Who does Gideon Osborne think he is kidding?

First topic message reminder :

This Tory-dominated government claims there is no alternative to austerity. Below, nine leading economists, including a Nobel Prizewinner and one of the Chancellor's own advisers, say that's wrong - and offer a different path:-

Cut VAT back to 17.5%
Christopher Pissarides
Agree financial transaction tax
Jeffrey Sachs
Reduce NI contributions
David Blanchflower
Print money for the public
Sushil Wadhwani
Start a national investment bank
Robert Skidelsky
Lift the cap on immigration
Jonathan Portes
Lend directly to small businesses
George Magnus
Launch a green new deal
Ann Pettifor
Set up a recovery fund
Christopher Allsopp

For the details of each of those suggestions, click on the links on this page:-
http://www.newstatesman.com/economy/2011/10/alternative-coalition

Inflation dropping, unemployment dropping, employment by the private sector, both full and part-time rising.

Like most I'm sceptical about the end results, yet given that we have a weak coalition, somehow we are heading in the right direction.

Mustn't forget I'm getting more euro's per £ together in time for my holiday in Skiathos, roll on September!!

unemployment dropping,

Where?

North East jobless is UP by 8,000!

More to be added when the Michelle Bearings-Vickers reundant are added. Then add to that the jobless caused by the Alcan Smelter closure at Lynemouth.

Fun, wot fun.

It's summer time aint it? Isn't that when all the hotels etc start to employ part time workers.

You're correct astra when you say "WHERE" Where indeed.

By the way, who's "following" who around the boards?

astra wrote:

unemployment dropping,

Where?

North East jobless is UP by 8,000!

More to be added when the Michelle Bearings-Vickers reundant are added. Then add to that the jobless caused by the Alcan Smelter closure at Lynemouth.

Fun, wot fun.

astra

I find that little more than economic vandalism of the UK economy. but then Tories in the South East of England have never cared about either the UK economy or the North East of England.

I really despair at successive governments of this country Stox. I watched from Scotland till 1980 then from Sunderland/Newcastle till now and it seems that the population here is to be treated like turkeys for slaughter. Feed them JUST ENOUGH then forget them till THE BIG DAY (when an erection looms) then forget them again
http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/story/2012-06-20/jobless-figures-rise-in-the-north-east/

The little caption in the link says it all. NOW, If that were Sussex or Essex losing those jobs, all hell would break loose! I cannot wait till after the olympics when the now falsley exadgerated figures have to be disclosed. I wonder what double entry book keeping or other scam is going to be employed to massage those figures.

What can you mean? The government says it hasn't spent all the money that was earmarked for the Olympics.

There's about half a million still available for entertaining foreign dignitaries.

There's about half a million still available for entertaining foreign dignitaries.

£500million shortfall going to Petrol Tax/Duty/thingey?

astra wrote:Feed them JUST ENOUGH then forget them till THE BIG DAY (when an erection looms)

I'm kinda hoping that was a typo

Betty, look for the intresting things in life!

It's the only time in life they get a hard - (Whoops nearly)


Half the devils in parliament are so inbred that speach impediments abound

Who can forget the "Yeffey-yendum Patty?

astra wrote:I really despair at successive governments of this country Stox. I watched from Scotland till 1980 then from Sunderland/Newcastle till now and it seems that the population here is to be treated like turkeys for slaughter. Feed them JUST ENOUGH then forget them till THE BIG DAY (when an erection looms) then forget them again
http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/story/2012-06-20/jobless-figures-rise-in-the-north-east/

The little caption in the link says it all. NOW, If that were Sussex or Essex losing those jobs, all hell would break loose! I cannot wait till after the olympics when the now falsley exadgerated figures have to be disclosed. I wonder what double entry book keeping or other scam is going to be employed to massage those figures.

Hi Astra

I also find the way the south and south-east has always been looked after by the Tory party drivers me too despair astra. If Essex, Sussex, Surrey had unemployment or job loss like the North East or North west has had over most of the Tory parties time in office. they would go mad and it would end up with questions in the house. i remember the 1980s, as i lived for a bit in the south east. it was not too bad but when I was sent to the north east and north west it was a different world astra. its like living in two countries at that time.

