Who is right about the British economy?

First topic message reminder :

As Lloyd Grossman would say "lets look at the evidence"

26th January 2010 - this was the date that the UK recession was finaly over, our growth returned back into the black again at 0.1% later revised upwards to 0.4%.

This was also a news story back in January 2010
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The begining of 2010 has seen some improvement in the uk housing market. People's confidence seems to have returned to pre uk recession levels.(Zoopla.co.uk)

In the second quarter of 2010 the economy of the United Kingdom was growing at 1.2%, the fastest rate of growth for nine years.

By July the new coalition government had been in power for a couple of months, the chancellor gave his first budget and the nation was put on alert for the waves of spending cuts and redundancies which were to follow soon.

Towards the end of 2010 UK growth began to go backwards again, and actualy went back into negative growth in the 4th quarter, perilously close to recession again.

So here we are in October 2011, 19 months after this government entered office and our growth figures are lower than what they were when they came to office in May 2010.

But not only is growth stagnant, unemployment is higher, inflation is higher, confidence is lower, no sign of a recovery in the housing market, and the promise that the private sector can take up the slack of the thousands made redundant hasent happened.

As we approach the 18 month mark, is time begining to run out for David Cameron and George Osborne. ?

I have read the first few lines .
Don't be childish , Mel , if you want anything approaching a sensible chat .

You are like someone desperately arguing the Palestinian cause--- dragging up History ad hoc and being constantly selective .
Just take responsibly for the catastrophe Labour inflicted on its electorate .
The names of Brown, Miliband and Balls are a stain on our heritage . As representatives they let the country down .
They were negligent , arrogant and failures .

Balls certainly rings a bell, maybe it is what you talk a lot of patacake.

"I have read the first few lines ."

That is the sort of statement I would expect from someone who has without doubt sadly lost the argument.

No point in trying to debate with a person who is of the opinion he knows everything and yet sadly knows very little. My time is worth more than attempting to educate you in these matters sir.

I bid you good day.

Mel , you are a bit of a silly billy .
There was no argument .
You simply failed to rightly guess what paper I may or may not read , and you then pretended that the sins of Labour's thirteen years rule do not exist .
I appreciate that Left wing fanatics are other worldly but then most fanatics only shine when surrounded by equally extreme comrades . This Forum simply confirms that useful assertion .

patakace wrote:-
Labour could not add and subtract and went on a spending spree almost unparalleled outside of a world war situation .

UK Debt as a % of GDP: 1997 – 41.93%, 2008 - 36.61%. Which part of that can’t you understand? Your breathtaking arrogance and rudeness fail to hide what is either your ignorance or your willful determination to misinform.

http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1990_2015UKp_14c1li011mcn_G0t

Eleven years of brilliant economic management, the longest period of uninterrupted growth in the economy for about 200 years. Meanwhile, the roof was fixed – the school roof and the hospital roof, following years of neglect by the corrupt Tories, who hate all public assets and can’t wait to flog them off to their cronies and party donors.

It was the British and western govt's in general  that produced the mess . Certainly not the Tories because they had not been in power for a decade .

Well weren’t they lucky? And weren’t we? Do tell us what the Tories would have done differently, when they were promising to match Labour’s spending for pound for pound. Oh, they thought there was too much regulation of the banks – less would have been a great help, no doubt. Have a look at these utterances which demonstrate how clueless the Tories were in October 2008:-

“We will rein in government borrowing.” (David Cameron, speech to Conservative Party conference, 1 October 2008)

“Borrowing goes up. That is inevitable and you have to allow that to happen. Those automatic stabilisers as Keynes called them, those have to operate.” (David Cameron, Today Programme, Radio 4, 20 October 2008)

“No sensible set of fiscal rules would suggest reducing borrowing at this point of the cycle.” (Philip Hammond, shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, Hansard, 7 October 2008)

“Increasing borrowing is not a strategy for dealing with the recession.” (Philip Hammond, BBC News, 27 October 2008)

Then in the same interview: “To increase borrowing to deal with an economic downturn - that’s a perfectly sensible thing to do.” (Philip Hammond, BBC News, 27 October 2008)

"I take the view, as someone who hopes to be the next chancellor, that you shouldn’t speculate on interest rate decisions… and leave that to an independent central bank.” (George Osborne, Today Programme, Radio 4, 8 October 2008)

“…with interest rates still at 4.5%, there is plenty of scope to stimulate demand with lower rates.” (George Osborne, 'Daily Telegraph', 29 October 2008)

As Alastair Campbell quotes, those 'experts on the planet' known as the LSE Growth Commission make clear that “the crash was an international phenomenon which cannot be blamed on Labour policies, and that Labour did not leave Britain more vulnerable once the crash occurred”. And that explains why debt as a % of GDP rose to 52.08% by 2010 - because the banks had to be bailed out.

