Most likely result of the general election in 2015?

Looking at the current state of UK politics what do you all think is the most likely outcome of the next General Election?
 
Personally I think Labour will win but not with a out right majority (as it currently stands at least).
 
I had a quick look and couldn't see another thread like this but if there is my apologies.

Tashski wrote:Looking at the current state of UK politics what do you all think is the most likely outcome of the next General Election?

Personally I think Labour will win but not with a out right majority (as it currently stands at least).

I had a quick look and couldn't see another thread like this but if there is my apologies.

If the Liberals are wiped out and the Weirdoes take a third of the tory vote?   Even given their current urge to do without money or real support I can't see anything but a straight Labour win over Cameron's class warriors meself.   Why do you suppose otherwise - been reading the newspapers?

I hope you have got this very wrong Tashski, Labour needs a majority gov't so they can undo all the nasty laws this SCUMBAG of a gov't has passed. I think it just means Labour party members and voters will have to work extra hard at getting people off there butts and out to the polling stations across the UK.

The most important point to make is that allthough the Tories are in government, they will be starting from a weak position with no majority and no opinion poll has had them ahead for over 3 years.

There are some uncertainties with the 2015 election that are going to make it interesting, not least the threat from UKIP and the current all time low of the Liberal Democrats, both of which will favour Labour.

My guess is another coalition, but this time it will be a Labour-Lib Dem coalition which unlike the present coalition is much more natural, and as much as some Labour supporters may not like the idea, there may not be any other choice.

I fear the government will get in as usual...           

Before the next General Election, we shall already know whether the Scots have cast England adrift. That could be the game-changer.

When it comes to predictions, my ‘bible’ is Electoral Calculus, for two reasons:-
1. It uses much bigger samples – 10,000 voters, while most pollsters use 1,000.
2. It was the most accurate pre-poll predictor at the last general election in May 2010.
 
This is what Electoral Calculus is currently predicting for 2015:-
Labour 354, Tories 243, Lib Dems 21, UKIP 0, Others 32. Overall Labour majority of 58.
Probability of possible outcomes: Tory majority 7%, Labour majority 73%, Con/LD coalition 4%, Lab/LD coalition 10%, No overall control 6%.
 
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
 
However, there’s still 14 months to go, and the Tory dirty tricks machine is in full swing. Falkirk, Ralph Miliband, Paul Flowers, Harriet Harman, now even the Ukraine crisis, are “all Labour’s fault”. ‘The Daily Mail’ may well have its ‘Zinoviev letter’ moment nearer the election. The Tory philosophy is that it doesn’t matter how you win, what lies you tell and what smears you spread, as long as you win.
 
Tory dirty trickster Lynton Crosby favours the ‘throw a dead cat on the table’ strategy. Boris Johnson said: "Let us suppose you are losing an argument. The facts are overwhelmingly against you, and the more people focus on the reality the worse it is for you and your case. Your best bet in these circumstances is to perform a manoeuvre that a great campaigner (Crosby) describes as 'throwing a dead cat on the table, mate'. Then everyone will be talking about the dead cat, the thing you want them to talk about, and they will not be talking about the issue that has been causing you so much grief."
 
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2013/11/24/the-dead-cat-strategy-how-the-tories-hope-to-win-the-next-el
 
When Harold Macmillan was PM, he said his biggest challenge was “events, dear boy”. The Falklands conflict saw the Tories move from third place in the polls to a landslide win in just over a year. At the moment, the most likely result of the next general election is an outright Labour win, but unforeseen events – and dirty tricks – could change all that.

Why wouldn't it be an option for an Opposition to produce their own somewhat indisposed moggy at an opportune moment...?

Personally I would like to see a hung parliament, all 650 of them.

Interesting source of information, I have not heard of them before, I have bookmarked them (electoralcalculus).

The UK Polling Report has some basic tools which you can use by feeding in voting scenarios, based upon their "United Kingdom Polling Report Average, that is of all polls, the current prediction is a Labour majority of 58.

I would say the biggest threat to a Labour majority is an improving economic outlook, and I also believe that the Tories "achilles heel" is the NHS, and I hope that Miliband will either exploit it, or has it lined up as a major issue to focus upon.

witchfinder. It’s good to see the forum founder here again!   
 