The smart money seems to be on a change of occupation for Gideon when Parliament returns from its summer break.

Who's gettin' his job????


Danny Alexander??

Bald chap, been there since he was 16, shares hotel rooms with his PA "to save money". Tried being Party Leader but failed. You know wossisname.

Named with a cheap bottle of "blended" Scotch perhaps?

He had hair at 16.

Hitler had Hitler's youth, Thatcher had him.

Another of MSN's polls, just for fun ....

Which cabinet minister would you most like David Cameron to sack in his summer reshuffle?

9 % said Vince Cable, the business secretary 53 votes

11 % chose Ken Clarke, the justice secretary 60 votes

7 % thought Michael Gove, the education secretary 39 votes

3 % remembered about William Hague, the foreign secretary 16 votes

7 % realised that Jeremy *unt had failed in all three of his jobs as Minister for Culture, Media and Sport. 38 votes

7 % recognised the name Andrew Lansley, the health secretary 40 votes

29 % let Gideon off the hook by choosing Theresa May, the home secretary.
166 votes

27 % for some reason selected George Osborne, the chancellor. 149 votes




http://uk.msn.com/?ocid=getmsn&ar=1

George Osborne's mother and father, Sir Peter Osborne and Lady Felicity, top left, have bought a new £10 million house in West London, but they have done it without selling their own £15million luxury home just a few doors down and its large lounge middle. The downsizing couple will not move into their new home yet, as the former owner has been told he can stay there until next year while they wait for the housing market to improve.
Extact from Daily Mail.

Ahhhh yes, "we are all init together" Aint we??

Meantime, with most Ministers on a well-deserved Summer Break, the man running Britain is ..........

(roll of drums .............)

is ............................. Don't be vague.

What a relief. Most people thought it would be Boris.

In June 2010 Mr George Gideon Oliver Osborne MP stood at the despach box in the House of Commons and said that "we will turn the deficit into a surplus in 5 years".

The plan - experiment - call it would you want, has gone drasticly wrong, a strong Primeminister leading a strong government would have sacked him by now, but of course we have a wishy washy, weak and ineffective coalition, the unholy alliance.

Even the excuses have dried up, the favorite was always that it was Labours fault, but of course that lie has well and truly been put to bed, then it was the fault of the Eurozone, HELLO! - have you seen Germanys growth figures. ?

This is a chancellor who has run out of lies, run out of excuses, its time to go, but please take the rest of the mob with you.

have you seen Germanys growth figures. ?

Witchy....have you thought about the reasons why Germany has growth (0.3%) and the rest of the eurozone does not?

German economic success is built on exports. Manufacturing and low unemployment, something we had until the Witch came and said it was all non viable and de-regulated the financial sector to compensate for the loss.
Hence we have the problem existing today of an insufficient manufacturing base.
In addition German manufactured goods are and have always been superior and of high quality. However, the Euro may bring them tumbling down in the end.

The tories in government always appear to conduct sociological experiments on the UK population based upon their cruel ideologies....Thatcher destroyed unions and workers rights, sold off council housing, etc - the present bunch are withdrawing state support for those struggling to get work or make ends meet on paltry wages, they simultaneously make their own kind richer and ever more powerful. They treat the general british public like lab rats.

Britain was a terrible manufacturer, poor quality and poor productivity caused by strong unions and weak management. Thatchers mistake was not in her diagnosis but in her treatment, but she had Scottish Oil to pay for her mistakes.

I'm old enough to remember Thatcher saying in 1978 that "what Britain needs is more inequality". Well that diagnosis was just callous rubbish. Unequal societies are the most violent, and sure enough, crime in the UK doubled during those eighteen Tory years from 1979 to 1997.

