Is Ed Miliband living on borrowed time?

First topic message reminder :

Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, Others 10%. This is the first time that YouGov have shown a Conservative lead since December 2010. It certainly looks as though the Conservatives have recieved a boost from David Cameron’s veto at the European summit. There is also a new ComRes poll out tonight for the Independent which has topline figures of CON 38%(+1), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 12%(+2) – also showing the two main parties effectively neck-and-neck. How is it that the tories can be level or ahead in the polls when they are having to make some very difficult and painfull decisions to try and bring down the deficit, the umemployment figures are the worst for 17 years. We have had strikes, pension reforms, VAT rises and the veto in Europe etc.......

It looks like Ed Millaband is not liked or trusted by many of the elecorate. In my opinion he looks weak, sounds weak and has no policies to speak of....Everytime he tries to get the better of Cameron in PMQ'S he ends looking like a fool with Cameron destroying him. Ed Balls is no better...he comes across as an odious man with no substance, who would probably stab his own wife in the back if it meant he gained more power.

Labour missed a trick in not voting in Eds brother David into the leadership role. David would have given Cameron a better run for his money and I believe he is a better politician than Ed too. With the two Eds at the helm I believe Labour are not a viable opposition right now and one or both could be dispatched by the party sooner rather than later

Phil Hornby wrote:All well and good.

But he has to get elected, and to do that he somehow, sometime has to be able to convince those 'ugly people' - however unpalatable and shallow that may be.

Not much good being the best Prime Minister who never got to Downing Street...

Prophetic as always Mr Hornby......

And after last weeks events in the north I'm afraid it's the Labour Party that is somewhat unpalatable, having sided with Unionists Ed has fueled Nationalist passions in what would have been traditional labour supporters. SNP membership has grown in remarkable numbers in less than a week to now have the third largest membership in the whole of the UK(62,870), this has been assisted by Tommy Sheridan encouraging all nationalist's to galvanize their support behind the SNP to rid Scotland of all the Unionist Parties.

If the offers that were being promised last week aren't fulfilled it is Labour who will face the backlash, the Tories and Lib Dems have nothing to loss in the situation and actually a lot more to gain.

So while Ed is asking for more time to show the Scottish people what Labour can deliver, the time is now or it will be another 5 years in the political wilderness.

Miliband and Balls...ffs

How to lose an election.

ghost whistler wrote:Miliband and Balls...ffs

How to lose an election.

Miliband and Balls......how to elect a tory majority in 2015

In my opinion it will be a Tory majority in 2015
Tory 41% Lab 34% UKIP14% Lib/Dem 11%.

Yes be afraid be very afraid if I am right, as it will be good-bye NHS,
privatised to the highest bidder probably from abroad too.

The British public will have done it to themselves- and - sorry to say- a majority are sufficiently stupid to do so.

One only has to see the current enthusiasm for Phoney Farage and his UKIP Smoke and Mirrors Show to see that.

I truly despair of the gullibility of so many people...

Exactly Phil, they certainly are falling hook line and sinker for the UKIP are they not?

I keep getting the feeling that I’ve been reading the same messages over and over again on different threads, but maybe that’s just me getting senile.  

I’ve said it umpteen times and I remain convinced that the media is only interested in reporting anything which a Labour politician says or does if it is negative. I think Ed Miliband was right to talk without notes at our conference – what’s clever about reading out a speech which has almost certainly been written by someone else? There was such a fuss because he forgot a couple of paragraphs, but I thought Ed Balls had covered the deficit in his speech? When Cameron forgot something far worse – he left his daughter in a pub – it was reported in the press, but can you imagine the media storm if Ed Miliband had done that?

As I’ve said before, there are Labour stalwarts out meeting people on their doorsteps most weekends, especially in the marginal constituencies (where polling suggests that Labour is doing better than nationally). However, there are some in the party who are frustrated that Labour’s campaign appears to be too low-key. Well, Neil Kinnock was subjected to the same sort of media onslaught which Ed Miliband receives, and then he went berserk in that awful triumphalist Sheffield rally in 1992; that isn’t going to be repeated. There are some who think that Ed is letting the Tories do his work for him – tearing themselves apart over Europe, getting paranoid about UKIP and in the process becoming ever more right-wing. I think it was Napoleon who said “never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”.

