Are Cameron and Osborne's days numbered?

First topic message reminder :

We seem to have had a thread about Milliband and time running out for his leadership but now there seem to be more and more knives coming out for Vatman and Dobbing, I'll let you decide who is who?

It now seems more and more of their own side (Tory MP's) are openly speaking out against them........

Latest...

Nadine Dorries: David Cameron And George Osborne Are 'Arrogant Posh Boys'


David Cameron and George Osborne are "arrogant posh boys" who do not understand the lives of ordinary people, according to Tory MP Nadine Dorries.

Speaking on the BBC's Daily Politics programme on Monday, the MP for Mid-Bedfordshire was asked if she thought the prime minister and chancellor were out of touch with voters.

"Unfortunately I think that not are only Cameron and Osborne two posh boys who don't understand the price of milk," she said. "They are too arrogant posh boys who show no remorse, no contrition and no passion to want to understand the lives of others - and that is their real crime."
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/04/23/nadine-dorries-david-cameron-posh-boys_n_1445068.html?ref=uk-politics&ref=uk

It's nice to see you haven't lost your humour OW regarding wasting money. Does anybody here seriously believe an election would be called Also does anybody here really believe the plastic mob in power come 2015 will change a thing other than increase their own expenses. Come on bin this thread now or join it to one that makes sense.

tlttf wrote:-
It's nice to see you haven't lost your humour OW regarding wasting money.

Nothing funny about the cost of the West Coast mainline fiasco, £3 billion on a reorganisation of the NHS when it had recorded its highest ever level of patient satisfaction, or the increased borrowing merely to finance the unemployment caused by the Tories’ ideological hatred of all things public.

Does anybody here seriously believe an election would be called?

Gordon Brown would probably have fared better if he had held an election in October 2007. The situation with the Tories now is very similar to the state they were in during 1995, as it appears that civil war is about to break out at any moment. Cameron would be well advised to cut his losses and call an election now.

Come on bin this thread now or join it to one that makes sense.

LOL. When it comes to “making sense”, I suggest you take a look at your own posts before criticising any others. Please rest assured that if we need any help with the moderation of this forum, we won’t be asking you.

In answer to the question on this threads topic Ivan Yes they should call an election in 2013, if todays Queeens speech is anything to go by it is time these shower of F***IES threw in the towel. One of the 15 bills they are bringing in is £2,000 of NI relief for small businesses so that they can employ more people without it costing them any NI contributions what a crock of shyte, to employ people they need customers coming into there businesses to buy their goods or services and since Cameron and Diddy Giddy have drove the UK economy into the ground where do they think that people are going to get the money from to go into these businessed and buy whatever it is they are selling,

With the bedroom tax and cuts to Council tax and over 2.5 Million people unemployed plus God knows how many more the TRUE unemploment figures really are I reckon around 5-6 million would be a truer figure of unemployed, at the moment it is either "HEAT OR EAT" we can now add or PAY RENT so I would like to ask this shower of F***IES where is the money coming from for 5-6 Million people going to find the money to buy ANYTHING. Not unles Cameron wants us to go get a loan off his friends at Wonga (Lord Beecroft) so that they also can " Rob the Eyeballs out of Heads and come back for the Sockets" with their interest charges of 4000%.

From http://wp.me/p2sftc-7Af



I’ve heard a number of commentators and journalists over the last few days, and even one Labour MP, talk about the current Tory ‘chaos’ regarding the EU, with backbenchers in ‘revolt’ against Cameron’s lack of promise of an EU ‘in/out referendum’ during this parliament, and the ‘rise’ of UKIP as a threat to the Tory party because of its attraction to the Tory eurosceptic fringe.

The consensus of these commentators was along the lines of this ‘chaos’ representing a grave threat to the Tories as the party risks ‘eating itself’ at a time when it is haemorrhaging votes to UKIP.

It’s true that the situations presents a serious risk to the Tories, but to call it ‘chaos’ is incorrect. It may have started with a relatively small number of fringe Tory MPs who see our membership of the EU as the central issue of our times – but it has been grasped by the Tory media machine as their ‘Battle of the Bulge‘.

In late 1944, Nazi Germany was in retreat and facing an almost irretrievable situation. Hitler thought he had spotted an opportunity for a bold move that would reverse the tide, in spite of internal turmoil within his command – he evaded several assassination attempts during 1944, including the famous ‘Wolf’s Lair’ bomb attempt.

