Latest polls

First topic message reminder :

Latest YouGov results are apparently:

Con 30%
Lab 42%
LDem 6%
UKIP 10%

So the drop in Labour's lead to single-digits in a different poll earlier this week was a 'blip', seemingly - the change was within the margin of error and not significant.

This MSN reader poll is probably not meant to taken seriously, but what if it really is a forecast of the referendum result?


Poll Results

Osborne says Brexit would leave families £4,300 a year worse off: Do you trust him?

0% Definitely. We'd be poorer out of the EU

50% Definitely not. He's playing politics

0% In the main. Leaving the EU will harm trade

50% Not really. The EU holds Britain back

0% Unsure. It's complex, I don't know all the facts

An analogy of how things were, and are, 1997 and 2016

The Tories in the run-up to the 1997 genereal election were the oversee'ers of an NHS falling apart, with winter bed crisis, growing queues, growing waiting times. The economy was recovering from recession and Black Wednesday, then there was sleaze and disunity over Europe, not really a lot different from today.

The very big difference between 1997 and now is of course the opinion polls, and therein lies a very divisive and sensetive issue for the Labour Party, between those who fob off the blindingly obvious, and those who see Jeremy Corbyn as a big part of the problem.

I know there are people on here who disagree with me, those who feel the Labour Party has at last returned back to its proper socialist roots with very different ideas and policies, but all the evidence so far suggests Labour is not on any road or path to victory, indeed quite the opposite.

In an absolutelly terrible terrible month for the government in which a minister resigns, accusing the government of unfairness, and with the party fighting over Europe, Dodgy Dave and tax havens, junior doctors strikes and a dying steel industry the best any poll can come up with is a flimsy 2 or 3 point lead, which incidentally has now been extinguished.

In the run up to the 1997 general election the Labour Party was on an average of 18 points ahead in the polls, which as we know resulted in the biggest Labour majority in history.

Many people disregard opinion polls or fob them off at their peril, and allthough many polls are not accurate, they do give at least an indication of public feeling, yesterday ICM published two polls, one conducted by telephone, the other was an online poll, the Tory 5 point lead was the same in both polls.

How can a government, which should be very unpopular, be consistently aheads in all opinion polls, except very briefly when things just could not seem to have got any worse for the Tories.

The answer is The Alternative

Witchfinder - the problem, surely, is not Mr Corbyn but the whole Nazi notion 'get a new fuhrer and all will be well'. Under Blair the Party was finally taken over by careerist politicians without principle, and since they would find it very difficult to get themselves such a soft number elsewhere, our problem is to restore democracy with the richmen's press screaming about ;hard left plots' if we try to find people who care about others instead.

The new default answer to the most successful Labour government in history is "careerist politicians", but is not the real truth that they simply appealed to the electorate ?, and thats the simple reason for the landslide victory, and re-election.

If the new "socialist" direction of the Labour Party is the right direction, then why are no polls reflecting this fact ?, and as for been unprincipled, the years of Blair and Brown did more for ordinary people since Atlee in the aftermath of the Second World War, who gave us the NHS which now been dissmantled.

What is it going to take to persuade grass roots Labour people, that though they may be well principled, and though they believe their cause to be right and just, not enough of the electorate will agree with them.

I agree with much of what you say witchfinder : it is not the natural Labour voters that need to be attracted - it is those who are not instinctively in that corner.

But if opposition is more palatable to the diehards than those whom they so love to label as those dreadful tainted 'Blairites', then who are we to argue...?

Phil Hornby wrote:-
it is not the natural Labour voters that need to be attracted

It is if the Labour canvass returns from last year’s general election are anything to go by. Many working class voters told us that “the main parties are all the same” (they can’t say that now) and either didn’t vote or opted for UKIP which, to my surprise, did at least as much damage to Labour as it did to the Tories.

Everybody knows that the credit crunch of 2008 was caused by greedy American Bankers - not all of them actually in America of course, since many worked out of London. Which is how Gordon Brown became the fall guy. It happened on his watch, and the Captain goes down with the ship, right? The result was a re-play of the Attlee government being replaced by a Tory revival because recovery from WW2 seemed to be taking too long. They did their best, but the former enemy, Germany, had been able to concentrate all its efforts on rebuilding, without distractions like the collapse of the British Empire.

