Latest polls

First topic message reminder :

Latest YouGov results are apparently:

Con 30%
Lab 42%
LDem 6%
UKIP 10%

So the drop in Labour's lead to single-digits in a different poll earlier this week was a 'blip', seemingly - the change was within the margin of error and not significant.

Now we've sorted that, what shall we do for the next twenty months? My wax image of the Chancellor has got so many pins stuck in, it faces magnetic north.

oftenwrong wrote:Now we've sorted that, what shall we do for the next twenty months?  My wax image of the Chancellor has got so many pins stuck in, it faces magnetic north.

The only Magnetism the Chancer of the Exchequer has is coming from the South East of England OW, where the people are getting tax breaks right left and centre.

The only Magnetism the Chancer of the Exchequer has is coming from the south of England OW, where the people are getting tax breaks right left and centre.

I just want to point something out to you Red. There has been more Social cleansing in London than anywhere else in the UK, and due to prices being generally higher in the South East, those on minimum wage or less struggle more than those up North where their Pound buys more.
Who do the Northerners who go on about the wealthy South, think posts the letters, sweeps the roads and does all the other menial jobs  in the south, I can assure you it aint the rich.

bobby wrote:The only Magnetism the Chancer of the Exchequer has is coming from the south of England OW, where the people are getting tax breaks right left and centre.

I just want to point something out to you Red. There has been more Social cleansing in London than anywhere else in the UK, and due to prices being generally higher in the South East, those on minimum wage or less struggle more than those up North where their Pound buys more.
Who do the Northerners who go on about the wealthy South, think posts the letters, sweeps the roads and does all the other menial jobs  in the south, I can assure you it aint the rich.

Sorry bobby I will ajust my post to read South East, I was thinking the leafy surburbs of Surrey.

The fact is that for many years London and the South-East has, in financial terms, been a different Country. National and International Companies there have to pay staff a "London weighting". There is a strong suspicion that Legislators and also Press commentators take little account of this difference.

Various departments of government have been successfully moved out to Wales, Merseyside or Glasgow, etc. So the next logical move would be to shift the entire Political machine to a "Capital" more geographically central.

oftenwrong wrote:The fact is that for many years London and the South-East has, in financial terms, been a different Country.  National and International Companies there have to pay staff a "London weighting".  There is a strong suspicion that Legislators and also Press commentators take little account of this difference.

Various departments of government have been successfully moved out to Wales, Merseyside or Glasgow, etc. So the next logical move would be to shift the entire Political machine to a "Capital" more geographically central.

And, if they'd take it, sell London to the Russians or the yanks. It is no bloody good to us!

Red Said.    I was thinking the leafy surburbs of Surrey

Hiya Red, Very much like the leafy suburbs I presently live in?. That said there aren't many near me who share my political views, but as My home/business used to be a farm and is surrounded by other farms, thankfully I don't get to meet too many of the Tory scumbags (lucky for them).

Where David Cameron lives, everyone can remember when it was all green fields.  Because it still is.

Get back in yer boxes, Plebs!

bobby wrote:Red Said.    I was thinking the leafy surburbs of Surrey

Hiya Red, Very much like the leafy suburbs I presently live in?. That said there aren't many near me who share my political views, but as My home/business used to be a farm and is surrounded by other farms, thankfully I don't get to meet too many of the Tory scumbags (lucky for them).

I have a very good friend in the same position bobby you will know him Stox he sometimes posts on here lives in an Tory area but he has been a Labour party member and activist all his life, did you know that the NHA party will be standing candidates in Scam..er..ons seat and I think Diddy Giddy will have some competition from the NHA party and those against HS2 will be putting up a candidate.

Just in case you have not heard of the NHA party its Doctors from OUR NHS that Fantastic organization we all love and revere, and who are under threat from the blue & yellow Tories who have been trying to run it down but not telling us the full truth which is by taking £20 Billion out of there budget and will take out more, in todays papers apparently OUR NHS is having to do more private operations so they can do some health care for NHS patients.

So to fellow boarders if you want to keep OUR NHS you will need to get rid of this gov't, so do not vote Tory Lib-Dem or UKIP as they will just carry on this gov't policies they have thrust on us for the last THREE & HALF years, just in case any one accuses me of asking people to vote for the Labour party I would like you to but what is more important you do not vote for Tory Lib-Dem or UKIP the second hand Tory party that is why disgruntled Tory voters turn too UKIP.

Latest State of the MSN Poll today :

Do you want a Labour government after the next general election?