I did wonder if you’d fall into the trap of launching an ad hominem attack on Campbell. (I shouldn’t worry too much about his past addictions, when we currently have a crackhead in charge of the nation’s finances.) If you paid attention, you’d have seen that in my previous post I was repeating what the LSE Growth Commission, not Campbell, had concluded. But don’t let the truth get in the way of your desperation to smear with blatant lies the best government we’ve had since the late 1940s.

Only a Tory fanatic in denial will be able to try to counter what you have written in absolute truth Ivan.

Oh so very true Ivan and Mel, the tory fanatic being like an irritating
fly you want to swat with a newspaper.

[quote="Ivan"]

But don’t let the truth get in the way of your desperation to smear with blatant lies the best government we’ve had since the late 1940s.

My initial reaction was to push this onto the social networks as the barmiest tweet seen since the deranged Brown sold the Gold Reserves and said ," All that shines is actually  me ".
That was a  few years before  anyone could  prevent him  from saying that he had saved the world  -- a natural mistake to confuse " saved " and "ruined"  , if you are a narcissist  and control freak . Our very own Perez Hilton it seems with the benefit of hindsight .
But I am in a good mood today so will  regularly remind myself of my profit from precious metal trading since last Thursday . I can now  book the year's three major holidays for free and swap one of the cars for  a new Jaguar ( may be ) thanks to the cuckoo clock people .And as  I predicted it here .
Can't wait for May and getting stuck into another five years of boom without Gordon's busts . It's such an entertaining prospect because even though Ed is Labour's greatest handicap , they dare not sack him .
So imagine him having to show his face at PMQ as Opposition leader again  .  The  "real"  Goofy plus a lisp .

"Profit" is the operative word here. Tory profit a the expense of those who have not.
I see you are still delving into the past, that you condemned me for. Oh well, this is to be expected.
Your chest puffing along with your God Gideon about halving the deficit------

“Lib! Fury over Tory poster claim that party has ‘halved the deficit’” says the Daily Mail. Its deputy editor, Tony Gallagher, has warned HM Treasury that this is how his newspaper will treat spin – from any party…



“Tories accused of lying in campaign poster that claims deficit has halved” says the Independent.

“David Cameron is to put the Union Jack and questionable claims about the deficit at the heart of the Tory election campaign” says The Times

“Cameron launches election campaign with controversial deficit claim” says the Guardian, again focusing on the dodgy nature of ‘halving’ claim.

And here’s the FT‘s intro…

“David Cameron and George Osborne have launched the Conservative general election campaign with a contentious claim that they have succeeded in halving the deficit…”
The FT knows a thing or two about using clear language for readers interested in finance, but not economists. As regular readers know, when it writes about ‘the deficit’ it refers to cash, rather than a GDP ratio. If it refers to a GDP ratio, it says so.

"cuckoo" is about right with bragging rights

Can't imagine you have a clue about SCB action and it's global implications re currency wars .
When the ECB pronounces on Thursday ( as is expected ) , the markets will be.depresed and the Cuckoo boys will be hailed as the first country to have made  a statement about the EU carnage that they see just around the corner
We  assume  that there will be QE via proxy  ---  and believe it  is  as sure as the sun will rise .  Then , " Well done the EU . Both gutless and deceitful Brussels stupidity simultaneously " .
Moral ?
Always count your eggs if Cuckoos are seen flying around . Ignore the Cuckoos and your eggs will disappear .WW2  should be the clue .
And vote Labour and you never will have a single egg , unless Gordon stole a few .
So , no Easter in Lefty  World  , I guess .

Now where is that irritating Tory fly I have to swat with this newspaper?

It seems to me, on this forum, there is a certain consensus of opinion on a number of issues - we may be right, we may be wrong, but by and large we mostly are in pretty broad agreement on many political questions.

Some of us think Tony Blair was a good thing., some of us think Ed Miliband is a weak leader.
Whatever we all think, if we want to put forward an opinion or a case that runs against the  broad general consensus, we will usually illustrate our point with a  REFERENCE, or an ILLUSTRATION from daily experience. This is basic courtesy - good manners if you like.

A very good example of the sort of thing I mean  would be Ivan's post at 4-15 today - he refutes patakace's post by reference to a link to a respected data source and a number of direct quotes from speeches.