I’m not really sure what Ed Miliband’s critics expect him to do. He can hardly storm the BBC and demand more airtime than Nigel Farage. He can’t order our ‘free’ (or is it ‘bought’?) press to print positive stories about him. He isn't sitting on his backside in his Westminster office all day and every day; he does get around the country meeting people, but that isn’t considered newsworthy until he struggles with a bacon sandwich. What I do know is that he is a decent, honourable man (possibly too much so) – in sharp contrast to the duplicitous, serial lying snake who currently occupies 10 Downing Street – and I hope that all those who get to meet him will realise that.

Apart from one post-Tory conference outlier from YouGov, the polls are consistently showing Labour around 36-38% and ahead of the Tories. The lead may not be as great as we would like, partly because we’re now in a four-party system and so the votes are shared more thinly, but the Labour vote seems solid. Most of those who switched from the Lib Dems to Labour after the sell-out coalition was formed aren’t likely to return, especially as many of them had previously been Labour voters. Polling also suggests that Labour supporters are the most determined to vote next May.

Although the Tories were unable to win outright in 2010, Labour lost and lost badly – 29% was the party’s second worst share in almost a hundred years. Usually when Labour goes into opposition there are splits and, with the exception of 1970-74, the party is out of office for a long while. Ed Miliband must deserve some credit for the fact that Labour is far more united than the Tories and is the bookies’ favourite to win in May next year.

I was heartened to hear from a man I spoke to on Tuesday that he's voting Labour for the first time in his life next May. He is sick of the Tories, thinks they’re dangerous and recognises that either Cameron or Ed Miliband will be in Downing Street after the election. Yes, that’s just an anecdote, but I doubt if he is the only person in the country getting scared of the Tories. And now they’re after our human rights….

You are not getting senile Ivan rest assured, just raving bonkers with most of the press being tory run what do you expect my friend?
It is only on honest forums like this one will you find the truth being written 90% of the time.
With the way things are going though Ivan, do you not still think that the UKIP will have the vital decision on who wins power after the election?

QUOTE: "There are some who think that Ed is letting the Tories do his work for him ...."

PROVERB: All things come to he who waits

(A literal meaning, advocating patience.)

We're all stuffed if Tory dogma is allowed to continue for yet a further five years, so it must be all hands to the pumps, shoulders to the wheel and noses to the grindstone in order to support the only credible alternative, which is the Labour Party.

Anyone denying the Labour Party that support solely on their perceived character of its leader will have only themselves to blame if the outcome of next May's general election is five years more of the same.

Precisely OW.
I will be voting for no-one else but Labour, because I might as well
take all my tablets if they lose and the bloody tories get in.
They are after myself next for a medical over my disability benefit, or work?

QUOTE: "There are some who think that Ed is letting the Tories do his work for him ...."

PROVERB: All things come to he who waits

Profound as you may be, I think you may need to look a bit deeper......

Why is Gideon in so much of a rush to put a proposal on the table for Scotland?

Who has everything to gain and nothing to loss?

Whilst the masses are watching the Punch and Judy show, is something more sinister happening behind the scenes?

The Tories are undoubtedly plotting all sorts of things, but they can evidently no longer rely implicitly upon Lib-Dem support, so do not have enough votes to force their dogma through Parliament.

We are in a phoney war similar to 1939.

(There’s no need to fill in that annoying ‘reason for editing’ box if you are amending the most recent message on a thread.)

stuart torr wrote:-
With the way things are going though Ivan, do you not still think that the UKIP will have the vital decision on who wins power after the election?

