Latest polls

First topic message reminder :

Latest YouGov results are apparently:

Con 30%
Lab 42%
LDem 6%
UKIP 10%

So the drop in Labour's lead to single-digits in a different poll earlier this week was a 'blip', seemingly - the change was within the margin of error and not significant.

Thatcher replaced Heavy Industry with the City of London.

Would an Independent Scotland attempt to revive its Financial sector, and if so, how much "English" investment could be attracted?

oftenwrong wrote:Thatcher replaced Heavy Industry with the City of London.

Would an Independent Scotland attempt to revive its Financial sector, and if so, how much "English" investment could be attracted?

She did the same here in Scotland OW, gone are the ship building on the Clyde gone are the steel works and our coal mines, the Tartan Tory Salmond has got his eye on the Main Chance President of Scotland IMHO that is his reasoning behind the Indepence ruse, he wants to be exactly in the same position as Cameron but if Salmond thinks that they will allow him to keep the pound if Scots vote YES he is deluded because for nothing more than because the Tories are just little BALLS OF NASTINESS & SPITE will not allow us to keep the pound, for another reason that if we vote YES how good is that gong to look on Scam..er..ons CV under his watch Scotland left the Union.:yeahthat: 

I remember chatting to a middle-manager of The BoS on the Heathrow shuttle, and asking him why they persisted with the One Pound Note. His answer should have been obvious to me. A pound coin costs a pound to buy from The Royal Mint, but they can print a note for just pennies.

I think Mr. Salmomd will be aware of that.

We very rarely get pund notes, OW, the majority of £s is in coin form, what Salmond means to keep Sterling as our monetary system.

YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. This means we’ve had Labour leads from YouGov of 7 points, 10 points, 8 points and 8 points this week, higher than recent averages.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

oftenwrong wrote:YouGov poll ...

The Mail figures also came via YouGov which is how I got to the article.

But will all those nice people who respond to Pollsters' enquiries now repeat them in a General Election?

That PH will depend on whether he is still around with a seat in the HOC

Redflag. I fear that it's very likely Clegg will still be an MP after the next election, but I expect Tim Farron (who also has a safe seat) to replace him as Lib Dem leader. At least Farron voted against the bedroom tax last Tuesday.
 
These are the Electoral Calculus predictions:-
 
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_r_s.html#SheffieldHallam
 
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_t_z.html#WestmorlandandLonsdale

oftenwrong wrote:-
But will all those nice people who respond to Pollsters' enquiries now repeat them in a General Election?

 
I’ve often heard people rubbish opinion polls by saying: “In all these years, nobody has ever stopped me in the street and asked me how I intend to vote.” That’s because it doesn’t work that way. Polling organisations build up a vast database of individuals and then contact a sample of 1,000 or so people (Electoral Calculus uses a much bigger sample) by telephone or by email for their opinions.
 
If anyone wants to be a member of this YouGov database (and be rewarded with your choice of either 50p or a ticket for a lucky draw every time you complete a survey!), this link will enable you to join:-
 
https://yougov.co.uk/refer/wgY7TM-Eps7EbCepYDkMug/

Ivan wrote:Redflag. I fear that it's very likely Clegg will still be an MP after the next election, but I expect Tim Farron (who also has a safe seat) to replace him as Lib Dem leader. At least Farron voted against the bedroom tax last Tuesday.

 
I am quite surprised Ivan as Clegg will be standing in the same seat as he did in 2010,after all the lies he told to the Uni students the workers at Forgemasters in Sheffield plus all the nasty Tory Bills Clegg and every L/D in the HOC have waved through I just hope the people of Sheffield are not that forgiving.

Ipsos MORI poll on Osborne's Autumn Statement:-
 

 
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/12/autumn-statement-poll-public-back-balls-over-osborne

The whole of Osborne's tenure as Chancellor has been a conjuring trick performance worthy of Paul Daniels, or possibly Tommy Cooper. The numbers change from budget-to-budget, but don't actually result in tangible improvement.

Despite that however, Labour complaints about three wasted years will not impress voters, who only want to hear about their positive policies for improvement, not whingeing. We can do that on our own.

Come May 2015 what will those voters do?

They will be annoyed and disgusted with Cameron , but will not find Miliband sufficiently convincing to have the confidence to willingly put him in power.

 As for Clegg , the public must surely feel that he is a slimy opportunistic nonentity. Farage will tempt some, until they wake up and see what a shallow waffler he actually is. 

What a choice! Excuse me while I go and dig a hole to hide in...   

Phil Hornby wrote: As for Clegg , the public must surely feel that he is a slimy opportunistic nonentity. Farage will tempt some, until they wake up and see what a shallow waffler he actually is. 

