture will differ from North to South, but, living south of the divide, in a depressed seaside town where benefit cuts are going to bite very hard, I don't think we want the posh boys here any more than they want them up north.
Anybody round here not working in a salaried occupation is likely to be working seasonally - for minimum wage - and can't claim benefits for the 1 -3 months they're laid off between contracts, because they 'should have saved out of their earnings'

boatlady wrote:It's true that, broadly, the picture will differ from North to South, but, living south of the divide, in a depressed seaside town where benefit cuts are going to bite very hard, I don't think we want the posh boys here any more than they want them up north.
Anybody round here not working in a salaried occupation is likely to be working seasonally - for minimum wage - and can't claim benefits for the 1 -3 months they're laid off between contracts, because they 'should have saved out of their earnings'

That is shameful what about people paying there bills seasonal work does not pay a fortune how can you save out of that, we need to get rid of these EFFING Posh Boys before 2015 or people will end up suicidal with the worry.

I think a lot of people already are to be honest.

blueturando wrote:And when nothing happens in April, what are you going to say Redflag?

What will happen in April blue will WIPE the smile of your face and this Mealy Mouthed gov'ts, and it has already started as you will have seen on the news if Cameron and his bunch of dick heads think that spouting the same old TRIPE to the UK public sorry but that has worn very thin with the public and Cameron will not be able to pull the wool over the publics eyes anymore, they have woken up to him and IF this does not cause a general strike he will be getting off lightly but if you think he will get away with this you and him have underestimated the Great British public, but I suppose that is what he is banking on. If he thinks the summer riots where bad that will be nothing when its the adults that take to the streets and not the young as in the summer riots.

For what he has done to our Police Force I can not see them too keen on doing much when the riots start he is no Thatcher when she got them to do her bidding during the Strikes of the 80s, plus when it comes out that she was behind the black listing of those strikers the TORY PARTY'S NAME WILL BE MUD.

skwalker1964 wrote:The 'bounce' didn't last long. Latest YouGov:

CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%

These poll numbers, which showed a maintained Labour 12-point lead, didn't highlight an important point: Labour's share of the vote in the 1 Feb poll increased compared to before Cameron's Europe speech.



(From http://labourlist.org/2013/02/this-is-how-short-lived-camerons-europe-poll-bounce-was/)

boatlady wrote:I think a lot of people already are to be honest.

We do seem to be hearing of more suicides in the news boatlady, and things will only get worse come 1st April.

I believe Uncle Monty was right "shat on by tories and shovelled up by Labour". The next few week are a golden opportunity for not red Ed to be an effective opposition leader with the open goals of Europe and Gay marriage as the nuttier elements of the nasty party try to stop that "libertarian" eejit from UKIP gaining a foothold in serious politics and their hatred for something which really in the 21st century should be a non-issue.

I agree knarkybadger this gov't are a shower of EEJITS, do not worry Ed Miliband will step up to the plate and the tories are in for one hell of a shock very soon.

Yesterday's YouGov shows the biggest Labour lead since YouGov started doing regular polls of party standings in 2002:

CON 30%
LAB 45%
LDEM 11%
UKIP 9%

Even more interesting, to me at least, is the table (taken from the ConHome blog) that shows how Labour and the Tories are perceived by voters on a variety of issues:



Labour are unchanged or up in all categories, while the Tories are down in all but three (and merely unchanged in one of those). As you'd expect Labour beat the Tories on all the 'compassion-related' measures, and knock the Tories into a cocked hat on the NHS. The Tories still beat Labour on 'steering' the economy - but only by a single percentage point, down from 3 points.

Michael Gove's big 'con' on education seems to be clearly understood (as well it should, as apparently he's transferred over 500 schools worth an average of £10 million each to private hands, according to information I was given at a Westminster meeting last night!), with Labour scoring far higher than the Conservatives.

But I think a key item is the third one in the table. Labour, having gained a point while the Tories lost 2, now beat them for public confidence in helping businesses grow and recover. If the realisation is filtering through even to the usually dyed-blue business community that the Tories' deliberate and stubborn mismanagement of the economy is going to be bad for everyone in the long run, then it's a crucial and encouraging piece of news.