It’s interesting that the Electoral Calculus prediction is currently the same as the UKPR average, namely a Labour majority of 58. The polls during this parliament have been amazingly consistent when compared to previous ones. Since the mass exodus from the Lib Dems took place after their MPs joined this awful government, the Labour vote has stabilised at around 37-40%. I believe it was Anthony Wells of YouGov and UKPR who noted that Labour supporters are the most likely to vote in next year’s general election. Meanwhile, Lord Ashcroft’s polls suggest that Labour is doing better than its national average in the 108 marginal Tory and Lib Dem seats which it has targeted.  
 
The improving economy doesn’t exist for most people. The Tories try to tell us that inflation is only 1.9%, when the price of food in the shops has definitely increased and most of us are paying 8-9% more for our domestic fuel. While most people remain worse off than they were in 2010, I don’t think the economy is a plus for the Tories. It’s also worth noting that the longest period of growth in our economy for at least 200 years (1995-2008) started two years before the landslide of 1997, so that didn’t help the Tories.
 
In my opinion, the threat to Labour comes from either a renewal of jingoism (which saved Thatcher from oblivion in 1982-3) if Cameron manages to get us involved in a ‘popular’ war, or even greater depths of depravity from Lynton Crosby and his dirty tricks department.

witchfinder wrote:The most important point to make is that allthough the Tories are in government, they will be starting from a weak position with no majority and no opinion poll has had them ahead for over 3 years.

There are some uncertainties with the 2015 election that are going to make it interesting, not least the threat from UKIP and the current all time low of the Liberal Democrats, both of which will favour Labour.

My guess is another coalition, but this time it will be a Labour-Lib Dem coalition which unlike the present coalition is much more natural, and as much as some Labour supporters may not like the idea, there may not be any other choice.

You seriously think the Liberals will win enough seats to be worth bothering with? Why?

witchfinder wrote:My guess is another coalition, but this time it will be a Labour-Lib Dem coalition which unlike the present coalition is much more natural, and as much as some Labour supporters may not like the idea, there may not be any other choice.

 
If this comes into being WF, there will need to be certain restrictions put on the Fib-Dems I would suggest you read Andrew Adonis book "Five Days in May" you should be able to pick it up from your libarary if they have not shut it down due to the cuts.   If not let me know and I will send you my copy it is a eye opening read.  

"The improving economy doesn’t exist for most people."
A simple statement of literal fact, but the chattering classes, who are politically active, ARE seeing their income keeping pace with inflation for the first time in four years. The "feel-good factor" will obviously have an influence if it is sustained until May 2015.

5 Days in May by Andrew Adonis available in WH Smiths £9.09

5 Days in May by Andrew Adonis

Would someone like to write a review of it for us?  

https://cuttingedge2.forumotion.co.uk/f44-book-reviews

witchfinder wrote:Interesting source of information, I have not heard of them before, I have bookmarked them (electoralcalculus).

The UK Polling Report has some basic tools which you can use by feeding in voting scenarios, based upon their "United Kingdom Polling Report Average, that is of all polls, the current prediction is a Labour majority of 58.

I would say the biggest threat to a Labour majority is an improving economic outlook, and I also believe that the Tories "achilles heel" is the NHS, and I hope that Miliband will either exploit it, or has it lined up as a major issue to focus upon.

Sorry WF if you think things are going to get better for the normal working man before 2015, you must believe in the Tories fairy stories they are putting the minimum wage up in October by 19p of which 6p will go in tax leaving a huge 13p when the food prices have went up by 30% and I do not have to tell you about how much gas and electric have went up. Plus Davy boy has said money is no object for the people who were hit by the floods (I do not believe that either) everything that comes out of the mouth of any Tory is nothing but a BLATANT LIE.

The Tories can not afford to give the honest hard working people of the UK a decent wage but can give those earning £150,000 + a tax break, so I would not worry people of the UK will not be any better off by the time of the general election in May 2015.  

Adonis considered Clegg to be a Tory.

Oh, the irony.

I've got no idea who will win - but if I have anything to do with it, it will be a RESOUNDING Labour victory

oftenwrong wrote:Adonis considered Clegg to be a Tory.

Oh, the irony.

After reading the book in 2011 Lord Adonis got it spot on about Clegg OW, the reason that Clegg did not want to go into coalition with the Labour party was the Allister Darling wanted to do the cuts over two terms of Parliament while Clegg wanted to do it over just the one term, there is one thing that I will never forgive Clegg for and that was they way he used Gordon Brown as a lever to get more out of the Tories.