If you really want to understand what Thatcher was about, with her dedication to the policies of Milton Friedman (first implemented by her fascist friend Pinochet after he assassinated a democratically-elected president in Chile in 1973), try reading 'The Shock Doctrine' by Naomi Klein:-
https://cuttingedge2.forumotion.co.uk/t601-the-shock-doctrine-by-naomi-klein

President Allende was almost certainly overthrown in Chile by agents of the CIA. The idea of a Marxist President was anathema to America in the same way as a negro President of the USA is still today for the Right Wing. 20th. C. history of Central and South America is riddled with stories of CIA meddling in internal affairs.

Curiously, Thatcher's friendship with General Pinochet (pronounced Pee-no-chett because they speak Spanish, not French there) arose from his agreement to abstain from the Falklands conflict in 1982.

War can create strange bedfellows.

I'm sure that devious and despicable headcase known as Richard Nixon was very keen to eliminate a Marxist government in Chile and did his best to destablise it through the CIA, but surely it was Pinochet's forces who staged the coup and bombed the presidential palace?

Yes, Pinochet kept out of the Falklands conflict (or did he allow British planes to use Chilean bases?), but he and Thatcher were ideological bedfellows as disciples of Milton Friedman.

What is described above as "Scottish Oil" is what enabled the Thatcher government to stifle unrest in the areas laid waste by her policies, with generous Regional Grants and unlimited dole.

Oh, the irony!

Unemployment rate Falls but so does UK Exports

Woodrow Wilson was asked what his views where on Conservatism? He said ’’ Conservatism is the policy of making No change and consult your grandmother when in doubt’’ Now.. he said this without him even knowing Gideon, However, this currant Tory party Economic circular policy is like some sort of 1980s right wing restoration project while having No economic management to run it.

So what is going on now or Not? Well in April 2O12 the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested the economy failed to achieve any growth in the first three months of the year, when the trade deficit on goods and services rose to £3.4bn in February from £2.5bn – far worse than forecasts of an improvement to £2bn. With more Concerns about Britain's economic prospects while showing the scale of weakness in UK exports to non-European markets, which are widely considered the UK's best hope for growth. In fact the ONS data has shown the UK Exports of goods to non-EU countries fell by 8.8% up till April 2012.



So was anyone really surprised when the governor of the Bank of England, Sir Mervyn King slashed their UK growth forecast for 2012 from 0.8% to 0% for the rest this year? Well as it happens yes… Gideon was surprised by this downgrade of the UK growth forecast for the 4th time while expressing his unequivocal confidence in his own economic policy while blaming and denouncing the nasty Europeans for all his economic woes while he fails to explain why UK Exports of goods to non-EU countries fell by 8.8% up till April 2012? Still its easy to over look little things like this when you are spending so much time holding fund raising dinners for the national Tory party election fund.

Still never mind as UK inflation is under control?…. Well it was if you believed the right wing or this government, till that nasty ONS pops up showing the retail price index (RPI) that measures inflation was 3.2% in the year to July. While inflation of 2.6% in July still outpacing pay rises with ONS figures showing that total pay rose by 1.6% in the three months to June from a year earlier. Regular pay, excluding bonuses, was up 1.8%. All of this is just the benchmark rate used to calculate the rise in train fairs in January 2013 for one and other economic rates for next year. Still as we all know by now Cameron and Gideon are always willing to share our economic pain. So they rush out the following statement. ’’ This Government would press ahead with our above inflation increases in rail passengers fares’’ as Ministers have told train companies to raise prices by 3% points above the RPI next January and by the same in January 2014 and by 1% above RPI in 2015. With the Operators raising fares by a further 5% point on the same rotes as long as the increase is offset by cuts.

Still I should think that even the right wingers who seems to only have a small rudimentary knowledge of Economic matters should spot this has nothing to do with the state of the Euro? As any rational calculation should draw even a ideological driven right winger to the strategic economic view that this is not a very smart moving given the very fact that there own government economic data show there economy with no GDP growth for 2012, but maybe not. As the economic dominoes will fall where this government economic policy blows them and hiding behind the Euro will just not wash at all. As its not the Euro that is driving up rail fare’s or stacking up new inflation pressures in 2014 by this government is it? Mind you for most right wingers economics or the understanding of it, is a bit like Naponleon reading tit bits. As they both fail to understand what they are reading.