A couple of others that are interesting and encouraging to me:

On the question of 'Do you think the Labour Party is united or divided at the present time?' (which you can see, along with other figures, here: http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qrruukef6y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-040213-same-sex-marriage-divided-parties.pdf), 47% of those with a current intention of voting LibDem say 'divided'. But of those who voted LibDem in 2010, that figure drops by 17 points to just 30. That suggests to me a massive shift of 2010 LibDem voters away from any thought of voting for them again, with only a hard-core support remaining - who answered 'divided' out of loyalty to their party and out of a psychological need to think that Labour is in as much trouble as the LibDems are.

On the question 'Do you approve or disapprove of the government's record to date?', a massive 62% disapprove. This includes 68% of 2010 LibDem voters and even 52% of those who still intend to vote for them.

48% of voters think the government's spending cuts are bad for the economy - compared to 35% who think it's good. But a massive 61% answered that the cuts are being done unfairly. The Tories' lying attempt to present themselves as the party of fairness is clearly seen through by most of the public. As it well should.

On the negative side, 59% of respondents believe that the cuts are necessary. This highlights an area where Labour urgently need to start putting forward a different narrative - if 59% think they're necessary, but 48% think they're bad for the economy, there is a lot of confusion among voters and they will be looking for someone ready to paint a clearer picture for them, one based around a 'growth and healing' proposition, not a 'slash but a bit less unfairly' one. This is an area where Labour can gain a lot by being bolder.

Similarly, 38% think Labour to blame for the current spending cuts, versus 28% the coalition - even though the 2010 deficit was caused by a huge, global financial crisis (which the coalition is more than ready to use as an excuse for its own poor performance), and even though the economy was recovering before the 2010 election. Labour have to work hard to correct this perception - and to be much bolder in refuting the government's constant, shameless and unfounded 'inherited mess' mantra.

There are a lot more data and I don't have time to go into them all now, but these are some of the items that jumped out at me most strongly. It seems clear that Labour is doing well to date - but the figures also highlight the areas where they're not and, in my opinion, give a clear indication that Labour needs to be a lot bolder in refuting the government's accusations, and a lot more emphatic in how they do so.

Reasons to be cheerful - and resolute.

(You can see the full tables here: http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/amy2lnthes/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-040213-Trackers-EU.pdf)

"Reasons to be cheerful"

Absolutely, and let us be grateful for small mercies, but what a pity it will be if the only reason people give for a change of Government is that the next lot may hopefully be an improvement on the present lot.

oftenwrong wrote:"Reasons to be cheerful"

Absolutely, and let us be grateful for small mercies, but what a pity it will be if the only reason people give for a change of Government is that the next lot may hopefully be an improvement on the present lot.

The next Labour gov't will be a BIG improvement on this lot OW, at least it will be a fair gov't and the rich and wealthy will learn how to shoulder there part of the deficit with the rest of us and more importantly it will be FAIR for all and not just the elite.

oftenwrong wrote:"Reasons to be cheerful"

Absolutely, and let us be grateful for small mercies, but what a pity it will be if the only reason people give for a change of Government is that the next lot may hopefully be an improvement on the present lot.

Isn't that the usual reason anyway? It's just that the present lot are setting the bar particularly low...

blueturando wrote:And when nothing happens in April, what are you going to say Redflag?

So what your saying blue that the good people of the UK are spineless wonders, they will just sit back and let this shower of nasty BACKSTUDS make them homeless and starve them to death you along with this Incompetent gov't are in for a shock, they should be getting the people that caused this BANKERS to pay back "EVERY LAST PENNY" that we had to borrow to bail the GREEDY F**KERS, and if they do not like it TOUGH let them move elsewhere and see if that country would bail them out when they get up to there greedy tricks.

The Libor scandal was going on after WE the tax payer bailed them out which goes to prove they do not give too damns for anyone but themselves in my eyes we would be better without them as they do not earn the economy money they COST us money.