It did puzzle Lord Adonis as to why Clegg never took on one of the big departments Justice, Home office ect, I think he knew exactly what the Tories where going to do and did not want to get his hands dirty silly Prat but he is in for a shock for the EU elections and the general election in May 2015.  

Labour activists, while pleased with the steps taken toward rail renationalisation, have ultimately been left baffled by the decision of Labour’s leaders to compromise with calls for the complete nationalisation of British railways. After discussions with union leaders and representatives from the grassroots labour movement, the party’s leaders opted for a new law that would see the creation of a new state-ran rail company to compete alongside private firms; intending to increase competition and fix yet another one of Britain’s broken markets.

Ed Miliband’s proposals of market reform offers a refreshing alternative to the laissez-faire consensus, however many will argue that Labour’s policies lack the radicalism needed to end the exploitation of both consumers and employees within an increasingly unequal British economy. Even if state firms are able to compete against their private counterparts, our railways would still be ran with business sense (i.e a constant need to make profit) instead of operating as a public service (i.e for the needs of the taxpayer). Investment in our rail infrastructure will only keep coming if the market conditions are right, and it is therefore impossible to guarantee a sustainable future for a transport service that over 3 million people rely on each day.

renationalisation, rising faresLike the NHS, British Rail was a valued public service that delivered to meet the needs of the public. Since the privatisation of rail, fares have risen almost year on year above the rate of inflation. It is easy to justify why your energy bills might have gone up (the rising cost of fossil fuels), however there are few credible explanations for why fares are outpacing inflation. The failure of the privatised model to deliver cheaper services to the British people has contributed to the rising cost of living and has (for over 3 million people) made the daily commute to work significantly more expensive.

The economic drawbacks of higher fare prices should be reason enough to bring our rails back under state control, yet Labour are still too hesitant to even to talk about abolishing the privatised model. Unfortunately, Ed Miliband is failing to deliver the Thatcherite revolution in reverse that many of his supporters were hoping for; the compromise on rail is just another example of this. Whether this political timidness stems from Miliband himself, or senior Blairites such as Peter Mandelson, remains under question.

Ironically, the same fear of sending Labour back into the electoral pitt of the 1980s is stopping party from making much needed gains before the next general election in 2015. British people, from all walks of life (including Conservatives) support railway renationsaliation – 60% of people in the UK want to see a return to the public model [YouGov poll]. Naturally, the vast majority of Labour supporters would also support renationalisation. Again, nationalised railways have support from both the general public and activists within the labour movement, giving Labour leaders little electoral justification for their decision to compromise with unions over the policy.

Britain wants renationalisation, but will the next government deliver? If that government happens to be Tory, we will only ever see an acceleration of privatisation, however a Labour government can only be guaranteed if the party chooses to embrace the policies chosen by the public.

How the Tories hope we'll behave on election day

(Courtesy of David Schneider, who apologises for the mistake - it should read "brought in higher tuition fees")

IVAN The Labour party leader has a lot more to him than just a leader that looks funny, he is OPEN HONEST and does not promise what he has NO intention of delivering whereas Ed will not promise what he cannot deliver and that is part of the reason why some people have not warmed to ED. I am talking about peoples crying out for re-nationalization of Gas, Electric, and the railways the problem with Ed is he knows the money will NOT be there, but he has to think outside the box because as I have said before "There is more than One Way to Skin the Cat".

I sometimes think Ed Milliband's problem is that he is an intelligent, balanced individual, who wants the best possible outcome for everyone in GB and thinks most other people share his viewpoint.

I think you make a good point boatlady, but Ed would be better to change his tune when it comes to the Tory party and Tory voters because the Tories do not know that the word TRUTH exists.

Then they won't vote for him - we'll just have to hope enough people are convinced on the facts to take a chance on a new government.
The performance of the current incumbents is far from impressive - perhaps people will agree with you and me that we need a Labour government to sort things out

I hope Labour wins.

But I'm mindful of whether or not they really win change things around.

However a Tory win is unthinkable.

I fear we will get another Hung Parliament. Where that leaves the Libdems is unclear; they won't be completely oblitaerated (more's the pity) but i suspect many will cross the floor.

ghost whistler wrote:I hope Labour wins.