So now comes the news that the number of UK People out of work has fallen to its lowest level in almost a year, with the decline partly due to jobs created by the London Olympics as well as an increase in self- and part-time employment. So is anyone surprised by this ONS data? But just in case I have over looked something lets take a deeper look at these figures today.

Well the internationally recognised International Labour Organisation measures Unemployment shows a fall of 46,000 in the three months to June to 2.56m. while according to the Office for National Statistics, to 8%, the lowest rate since the three months to July 2011 while in London, the number of people out of work fell by 42,000, which would suggested that some of the improvement in the jobs market was due to the Olympic Games. So I its fair to say the capital accounted for half the fall and for half the new jobs created between April and June – 99,000 out of a total of 201,000 across the UK.

So this data shows this rise in employment, to 29.476m, was the biggest quarterly increase since the spring of 2010 and the highest level of employment since 2008. But Given the state of the rest of the UK economy I would not be jumping up and down at all at this point. As this increase in self- and part-time employment is the Key figure in this data as it quite clearly suggests that many UK companies are replacing full time employees with either part time employees or sub-contracting work out that is clearly leading to the increase in self-Employed. So in other words companies have no confidence in the economy while operating a quick removal policy of employees if things get worse.

So we are left with a government economic policy that has failed too of grasped the implications of there own economic actions or decision while stacking up more inflation pressures within the economy in 2013/14, while overseeing a economy with exports falling and productivity effectiveness crashing while still having no economic growth policy of note and government borrowing set to top £158 billion for 2012. However, we so still have Gideon with his exaggerated economic claims with his infectious economic myopia shared by the rest of the Tory party and Lib/Dem’s in government while the UK economy goes around in smaller and smaller economic circles.

Hello Ivan,

Milton Friedman, Reagan, Thatcher and Greenspan were all children of Ayn Rand's philosophy, state altruism is evil.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51pMod2Aaso

On 14 February 2010, 20 prominent economists wrote to the Sunday Times in support of George Osborne's deficit reduction strategy. They said: "... in order to be credible, the government's goal should be to eliminate the structural current budget deficit over the course of a Parliament, and there is a compelling case, all else equal, for the first measures beginning to take effect in the 2010/11 fiscal year." The Chancellor hailed their letter as a "really significant moment in the economic debate".

Two and a half years later, the UK is mired in a double-dip recession and Osborne is set to borrow £11.8bn more than Labour planned. For this week's issue of the New Statesman, we asked the 20 whether they regretted signing the letter and what they would do to stimulate growth. Of those who replied, only one, Albert Marcet of Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, was willing to repeat his endorsement of Osborne. Nine urged the Chancellor to abandon his opposition to fiscal stimulus and to promote growth through tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending, while others merely said "no comment" or were "on holiday".

With the UK able to borrow at the lowest interest rates for 300 years (largely owing to its non-membership of the euro and its independent monetary policy), the signatories are both surprised and dismayed at Osborne’s failure to invest for growth. Since he entered the Treasury, the Chancellor has cut investment spending by £24.4bn, a net reduction of 48 per cent.

In part article by George Eaton-- New Statesman

But does Cameron have the guts to sack the little shit. Sorry! sorry! little non-performing investment?

Nein Die Ratte wird nicht entlassen die Ratte

Mel wrote:Nein Die Ratte wird nicht entlassen die Ratte

Mel is not only dyslexic with his reading he is dyslexic with his writing too, i can't make head or tails of that, unless it is me that's dyslexic.

For your benefit only jacko.

No, the rat would not sack the rat.

This whole question of Tory Government borrowing is now so serious it must have a new topic by itself.


PUBLIC SECTOR NET BORROWING

O What a great Shock and how total unexpected once again. (Not) its such a great shock and totally unexpected we best take a quick look at the OBR Public sector net borrowing figures…. So that you can just see how unexpected all the governments borrowing is for yourself.