A very bad example would be patakace's responses at  6-51 and 7-47 today, where he attempts to debunk the comments of both Ivan and Mel using insults, rhetorical questions and rather debatable 'humour'.

Now, I'm a tolerant woman with a generally friendly approach to my fellow humans - but I have to say it's getting a bit boring to be having to read a series of posts that are quite simply trolling - with no meritorious content, no attempt to communicate and as far  as I can see no purpose at all, except to self-stimulate.

I've said it before, patakace - if you want to be taken seriously on here, you need to defend your position by reference to some respectable source material, or you need to be clear that you are posting a personal opinion - and then take whatever flak might come your way from people who don't share your opinion.
Them's the rules of engagement - if you don't like them, I'm sure there are other fora out there that have lower standards of interpersonal behaviour.

A decision to call time on its efforts to keep the euro from trading below 1.20 francs may bring the E CB to agree a government bond-buying program that will reduce the value of euros in circulation.

The markets recon could be worth 1 trillion euros and the SNB will no doubt be ready for the market impact.
All this is likely to boost gold prices, therefore our friend patakace will no doubt be rubbing his hands from his cuckoo nest. Or should that be crows feet?

nice one Mel.

Of course a small chat board like this feels more comfortable without  a" political enemy " when it spends virtually all the time massaging its collective egos and shared cherished opinions .
I don't expect to change the ingrained attitudes and beliefs of Left wing contributors .

However , Boatlady , I suggest you look at all contributions and you will see that most of the frequent contributors indulge in the very practises that you  have decided that only I am  guilty  of . Most of their time .
This  bothers me not one jot but it is a measure of how selective people can be  whether intended or not .
But yes  , I object privately to your one sided bias . I notice you never made the slightest effort to tell one or two misguided souls that I have never  previously used this site at any time or under any other name before I registered here a few days ago .
Why you  then chose to indicate  a  previous credential  from elsewhere  ( user name ) is beyond me . Not good form , mo .

Mel wrote:A decision to call time on its efforts to keep the euro from trading below 1.20 francs may bring the E CB to agree a government bond-buying program that will reduce the value of euros in circulation.

The markets recon could be worth 1 trillion euros and the SNB will no doubt be ready for the market impact.
All this is likely to boost gold prices, therefore our friend patakace will no doubt be rubbing his hands from his cuckoo nest. Or should that be crows feet?  

i told you  all of this already and in much more detail -- giving likely short and long term  reasons .
And yes I started trading precious metals last Thursday .
Gold yes , but Silver much more -- you can use HZU on the Canadian Equities market and obtain high leverage .
Has the market  already discounted tomorrows well anticipated news ?
Gold and Silver continue to rise  right now but the market may pause and retrace from next Monday if there is an announcement tomorrow . I believe it will be  a step that heralds the beginning of the end of the EZ though it may be just designed to get another breather for a year or two . An eventual crash is inevitable .
The Banks are still toxic and Brussels is just trying to sideline bad debt which can no longer be handled .
The situation is horrific but everything will be done possible to deflect people from airing this view .
There was almost a D notice on the SCB news last week end .
I said , Unbelievable , at least one hundred times and could not decide whether the power brokers were being given time to make a  once off killing , or , whether there would be unbridled panic if informed bloggers started to hint at some grave underlying concern .


Just sold all my silver at 18.25 but 5.26 in HZU terms .

HOT NEWS
Gold suddenly fell from 1303 to 1286 but silver news usually lags behind gold moves by up to 5minutes . I sold all my silver .
Is QE postponed ?
Is it just profit taking ?
Regardless I win . Will buy back when the situation is clarified . But 30 000 x ca C$ 2.5 is OK .

patty boy. I wrote that piece because you were so rude with this comment.

"Can't imagine you have a clue about SCB action and it's global implications re currency wars ."

Don't guess about what I know and don't know in future.

I am a profiler and there are many clues showing me what is original and what is not .

Also please do not lie about myself patakace, as when you were a woman it was on another forum from which you were banned was it not? ok mrs black cherry (ex)

stuart torr wrote:Also please do not lie about myself patakace, as when you were a woman it was on another forum from which you were banned was it not? ok mrs black cherry (ex)

You literally talk gibberish .What has my past life got to do with anything here ?
Just see me as your Katie Hopkins and I will be magnanimous toward you , our Perez .

PS Your Punctuation and Grammar need attention . Do you ever post anything of consequence or do you hang around all day waiting for your hero to appear . You flatter me but I don't actually need a hanger on . But whenever I can help you in areas of expertise , feel free to ask by PM .