No. I think UKIP will end up with fewer than five MPs after the election. Carswell will get elected next week, Farage probably will in Kent next May, and UKIP support is thought to be strong in Boston and Skegness. However, I note that even with an expected 15% of the votes, Electoral Calculus estimates that UKIP will get nowhere under our first-past-the-post system:-

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

UKIP won’t do as well in the general election as they did in the EU elections. In May, people will be voting for a government, and thankfully there’s not a snowflake’s chance in hell that Farage will become PM. UKIP appeals mainly (but not exclusively) to a certain demographic – white, working class men, often of low intelligence, those who feel ‘left behind’ or alienated and who look for someone to scapegoat for their own inadequacies. The Tory tabloids tell them to blame immigrants and UKIP tells them you can’t stop immigration without leaving the EU. The vast majority of people – probably around 70% - detest Farage and UKIP and would never ever consider voting for them, so they are probably close to their ‘ceiling’ in popularity.

I think the SNP poses the biggest threat to a Labour majority. First Alistair Darling and, when panic set in, Gordon Brown, were sent to Scotland to do the Tories’ dirty work and persuade enough Scots to vote No in the referendum. It worked, but it has provoked a backlash from what were Labour supporters who voted Yes. The Electoral Calculus site is predicting that Labour will lose 10 seats to the SNP (and even one to the Tories in Edinburgh):-

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html

Much depends upon the eventual decision upon that so-called "East Lothian question". Can MPs from Scottish constituencies vote upon English matters and vice-versa, not forgetting those from Wales and/or Ulster?

The common-sense arrangement might be to entitle all MPs to vote on all matters.

Arguments against that????

It's actually 'The West Lothian Question' and it was first wrestled with by Gladstone in 1886. However, it was the MP Tam Dalyell who raised the subject again in 1977, when Labour was drawing up plans for devolution in Scotland.

Letting any MP vote on any issue makes good sense. Yvette Cooper argued that on 'Any Questions' recently, saying that very few issues involve England only. As she said, should only Welsh MPs be allowed to vote on Welsh matters? Should northern MPs be barred from voting on London issues? The stupidity could just go on and on.

Blimey couldn't sleep tonight
Some interesting questions posed Ivan and OW?
All English MPs should vote on English matters in my book, as that seems perfect sense.
Or just leave the Irish issues to the Irish, which to myself seems perfect sense all round.
But since when have MPs been sensible.

The more I see of how the political and economic -and, indeed, the international - landscape is developing, I am increasingly drawn to the conclusion that good old Ed will be best served by not winning in May 2015.

The whole shooting match is an unholy mess and Milly's life would be a misery if he were tasked by the nation to keep the show on the road after the next General Election.

Best leave it to the Tories and their associated hangers-on again, while we sensible people can have the luxury of an occasional, snipe from the sidelines as the chaos multiplies...

Are you all off your heads can you not see what the Tories are doing there trying to stop Labour from REPEALING the nasty bills that they have passed over the last 4 years, which would mean all those living in England would have to find money for private health Insurance because Cameron would finish off selling off the NHS.

If the Tories get back into power in 2015 that will give the SNP here in Scotland another excuse to bring up the Indipendence question only this time all of Scotland would vote Yes because of the £25 billion of cuts we all know that it will be the Welfare NHS and other public services were those cuts will fall.

Redflag.
I am very confused as to who is going to get in at the next election.
All I know is I'm voting labour and hoping for the best.

To me, the prospect of the Tories getting another 5 years in government is the ultimate nightmare scenario.

A Labour government, if one gets in, will indeed have a horrible time trying to deal with the wreckage left by this last 5 years of Tory misrule (which may be one reason why the party have been circumspect about criticising or making promises) - but I feel our only hope is for a Labour majority next time - and I hope everyone on this forum who is critical of the Tories will be making themselves as active as they can in pursuit of a better outcome in 2015.

With me 'tis with politics as with sport : I can readily tolerate a lack of ability , but cannot stomach a failure to show any real effort or fight - as the boys' football teams I have coached can testify.

The Labour Party have shown about as much spirit and determination in trumpeting to the public about the spite of the Tories as does an especially sleepy sloth on a warm afternoon after a heavy lunch .

I am contemplating hibernation to avoid having to suffer any more of their complacency...

Wake up in june if you do then Phil.

stuart torr wrote:Redflag.
I am very confused as to who is going to get in at the next election.
All I know is I'm voting labour and hoping for the best.

I am hoping and praying for a Labour gov't on the 8th May 2015 Stuart torr, if we get another Tory/Ukip coalition the UK will be done for.