Identifying a weak spot in the allied lines and taking advantage of helpful weather conditions that grounded allied air cover, he concentrated a huge proportion of his forces to launch an attack through the Ardennes forest on his enemies.

The sudden appearance of so much armoured force at a weak point in the line threw the allies into retreat over a wide area – the so-called ‘bulge’ in their lines that gave rise to the name of the battle.

It was an incredibly high-risk strategy, as defeat in that battle would sap German strength fatally and accelerate their defeat – but Hitler reasoned that his defeat was inevitable eventually and that his one hope of victory, or at least of creating a situation in which he could negotiate a truce while he concentrated his efforts on the Russian advance, was in taking the huge risk.

He came closer to success than most people realise, but last-ditch resistance and a change in the weather that allowed allied air power to attack his landbound forces, eventually sealed his defeat.

So it is with the Tories now. Cameron faced rebellion from a section of his party who perceived his weakness and have been trying to pursue their monomania – an EU exit. However, over the past few months there has been a distinct shift in the Tories’ handling of the EU issue.

In January, Cameron made his supposedly game-changing EU speech, in which his promise of an in-out referendum in 2017 was intended to defuse his back-bench revolt and to bring onside the section of the electorate that agreed with the agitators. However, within a week or so his ‘bounce’ in the polls had evaporated:



In the meantime, the constant over-use of Nigel Farage by the BBC on any politics-related programme – his airtime far exceeded what was justified for a party that doesn’t even have an MP and is populated by ‘eccentrics’ to put it kindly – was creating a phenomenon whereby a portion of the electorate that either didn’t know or didn’t care what other policies lay behind UKIP’s headline anti-EU stance were giving him credence.

On top of all this, Labour’s poll ratings were consistently 10-14 points ahead of the Tories, and the Conservatives’ lamentable performance on the economy and their obvious disdain for any concept of social justice and care for the vulnerable was providing easy ammunition for Ed Miliband and co. The dire economic performance (to justify continued and deepening austerity) and planned impoverishment are a core part of the Tory plan, so this trend to Labour was set to continue unabated.

Suddenly, there was a change in the pattern of media coverage and Tory response. Even more than is usual in the rabid right-wing rags like the Mail, the whole Tory press has focused on the EU, while even supposedly serious organisations like the BBC have started to make the EU the main theme of broadcast after broadcast. Meanwhile, Cameron and co have pandered more and more to their ‘lunatic fringe’, encouraging them to be ever more vocal and demanding.

The cumulative effect of this has been to create a creeping impression, without often actually saying as much, that the EU is somehow the cause of our woes, while an exit would be the panacea. Over a very short period, the EU and the stance of various parties on it has become a constant, leading theme on almost any politics-related programme.

That this ‘creeping suggestion’ has been effective so far was evidenced by the performance of UKIP in the recent local elections. While the scale of the ‘achievement’ has been vastly exaggerated, because the elections took place almost exclusively in Tory-heartland shires, it is enough to show the suggestibility of some sections of the electorate.

I believe that Tory strategists assessed the situation and, a few months ago, decided that their only hope of electoral success at the next general election – or at least of preventing an outright Labour win – lies in launching their own ‘Ardennes offensive’ to change the lines of battle.

Just as Hitler threw almost all his forces at a single weak point in the line in 1944, so the Tories believe they have identified a crucial Labour ‘weakness’ in its pro-EU stance and have thrown all their efforts at it in an ‘all or nothing’ gamble. This gambit involves swamping the public consciousness with talk of the EU and its supposed role in our troubles, and banging that drum over and over and over in the hope that enough people will fall into step with its rhythm to erode Labour’s poll leads.

It’s a massively risky plan. By making the EU the all-pervading issue – in blatant and willful ignorance of the facts – the Tories risk dividing their core vote and losing any remotely-marginal seat at the next election.

But they had little to lose, and desperate people do desperate things. Polling in March was suggesting a 110-seat majority for Labour at the next election:


From ukpollingreport.co.uk, 20 Feb.

while Labour were enjoying strong leads in the vast majority of metrics:


From the ConHome website.

Faced with decimation at the next election and no prospect of changing any of the factors that were driving their demise, the Tories have opted to roll the dice and stake everything on the outcome.