I fear we will get another Hung Parliament. Where that leaves the Libdems is unclear; they won't be completely oblitaerated (more's the pity) but i suspect many will cross the floor.

I have been waiting for Fib-Dems to cross the floor for a while GW, I even had a couple of names that looked promising "John Pugh & Andrew George" the rest of the fib-dems were quite content to spout the Tory Mantra it was all Labours Mess we are cleaning up.   There is one fib-dem that will not keep his seat Danny Alexander because his seat is in Inverness Scotland the Scots hold grudges for a long time, that is why the party for Thatchers death went wild here.  

I do not think the fib-dems will have enough MPs to form a coalition even their own voters have left the party to sink or swim, I have heard they have an understanding with the Tories for another coalition in 2015 if they're still around then. 

i dont necessarily mean cross the floor to labour either!

Labour with a majority of 70 or so, while the drivelling tory papers go on and on and on and on about Milliband and believe they are influencing something, the Moon maybe.

The (mostly) right-wing Press does influence those people willing to be influenced, but the election next May will be decided by the "feel-good-factor" next May.

Repeat the medicine until otherwise instructed? I think not.

Penderyn wrote:Labour with a majority of 70 or so, while the drivelling tory papers go on and on and on and on about Milliband and believe they are influencing something, the Moon maybe.

The only thing the right wing media are influencing is turning the people off the Tory party Penderyn, but the Tories where managing that all on there own with the austerity and VILE VICIOUS cuts.

oftenwrong wrote:The (mostly) right-wing Press does influence those people willing to be influenced, but the election next May will be decided by the "feel-good-factor" next May.

Repeat the medicine until otherwise instructed?  I think not.

But the problem there OW its the austerity that is putting people off the Tory party, and they know if the Tories get back into power in 2015 things will get worse with Osborne smuggly telling the UK he will be taking another £25 billion out of the public services and we all know the majority of that will come out of Welfare leaving people with only one choice WORKHOUSE.

I was watching the Max Keiser report on the RT channel, his guest has wrote an article in the Spectator if you get the chance have a read of it what it says is OUR money problems are not fixed and is capable of having another 2008 because the banks have not been fixed plus the debt of the UK has risen to £1.25 TRILLION. Which means the Tories have borrowed more in 5 years than Labour did in 13 years in office this helps me because when I get out there I will have some home truths for the voting public.  

Not sure if I believe Max Keiser. He is after all chummy with that moron Alex Jones.

He seems to know what he's talking about - ie i have no idea what he's talking about, not being an economist

Whether the system will collapse again...I guess it's built that way, but these major upsets seem to happen once a century. That said, I'm opposed to capitalism. We need a change nonetheless. I can't see that happening under Labour, but the fact remains we must vote Labour to vote out this wretched government. The alternative - they get back in - is just unthinkable.

Can't argue with your conclusion that we have to vote Labour in next time.

I sort of hope that Milliband, once he is PM may surprise us all by being a bit more radical than he is currently presenting as.

In the run-up to an election I guess his priority will be to not scare the horses - with a 5-year tenure under his belt he may be a bit freer to act.

Ghost Whisper & Boatlady  I would trust Ed Miliband with my life, but do not think we have got to vote Labour GW but if you want a FAIR gov't for all and not just the chosen few then Labour is the party the one to vote for.   Your spot on boatlady Ed does not want to spook the horses because he must appeal to the majority of the UK voting public as he needs a majority gov't so he can  REPEAL all the nasty bill the Tories and there Lapdogs (Fib-Dems) put these bills into law.

I do not wish to depress you both but since I know you both have access to the internet look up this on U-Tube its by Allyson Pollock, its well worth watching but by the time it finishes you could be using swear words you never knew that you knew, I watched it today on Twitter believe me if I could of got my hands on either Cameron Landsley or Chunt I would not have been responsible for my actions.

Can you post a link, red?

If Cameron senses that he is in any danger of defeat in May 2015, I can visualise that some dirty dealings will be organised with Farage to maximise the anti-Labour drive .

Neither of them have any integrity and both are really of the same political persuasion when it comes down to it...

boatlady wrote:Can you post a link, red?

I am unable to give you a link boatlady someone had taken it off U-Tube and put it straight onto twitter, if you go to U-Tube then type in Allyson Pollock it should come up for you.

Alternatively begin here:

http://www.allysonpollock.com/

or

A film-clip is at https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/nhs-sos