Who does Gideon Osborne think he is kidding?

First topic message reminder :

This Tory-dominated government claims there is no alternative to austerity. Below, nine leading economists, including a Nobel Prizewinner and one of the Chancellor's own advisers, say that's wrong - and offer a different path:-

Cut VAT back to 17.5%
Christopher Pissarides
Agree financial transaction tax
Jeffrey Sachs
Reduce NI contributions
David Blanchflower
Print money for the public
Sushil Wadhwani
Start a national investment bank
Robert Skidelsky
Lift the cap on immigration
Jonathan Portes
Lend directly to small businesses
George Magnus
Launch a green new deal
Ann Pettifor
Set up a recovery fund
Christopher Allsopp

For the details of each of those suggestions, click on the links on this page:-
http://www.newstatesman.com/economy/2011/10/alternative-coalition

Why do politicians keep blaming consumer confidence for our flatline economy ?

It seems obvious to me that is was not just the state who over borrowed but the general public, did I not read in the middle of the last decade the British had the highest personal and credit card debt in the developed world ?

Easy credit is now gone, most are still paying the maximum affordable amount and some are intent on ridding themselves of this debt burden. Our boom was financed by debt, and until this debt is reduced to a manageable and affordable level then there will be no consumer spending revival, its got nothing to do with confidence and everything to do with balancing the personal budget.

In Oxfordshire £600,000 will get you a 4 or 5 bedroom detached house.......

So the Tories will lend you £120,000 interest free...only to be repaid on sale of the house.....

Astradt1.....So I take this budget measure is only available in Oxford? Or can buyers in Liverpool, Newcastle and Birmingham take advantage of this offer too?

The loan is interest free for THE 1ST 5 YEARS ONLY....Please read the small print

Tosh wrote:Why do politicians keep blaming consumer confidence for our flatline economy ?

It seems obvious to me that is was not just the state who over borrowed but the general public, did I not read in the middle of the last decade the British had the highest personal and credit card debt in the developed world ?

Easy credit is now gone, most are still paying the maximum affordable amount and some are intent on ridding themselves of this debt burden. Our boom was financed by debt, and until this debt is reduced to a manageable and affordable level then there will be no consumer spending revival, its got nothing to do with confidence and everything to do with balancing the personal budget.

This contribution seems to have been posted by an imposter, posing as Tosh, since it is an untypically wooly ragbag of received opinion.

Credit lubricates the wheels of Commerce. In England it rose to prominence alongside the development of the Railways. Government insisted that the Railway companies be obliged to convey the goods of anyone who owned a suitable piece of rolling-stock. The first finance companies were formed to allow firms in business to purchase railway wagons by means of payments spread over time.

The principle now extends to motor cars, white goods, and even foreign holidays, opening such choices to a public far beyond the Aristocrats and Royalty who would formerly have been the only people with the cash to enjoy them. The ready availability of a new car provides a living for thousands of working people from the car salesman back through factory workers, designers, advertisers and steel millworkers.

What Fire, Water and Credit have in common is that they can all be a good servant but a bad master. Used correctly each can be of great benefit, but abuse can have serious consequences.

Credit Good - Profligacy Bad, but Debt usually arises from outside uncontrollable forces such as unemployment, sickness or domestic disturbance. Properly managed, a sensible profit can be earned with borrowed money, and blanket generalisations add little to the debate.

blueturando. If you think Osborne’s interest-free loan for five years will do anything for Britain’s housing problems, then think again. As OW posted: “Prices rise to match the money available to pay them. Government subsidies will drive up the cost of housing by an equivalent value.”

The only solution is to build more houses, lots of them, private houses for those who can afford to buy and social homes for those who can’t. If you build enough houses, the prices will fall to affordable levels. Rather than using government subsidies to inflate house prices, that money would be better spent on employing builders.

Meanwhile, the right-wing think-tank Policy Exchange claims that 270,000 fewer new homes are being planned, after the abolition of regional targets. It says this Tory-dominated government from hell could end up presiding over the lowest level of house building since the 1920s:-
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/dec/28/coalition-preside-level-house-building

Osborne made it very clear on the Radio 4 ‘Today’ programme this morning that he’s not interested in social housing, which of course doesn’t fit in with his Tory ideology. But that’s about all you can expect from the man who must surely be the worst Chancellor in living memory – and with strong competition from both Anthony Barber and Norman Lamont, that’s quite some achievement!

blueturando wrote:

In Oxfordshire £600,000 will get you a 4 or 5 bedroom detached house.......