The Eastleigh by-election will be held on 28 February. There was a time when this constituency had a Tory MP with a 10,000 majority, but Chris Huhne has held the seat since 2005.

In the election of 2010, the Lib Dems won 47% of the votes in Eastleigh, the Tories 39%, Labour 10% and UKIP 4%. The latest opinion poll is suggesting that the Tories will win the by-election with 34%, followed by the Lib Dems with 31%, Labour 19% and UKIP 13%.

Ivan not unless the good people of Eastleigh get fed up hearing the L/Ds and Tories tearing each other apart also they will have been notified about the cuts that come into effect on the 1st April, bedroom tax council tax rises NOBODY is going to like that so if we are lucky we just MIGHT slip under the wire and win that seat, it would be great to see the faces of the L/Ds and Tories it would be like getting a punch in the mouth from the electorate. The L/Ds will see the true colours of the Tories during the run up to this by-election because they will LIE Cheat and Spin there way into the seat and that could have the desired effect for us the split of the coalition.

Clegg apparently thinks that his Party can RETAIN Eastleigh, given the increasing distance between David Cameron and his fellow Tory "supporters".

If he's correct, we can cheerfully expect to see the whole Tory plan for re-election in 2015 start to unravel.

Why bother voting LibDem when one can vote Tory? After all that is what Clegg fans ended up with as a result of their efforts in the 2010 General Election...

Phil Hornby wrote:Why bother voting LibDem when one can vote Tory? After all that is what Clegg fans ended up with as a result of their efforts in the 2010 General Election...

Your right PH all the L/ds are is YELLOW TORIES would sell here soul (if they have one) to the devil for an ounce of power i truly believe he would go into coalition with the BNP or EDL.

The author, broadcaster and comedy scriptwriter, John O’Farrell, has applied to become the Labour candidate in the Eastleigh by-election. If he is chosen, that could make things more interesting!


Source: newsbiscuit.com

I'm sure Labour Party tacticians will already know precisely how they propose to deal with the Eastleigh by-election, but in the unlikely event of my opinion being sought I think I would suggest a low-profile campaign which allows the Blues and the Yellows to slug it out between themselves, since the likelihood is that each would bloody the other, as in many fratricidal situations.

Ivan wrote:The author, broadcaster and comedy scriptwriter, John O’Farrell, has applied to become the Labour candidate in the Eastleigh by-election. If he is chosen, that could make things more interesting!


Source: newsbiscuit.com

What is your opinion of him Ivan ? when I phoned in to give a donation to help out with the fight for Eastleigh I suggested someone like Dan Jarvis ex armed forces, thanks to the Tory led gov't we will have plenty to choose from with all the sacking Cameron has done to our armed forces, it would also be TACTICAL.

Redflag wrote:

Ivan wrote:The author, broadcaster and comedy scriptwriter, John O’Farrell, has applied to become the Labour candidate in the Eastleigh by-election. If he is chosen, that could make things more interesting!


Source: newsbiscuit.com

What is your opinion of him Ivan ? when I phoned in to give a donation to help out with the fight for Eastleigh I suggested someone like Dan Jarvis ex armed forces, thanks to the Tory led gov't we will have plenty to choose from with all the sacking Cameron has done to our armed forces, it would also be TACTICAL.

Isn't Dan Jarvis already an MP for Barnsley or somewhere?

Barnsley Central - you obviously make a study of these things

Yes, Dan Jarvis won the Barnsley Central by-election for Labour in March 2011.

Labour will announce its candidate for the Eastleigh by-election on Tuesday evening:-
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-ofarrell-the-satirist-whos-suddenly-being-taken-seriously-8489024.html

skwalker1964 wrote:

Redflag wrote:

Ivan wrote:The author, broadcaster and comedy scriptwriter, John O’Farrell, has applied to become the Labour candidate in the Eastleigh by-election. If he is chosen, that could make things more interesting!


Source: newsbiscuit.com

What is your opinion of him Ivan ? when I phoned in to give a donation to help out with the fight for Eastleigh I suggested someone like Dan Jarvis ex armed forces, thanks to the Tory led gov't we will have plenty to choose from with all the sacking Cameron has done to our armed forces, it would also be TACTICAL.