Well Mrs Black Cherry ( ex ) it is actually MP not PM, that you have to press to get contact is it not?

Can we stop all this personal baiting, please? It's not appropriate

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ahead-vote-opposition-labour-gets-lowest-poll-score-134341830.html#Aing5OD

Comforting to see the Tories cruise into a poll lead today  , Stuart .
Time for a nice large celebration drink of Disaronno .
Three cheers for David and the boys and girls in blue .

PM --- try Private Message  .You are a card .

patakace wrote:-
Comforting to see the Tories cruise into a poll lead today

YouGov/Sun poll tonight – LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 14%, GREENS 8%, LD 6%.

Not to worry, you can't be expected to be right 100% of the time....

But , as usual , I am right .
Why put links when you do not or cannot use them ?
TORIES 2% points AHEAD OF LABOUR on this most recent and respected poll . It is the trends that count !!!!!!!

What a great day yesterday . Even more employed.
Earnings now significantly ahead of inflation .
AND job vacancies at their highest for over a decade --- over 700 000 from memory .
The Labour economy criticisms are in utter disarray .

Labour now have no credible position and the " feel good " factor increases almost by the day.
Some good sunshine in May and the Tories will win most handsomely .

patakace. You can count on one hand the number of times the Tories have been in the lead in the opinion polls during the past three years. Every poll comes with a warning that there could be a margin of error (MOE) of plus or minus 3%. Each poll is rounded to the nearest percentage; for example, 31.6% is called 32%, but 31.4% is called 31%. That means, in addition to a possible MOE, a change of 0.2% can appear as a change of 1%. The only sensible way to try to extrapolate trends from polls is either to use a rolling average (as at UK Polling Report), or a very large monthly sample across all constituencies (as done by Electoral Calculus).

On Tuesday night, the Tories had a rare 2% lead over Labour in your “respected” YouGov poll. By Wednesday night, Labour had a 1% lead with YouGov. You must be really desperate to go into raptures over one poll which isn’t part of any trend. If and when the Tories are in the lead on six or seven successive polls, you may have something to celebrate, but they certainly won’t "win handsomely" with 32-33% of the votes.

P.S. You’re breaking the site owners’ rules when you keep repeating the same fiddled Tory statistics on several threads. Messages must be posted only once:-
https://cuttingedge2.forumotion.co.uk/t18-posting-rules

Your Punctuation and Grammar need attention .

Does that include putting a space before a comma or a full stop?

Glass houses and stones....

Even if a one off poll shows a Tory lead of 2%, this is no where near enough to bring them back into power. You forget patty boy that UKIP,SNP and even a few LIB DEM's come into the equation.
The only reason wages seem to be rising against inflation is because of the fall in oil prices. Those oil prices will bounce back before the election, see then where your false figs are.
This is why Mark Carney BOE has held interest rates as he knows all these Tory propaganda figs are distorted, just as your word "significantly" falls into the very same category.

Cameron is running scared of UKIP and SNP, as he knows they will knock him off his very high perch.

Your Punctuation and Grammar need attention .

Reasons exist for such rude behavior. The phenomenon, is that some element of superiority is involved, Polite, secure people do not correct other people’s grammar. Sometimes unfortunately we are saddled with snooty, self-appointed, and insufferable grammar police. Grammar Bully is the term used in most cases where anger exists.
A Grammar Bully is feeling insecure in some way.

Many thanks Ivan and Mel, for pointing out the posters punctuation and grammar, who was trying to win points by highlighting mine, much appreciated.

I think we have a thread for discussing how we feel about the importance of grammar and punctuation - perhaps a good rule of thumb on other threads might be, if you can understand what the other person is saying, please count idiosyncrasies of spelling and punctuation as just that - idiosyncrasies - grammar Nazis please move to the relevant thread.

Speaking as a bit of a grammar Nazi myself, I'm aware you can really derail a discussion by insisting on picking up other people's mistakes - you could almost call it trolling - and I'm sure no-one on here wants to be a troll

The government has adopted the utterly dishonest practice of excluding from the claimant count all those persons who have been sanctioned.   Thus the abrupt fall in the claimant count is explained by the scam of regarding all sanctioned persons as no longer seeking work, though they clearly are.