1. I want a Labour government
   
   37 %
   
   2,232 votes
   
   
   
   
   
2. I want a Conservative government
    
   22 %
   
   1,324 votes
   
   
   
   
   
3. I want a Liberal Democrat government
    
   1 %
   
   119 votes
   
   
   
   
   
4. I want a Liberal Democrat-Labour coalition
    
   6 %
   
   365 votes
   
   
   
   
   
5. I want a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
    
   5 %
   
   279 votes
   
   
   
   
   
6. I want a Conservative-Ukip coalition
    
   29 %
   
   1,778 votes
   
   
   
   
   

Not sure what this tells us - except , perhaps, confirming the confusion of  (the limited section of ) the British public. Good to see , however, the clear enthusiasm for a purely LibDem administration, or any combination which might include Clegg's fellow traitors...

PH what your poll does say is that 37% of the UK public want a Labour majority gov't at the next general election, which is a good sign for the future of the UK.

I myself want the Labour party to have NOTHING to do with any one in Prostitute party (L/Ds) they are all too faced to every last one of them, the impression I got from Cleggy he thinks from now on he is the King maker of politics he seems to forget one thing its the good people of the UK that decide who walks into the H.O.C. He also seems to be taking the people of Halam Sheffield for granted he seems to think they will vote him back into his seat after what he did to Sheffield Forgemasters is one example I am quite certain that more will come out from the people.

:Problem is, if there has to be another coalition, who COULD Labour join with in order to form a government? 

Has to be LD's, unless (nightmare scenario)  UKIP get some seats or (rather better)  the Greens become better represented.
The LD's (spit!)  have the Party machinery to remain a player in the next GE - and may well need to be on board with the next government.

As Phil says, Ed Milliband, although indubitably in my opinion a decent bloke with the right ideas, isn't exactly winning hearts and minds with the electorate - personally, I suspect he's a bit intellectual  . 

Although we've seen and hated the common touch as portrayed by Scameron - in the public's mind 'strength' seems so often to equate to a simple message repeated aggressively and providing a scapegoat.

QUOTE: " Problem is, if there has to be another coalition, who COULD Labour join with in order to form a government?"

The past is not necessarily a guide to the future.  Any party is entitled to form a minority Government, and any of the other parties is entitled to provide support on common ground matters.  That's not a Coalition.  

Consensus would have been far less damaging for the Lib-Dems (and the rest of us!) if they had merely agreed to vote alongside Cameron's shower on anodyne matters of mutual agreement.

oftenwrong wrote:QUOTE: " Problem is, if there has to be another coalition, who COULD Labour join with in order to form a government?"

The past is not necessarily a guide to the future.  Any party is entitled to form a minority Government, and any of the other parties is entitled to provide support on common ground matters.  That's not a Coalition.  

Consensus would have been far less damaging for the Lib-Dems (and the rest of us!) if they had merely agreed to vote alongside Cameron's shower on anodyne matters of mutual agreement.

You have good points there OW, sorry but I am still hoping the people of the UK wake up in time to give us a Majority Labour gov't in 2015.

Excellent points, OW.
I hadn't in fact realised that a minority government was possible.
Does that mean Brown could have decided just to continue in government, despite the poor outcome in 2010?

Thanks

Does that mean Brown could have decided just to continue in government, despite the poor outcome in 2010?.

Nope Boatlady, the Tories had won the most seats, so they could have formed a minority government, but either way it would not have been a good idea

blueturando wrote:

Does that mean Brown could have decided just to continue in government, despite the poor outcome in 2010?.

Nope Boatlady, the Tories had won the most seats, so they could have formed a minority government, but either way it would not have been a good idea

Now the entire UK knows it was a MISTAKE to vote Tory whether that be minority or majority, but now we know better and will not repeat that mistake again, because us on the left will REMIND people at every election in the future.

Now the entire UK knows it was a MISTAKE to vote Tory

Not true unless you have evidence otherwise...Like the Tories are polling 0%? And you on the left have no one to vote for, except maybe the Greens. If you were tuely left wing thats where you vote would go because Labours policy anouncments are certainly not Left wing. So what you have to really admit is that youre a Labour supporter no matter what and not a left winger at all...In fact i am probably more left than you

blueturando wrote:

Now the entire UK knows it was a MISTAKE to vote Tory

Not true unless you have evidence otherwise...Like the Tories are polling 0%? And you on the left have no one to vote for, except maybe the Greens. If you were tuely left wing thats where you vote would go because Labours policy anouncments are certainly not Left wing. So what you have to really admit is that youre a Labour supporter no matter what and not a left winger at all...In fact i am probably more left than you

Your wrong blue, the Tories pulled the wool over the eyes of the public and told plenty of LIES to make themselves look electable for the 2010 general election, and managed to get themselves 305 seats so a win but not a a majority in the H.O.C.