The Tories, as always, continued to believe they could do just as they liked, and exchanged power with the Labour Party several times, ultimately becoming so obviously poisonous by 1977 that Tony Blair was able to achieve a seamless takeover, halted only by his ultimate hubris in the Iraq invasion, for which he can never be forgiven - as remains the case with the unforgiveable coalition of Lib-Dems with the class enemy.

Jeremy Corbyn is a genuine descendant of the Attlee government, and represents the only real chance of Britain getting back to a welfare system that actually cares about people, as opposed to profit.

Or we can choose profit, and Devil take the hindmost. Big decision.

The policies may be right - but the frontman isn't.

Whether we like it or not, the public is influenced by how appealing the presenter of an idea happens to be perceived.

How many times in our working lives have we experienced a more talented individual losing out (eg)in the promotion stakes to somebody who could produce a compelling halo effect at key moments?

Beating the Tories - with all the advantages they have - will not be done by principle and righteousness alone. There needs to be some guile and political fancy footwork if an alternative option is to convince a politician-wary public.

Jeremy Corbyn is a genuine descendant of the Attlee government, and represents the only real chance of Britain getting back to a welfare system that actually cares about people, as opposed to profit.

I do think you are right - and I do think people may be almost ready for that approach - I believe the days of 'politics as usual' may be coming to an end - or else the planet may be doomed - if we allow ourselves to continue to be governed by the forces of greed and selfishness I very much fear for the future

James Gillray, Britannia between Scylla and Charybdis (1793)


Being between Scylla and Charybdis is an idiom deriving from Greek mythology, meaning "having to choose between two evils". Several other idioms, such as "on the horns of a dilemma", "between the devil and the deep blue sea", and "between a rock and a hard place" express the same meaning.

witchfinder wrote:The new default answer to the most successful Labour government in history is "careerist politicians", but is not the real truth that they simply appealed to the electorate ?, and thats the simple reason for the landslide victory, and re-election.

If the new "socialist" direction of the Labour Party is the right direction, then why are no polls reflecting this fact ?, and as for been unprincipled, the years of Blair and Brown did more for ordinary people since Atlee in the aftermath of the Second World War, who gave us the NHS which now been dissmantled.

What is it going to take to persuade grass roots Labour people, that though they may be well principled, and though they believe their cause to be right and just, not enough of the electorate will agree with them.

The 1945 Government was full of dedicated socialists and trade-unionists, and as far as I know no-one ever called them careerists. Are you talking about Labour governments in some other country, or what? The successive tory governments since Thatcher's election, backed by the media, have convinced all the mugs that a tory fuhrer like Blair somehow matters. None of them do - only getting out there and arguing with the brainwashed.

witchfinder referred to:-
"the most successful Labour government in history"

That depends on your definition of ‘successful’. I’d give that title to the Attlee government, because the changes which it made endured for decades until the Thatcherite bandits started dismantling the entire state. Attlee only lost power because of the quirky nature of our FPTP system; Labour received more votes than the Tories in 1951 and more votes than it had won in the landslide of 1945.

The second most successful Labour governments were those of Harold Wilson. They saw the abolition of capital punishment and theatre censorship, the legalisation of abortion and homosexuality and the establishment of the Open University, all of which have proved to be permanent changes.

Blair and Brown introduced plenty of measures which helped the less well off at the time, including working tax credits, along with a minimum income guarantee and various ‘perks’ for pensioners. They presided over the longest period of economic growth in the UK for at least 200 years, but received no credit for it when the Tories and the media absurdly but successfully blamed them for causing a global credit crunch. What has endured? The minimum wage (although it is being constantly undermined by the Tories) and the fragile peace in Northern Ireland.

However, most of what Blair and Brown did has been easy for the Tories to unpick. I can’t help feeling that those 13 years, with those massive majorities in 1997 and 2001, were largely wasted, especially once Blair became interested in pursuing disastrous overseas adventures, and that the only real achievement was in keeping the Tories out of power for a while. Little was done to reduce the drastic increase in inequality which had characterised the Thatcher years.