I will be voting Labour unlike some Labour voters who now think that Farage is the party for the working man/women (how they came to that conclusion beats me)

It would seem that John Prescott agrees with Ed Miliband's detractors on this forum:-

Ed Miliband 'Far Too Timid' And 'Preparing For Coalition

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/10/04/ed-miliband-john-prescott_n_5932600.html

Personally I have never liked John Prescott anyway.

Redflag.
You can say that again, they only lick the tory assholes.

I think John Prescott is just what Ed needs somebody to give him a kick up the butt, you got to admit Stuart we have all on here said he is not giving the Tories the kicking he should be with 8 months to go before the general election. He has got so much to do get his own ratings up with the people of UK and put some distance between Labour and the Tories in the polls, if you think of all the nasty things the Tories have done to the public services NHS sick disabled & vulnerable. After what came out during the Tory conference nothing they said has been costed what the EFF is Ed Balls doing this shoukld not be just left to Ed Miliband to do Labour MPs included.

True Redflag.
The whole of the labour party should be fighting hammer and tong to get those ratings well ahead of the TORIES SHOULD THEY NOT .
It is not just a one man job at all is it?

Your spot on Stuart the entire Labour party needs to gets its finger out and start kicking Tory butt, from now until the general election in 2015. I think the first time I meet one of the HOC Labour MPs they will get the sharp end of my tongue, and told in no uncertain terms to getthe finger out.

Same here Redflag, don't know if I will be able to keep my swear words under control either though.

If it is a Labour MP I will not hold my tongue swear words a plenty, maybe then they will get their finger out when they realise how angry their voters are

"Is Ed Miliband living on borrowed time?"

The question has been partially answered by the 64% of the Manchester electorate who couldn't be arsed to express an opinion either way.

Repeated in a General Election, such apathy guarantees a cobbled-together alliance of unlikely MP bed-fellows from each corner of the political spectrum, with elections every twelve months ever after.

Ed Miliband on a picket line with care workers during their strike last week:-


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0U4FegIEAAk8vm.jpg

Did anyone see this reported in the media? I certainly didn't. This is one more example of the news blackout which leads some people to think, mistakenly, that "he's doing nothing".

Which also leads you to know Ivan that the Tory press run the bleeding show.

Ed Miliband appears to be emulating Michael Foot. If he turns up to the Cenotaph in a green duffle-coat next month we'll know that it's time to seek Australian citizenship.

no thanks OW, I'VE GOT THE TABLETS AND CAN AFFORD THE SCOTCH THANKS.

stuart torr wrote:In my opinion it will be a Tory majority in 2015  
Tory 41% Lab 34% UKIP14% Lib/Dem 11%.

On this Stuart I just hope you have got this one very wrong, if it does happen what will follow is a REVOLUTION by the entire population of the UK, because that will be the only way to get our democracy for the people back, as you know the Tories want to get rid of our ECHRs.  The reason they want rid of our Human Rights so that the people that fund the Tories can pay workers £2.00 per hour so it will not just be the disabled that will be short changed.

Do not worry Redflag, if my prediction is right I will be ready for the revolution, poor against the rich.

stuart. The last time the Tories polled over 36% in a general election was in 1992. I can’t see them getting more than 40% in just over six months, not when most people have been on the receiving end of the biggest fall in living standards since the 1870s, when the government deficit is getting bigger, and when the so-called economic ‘recovery’ is little more than a house-price bubble waiting to burst.

Another problem with your forecast is that the figures for the four parties total 100%!! If you look at some of the opinion polls, they usually add up to around 90-91%, to allow for all the minor parties in Northern Ireland plus the SNP, the Green Party and Plaid Cymru.

Somebody using the name ‘Crossbat11’ posted this at UK Polling Report today:-

“I must admit I do afford myself a little wry smile when I hear these glib assumptions about an impending Tory recovery as if we’re talking about some innately irresistible electoral force suffering a temporary blip in their fortunes. My advice is to read the book of the last four elections and 25 years of politics and don’t bother yourself with too many wishful thinking crystal balls.”

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9033#comments

Just a few months to go until we find out who is right!