Why do you think I took the avatar REDFLAG, if it was up too me the trains and utilities would be NATIONALIZED and the private owners told to FCUK OFF no compensation, go see your friends in the Tory party and get them to put the HAT around for you poor dears.

Yes I will always vote Labour because voting Tory would make me say "PASS THE SICK BAG" or hand me the HACKSAW so I can hack off both hands without a doctor to help or give me an anesethic.

Your wrong blue, the Tories pulled the wool over the eyes of the public and told plenty of LIES to make themselves look electable for the 2010 general election, and managed to get themselves 305 seats so a win but not a a majority in the H.O.C.

What lies Redflag? Please give some examples. You may not like Tory policies, but at least they are up front about them. Remember the Leaders Televsion debates in 2010? Cameron said they would have to make deep cuts more quickly to try and get the deficit down and the economy to recover sooner rather than 10-15 years down the line...and thats what they did. There were no lies or spin, they told us what they would do and they have done it. Maybe Labour could do with a honesty pill once in a while?!

blueturando wrote:

Your wrong blue, the Tories pulled the wool over the eyes of the public and told plenty of LIES to make themselves look electable for the 2010 general election, and managed to get themselves 305 seats so a win but not a a majority in the H.O.C.

What lies Redflag? Please give some examples. You may not like Tory policies, but at least they are up front about them. Remember the Leaders Televsion debates in 2010? Cameron said they would have to make deep cuts more quickly to try and get the deficit down and the economy to recover sooner rather than 10-15 years down the line...and thats what they did. There were no lies or spin, they told us what they would do and they have done it. Maybe Labour could do with a honesty pill once in a while?!

They promised there would be no top-down changes in the NHS, for one thing.

blueturando wrote:

Your wrong blue, the Tories pulled the wool over the eyes of the public and told plenty of LIES to make themselves look electable for the 2010 general election, and managed to get themselves 305 seats so a win but not a a majority in the H.O.C.

What lies Redflag? Please give some examples. You may not like Tory policies, but at least they are up front about them. Remember the Leaders Televsion debates in 2010? Cameron said they would have to make deep cuts more quickly to try and get the deficit down and the economy to recover sooner rather than 10-15 years down the line...and thats what they did. There were no lies or spin, they told us what they would do and they have done it. Maybe Labour could do with a honesty pill once in a while?!

Here is one that a poster was bought for remember this !!

THE NHS IS SAFE IN MY HANDS just in case you have not heard blue a USA private health company made a donation of around £170,000 to the Tory party funds then was give a GOV'T CONTRACT worth £700 Million to supply OUR NHS and have you not noticed adverts on TV from private health compnaies in USA for health Insurance in this country, and he now wants to sell off OUR Royal Mail so he will have money to BRIBE the voters in May 2015 to vote Tory so DESPERATE for power so he can bring back the WORKHOUSES

So if it was up to me I would tell these private companies to get lost we are RE-NATIONALIZING OUR NHS & OUR ROYAL MAIL and if they want compensation go ask the Tories & the Prostitute party maybe they will pass the hat around for you, after all it was them you gave your donations too to buy your contracts.:yeahthat: 

How correct you are Red. On gaining power, Labour should renationalise the Post Office and everything else the Tory incompetents have sold off and without compensation to their supporters.

LWS wrote:How correct you are Red. On gaining power, Labour should renationalise the Post Office and everything else the Tory incompetents have sold off and without compensation to their supporters.

Thanks LWS all I will at this point is read my new thread this also goes to those who doubted the good people of the UK.

(Re-)Nationalisation without compensation puts us in bed with Mugabe.

May be a good idea to develop a Plan "B" for reversing Tory injustice.
e.g. elected worker representatives on the Board.

Why aren’t the Tory trolls here tonight, trying to make something out of nothing? There was an Ipsos MORI poll out today which has both Labour and the Tories on 35% (UKIP 10% and Lib Dems 9%), and yet I’ve had to post the news for them!  
 
Anthony Wells of YouGov says that this one-off poll could well be an “outlier” in favour of the Tories, but when has a minor detail like that ever bothered ‘Daily Mail’ sycophants?

A group not mentioned in the Poll holds a wild card, which could change the political climate. i.e. Scotnats.

oftenwrong wrote:A group not mentioned in the Poll holds a wild card, which could change the political climate. i.e. Scotnats.

That is only if Cameron has not forced the majority of Scots to vote YES in 2014 OW.

Isn't that in his interests? Scotland going independent strengthens the tory position in England.

ghost whistler wrote:Isn't that in his interests? Scotland going independent strengthens the tory position in England.

