Latest polls

First topic message reminder :

Latest YouGov results are apparently:

Con 30%
Lab 42%
LDem 6%
UKIP 10%

So the drop in Labour's lead to single-digits in a different poll earlier this week was a 'blip', seemingly - the change was within the margin of error and not significant.

A new all time low?...

In the past i have commented on the fact that candidates for elections seem to not bother going for door to door (unless there is a TV camera handy) relying on leaflets to set out their and tier parties aims, objective and aspirations ( Good Tory Buzz word)...This local election, the candidates for all four parties Conservative. Lib Dem, Labour and Ukip have not even bothered to send/deliver leaflets.....

Apart from going online to look at who the candidates were, the first sight of their names would have been on the ballot paper...

If they think so little of the electorate why should anyone vote for them......

The result has been a spoilt ballot paper.......

And a plague on all their houses......

I’ve just been comparing the percentage share of the votes in the South Shields by-election yesterday with what happened there in the 2010 general election:-

Yesterday:-
Labour 50.5% (down 1.5%)
UKIP 24.2% (didn’t stand there in 2010)
Tories 11.6% (down 10%)
BNP 2.9% (down 3.6%)
Lib Dems 1.4% (down 12.8%)

Yesterday there was an Independent Socialist, who took 3% of the vote and probably helps to account for the small drop in the Labour share of the vote (there may also have previously been a personal vote for David Miliband). It’s fairly obvious that the UKIP share was taken from the Tories, the Lib Dems and the BNP. The Lib Dems finished seventh and their share of the vote fell by 90%. It was the worst by-election result for the Lib Dems (and their predecessors, the Liberals) since the Second World War.

The Tory party's biggest donor has warned that "David Cameron faces a crushing defeat in the 2015 general election".

Billionaire businessman and polling expert, Lord Ashcroft, said: that "Tory voters still do not believe the Tories are on their side !"

He said that "as he sees it Labour were on course to gain an extra 109 seats, including 93 from the Tories". And that "that result would give Ed Miliband a comfortable majority of 84 seats."

---

"With friends like that, who needs enemies" they say.

Do any of you think that Lord Ashcroft is wrong ?

Regards....

Papaumau.

They're all at it, the scandal-mongering.

Today Lord Mandelson (remember him?) said that the Labour Party must not be so influenced by the Trade Unions.

Huh?

oftenwrong wrote:They're all at it, the scandal-mongering.

Today Lord Mandelson (remember him?) said that the Labour Party must not be so influenced by the Trade Unions.

Huh?

Even when Mandy was in the Labour gov't I did not like him I think it would be better if he went off and joined the Tory party where he belongs OW.

In spite of the constant media focus on the EU, on the supposed rise of UKIP and on how the supposed slippage of Labour's lead to 6 points reflects their inability to look electable, today's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times - hardly a friend of Labour - shows Labour's lead to be 11 points. Or pretty much where it was before all the furore and the 'let's make it all about the EU' gameplan:


(from http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7473)

Clearly not as many people are being fooled by the manufactured obsession with the EU as the Tories, UKIP and the media would like. However, I believe Labour need to formulate a much clearer and more aggressive line to combat the continuing saturation coverage given to the issue.

New poll: public trust Labour over Tories on most policies

Extracts from an article by Don Paskini:-

“Lord Ashcroft has published some research which polled people on whether they preferred Labour or the Conservatives on a range of policy areas.

On the economy, people backed Labour over the Tories by 24 points on ‘cutting the deficit without harming the vulnerable’. Labour was 9 points up on getting the balance right between tax rises and spending cuts and 3 points ahead on helping business. The Tories were 1 point ahead on steering the economy through difficult times.

On other issues, Labour was 30 points ahead on looking after the NHS. Michael Gove’s radical school reforms have propelled the Tories to a 15 point deficit on improving standards in school.

On both crime and immigration, Labour and the Tories are tied, while on ‘tackling welfare abuse’ the Tories are five points ahead. On all three issues, public opinion has been moving towards Labour since January of this year.”

http://liberalconspiracy.org/2013/06/08/new-poll-public-trust-labour-over-tories-on-most-policies/

"Always remember, to have been born British is to have won First Prize in the race of life."
Cecil Rhodes

Emotionally stirring, suggesting that the end justifies the means. I sincerely hope that Labour ousts this spiteful Tory-led coalition at the end of the next General Election, but to win by default is hardly the stuff of dreams.