Public Sector Net Debt excluding financial interventions £995.0 billion (February 2012)
Public Sector Net Debt excluding financial interventions £877.3 billion at the end of February 2011
Public Sector Net Debt excluding financial interventions £144.4 billion at the end of June 2012
Public Sector Net Borrowing March 2011 £16 Billion (OBR)
Public Sector Net Borrowing March 2012 £ 18.02 Billion (OBR)
Public Sector Net Borrowing in May 2011 £15.9 Billion (OBR)
Public Sector Net Borrowing in May 2012 17.9 Billion (OBR)
Public Sector Net Borrowing is up from July 2011 to July 2012 by £0.6 billion (OBR)
Public Sector Net Borrowing from April to July is £3.5Billion higher than 2011 (OBR)
Public Sector Net Borrowing from April to July 2012 £45 Billion (OBR)
Public Sector Net Borrowing is £9 billion more than from July 2011 to July 2012 (OBR)

So What was said in July 2011?
I stated that public sector borrowing would rise due to a sharp slow down in tax revenues while exports will slow over the next year. As the truth is the government is having to borrow to fund unemployment payments and public services. As the UK Economy had in fact shrank by 6.3% in July 2011 and this can only intensify public sector borrowing over the next 12 months .

So what was said in May 2012?

When Tory Government Public sector net borrowing, excluding financial interventions, such as bank bailouts, was £17.9 billion in May, up from £15.2 billion the previous year.

Vicky Redwood, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said borrowing is on course to overshoot "significantly" the official full-year forecast of £120 billion.
She said:
The main problem remains a sharp slowdown in tax receipts. And with the economy probably still in recession, receipts are likely to remain weak.
The combination of worsening public finances and renewed recession is likely to intensify calls for the Government to change tack on its austerity programme.



So what was said in July 2012

Chris Williamson, chief economist at financial data provider Markit, said the government's plans had been undermined by a lack of growth.

"First, and most significantly, weaker-than-anticipated growth has led to lower-than-expected tax revenues. Tax revenues rose just 3.6% on a year ago in June, and are up just 2.5% so far this tax year," he said. "There seems little scope for revenue growth to pick up soon, given the fall in [industry surveys] to an eight-month low in June. The government's deficit reduction target was based on a projection of economic growth of 0.8% this year, but most forecasters now expect GDP to rise by less than half of the official forecast."

While rising unemployment has driven up spending on benefits, earlier this month the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank said Treasury figures showed government departments had spent £6.7bn less in the 2011/2012 fiscal year than planned under the austerity budget. (Guardian 20/8/2012)

So here you have all the proof you will ever need to tell you that you cannot cut your economy out of debt. As government spent some £6.7 Billion less while the Government borrows more and more as they have cut off all UK growth. As UK’s total public sector net debt, excluding financial sector interventions, has risen by £1.04tn or if you like a record 66.1% of GDP in June 2012. Which Including the cost of bank support, it now represents 144.5% of GDP.

Well as I have said many times you can Cut the UK economy to bits and cut it even more than this banal government is doing and the net result will be at National debt that will rise and not fall as you borrow more and more to make up for your lack of GDP with rising unemployment costs and public sector costs. As the economic fact of life is that with out a GDP rate of at least 2.5% you cannot pay your way or clear your National Debt. But then this is not the Tory parties plan is it? As they are more interested in ideological right wing economic programme they first started in the 1980s.

SO ARE THESE PUBLIC SECTOR BORROWING FIGURE THAT UNEXPECTED TO YOU? ARE YOU REALLY THAT SHOCKED BY THEM AS THEY MEDIA ARE TELLING YOU?

I think not at all. As this is Tory economics are its very best. That will cost your children and mine years of debt to come. With thanks to the Tory party policies that first started in the 1980s and are still going on in 2012.