What makes this wheeze even more contemptible is that the Office of National Statistics, set up specifically to verify the accuracy of official statistics, is being denied information by DWP about the impact of sanctioning on the unemployment figures.   It seems that the Tories, having under Thatcher concealed the true levels of unemployment by re-classifying hundreds of thousands as ‘disabled’ instead – a classification from which they are now removing them by having Atos re-classify them back again as ‘fit for work’, have now concocted another fraudulent way of reducing the figures to burnish the Osborne recovery-that-never-was.   They have also massaged the headline unemployment rate by basing it on a sample of just 41,000 or 0.16% of the population which is statistically meaningless.   There seems no limit to Tory mendacity, but this one is certainly going to be nailed.

Extract from Michael Meachers article. www.michaelmeacher.info/

Further more, many people are buying items and selling them on ebay. These too are being counted as self employed even though the amount of transactions are minimal.

This government will do anything will they not Mel, just to lower the
unemployment figures, so it looks like the government are succeeding.

Ivan wrote:patakace. You can count on one hand the number of times the Tories have been in the lead in the opinion polls during the past three years. Every poll comes with a warning that there could be a margin of error (MOE) of plus or minus 3%. Each poll is rounded to the nearest percentage; for example, 31.6% is called 32%, but 31.4% is called 31%. That means, in addition to a possible MOE, a change of 0.2% can appear as a change of 1%. The only sensible way to try to extrapolate trends from polls is either to use a rolling average (as at UK Polling Report), or a very large monthly sample across all constituencies (as done by Electoral Calculus).

On Tuesday night, the Tories had a rare 2% lead over Labour in your “respected” YouGov poll. By Wednesday night, Labour had a 1% lead with YouGov. You must be really desperate to go into raptures over one poll which isn’t part of any trend. If and when the Tories are in the lead on six or seven successive polls, you may have something to celebrate, but they certainly won’t "win handsomely" with 32-33% of the votes.

P.S. You’re breaking the site owners’ rules when you keep repeating the same fiddled Tory statistics on several threads. Messages must be posted only once:-
https://cuttingedge2.forumotion.co.uk/t18-posting-rules

History shows that any opposition not well ahead of the sitting government loses on election day .Labour has never been well ahead even during the difficult times .
That is , Labour have never been significantly ahead at any time .
Your fate is well sealed and your goose cooked.
Accept it gracefully .Stop whining and bleating .

stuart torr wrote:Many thanks Ivan and Mel, for pointing out the posters punctuation and grammar, who was trying to win points by highlighting mine, much appreciated.

Come on . You can manage one Post if you try hard enough .
PM me and I can give you several different angles to get you started .

Give it time man. Things can change overnight and even at the eleventh hour. Labour may be holding the trump card,we shall see.

Ivan wrote:

patakace wrote:-
Comforting to see the Tories cruise into a poll lead today

YouGov/Sun poll tonight – LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 14%, GREENS 8%, LD 6%.

Not to worry, you can't be expected to be right 100% of the time....

Another fanatic trying to argue the impossible .
Did the quoted poll show a 2% lead ? Yes or No .
Is inflation 0.5% . Yes or No .
Are average earnings now more than three times this figure ? Yes or No .
What is the record number of Job Vacancies in the last decade ? Is it 700 000 right now ? Yes or No .
Do you actually know one of the now rare breed labelled unemployed ?
( I threw that in so that you would get one right )
And answering , " All members here except Patakace is not honouring the spirit of the exercise .

Patty boy, I was just wondering why you tend to dismiss some of my Posts? Could it be you are being selective, due to your lack of capability to reply when you find difficulty in countering my comments?

Mel wrote:Give it time man. Things can change overnight and even at the eleventh hour. Labour may be holding the trump card,we shall see.

At last . Someone sensible and temperate .
Are you sure you are not a closet Tory ?
At least you are not a Fanatic like the rest .

Replies
Nothing deliberate . I  respond to  so many of the Fanatic's scribbles that often I get tired and bored and like to get back to the real world .
Some of your posts show signs of intelligence so I feel sure I can help you progress from now on .
Most of the others tend to be Perez like in nature and content .

I think I will take an afternoon nap as I was working earlier and must put in two or three hours tonight .
Explain the term "work" to the others .

patty, you did not quote the poll.

Did the quoted poll show a 2% lead ?"

Which poll was it and what was the collective poll figs, 1000, 2000,?
What was the gender mix, the age mix and the ethnic mix?

Polls are not worth the bother, because by the time they are gathered and pesented they become out of date. That goes for all parties before you start huffing and puffing.

Quote- "Nothing deliberate ."

Pull the other one!!!!!!! Excuses excuses pha!!!!

The term "work".  Patty, you have my sincere sympathy as it must be very tiring
taking those few pieces of gold down for cash at the goldsmiths.

When you do finally wake up, do read my Meacher post above, there's a good patty boy.