 
You have a fair point there gw, but then if we leave the UK the oil and gas will come with us and Cameron will lose some amount of tax that Scotland pays into the treasury, because we pay in more than we get out.

we pay in more than we get out.

I'm such a dunce! Is that really true?

boatlady wrote:we pay in more than we get out.

I'm such a dunce! Is that really true?

It rather depends who is calculating the figures.

For example if Scotland is required to pay up for its banks instead of the UK then it is simply bankrupt. Again if it is required to pay its full share of the national debt then, as before it is bankrupt. If it can walk away without any major commitment to debt repayment and can con the rest of the UK into 1. providing armed forces and 2. some neat lease deal over nuclear subs (which we probably don't need) and 3. take the profit from the north sea without contributing to the upfront investment costs then it should be financially viable.

I note that the ScotNats, having seen that Ed's master stroke of freezing energy costs for 18 months worked wonders with the electorate, have entered into a sort of Dutch auction of energy costs. 5% off (off what mind you?!). What will it have reached by the vote date of October next year?!

Scotland is 85% self-sufficient in meeting its own energy requirement, but may or may not sell more of its production to England for enhanced income.

Bellatori wrote:It rather depends who is calculating the figures.

For example if Scotland is required to pay up for its banks instead of the UK then it is simply bankrupt. Again if it is required to pay its full share of the national debt then, as before it is bankrupt. If it can walk away without any major commitment to debt repayment and can con the rest of the UK into 1. providing armed forces and 2. some neat lease deal over nuclear subs (which we probably don't need) and 3. take the profit from the north sea without contributing to the upfront investment costs then it should be financially viable.

I note that the Scot Nats, having seen that Ed's master stroke of freezing energy costs for 18 months worked wonders with the electorate, have entered into a sort of Dutch auction of energy costs. 5% off (off what mind you?!). What will it have reached by the vote date of October next year?!

 
Bellatorie the Scots Nats will do or say anything just to get Scotland to vote yes for Independence,  they even have promised us no more Tory gov'ts when everyone knows Scots DO NOT VOTE TORY EVER.:yeahthat:

Redflag wrote:
Bellatorie the Scots Nats will do or say anything just to get Scotland to vote yes for Independence,  they even have promised us no more Tory gov'ts when everyone knows Scots DO NOT VOTE TORY EVER.

Ever?

During the 1950s there were never less than 30 Conservative MPs for Scottish constituencies with a high of 36 (out of 71) in 1955 when the Tory share of the vote in Scotland was more than 50%.

Successive Conservative governments managed to reduce their number of Scottish MPs from most to none (1997) in less than 50 years. Impressive!

That was the 1950s Norm Deplume which in my reckoning is about 60 odd years ago, but Thatcher finished that off for good with her Poll Tax making the Scots the guinea pigs for the most UNFAIREST tax, by giving it to Scotland one year before England got it because she only ever got ONE Tory MP voted for by the minority of Scots.:yeahthat:

Redflag. Sorry to have to tell you, but it’s being predicted that the number of Tory MPs in Scotland will increase from one to four at the next election. The Tories are set to gain 17 seats from the Lib Dems (three of them in Scotland), because their vote is expected to fall by less than their coalition partners. The good news is that the Tories are likely to lose 91 other seats to Labour.
 
If any Cutting Edge member enjoys opinion polls and their implications, this is the site for you:-
 
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
 
You can look up every constituency in the UK and view its probable result in the next general election. From a sample of over 9,800 people, the latest prediction is for an overall Labour majority of 78 – Lab 364, Con 232, Lib Dems 23, UKIP 0, Others 31.
 
The site reckons that Danny Alexander, Anna Soubry, Chloe Smith, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Esther McVey, Jo Swinson, and sadly, Caroline Lucas, will lose their seats. (Sarah Teather would do as well, but she’s already decided to jump ship.)
 
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html

Redflag wrote:That was the 1950s Norm Deplume which in my reckoning is about 60 odd years ago, but Thatcher finished that off for good with her Poll Tax making the Scots the guinea pigs for the most UNFAIREST tax, by giving it to Scotland one year before England got it because she only ever got ONE Tory MP voted for by the minority of Scots.:yeahthat:

I know it was the 1950s. That's why I wrote "during the 1950s". I also pointed out that that successive Conservative governments (not just Thatcher's) had destroyed their support in Scotland.

It is unlikely, but nevertheless possible, that the Scots might swing to the right in the future. I have no doubt that if someone had predicted in 1957 that there would be no Tory MPs at all within 40 years there would have been plenty of people to scoff at the idea.

Thatcher replaced Heavy Industry with the City of London.

Would an Independent Scotland attempt to revive its Financial sector, and if so, how much "English" investment could be attracted?