So the Tories will lend you £120,000 interest free...only to be repaid on sale of the house.....

Astradt1.....So I take this budget measure is only available in Oxford? Or can buyers in Liverpool, Newcastle and Birmingham take advantage of this offer too?

The loan is interest free for THE 1ST 5 YEARS ONLY....Please read the small print

Could you provide a link to this small print?

Credit Good - Profligacy Bad,

Profligacy=over borrowing, my post concerned over borrowing, pay attention when you agree with me and stop waffling on about railways.

but Debt usually arises from outside uncontrollable forces such as unemployment, sickness or domestic disturbance.

See note below.

blanket generalisations add little to the debate.

Sometimes the Truth hurts.

In my opinion(sorry to generalize again), there is still a housing bubble to burst in the UK, and the cuts in benefits to low income families may be the pin that will burst this bubble.

Household debt to low income caused the American property bubble to burst and their prices fell accordingly, however our house prices are now 60% higher than America compared to 20% higher in the 90's. This is a worrying increase in the differential values especially since we almost mirror their income figures and have a higher household debt to GDP ratio.

Approx 10% of householders are in mortgage difficulty, mostly low income, and they depend on their benefits to pay the mortgage. Cuts in benefits could cause another " sub-prime " crash which would trigger a housing price devaluation. It is safe to assume most of this 10% do not have any positive equity on their home and like Americans they will simply hand over the keys. The housing market is dead outside London, increasing the house supply with few buyers and tough mortgage requirements will drive prices down to a more realistic value in relation to earnings..

Telling low to middle income families to get more confidence and get out and consume more on credit is tantamount to economic suicide.

Sometimes the Truth hurts.

Ditto.

Ditto. (Sometimes the Truth hurts.)

Spooky stuff, my post was almost repeated verbatim by all panelists on THIS WEEK.

I am wasted on here.

You are valued on here, Tosh.

About 2.4 pence in old money for amusement value.
Especially that tic of adding afterthought postings at intervals after the opening broadside. The French call that Parole d'escalier as readers of this Forum will already know.

Especially that tic of adding afterthought postings at intervals after the opening broadside. The French call that Parole d'escalier as readers of this Forum will already know.

Avert your green eyes to the time of the last edit sweetie, and pick up your TV guide.

Getting back on topic, here’s an email which I’ve received and been asked to share with you:-

Hello,

The message of George Osborne's Budget was clear: growth down, unemployment up, borrowing up and millionaires laughing all the way to the bank. This was a more of the same Budget from a downgraded Chancellor.

David Cameron and George Osborne’s economic plan is failing, but they cannot bring themselves to admit it. They have no clue how to get the economy moving and too many people in our country are paying the price.

Our economy is flatlining, unemployment is going up, prices are rising faster than wages, and the government is now set to borrow a staggering £245 billion more than they planned to pay for this economic failure.

We needed a bold and radical Budget to kickstart our economy and help millions on low and middle incomes struggling with the cost of living.

We needed a bank bonus tax to fund a jobs guarantee for young people, a new lower 10p starting rate of tax to ease the squeeze, and investment to build 100,000 affordable homes and get construction workers back to work.

Instead, next month 13,000 millionaires will get a tax cut worth an average £100,000, while millions struggle to get by day to day and face cuts to tax credits, child benefit and the bedroom tax.

We need change if we’re going to rebuild Britain, but David Cameron and George Osborne can’t deliver it.

It is clearer than ever before that only a ‘One Nation’ Labour government can deliver the change our country needs to make the economy fairer and stronger and help people get on in life.

Thank you.

Ed Balls

Tosh wrote:

Especially that tic of adding afterthought postings at intervals after the opening broadside. The French call that Parole d'escalier as readers of this Forum will already know.

Avert your green eyes to the time of the last edit sweetie, and pick up your TV guide.

edited five times in total

You can have five gold stars against your name on the class noticeboard, as it's Friday, Tosh.

But isn't that an incisive contribution from Ed Balls? Says it all, really, as I'm sure you agree, Tosh.

