Latest polls

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Latest YouGov results are apparently:

Con 30%
Lab 42%
LDem 6%
UKIP 10%

So the drop in Labour's lead to single-digits in a different poll earlier this week was a 'blip', seemingly - the change was within the margin of error and not significant.

We are probably mere hours away from the formation of a "STOP JEREMY" faction within the Labour Party.

Ivan wrote:I was polled by YouGov about my voting intentions for the Labour leadership and deputy leadership elections, and I see that the results of its latest survey have just been published:-

Jeremy Corbyn 53%
Andy Burnham 21%
Yvette Cooper 18%
Liz Kendall 8%

If the pollsters have got it so badly wrong again and Corbyn doesn’t win, it will surely be time for them to buy crystal balls and Tarot cards and seek work in fairgrounds.  

I think Labours £3.00 mebership to vote in the leadership election is one of Labours big mistakes, firstly its not fair to those that pay there full membership fees & secondly it has been proved in todays news 1,000 have been found to be FRADULENT most of which I suspect will be Tory voters. Its plain to see the Tories want rid of the Labour party so we only have a "ONE PARTY COUNTRY" which will mean AUSTERITY For Ever. In the next 5 years the Tories will change the boundaries and do away with the Unions leaving them in power and the only party to vote for THEN we will be back to the way things where in the 18th Century along with all the laws that were in place at that time

I do hope not. Therein lies the road to self-destruct min and the inevitable Tory gloating would be unbearable.

The aim was to encourage a fully democratic vote and all parties should respect the outcome.

The problem there Claudine Labour thinks all people believe in Democracy, sorry to say but the Tories do not believe in Democracy for ALL, but just for the chosen few at the top of the tree.

All the Tories want is to stay in power by getting rid of the Labour party and any other party that stands up for the little man/woman.

Redflag. 1,200 voting applications have been found to be fraudulent, which suggests to me that the vetting system is working. Not all of the invalid applications have come from Tories; for example, Ken Loach was rejected because he set up Left Unity.

I agree that voting should probably have been restricted to people who were already members when the leadership election was called, but I also understand the motive for getting as many people as possible involved in the rebuilding of Labour. As over 600,000 people will be receiving ballot papers, and as the result is all but done and dusted (latest poll says Corbyn 57%, Burnham 20%, Cooper 16%, Kendall 7%), fraud is unlikely to affect the result - and the £3-a-vote fee will provide what Arthur Daley would have called “a nice little earner” for the party.

IVAN I would not mind Labour having a nice little earner, but how much has cost them in staff to weed out the fraudulent ones? I do not want to see my party going down the tubes, because the Tory party would rub there hands with glee then what woukl happen to the normal man/women of the UK more than likely worse cuts more austerity for a very long time until there was NO public sector left.

A majority of a large turnout dispels any allegations of a stitch-up, so although there may be unforeseen repercussions from the widening of opportunity to vote it was probably a risk worth taking, so as to make the result stick.

The Tories are always eager to criticise "unrepresentative" Union strike votes, for example.

The Tories are thick as two short planks if they think by oulawing Union strikes as there is always CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE which every one can take part in. The Unions are paid for by the workers of the UK as Ed Miliband s its the cleanest money to support a political party whereas the Tories donations is the DIRTIEST coming from B(W)ankers & hedge fund managers and need to tell the people of the UK were Tory money comes from.

The Polls remain in bad odour having now got yet another prediction WRONG, today in Greece.

I wonder whether this results from a modern trend for electors to dismiss any result not in accordance with their individual choice?

It may have commenced with the EU when a re-writing (though it wasn't called that) of the Treaty of Rome required support through referendums in various countries, some of which had to be run more than once in order to get the right answer.  Since then we have had the curious situation in Scotland a year ago when thousands of people realised AFTER the result that they had really wanted the opposite, so then joined the ScotNats as some kind of consolation prize.