Isn't Dan Jarvis already an MP for Barnsley or somewhere?

Yes he is Ivan, I said some one like Dan Jarvis ex armed forces.

I'm delighted to hear that the broadcaster John O'Farrell, a lifelong Labour Party member, has now been selected to fight the Eastleigh by-election on 28 February.

Eastleigh will set the seal on the Tory-led Coalition.

Which is unlikely to survive the Count.

Than which nothing is more important to the Nation's future.

Ivan wrote:I'm delighted to hear that the broadcaster John O'Farrell, a lifelong Labour Party member, has now been selected to fight the Eastleigh by-election on 28 February.

Can John O'Farrell change the outcome of the by-election Ivan ? there is going to be plenty of candidates standing I'm sure you will have seen on twitter that the nurses & NHS are putting up someone to stand in Eastleigh, and Labrokes bookies are giving John at 10/1 to win I was thinking of having a little flutter on him and if he wins would donate the winnings to the Labour party.

The worry is that the NHA Party's participation will split the left vote (including LibDem voters who might otherwise switch to Labour) and gift the Tories a victory. I'm a supporter of the NHAP in general, but not sure their deciding to stand in Eastleigh was a great decision.

From ukpollingreport.co.uk:

The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian has topline figures of

CON 29%(-4)
LAB 41%(+3)
LD 13%(-2)
UKIP 9%(+3)

changes are from their poll last month.

The 12 point lead is not too dissimilar from what other companies are showing, but ICM normally tend to show smaller Labour leads thanks to the reallocation of some don’t knows to the parties they voted for in 2010 (an adjustment that these days tends to help the Lib Dems and hinder Labour). The trend is the thing to watch… and the trend here shows a sharp movement towards Labour. It’s not something we have seen reflected in other polls over the last couple of days, so usual caveats apply – sure, it could be the first sign of a further swing towards Labour… or it could be normal sample error.

skwalker1964 wrote:The worry is that the NHA Party's participation will split the left vote (including LibDem voters who might otherwise switch to Labour) and gift the Tories a victory. I'm a supporter of the NHAP in general, but not sure their deciding to stand in Eastleigh was a great decision.

Skywalker I can understand but can you not give the people of Eastleigh the benefit of the doubt that when it comes to the vote they will use their heads and not their feet, knowing that the NHA party would only give them ONE MP and you and I both know that One MP can do nothing in the H.O.C.. I am sure that the people of Eastleigh that if they vote Labour that will give the Labour party ONE more MP and able to fight the Tories and L/Ds and their nasty cuts.

We are still smarting from all those "protest votes" in 2010 that produced the cruelty coalition.

Redflag wrote:

skwalker1964 wrote:The worry is that the NHA Party's participation will split the left vote (including LibDem voters who might otherwise switch to Labour) and gift the Tories a victory. I'm a supporter of the NHAP in general, but not sure their deciding to stand in Eastleigh was a great decision.

Skywalker I can understand but can you not give the people of Eastleigh the benefit of the doubt that when it comes to the vote they will use their heads and not their feet, knowing that the NHA party would only give them ONE MP and you and I both know that One MP can do nothing in the H.O.C.. I am sure that the people of Eastleigh that if they vote Labour that will give the Labour party ONE more MP and able to fight the Tories and L/Ds and their nasty cuts.

The people of Eastleigh have been crazy enough to vote Tory for years, then LibDem for years, so I find it hard to have much faith in their judgment, unfortunately. Given the scale of the task facing Labour, who were a distant 3rd in 2010, I don't think we can afford to tempt away even a few would-be Labour voters.

I live in hope, but without getting them up!

They don't like it up them Mr Mannering!

boatlady wrote:They don't like it up them Mr Mannering!

I think boatlady they aint going to like what is coming there way in April and I can see violence occurring to Tory MPs up and down the UK, when the cuts really dig in.

I wonder what the Polls will say about a "Give-away Budget" widely expected in 2014?

Ah there's the rub