---

Chancellor George Osborne unveiled dire growth and borrowing figures in the Budget
The UK's credit rating has suffered a fresh blow after a major agency placed it on watch for a downgrade.
Fitch warned the country faced a negative outlook days after Chancellor George Osborne unveiled dire growth and borrowing figures in the Budget.


Well, Well, Well, the triple a credit rating was what we the electorate where to measure the success of this rancid Government by.

The bastards have gone on and on yelling us how now it doesn’t matter, I wonder what the git will be saying if we are even further downgraded. We have also listened to the blatant lies with regards to the deficit being reduced by 25%, and this week its I third, we also keep hearing about the million jobs created by the private sector, which of course is another lie.

I honestly believe the Tory led Coalition never had any intention of correcting any of the problems brought about by the Bank Bailout, but are quite happy to allow things to run down to record low levels in order to implement their ideological agenda.

After almost 3 years of austerity and millions suffering and other committing suicide because they don’t know where or who to turn to, we find ourselves in a much worse position than we where when the arseholes took power. The rising economy and the falling unemployment they inherited from Chancellor Darling have both been turned upside down. The £ is worth less against the Euro and the Dollar, we have already suffered a downgrading in our triple a credit rating and it seems are about to suffer yet another. We have suffered a double dip recession which still could turn into a triple dip recession, borrowing has gone through the roof and only goes down in this failed Chancellors forecasts, and we know only too well what a Gideon Osborne forecast is and what its worth.

The swine that are currently running and ruining this country need to be dealt with now, its no good waiting, as the longer we wait the more damage they will do. Everything they say and do needs to be challenged and challenged with the same if not more effort they are putting in to implementing their ideology.

I have had other posters say, all we need to do is wait, well I’ve waited and sweet FA has or is happening, I don’t give a monkeys cuss what Labour will do when the election gets closer, we need to get our claws out now, and do them in anyway that is legal.

Anyone who’s countenancing waiting or keeping their powder dry are as far as I am concerned as much a waste of time as the Lib Dems.

bobby wrote:-
We need to get our claws out now, and do them in anyway that is legal.

Across the UK, there were 57 demonstrations against the bedroom tax last Saturday, but I heard no mention of the fact on the BBC.

This document is being circulated on Twitter by people who want to do something:-
http://www.unitetheunion.org/how-we-help/list-of-sectors/healthsector/healthsectorcampaigns/unite4ournhs/savingournhsinthenickoftime/

'The People's Assembly' is being launched next Tuesday morning at the headquarters of the Unite union:-
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/peoples-assembly-right-thats-enough-now-what-are-we-going-to-do-about-it-8499928.html

You could always help to give the Tories and Lib Dems a bloody nose in the council elections in May by canvassing or distributing leaflets for Labour during the next few weeks.

Across the UK, there were 57 demonstrations against the bedroom tax last Saturday, but I heard no mention of the fact on the BBC

Probably because it doesn't exist Ivan

Gosh, don't we live in exciting times. My hero (Ivan) even gets e-mails from Mr Ed, how exciting is my weekend going to be in comparison?

" ...how exciting is my weekend going to be in comparison?"

We imagine that it will be the usual pulling wings off small insects and dusting that limited-edition Airfix model of the Blessed Margaret, landy.

Once you've finished shaving your palms, of course...

blueturando wrote:

Across the UK, there were 57 demonstrations against the bedroom tax last Saturday, but I heard no mention of the fact on the BBC

Probably because it doesn't exist Ivan

The plan is to take money away from people for simply having something. Doesn't matter which way you cut it, it amounts to a tax.

Just like a mansion tax would be, except that would hit those who can afford it instead of the poor.

However, since there is a thread specifically on the bedroom tax on this board, can I ask anyone else responding on this matter to do so in that one, please?

blueturando wrote:

Across the UK, there were 57 demonstrations against the bedroom tax last Saturday, but I heard no mention of the fact on the BBC

Probably because it doesn't exist Ivan

So you don't like the nomenclature that the majority are using, blue. That's your privilege of course, but may put you at a disadvantage upon entering those parts of Britain where the natives like to speak Gaelic or Welsh or (dare I say patois?) because you will have to disagree with everything they say in order to be consistent.

edited five times in total

You are neglecting your train spotting.

But isn't that an incisive contribution from Ed Balls? Says it all, really, as I'm sure you agree, Tosh.