I think OW that by the time the 2015 G.E. comes along the Labour party will be high in the polls and the Tories will be lower in the polls than the Lib-Dems.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the polls as Labour rolls out more detail of their 2015 manifesto commitments and policy directions. I think the lead will increase, unless the media really get behind Cameron (or some other Tory).

Aren't polls marvellous.


Labour lead smallest for a year as Ukip threatens all three parties

The Independent's "poll of polls" reveals Ed Miliband's fortunes waning since Febrary
Andrew Grice Author Biography

Monday 10 June 2013


Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has dropped to its lowest level for more than a year, according to The Independent’s latest poll of polls.

It suggests that Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party is eating into Labour’s support as well as harming the Tories. Labour enjoyed an eight-point advantage in April but last month that dropped to five points in May, its lowest since March last year.

Despite a flatlining economy and Tory divisions over Europe and gay marriage, Labour’s lead has been on a downward track since February this year, when it was 13 points ahead. The latest weighted average of the polls puts Labour on 35 per cent (down four points on the previous month), the Tories on 30 per cent (down one point), Ukip on 15 per cent (up three points) and the Liberal Democrats on 11 per cent (unchanged).


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-lead-smallest-for-a-year-as-ukip-threatens-all-three-parties-8652863.html

Polls are trumped by a General Election.

tlttf. If you knew the first thing about polls, it's that they all come with a warning of a margin of error of plus or minus 3%. There is no evidence whatsoever that the far-right UKIP is taking votes from Labour supporters, which in itself would be an absurdity. Why would any Labour supporter support the removal of all employment rights and safety at work legislation?

The only hope Farage has of getting any MPs in the next general election will be to make a deal with the Tories. If it isn't bleedin' obvious to anyone now that UKIP is just a nasty, grubby extension of the right-wing of the Tory Party, it certainly will be when that happens. If you think that will attract Labour voters, dream on, but then I suppose most of us have got used to your odd blend of wishful thinking and fairy stories.

UKIP do seem to be having a little day in the sun - for one, I'm quite glad - all this publicity they're getting is certainly bringing out all the skeletons

It's significant that UKIP is not under the same pressure to declare its Policies so far ahead of an election. Nobody thinks that their plans involve the well-being of anyone else.

Have they got more than one policy?

Unfortunately they have.

".... if the UK were to pull out of the EU that would only be phase one, as far as Farage is concerned."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jan/07/nigel-farage-party-eccentrics-ukip

Scary - like letting Lucrezia Borgia cook your dinner - it would be interesting but ultimately fatal

"The pellet with the poison's in the vessel with the pestle; the chalice from the palace has the brew that is true!"

Danny Kaye  The Court Jester, 1956

See what can happen if pollsters check whether the person is a labour supporter before asking the question?  


British public wrong about nearly everything, survey shows

Research shows public opinion often deviates from facts on key social issues including crime, benefit fraud and immigration
Jonathan Paige

Tuesday 09 July 2013

A new survey for the Royal Statistical Society and King's College London shows public opinion is repeatedly off the mark on issues including crime, benefit fraud and immigration.

The research, carried out by Ipsos Mori from a phone survey of 1,015 people aged 16 to 75, lists ten misconceptions held by the British public. Among the biggest misconceptions are:

- Benefit fraud: the public think that £24 of every £100 of benefits is fraudulently claimed. Official estimates are that just 70 pence in every £100 is fraudulent - so the public conception is out by a factor of 34.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/british-public-wrong-about-nearly-everything-survey-shows-8697821.html

See what can happen if pollsters check whether the person is a labour supporter before asking the question?  Smile

Could the same be said if the the pollsters were to check which 'newspaper' people read before asking the question?

Would a Tory voter give a more accurate (Unbiased!) answer?

".... a phone survey of 1,015 people aged 16 to 75 ...."