Now, if we are to believe media reporting, Jeremy Corbyn may have to  embark upon some kind of re-validation of his election - which apparently hasn't quite satisfied everybody who is involved in the Labour movement.

Real polls are better than opinion polls, and here is a council election result from last night:-


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSh7oDtWsAA4brE.png

Okay, it's early days and this is a very small sample in one town in the north of England. However, it doesn't suggest that voters are leaving Labour in droves because the party has become 'extreme' with Jeremy Corbyn in charge. It might even indicate that some of the disgruntled working class voters who opted for UKIP may be moving back to Labour.

That looks like the kind of graph I like to see
Would be good to see one from the last election held there

No matter how small - an encouragement is an encouragement...

But how are 36% mad enough to vote Tory with only a 0.3% drop off ?

Depressing stuff - do people NEVER learn...?

Fascinating poll result. Really fascinating. Clearly Corbyn is not as unelectable as Danczuk, Blair, Blunkett and many others may have thought.

Labour gain from the Tories in St Austell:-


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSln7itWoAAM5Nn.jpg

Bit of a trend emerging?

I certainly hope so.

If we listened to the right wing media and Simon Danzuck we would be getting ready for another Labour leadership contest I think JC will surprise more than his DOUBTERS I think the UK is ready for CORBYN ECONOMICS boatlady and Claudine.

Too early to get over-excited, but it also seems that this part of the South-west has not been kind to the LibDems who have a history of doing well there as I recall.

Insignificant, of course, but the longest journey starts with a single step and all that....

Definitely too early for firm predictions - but it's still nice to see the Labour voters coming out

Phil Hornby wrote:But how are 36% mad enough to vote Tory with only a 0.3% drop off ?

Depressing stuff - do people NEVER learn...?

PH that is something that PUZZLES me too, after last weeks debacle over Tax Credits people need to wake up and smell the coffee you would have thought after the 5 years of a Tory led coalition gov't that would have been enough for the people of the UK.

Andrew Rawnsley, writing in The Guardian, suggests that mistaken pollsters "might have created surprise Tory triumph in May 2015".

The polls drove incessant media conjecture about what might happen in a “messy” hung parliament and that played to the advantage of the Conservatives. It gave the Tories the context to launch a propaganda barrage designed to stir the fears of Middle England that a Miliband minority government would be the puppet of the Scottish Nationalists.

Had the pollsters detected that the Tories were more than six points ahead, David Cameron would not have been able to run that campaign. Had we known that the Conservatives were in the lead, much more attention might have been paid to what a majority Tory government would get up to and that might have placed the Conservatives under more intense scrutiny.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/17/opinion-polls-matter-despite-wrong-predictions-general-election

Well OW the people of the UK are finding out Exactly what a Tory majority would do, so to those that voted Tory in May 2015 I hope they are satisfied and pray that those Labour voters that did not listen to the likes of myself and others that went round door stepping I hope they are suffering for there stupidity in voting Tory.

Would it be accurate to describe Tory voters as the smug majority? I think they will become disillusioned by the reality, but that will only help Labour if they attack government strategy at every sensible opportunity. Margaret Beckett has just said as much, reinforcing the views of several correspondents to Cutting Edge.

36.9% of the 66.1% who voted = 24.4% of the electorate. I'd call that a smug minority.

It was refreshing indeed to hear Margaret Beckett rubbishing the ridiculous myth that Labour spending on health and education (which Cameron and Osborne had supported) caused a global financial meltdown. It's just a pity that Labour politicians haven't been saying that at every opportunity since May 2010. It's also a pity that the idiot Liam Byrne left his joke note for the Tories to exploit so ruthlessly.

In regards to the financial crash Ivan the Tories sometimes admit it was the greedy bankers & other times blame the 13 years of Labour term in office for borrowing too much they flip flop, depending on who they are talking too even the ex BoE govener Melvyn King put the blame where it belonged with the greedy bankers, and today I heard on the news that economiists are saying there is another crash on its way and it will be bigger than the last one in 2008.