I agree this country and the developed world are up to their neck in debt and the pain as always will be born by the weakest, politicians tried to meet human expectation and demand by recklessly freeing up credit, and it all went horribly wrong.

I don't believe any party has the slightest clue how to get out of this mess without hurting some key parts of the electorate, and coalitions will be our only answer for another decade, it allows them to spread the blame and the responsibility for the inevitable pain to come.

In reality we are going through a suppressed depression, the only reason the capitalists suppressed it was because they need stable democracies to operate within, and a depression would have created anarchy and default.

It is obvious there are more voters who are better off than the weakest, a politician will not get into power if they ignore the interests of the majority.

The situation will change if the cuts create more weak and the pendulum swings back to them, its why this country never gets anywhere fast.

George Osborne’s economic policy is based on lies

by Alex Andreou

"On Wednesday the Chancellor announced his plan, hailed by many as a “steady as she goes budget”. I confess some confusion as to how this might be a good thing, when according to most indicators “she” is steadily going to hell. I am also bemused by the attention this man’s policy announcements have attracted.

The assumption that this government will implement anything it says, let alone implement it successfully, flies in the face of evidence. Infrastructure projects which will not be completed during this Parliament (and some which will not even have started), Enterprize Zones which are still being set up, two years after being announced, and have delivered 5% of the jobs projected, a Business Bank which is only now setting out a schedule for its creation, a Funding for Lending scheme (a replacement for the grand Loan Guarantee Scheme, scrapped after four months) which has actually seen lending drop dramatically.

Then there is a Back To Work programme which is actually worse at getting people into jobs than doing nothing, a Green Investment Bank whose only action so far has been to appoint an expensive private consultant, a Right to Buy home ownership scheme which has delivered 1.5% of the sales envisaged, a Big Society Bank for a Big Society which Cameron launched four times, that shows no signs of getting going and, in fact, hopes to have appointed a Chair by 2014! I could go on."

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/03/george-osbornes-economic-policy-based-lies

As I said, its all smoke and mirrors to give us hope, Labour would be just as impotent and clueless, we have a small internal market with huge debts nothing we do will affect a global recession.

Tosh wrote:As I said, its all smoke and mirrors to give us hope, Labour would be just as impotent and clueless, we have a small internal market with huge debts nothing we do will affect a global recession.

What do you intend to describe with the words "global recession", Tosh? A recession defines a situation in which there are Winners and Losers, relative to each other. i.e. The US Dollar rises and the Euro falls (or vice-versa). A GLOBAL recession must presumably signify that every one of the world's economies is relatively lower than .... what? The Vogon Intergalactic Bank of Proxima Centauri?

What do you intend to describe with the words "global recession", Tosh? A recession defines a situation in which there are Winners and Losers, relative to each other. i.e. The US Dollar rises and the Euro falls (or vice-versa). A GLOBAL recession must presumably signify that every one of the world's economies is relatively lower than .... what? The Vogon Intergalactic Bank of Proxima Centauri?

A global recession signifies the global economy has a combined capital value less than previous, the value of the market has RECEDED.

On this occasion you will not be charged my usual fee of 5 edits.

But is there still enough food to feed everyone, and enough raw materials to manufacture all the goods we need?
Because if there is - THAT for your global recession!!!

Such an argument founders on the simple fact that there is no accepted definition of "enough".

Capitalist market-makers jump out of upper windows because they "only" have enough cash left to support an average family for the rest of its life.

But is there still enough food to feed everyone, and enough raw materials to manufacture all the goods we need? Because if there is Basketball - THAT for your global recession!!!

I used to be an idealist but then I grew up to become a pragmatic realist, we are hard wired by millions of years of evolution to be both competitive and cooperative. No amount of reasoning will remove one or the other, no system can work without accommodating both genetic needs and the only system that can work is one that fulfills both instincts.

A completely cooperative human with no personal ambition does not exist, its a Marxist pipe dream, devoid of the realities of human nature. So we have capitalism walking the tight rope and socialism providing the safety nets, history has demonstrated it simply does not work if socialism becomes the leader, it stifles and chokes competition, ambition and more importantly individualism, the very quality that separates a human from an animal.