 
A fair enough summary though I think you are too kind about Clegg . The last time anyone sold out the British people in such a shabby and dangerous way they ended up firstly in prison and then in Russia... Farage is protected by the same factor that protects Boris - he can waffle from the sidelines without any chance of having to demonstrate that he knows what he is doing. He may do well for one election but I reckon that will be it. The  liberals will have to dump Clegg and then eat crow for several elections before anyone will trust them again. Probably not in my life time.

Bellatori wrote:-
He (Farage) may do well for one election

 
UKIP will probably do quite well in the EU elections next year, but Electoral Calculus cannot identify a single Westminster seat which Farage and his motley crew might win in 2015:-
 
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Bellatori wrote:
A fair enough summary though I think you are too kind about Clegg . The last time anyone sold out the British people in such a shabby and dangerous way they ended up firstly in prison and then in Russia... Farage is protected by the same factor that protects Boris - he can waffle from the sidelines without any chance of having to demonstrate that he knows what he is doing. He may do well for one election but I reckon that will be it. The  liberals will have to dump Clegg and then eat crow for several elections before anyone will trust them again. Probably not in my life time.

 
I agree with your summary on Clegg bellatori, he intends to stand in the same seat as he did in 2010 and I can not understand how Clegg expects the people of Hallam Sheffield to vote him back into the seat after all the LIES he told them to get their vote in 2010 general election.:yeahthat:

Lib-Dems, UKIP, Greens (sorry!) and London Mayors will each and all be a sideshow at the next General Election, which is for all practical purposes between the two big beasts of the Westminster Jungle. Neither of which can win a governing majority.

The "feel-good factor" will by May next year be just detectable, but few voters are going to be grateful after such suffering. Will sufficient numbers be prepared to restore a Labour Government, after the banking fiasco of 2008?

What do you think?

By hook or by crook, it will be another Tory-led coalition. Various dark forces - led by the big players of the corrupt media - will see to that...

Quite so. It's more than a bit spooky to look back on Britain since WW2 and be able to recognise clearly how much of our "history" seems to have been pre-ordained.

As though by a hidden hand.

If you can't beat 'em - Join 'em!

Ivan wrote:

Bellatori wrote:-
He (Farage) may do well for one election

 
UKIP will probably do quite well in the EU elections next year, but Electoral Calculus cannot identify a single Westminster seat which Farage and his motley crew might win in 2015:-
 
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Not really what I was driving at, Ivan. He gets, say, 10%+ of the vote and wins no seats. Where do the votes come from? Labour? Liberal? Probably not. So basically he screws Cameron. but by the time an election comes in 2020 the trail of idiotic UKIP debacles will be long and wide and they will have fallen back to join the likes of the BNP as a marginal protest party. The only downside that I can see is that Farage might just implode his party before 2015. They are certainly trying quite hard to do so.

Ivan wrote:Electoral Calculus cannot identify a single Westminster seat which Farage and his motley crew might win in 2015:-
 
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Interesting site that. Cheers, Ivan.

Phil Hornby wrote:By hook or by crook, it will be another Tory-led coalition. Various dark forces - led by the big players of the corrupt media - will see to that...

If I thought there was any possibility of that happening PH I would be running around Scotland telling everyone to VOTE YES to Independence, anything will be better than another Tory led gov't in the UK. :yeahthat: 

I read this MORI poll as indicating "A plague on all your houses" from the British electorate.

oftenwrong wrote:... I read this MORI poll as indicating "A plague on all your houses" from the British electorate.

What is worrying is that people seem to have the highest degree of satisfaction for Farage     How is this possible ?    

I also thought your description of the LibDems using Quisling was particularly apt.

Today's polls:-

ComRes/Indy on Sunday – Lab 36%, Con 29%, UKIP 18%, Lib Dems 8%

Opinium/Observer - Lab 37%, Con 30%, UKIP 16%, Lib Dems 8%

YouGov/Sunday Times – Lab 38%, Con 32%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dems 9%

Bellatori wrote:-
What is worrying is that people seem to have the highest degree of satisfaction for Farage. How is this possible?

- Farage is perceived as different from the other party leaders and a ‘man of the people’ (wrongly, of course).

- Farage is untainted by high office, and his poor attendance at the EU Parliament (while making exorbitant claims for expenses) goes largely unreported.

- Farage has been given the oxygen of publicity by the BBC – 15 appearances on ‘Question Time’ in 4 years. Like Boris Johnson, he’s seen as more of a celebrity and more ‘fun’ than other party leaders by a dozy electorate brainwashed with crap such as ‘The X Factor’.