Plugging the gap

In the final analysis, Hitler’s gamble was considered a desperate, even suicidal one, doomed to failure. But for a short period the situation was balanced on a knife-edge and anyone looking at the ‘bulge’ on the map might have considered that the offensive was succeeding. It was only desperate resistance by ill-equipped units that managed to delay the German advance until Patton’s 3rd Army could move up and help throw the Germans into a catastrophic defeat.

When the German offensive began and Allied forces in the Ardennes were retreating, Allied generals had to formulate emergency countermeasures and rush any available unit into the area to plug the gap.

At the moment, the Tory gambit is having some success – although not as much as the media would have us believe. Polls showing a Labour lead of only 6 points are pounced on by commentators who talk at length about how poorly Labour must be doing to have only such a lead in mid-Parliament, trying to create a public perception that Labour is weak and unelectable.

But a YouGov poll today for the Sunday Times – hardly a friend to Labour – shows a continuing Labour lead of 11% - down slightly from its recent 12%, but exceptionally resilient when, going by the media coverage, we’ve effectively lived in a one-party state since the Thatcher funeral – and still representing a 90-seat Labour majority at the next election:



However, there is no room for complacency. The media blitzkrieg to turn the EU into the central issue for the next two years to the General Election will continue unabated until Labour formulates an effective line against it.

Labour needs to do this with despatch – and I’m sure is working on it. It shouldn’t be impossible to find an effective line of counterattack – because the facts are on our side. The EU is not the source of our troubles – woeful and probably wilful mismanagement of the economy and a series of growth-killing cuts are – and our membership of the EU is a protection against even worse and more rapid measures.

It will take some boldness for Labour to change the narrative. Some of the things which, so far, Labour’s leaders seem to have felt were better left unsaid for the sake of the ‘middle ground’ will have to be stated outright and repeatedly, to get more people to see through the obvious but attractive (to some) BS peddled by Farage and the media and increasingly adopted by the Tory front bench.

The situation is serious, but not desperate. It requires bold moves, but well-calculated ones. Not panic or the desperate dice-throwing of the Tories but a firm, reasoned, persistent pressing-home of truths that are obvious – but obviously ignored by large sections of the media and therefore unseen by those whose sources of news consists of those organisations. It will need some creativity, too, to bypass or subvert the dominance of organisations that are friendly to the Tories.

We need to get to it without delay – and you can play your part by spreading the word whenever you see, hear or read anything that goes against the prevailing ‘weather’ that the Tories and the media are trying to create to cover their desperate ploy.

The relevant comparison is with John Major's "cabinet of bastards" in 1992-1997, not Adolf. The Tory Party has not changed, it's still the Nasty Party evicted by the Nation's voters in 1997, and which only managed to sneak back in under the cover of darkness and some self-seeking Lib-Dems in 2010.

If that is not still apparent to the electorate in 2015 they'll deserve what they get.

oftenwrong wrote:The relevant comparison is with John Major's "cabinet of bastards" in 1992-1997, not Adolf. The Tory Party has not changed, it's still the Nasty Party evicted by the Nation's voters in 1997, and which only managed to sneak back in under the cover of darkness and some self-seeking Lib-Dems in 2010.

If that is not still apparent to the electorate in 2015 they'll deserve what they get.

The problem with your theory OW is the rest of us would have to suffer MORE nasty cuts to OUR services unemployment would grow past the levels we had in the Thatcher era.

Redflag, it was always likely that the spiteful Tories would trash the joint in the Bullingdon tradition, before being evicted.

oftenwrong wrote:If that is not still apparent to the electorate in 2015 they'll deserve what they get.

Trouble is, millions who won't vote for them will suffer what they don't deserve, if that's what happens.

That was my point exactly skwalker, also the people that cannot be bothered to get off their butt and go out and vote.

Democracy implies government by the majority of those who actually vote.

The apathetic have little right to complain afterwards if extremists carried the day.

oftenwrong wrote:Democracy implies government by the majority of those who actually vote.

The apathetic have little right to complain afterwards if extremists carried the day.

What about all the non-apathetic who lost anyway? Especially when no one actually won..

Some basic help may be found here:

http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/

Are Cameron and Osborne's days numbered? Unmistakably yes. The Tory Party is tearing itself apart.

Whether any other Party can take advantage of that has yet to be established.

oftenwrong wrote:Democracy implies government by the majority of those who actually vote.

The apathetic have little right to complain afterwards if extremists carried the day.

I agree with what you have said OW but think it is up too the ones that do vote to let people know if they want there say in who govern's us get off your butt and vote.