The outcome of this system naturally produces capitalists, the fittest amongst us, and they are not over enthusiastic about cooperation, they do not need it anymore. So politics is this infinite pendulum of competition and cooperation, and it results in a slow incremental redistribution of wealth, and I mean evolutionary slow. I read somewhere that the capitalists who owned all the real capital in the 18th century still own approx 70% of the world's current capital.

Eventually we will achieve the right mixture throughout the globe, and civilisation can proceed accordingly, however it must evolve at its own pace, we have tried imposing violent swings both ways and both did not work.
The rate of change is effectively determined by the majority, and if the majority is doing ok then the pace of change is annoyingly slow, such is the price of freedom and democracy.

skwalker1964 wrote:

blueturando wrote:

Across the UK, there were 57 demonstrations against the bedroom tax last Saturday, but I heard no mention of the fact on the BBC

Probably because it doesn't exist Ivan

The plan is to take money away from people for simply having something. Doesn't matter which way you cut it, it amounts to a tax.

Just like a mansion tax would be, except that would hit those who can afford it instead of the poor.

However, since there is a thread specifically on the bedroom tax on this board, can I ask anyone else responding on this matter to do so in that one, please?

When its taking off those that have plenty its a tax skywalker, and when there taking off the poor its NOT a tax so now they're trying to change the English language !!!

Tosh and OW

Very sadly, I do think there's some sense in what you say - however, I still think it's worth pointing out that we live on a small planet that could quite easily supply all our needs - puts the whole debate into an interesting perspective, and, if enough people start to think my way, maybe there can be change

The sad reality is equal opportunity for a section of our society is a complete irrelevance, if nature or nurture or both have been unkind then they are incapable of grasping opportunity, even if it was laid on a plate.

The underclass will always be with us, the unkind condition is inherited, we have a sizeable minority who are not competitive or cooperative, and morally we must pay our taxes to support them and stop them from becoming animals.

Don't agree about the 'underclass'
I agree there are people with different priorities, people whose talents are of less 'value' to the modern world, people who have been denied the opportunity to achieve their potential, even wicked and/or lazy people who may want to do you and I out of our hard-earned wealth.
None of these conditions, in my view, is inherited, although disadvantage over several generations can make it seem so.
Thanks to people who are not competitive, we have a number of individuals who are willing to carry out the low status, poorly paid tasks that enable us as a society to have a fairly high level of civilised comfort; thanks to people who are not cooperative, there have been various advances in thinking and various useful inventions. There have also been, it has to be said, numerous instances of criminal activity from those same uncooperative folks, but maybe that's the payoff.

The UK deficit is NOT being reduced, as the Tories add more than 50% to the national debt

The ‘real’ deficit number for the UK was £120.6bn in 2012/13; in 2011/12 it was £120.9bn. So simply put the deficit was exactly the same as the previous year – all that talk about ‘cutting the deficit’ has been just that, talk.

And what about the debt? Remember that when the Tories took office the debt of the UK was standing at around £770bn. Public sector net debt was £1,185.8 billion at the end of March 2013, equivalent to 75.4% of gross domestic product (GDP). That’s an increase in the debt of some 53% in just four years. So under the Tories, you know, those austere Tories, the debt has actually exploded.

There were some ‘one-off’ payments that flattered the figures in 2012/13 that won’t be around in 2013/14, including the £2.3 billion transfer to government of the final profits of the Special Liquidity Scheme (SLS) and the £2.3 billion receipt from the 4G spectrum auction.

After yet another year of massive deficits, increased government spending and exploding debts, we hope it can’t be long until the austerity myth in the UK is consigned to the dustbin of history, a place where it should’ve been put from the very outset.

For all the grisly details:-
http://www.goldmadesimplenews.com/analysis/the-uk-deficit-is-not-being-reduced-as-the-tories-add-more-than-50-to-the-national-debt-in-4-years-10561/

I demand a recount!
Another one!
and another one!
Keep going until you get a positive number.

0.3% will have to do then. Maybe the voters will think that's three percent.
More than they can get for their miserable savings anyway.

Now come on - be honest! Did we really expect that, with a load of local elections looming, there would be a finding of no - or negative- growth...?

Unlucky Phil, better luck next time


UK Growth in 2012 under the Tories - 0.3%

French Growth in 2012 under the Socialists - 0.0%

UK 2013 predicted - 0.9%

French 2013 predicted - 0.3%


I think it's clear the Tories will always be more successful on the economy than Labour/Socialists