0.034 percent of the population. Solid.

tlttf. I think you'll find that it's Tory trash who are wrong about almost everything, Tory sycophants who have listened to the endless lies from the sociopath Iain Duncan Smith about benefit fraud, and brain-dead Tory tax exiles who claim there is a "benefit dependency culture" in this country, something which has been disproved any number of times on this forum.
 
Never mind, you carry on supporting 'independents' today, UKIP tomorrow, and the bloody Tories (who you vote for) all the time, but you still won't fool anyone.
 
Back to the drawing board, old chap.

I think Ivan tittf needs to take a look on twitter, there are plenty of people on there that can no longer be taken in by Tory BLATANT LIES, coming from every department of this gov't.

I thought I’d pre-empt the predictable 6am posting from our 'Daily Mail' reader, by pointing out now the rogue ICM poll which appeared today:-
CON 36%, LAB 36%, LD 13%, UKIP 7%.
 
No doubt that will be of some comfort to desperate Tory/UKIP/independent supporters, but like any single poll it comes with a few health warnings:-
- Other polling companies are recording Labour leads of between 7 and 11 points this week.
- The sample size after removing ‘don’t know’ and ‘will not vote’ was only 459. (The usual number is at least 1,000.)
- Before adjustment for likelihood to vote, the scores were Con 33%, Lab 37%, more in line with ICM’s traditionally lower Labour lead.
- The UKIP score has lost several points, seemingly without justification. This is probably incorrect, judging from other polls. If it is correct, Farage's motley crew will rise again before 2015 because of the European elections, in which they traditionally do well.
I trust that nobody will get their incontinence pads in a twist over this non-story.
 
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

The usual poll respondents are presumably at the seaside this week.
Fleet Street have always referred to this time of year as "The Silly Season".

I trust that nobody will get their incontinence pads in a twist over this non-story

I trust that if a poll showed a Labour lead of 15 points that would suddenly become a story? In truth I hope you and other Labourites continue to believe that Labours shrinking lead is just propaganda and non stories, it will make things much easier for us come 2015...Keep up to good work Ivan  

blueturando. Anthony Wells of YouGov says that the level-pegging poll is probably a sample error. The same would be true if a poll showed a Labour lead of 15% or more.
 
As two polls released on 12 July (YouGov and Opinium) had the Labour lead up at 11%, not down, it would be a good idea if you checked the facts first before opening your trap. But then I nearly forgot, you’re a Tory and Tories don’t like facts, as Iain Duncan Smith explained yesterday – he prefers his beliefs.

blueturando wrote:

I trust that nobody will get their incontinence pads in a twist over this non-story

I trust that if a poll showed a Labour lead of 15 points that would suddenly become a story? In truth I hope you and other Labourites continue to believe that Labours shrinking lead is just propaganda and non stories, it will make things much easier for us come 2015...Keep up to good work Ivan  

First of all, I would like to draw your attention to the highlighted portion of your above post blue "In truth" this comimg from a tory supporter, I almost lost my incontience pad (as you put it) at the sheer gall of your implication that there is truth coming... Labour may have taken a dip in the polls, according to your figures anyway, However have you considered that this is only due to the hugely negative spin that has come from your side?.... Now if you were only as good at managing the economy as you are at lying your little asses off, the economy would not still be in the toilet!

As for the delusion of another win in 2015 either solo or again as part of a coaltion, the only way that would happen is by taking us back to the 1860's when only the upper classes could vote then you could be fairly certain of another win. As time travel has not yet been invented I would suggest that even with all the slander and bullsh*t that you are throwing around to discredit the Labour Party, the UK public are a very savvy lot and can generally see through the crap very quickly... Mind you watch for the return of the bullsh*t your side are throwing around is may just come back to hit your guys right in the face.

So you keep thinking that the Tories will win a majority in May 2015 IF THAT BRINGS YOU COMFORT

skwalker1964 wrote:http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jul/13/labour-lead-tories-opinium-poll?CMP=twt_gu

The polls are quite revealing skywalker but never the less glad to see some people are waking up to the Tories NASTINESS, and who funds them Wong & Quick Quid and the misery these companies bring to the good people of the UK.