"get off your butt and vote"

I don't disagree, but the English constituency boundaries map reveals a large number of "safe seats" i.e. places which routinely elect the same Party's candidate time-after-time. For example there are places like Bournemouth which have NEVER returned anyone but a Tory to Westminster, and on the other hand gritty Northern areas which are a Tory-Free zone. It's not surprising that Electors wishing to vote "against the tide" in such locations become apathetic and don't bother.

The result of this is that only residents in the MARGINAL seats have a vote that really could swing the election one way or the other.

A sensible reform is well overdue.

What happened in places like Bournemouth when Tony Blair swept to power in 1997 OW, and there must be parts of Bournemouth that will be suffering from the cuts and what is worse to come in the shape of Universal credits at the moment we all think the Tories are just nasty I can assure you all they are nothing but EVIL and rotten to the core.

Redflag wrote:What happened in places like Bournemouth when Tony Blair swept to power in 1997 OW, and there must be parts of Bournemouth that will be suffering from the cuts and what is worse to come in the shape of Universal credits at the moment we all think the Tories are just nasty I can assure you all they are nothing but EVIL and rotten to the core.

General Election 1st. May 1997:
Bournemouth West,John Butterfill
Con 17115,LDm 11405,Lab 10093





http://ukpolitical.info/turnout45.htm

oftenwrong wrote:

Redflag wrote:What happened in places like Bournemouth when Tony Blair swept to power in 1997 OW, and there must be parts of Bournemouth that will be suffering from the cuts and what is worse to come in the shape of Universal credits at the moment we all think the Tories are just nasty I can assure you all they are nothing but EVIL and rotten to the core.

General Election 1st. May 1997:
Bournemouth West,John Butterfill
Con 17115,LDm 11405,Lab 10093





http://ukpolitical.info/turnout45.htm

Thank you OW so it is possible for Labour to take Tory safe seats.

I think OW is saying just the opposite! Those figures show that Labour still came third in Bournemouth West in 1997, even though they won the general election with an overall majority of 179.

I guess some people are natural Tories, just as some are natural socialists - maybe there's room for both - the really bad part is when we begin to think we have to kill each other to maintain our natural comfort zone.

Ivan wrote:I think OW is saying just the opposite! Those figures show that Labour still came third in Bournemouth West in 1997, even though they won the general election with an overall majority of 179.

I wonder where Labour will come in the 2015 general election in Bournemouth Ivan, after 5 years of Tory nastiness with the help of the Lib-Dems, I am reading Andrew Adonis's "5 Days in May" and from what I have read so far the L/Ds do not come out very well my original thoughts have been proven correct, I have also got info on the SNP and now know why they are called the Tartan Tories and it has made a lot of sense to there behavior of today on there stand for Scottish Independence they are expecting the Tories to return the favour from the 70s.

One gets the impression that most folk in Bournemouth would vote for a pig wearing a blue rosette, even if the beast had recently ravished a favourite aunt and left dirty footprints on the newly- laid carpet during a theft of the family silver...

Phil Hornby wrote:One gets the impression that most folk in Bournemouth would vote for a pig wearing a blue rosette, even if the beast had recently ravished a favourite aunt and left dirty footprints on the newly- laid carpet during a theft of the family silver...

Maybe PH another 2 years of the Tories nasty cuts to there pensions will turn there blue rinses into a nice Red Rose bouquet.

We can always hope

oftenwrong wrote:Redflag, it was always likely that the spiteful Tories would trash the joint in the Bullingdon tradition, before being evicted.

With what they have to do to qualify to get into the Bullingdon club its now wonder the come out of Eton with "MEAN NASTY DESTRUCTIVE PERSONALITIES.

"Numbered" is what an article By Ross Clark in today's Sunday Times does for the Tory Party. According to the House of Commons library, the Conservative Party membership stands at a historical low. Places like Canterbury or Oxford contain more inhabitants than there are members in the entire Tory Party nationwide.

The highpoint of 3 million was in the 1950s, at which time one in fifteen Britons belonged to the Tory Party, and The Young Conservatives held sway in most "nice places". This had dropped to 400,000 by the 1997 debacle, and is now between 130,000 to 150,000. The youth wing is now called Conservative Future, and with these dwindling numbers it's interesting to speculate what sort of future they can look forward to.

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/newsreview/features/article1264330.ece