In Ramsgate yesterday, 'unelectable' Labour under Jeremy Corbyn gained a seat from UKIP on Thanet District Council. The Liberal Democrat candidate received 12 votes.

http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/Labour-triumph-Newington-election/story-28582680-detail/story.html

Nice to hear Ivan, let us hope come the May 2016 local & Mayoral elections Labour voters come out in there hoards to give the Tories a good dose of DIARROHEA.

Today, 288 votes in Thanet.

Tomorrow, the world...?

As usual, I like to resort to cliché, Phil. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

千里之行，始於足下, by the Chinese philosopher Laozi (c 604 bc - c 531 bc) in the Tao Te Ching, chapter 64.

Imitation is the sincerest form of .... something or other.

Phil Hornby wrote:Today, 288 votes in Thanet.

Tomorrow, the world...?    

Got to start some where PH, as OW has said there has to be a First Step or in other words you learn how to walk before you RUN.

I agree that 288 votes in a council election in Ramsgate is only anecdotal evidence of a possible improvement in Labour’s fortunes. However, on a cold January day on the east coast, more Labour supporters turned out than those of any other party, and the ‘moderate’ Lib Dem candidate managed only 12 votes. That was probably him, his wife, his children, his parents, a couple of pals and his next-door-neighbour…….  

Understandably, Labour taking a seat from UKIP on a district council went largely unreported by the media, as did the gain from the Tories in St Austell and the 12.7% increase in vote share in Chorley last October. But let’s turn it round the other way: had Labour lost a council seat on Thursday, the screeching of “it’s all Corbyn’s fault” would have been heard across the length and breadth of the UK.

Still only a very small sample, but those council election results imply a rise in Labour’s fortunes in three different parts of England – Cornwall, Lancashire and Kent. More significant was the increased share of the vote in the parliamentary by-election in Oldham West and Royton, where 17,209 people voted Labour. I think it’s reasonable to at least conclude that Jeremy Corbyn’s election as leader doesn’t appear to be causing the meltdown in the Labour vote which much of the media and right-inclined members of the party have been predicting.

I agree Ivan the right wing Tory press would have torn Jermy Corbyn apart if Labour had lost in those council seats, but because Labour won nothing in the right wing Tory press, I did not know about Labours win in these local elections until I read it on here.

Not forgetting we have increased the Labour membership most of the £3.00 mob joined the Labour party fully, but the Tories are trying to stop money from the Unions going to the Labour party plus the boundary changes that Davy boy will bring in trying by hook or by crook to make sure the Tories are bedded in for a long time.

After the mess that pollsters made of predicting last year’s general election, perhaps their offerings should be treated with a pinch of salt. However, for anyone who is interested, YouGov published two polls this morning:-

LAB 34%, CON 31%, UKIP 17%, LIB DEM 8%, GRN 3%.

REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 50%.

Staggering that 48% of folk still profess to want a right-wing government.

If UKIP suffers a downturn in the event of a 'Stay in ' vote, many of their supporters may consider a return to the Tories, in the hope that they might head further right, emboldened by a tranche of new willing knuckle-draggers...

I would wager that UKIP get as many votes from former Labour voters as they do from ex Tory voters.

Polls, schmolls! The only one that counts is on June 23, and the fact is that unless all Labour voters support the REMAIN option, the Tories will complete their plan to subjugate the working people of Britain totally.

This MSN reader poll is probably not meant to taken seriously, but what if it really is a forecast of the referendum result?


Poll Results

Osborne says Brexit would leave families £4,300 a year worse off: Do you trust him?

0% Definitely. We'd be poorer out of the EU

50% Definitely not. He's playing politics

0% In the main. Leaving the EU will harm trade

50% Not really. The EU holds Britain back

0% Unsure. It's complex, I don't know all the facts