There's a surprise - the Tories are the most disliked party in Britain, followed by UKIP:-
 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BRtidoJCUAM124z.jpg

Ivan it is good to see the polls IMHO it took the Tories 13 years to get back into power it will be the TWELFTH OF NEVER before they ever get voted into power again.   Every time there is a general election I will make it my duty to remind people of the years from 2010 to 2015 and what the Tories did to the UK and if people vote Tory they better be prepared to have their NHS sold off to the Tory donors and friends of the Tory party.

The Labour vote is actually the strongest of all parties
 
by Neil Foster
 
"How strong is Labour’s support right now? YouGov have just published the full data tables from a poll they recently conducted for Prospect last month. What I find interesting is that contrary to the suggestion from some areas of the press that Labour’s support is ‘soft’, it actually is the firmest of all the four leading parties.

There is real cause for encouragement from this poll. Not only is Labour resting on the firmest electoral foundations of all four parties, but that it has the potential to win many more supporters, although by and large not from Conservatives.

There is a gulf between poll leads and election victories, and so turnout and enthusiasm really matters. Labour’s poll lead over the Conservatives may fluctuate, but do not make the mistake of thinking this must mean support for Ed Miliband’s party is ‘soft’."
 
Details here:-
http://liberalconspiracy.org/2013/08/23/the-labour-vote-is-actually-the-strongest-of-all-parties/
 
Latest polls:-
 
YouGov/Sun – LAB 39%, CON 32%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 10%
Populus – LAB 38%, CON 30%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 12%
Opinium/Observer – LAB 36%, CON 29%, UKIP 18%, LDEM 8%
 
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

The polls are looking good Ivan and have done for the last 3 years, all it will take now is for Ed Miliband to get out a bit more and meet the people and talk to them to let them see the good man he is. Then the policies in their Manifesto should do what is needed for the Labour party and Ed to win the general election in 2015 with a majority of seats in the HOC.

The Tories have a bigger problem than just UKIP
 
by Leo Barasi    
 
"Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll of key marginals has been interpreted as showing three things:
1) Labour is doing very well against the Tories in the Tory-Labour battlegrounds.
2) The Lib Dems are doing less well but still ok against the Tories in the Tory-LD battlegrounds.
3) The Tories’ problems are a result of their voters defecting to UKIP.

I agree with the first two interpretations, but the third looks to me to be a misreading of the data. Its extensive coverage in papers that would prefer Cameron to be more UKIP-like – the 'Telegraph', 'Mail' and 'Express' – suggests wishful thinking.

This is a poll of constituencies the Tories hold, so at the last election Labour was slightly behind in all of them. Yet now the headline voting intent figure has Labour 13% ahead."
 
In 2010, 38% of UKIP supporters in these marginals voted Tory, 15% voted Labour, 8% for the Liberal Democrats – and, most significantly of all, 39% didn’t vote at all. As Barasi concludes: "The idea that UKIP is the reason the Tories are behind in these key marginals is just not true – or at best it’s a quarter of the truth."
 
Full details and charts here:-
http://liberalconspiracy.org/2013/09/16/the-tories-have-a-bigger-problem-than-just-ukip/
 
There’s more bad news for Cameron here:-
 
Mumsnet poll reveals collapse in female support for Tories
 
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ladies-turning-mumsnet-poll-reveals-2276653

Quote: Mumsnet poll reveals collapse in female support for Tories

Cameron's failure to keep his promise (!) to appoint more females to Cabinet, Gideon's litle tax adjustments to child benefit and Gove's hostility to Teachers coupled with Jeremy *unt's attitude towards Nurses aligns our Tory-led government with some of the more entrenched Middle East beliefs.

Remember this when you vote, Ladies.

oftenwrong wrote:Quote:  Mumsnet poll reveals collapse in female support for Tories

Cameron's failure to keep his promise (!) to appoint more females to Cabinet, Gideon's litle tax adjustments to child benefit and Gove's hostility to Teachers coupled with Jeremy *unt's attitude towards Nurses aligns our Tory-led government with some of the more entrenched Middle East beliefs.

Remember this when you vote, Ladies.

OW I do not think any Man or Women will forget or Forgive this gov't come May 2015.

Now we've sorted that, what shall we do for the next twenty months? My wax image of the Chancellor has got so many pins stuck in, it faces magnetic north.