IN MY VIEW THAT IS NOW SO SEROUS THAT WE SHOULD DEBT IF THE TIME HAS COME TO BORROW TO INVEST? I BELIEVE THE RIGHT WING ARGUMENT THAT BORROWING ONLY MAKES THE NATIONAL DEBT WORSE IS UTTER RUBBISH. AS THEY ARE ONLY BORROWING TO FUND GOVERNMENT TODAY WHILE ADDING TO THE NATIONAL DEBT..... OVER TO YOU

Mel wrote:On 14 February 2010, 20 prominent economists wrote to the Sunday Times in support of George Osborne's deficit reduction strategy. They said: "... in order to be credible, the government's goal should be to eliminate the structural current budget deficit over the course of a Parliament, and there is a compelling case, all else equal, for the first measures beginning to take effect in the 2010/11 fiscal year." The Chancellor hailed their letter as a "really significant moment in the economic debate".

Two and a half years later, the UK is mired in a double-dip recession and Osborne is set to borrow £11.8bn more than Labour planned. For this week's issue of the New Statesman, we asked the 20 whether they regretted signing the letter and what they would do to stimulate growth. Of those who replied, only one, Albert Marcet of Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, was willing to repeat his endorsement of Osborne. Nine urged the Chancellor to abandon his opposition to fiscal stimulus and to promote growth through tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending, while others merely said "no comment" or were "on holiday".

With the UK able to borrow at the lowest interest rates for 300 years (largely owing to its non-membership of the euro and its independent monetary policy), the signatories are both surprised and dismayed at Osborne’s failure to invest for growth. Since he entered the Treasury, the Chancellor has cut investment spending by £24.4bn, a net reduction of 48 per cent.

In part article by George Eaton-- New Statesman

Hi Mel
A top draw post my good friend and spot on with what you have posted too.

I could not agree more with George Eaton of the New Statesman as he has been 100% right all along in my own view

Well how totally crass, as Gideon has just said full steam ahead. so we are going to carry on running a

NO GDP AND NET PUBLIC SECTOR BORROWING ECONOMIC POLICY.

O Boy this must be a first even for this banal Government. How much public Sector net borrowing we going to do? What right wing distorted ideological reasoning are they now going to blame?

We have already done £375 billion QE....Net Economic benefit to the UK is....Zero

We have cut GDP Growth every mouth from 2010... Net Economic benefit to the UK is.... Zero

We have done some £158 Net Public sector borrowing... Net Economic benefit to the UK is..... Zero

We even borrowed some £9 billion more on top of our borrowing...Net Economic Benefit to the UK is..... Zero

We have cut some 450,000 public sector job... Net Economic benefit to the UK is..... Zero

We have lost some 5th of our world exports since 2010....Net Economic Benefit to the UK....Zero

We have 2.5 million Unemployed within the UK....Net Economic Benefit to the UK is......Zero

But does Gideon think its time to change? Like Hell he does... He believes we need deep cut that will just lead to Deep public sector net borrowing.

Gideon is between a rock and a hard place. Any modification of his deficit-reduction policy so painfully defended over the past two years would now precipitate a rapid end to his time-in-post. But without drastic modification it plainly can't succeed.

Couldn't happen to a nicer chap, could it?

Cameron and Gideon have become immune to criticism and puposly oblivious to ANY criticism laid against them and there has been much.

They lose no sleep whatsoever as they keep pushing pushing their measures through mostly without hindrance. They care only at reversing every Labour policy in sight. They are doing what they like and getting away with it. They will lose the next election, they know it and they knew it from the start. The whole idea of getting into power was to transfer wealth from bottom and middle to top, where their many friends sit nicely.

What do they care about growth? The only growth they are interested in is wealth created for the rich at the expense of the majority. Leave Labour with a NOW Tory made worse deficit and scorched earth policy.

I'm sad to say, the British will put up with too much until it's too late.

oftenwrong wrote:Gideon is between a rock and a hard place. Any modification of his deficit-reduction policy so painfully defended over the past two years would now precipitate a rapid end to his time-in-post. But without drastic modification it plainly can't succeed.

Couldn't happen to a nicer chap, could it?

I Cannot agree more with you OW it could not happen to a nicer chap at all.