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Major power shifts as a direct result of oil price collapse?

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Major power shifts as a direct result of oil price collapse? Empty Major power shifts as a direct result of oil price collapse?

Post by patakace Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:06 pm

OPEC still accounts for ca. two thirds of world oil and gas output .
OPEC has largely determined the collapse of prices by refusing to cut production in a period of dropping demand. Further, it has repeatedly stated that even a price like $20 will not change its policy/strategy .
It publicly states that it wants to stop its market share falling, principally by hitting at cost sensitive sectors -- with US fracking a clear top target.
Definitely not, imo.
Far more likely that Saudi Arabia and the US are strategically carving up the middle east with the Saudis promised a trouble free path to complete Sunni dominance. This is publicly denied but that is hardly surprising.
As a welcome by-product for  " neo-con" type thinkers , troublesome states will be bankrupted or drastically punished .
Top of that list is Venezuela which is a pain in the proverbial for the US,  mainly because it is far too friendly with Moscow and has huge reserves. Next is Russia itself which is also being thrashed with sanctions because of its invasion of Ukraine in the south and east. And Iran is also being heavily squeezed and has started to publicly bleat and whine.
It is nearly a decade since the US officially defined its revised Geo Political Strategy and that included control of natural reserves and distribution routes that stretched in a huge crescent from Afghanistan to Nigeria and covering all of the usual suspects en route.
What reaction to you expect from China and Russia principally? ( Japan is out of the game )
Surely a psychopath like Putin is not going to stand idly by and watch his personally owned country disintegrate. Where will he invade next to keep his stupid electorate on his side?
Or will he try manipulating gas supplies and /or prices ? Or will he be pushed out by moderate oligarchs who are prepared to take on the middle class essentially made up of the Military, FSB and Mafia?
Or are there other scenarios, one involving " Sun Gas " as it has popularly been named. For those that are interested in this new fuel, DYOR .

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Post by Ivan Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:01 pm

The owners of this site, Forumotion.com, don’t like us using what they call “SMS-style language”. As we’re not on Twitter, and therefore not restricted to 140 characters, I wouldn’t have thought there was any need for it here.


It’s hardly surprising that a thread which has been up for almost a week has had no responses when readers are contemptuously told ‘DYOR’. For those members not familiar with all internet slang, that means “do your own research”. If you want someone to follow your reasoning, and possibly reply, it’s a good idea to explain what you are talking about. Does it really take more than a couple of minutes to define a phrase such as ‘Sun Gas’? Or at least to provide a link?


The theory offered in the opening post has some credibility, though I don’t see Venezuela as much of a threat to the USA. Perhaps the price fall is a move to cut down the money which the Islamic State monsters make from selling oil on the black market, or maybe it’s just that even though demand has dropped, no country wants to cut production and risk losing its market share. Sometimes the simplest answer is the right one (Occam’s razor).

I have no time whatsoever for Putin, but whether he’s a psychopath or just a megalomaniac might be best left to mental health experts. Even so, his “stupid electorate” may feel happier with him than they were with the corrupt buffoon Yeltsin, who auctioned off Russia’s public assets for a fraction of their worth. According to the World Bank, the number of Russians living below the poverty line rose from 2 million to 74 million in eight years during the 1990s. That's what can happen when you follow the policies of the Chicago School, as Pinochet, Reagan and Thatcher were blind enough to do. Chapter 11 of ‘The Shock Doctrine’ by Naomi Klein goes into what happened in Russia in much more detail.


Yeltsin’s policies created some obscenely rich and dodgy oligarchs, one of whom lived in the Kremlin with him and later bought and improved the fortunes of Chelsea F.C.  Basketball

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Post by patakace Wed Jan 21, 2015 12:33 am

No replies were expected . It was  my  test  of Forum limits .
In the World Issues section there has been nothing apart from "me" since December 7 .Staggering and awful .
But no different from American Forums where  almost universally there is nothing known or discussed  outside of the USA unless American troops are involved .

God knows what the  SMS style has  to do with my OP
As for abbreviations  .Do you really mix with people who do not understand the meanings  of  OPEC , FSB and DYOR ?
The former is in the dictionary , just  like FTSE index and dozens of others .
And anybody baffled by the  use of FSB knows nothing about Putin and Russia .

The theory espoused by Klein is nonsense . Gangsters  simply divided matters post 1991 on the basis of organised crime syndicates  , and later  , Putin pulled them into line to become his Family and exclusive possession .He became Russia and under his power model of vertical integration nothing but nothing is ever done without the direct and detail knowledge of this one man and his inner circle .
Putin was a petty juvenile criminal until dragged off the streets to take up Judo . He became a millionaire in St Petersburg in the early nineties working with the Tambov crime syndicate to steal millions from the Russian people in terms of food and basic living requirements plus huge slices from the Casinos which he  -- as effective Mayor of St P ---   plus  the Tambov gang stole from .
To escape prosecution and imprisonment he called in favours in 1996 and went to Moscow .He met Berezovsky who was Abramovich's mentor and the rest is much better known .What is not commonly known is that Putin turned down the Presidency and just wanted Gazprom --- effectively Russia's biggest bank which is riddled at board level with his relatives , his old judo instructor until he recently died , and old colleagues from St Petersburg and particularly members of the University Law faculty where he was allowed to graduate . ( money still buys a degree anywhere in Russia today ) . Tragically Berezovsky changed  Putin's   mind  about becoming President , got him elected almost single handed by using his own TV station  , but  became too close to Putin and when they finally fell out , he signed his own death warrant . Putin had him  assassinated  in London two years ago .
Perhaps you are beginning to see that my direct knowledge of this era is extensive . I have travelled hugely in Eastern Europe and all over Russia up to the Asian border --- usually taken to be Ekaterinburg .
Outside of city centres the whole country is a ghastly mess with third world poverty levels and an infrastructure that is either in ruins or is falling into ruins . But in key cities  if you order a pink Rolls Royce tied with a blue ribbon you can have it within hours .
Returning to the post 1990/1 period , Yeltsin had no policies other than stealing as much as possible from stupid Americans and ensuring that organised crime remained the basis of the Russian economy .
Ironically I know the life of Abramovich in some detail . I have yet to meet him despite him living quite close in Sussex  ------   him  , his nymphet wife and private army of around 300 .
I would love to be a fly on the wall when he lunches with MI5 and 6 personnel as he remains a  very close friend of Putin though arguably not within the innermost few who run the State for their benefit and theirs only .
The Oligarchs simply do as they are told politically and  in return are allowed to carve up everything else . As I am sure you know ,  Putin made Khordokovsky an example of what would happen to anybody trying to disobey Family Rules . And journalists are simply murdered or disappear .

My main links are my life measured in travel and the Russian people I know all over Russia and also  here in London and Sussex .

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