- Farage is a rabble-rouser who tells the most ridiculous lies without being challenged. For example: “More people settled in this country in 2010 than came here for the previous 1,000 years.” (According to the Office for National Statistics, 591,000 people came here in 2010, while in 2006 alone 596,000 came.)

http://www.shortlist.com/home/on-tour-with-ukip

"... seen as more of a celebrity and more ‘fun’ than other party leaders by a dozy electorate brainwashed with crap such as ‘The X Factor’.

Precisely why the outcome in 2015 will see the Tories maintain their stranglehold on power! The nation will have done it to itself...

Ivan wrote:Today's polls:-

ComRes/Indy on Sunday – Lab 36%, Con 29%, UKIP 18%, Lib Dems 8%

Opinium/Observer - Lab 37%, Con 30%, UKIP 16%, Lib Dems 8%

YouGov/Sunday Times – Lab 38%, Con 32%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dems 9%

That poll of polls gives the following...

National Prediction: LAB majority 84
Party '10 Votes Seats Votes Gain Lose Seats
CON 36.97% 307 30.30% 18 89 236
LAB 29.66% 258 37.00% 109 0 367
LIB 23.56% 57 8.30% 0 36 21
UKIP 3.17% 0 15.70% 0 0 0
NAT 2.26% 9 2.26% 0 2 7
MIN 0.89% 19 0.89% 1 1 19
OTH 3.48% 0 5.55% 0 0 0

Why Labour's poll lead is small but very stubborn

As long as Ed Miliband retains the support of around 20% of 2010 Lib Dem voters, the Tories have no hope of victory.

Article by George Eaton:-
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/12/why-labours-poll-lead-small-very-stubborn

Ivan, after what the Tories and Lib-Dems have done to the people of the UK, it will be impossible for any sane person to vote for any of these VILE NASTY MONSTERS  :yeahthat:

Bobby, I think you are right about a poster campaign. Pictures of queues at food banks for a start. The one thing going for Labour is that all the hype over a recovery is wearing a little thin. People do not feel better. There is no feel good factor. There is a justifiable underlying fear of a rise in interest rates which will plunge many into real and unaffordable debt. The Tories may be able to convince the bankers and their other chums that poverty is a thing of the past but I do believe that most of us know better and also know exactly how much to trust the word of the coalition.

"There is a justifiable underlying fear of a rise in interest rates which will plunge many into real and unaffordable debt."

If and when that appears to be imminent, Gideon will discover an economic miracle at the bottom of his Santa Claus sack such as a government indemnity for nervous mortgage-lenders.

Bellatori wrote:Bobby, I think you are right about a poster campaign. Pictures of queues at food banks for a start. The one thing going for Labour is that all the hype over a recovery is wearing a little thin. People do not feel better. There is no feel good factor. There is a justifiable underlying fear of a rise in interest rates which will plunge many into real and unaffordable debt. The Tories may be able to convince the bankers and their other chums that poverty is a thing of the past but I do believe that most of us know better and also know exactly how much to trust the word of the coalition.

I think you're onto something bellatori if people do not feel the difference in their pockets they will eventually say "what recovery", dissolving Davy boys Tory spin about the economy being on the mend he managed to fool the people of the UK in the beginning but that has worn very thin now.   Along with all his Gaffes & U-Turns I do not think he will convince the voters to vote Tory ever again. 

12% of teachers support the Tories and 6% support the Lib Dems; I'm amazed that the percentages are so high:-

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/01/just-12-teachers-would-vote-conservative

And Coalition Weather is crap too!

My old Dad used to be convinced that we experienced worse weather when women did the forecast on TV. 

 But then , he also used to have a high regard for Thatcher. Bless him...

- Farage has been given the oxygen of publicity by the BBC – 15 appearances on ‘Question Time’ in 4 years. Like Boris Johnson, he’s seen as more of a celebrity and more ‘fun’ than other party leaders by a dozy electorate brainwashed with crap such as ‘The X Factor’. wrote:

He comes across as a likeable blokeish sort of bloke who you might enjoy debating politics with down the pub. His televised trip around Eastern Europe meeting potential migrants was brilliant and he didn't put a foot wrong, changed his views as he went along, and meeted and greeted everyone in a friendly way.

Milliband might like to consider a fly on the wall expose of himself if the British public is to have any idea of what sort of a bloke, and what sort of policies, he is going to be representing so people can know what they are voting for.

The quiet man isn't doing the decent people of Britain any favours by staying at home and living the quiet life.

In UK Politics there are three people who enjoy personal popularity because of their so-called charisma, alternatively though perhaps not helpfully, described as sex-appeal.

It will be a sad day when we elect only beautiful people to be our Leaders.