Success shouldn't be defined by how many years you stay in office, but rather by what you do with that power while you have it.

We seem to be drifting a long way from those 'latest polls'.......

Success shouldn't be defined by how many years you stay in office, but rather by what you do with that power while you have it.

Nicely put, Ivan - if we judged the current legislation by these criteria I'm sure the polls would be making Mr Cameron more than nervous

In terms of "Success" for Blair and Labour, I was thinking of the historic Parliamentary majority, the number of Labour MPs and how even places like my own constituency actualy elected a Labour MP for the first time in history.

The electoral success and achievement of Labour in 1997 had never been equalled before, and there is certainly no signs of it happening again anytime again soon, indeed far from it.

We did many great things in the years of New Labour, not least rescuing the NHS from 18 years of utter neglect, and as a realist I accept not everything Blair did was popular with traditional Labour supporters, in particular taking us into foreign war (Iraq).

I can kind of accept and understand that Corbyn and his disciples and followers are true to what they believe, I am convinced that Corbyn is a truthful, principled man, far more honest than Cameron could ever hope to be, but Mr Corbyn is not a realist, and neither are any of his followers.

At one point I could have been prepared to vote for Labour with Corbyn at the helm, but after been branded, insulted, vilified and labelled by the new left, I am now bitter; When I see the clown Livingstone refer to long standing Labour Party members and supporters as "sad Blairites" I am determined never to vote Labour again, or unless such people are gone.

The really really sad part about all this is the fact that once again the old socialist left are ensuring eternal Tory government, and thats really very sad, its sad for the poor, sad for them on low incomes, sad for people who cannot aford a mortgage, and its sad for our public services, education and NHS.

Once again the Tories are on a political dogmatic crusade, and there is no effective opposition - back to the future - its the 1980s repeating, THANKS very much to all the Ostriches.

You can fool some  people some of the time,
and some people all of the time -
But you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

The plain fact is that after the disaster of a Kinnock election, and untimely death of John Smith in 1994,  
Tony Blair conned the Labour Party into believing that he was a Socialist, fit to lead it into Government.  Accordingly, when the John Major administration collapsed into sleaze and back-stabbing, Blair was a shoo-in.

In 13 years, little was done to remedy Thatcherite laws on Trade Unions, or curb the power of the City of London.  The history books will record Blair as the PM who took Britain to war in the middle East, and current memory is of a politician who played both sides of the street with a view to personal enrichment.

Now there is a genuine Socialist heading the Labour Party, people are bemused and baffled at the universal condemnation from Right Wing Capitalism.  Quelle surprise!

Perhaps easier for us all to just roll over and play dead until another pseudo-Tory can be found to restore comforting feelings about an "electable" Labour Party.

‘The Economist’ has an interactive poll tracker on the EU referendum which is updated twice a week. This is what it is currently telling us, with 51 days to go:-

Remain is on 42%, Leave on 40%.

Those favouring Remain are:-
Lib Dem voters (by 64% to 20%)
Labour voters (by 60% to 25%)
Scotland (by 58% to 29%)
18-24 year olds (by 53% to 27%)
Professional/administrative workers (by 51% to 36%)
Wales (by 45% to 31%)
Women (by 41% to 37%)
North of England (42% to 41%)

Those favouring Leave are:-
UKIP voters (by 94% to 2%)
Those aged 60+ (by 59% to 29%)
Skilled/unskilled workers and unemployed (by 51% to 27%)
Tory voters (by 48% to 35%)
South of England (by 41% to 39%)

Men are equally divided (43% for each side).

If you wish to see how things change, check this link every few days:-
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/04/daily-chart-11

A more detailed breakdown of voting intentions for the EU referendum:-


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkB7nVvWEAAHyJT.jpg

The possible alliance for Brexit of Tories and working class voters, suggested by that poll, doesn't bode well for the outcome.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkBp-yIWsAAlAEg.jpg

My completely uninformed guess is that , of those voting, the Remains will win the day by a margin in the order of 53% to 47%.

Anyone else fancy a prediction?

An early hostage to fortune. Brave man!

I predict that of all the British people legally entitled to cast a vote, 75% won't trouble themselves so to do, and the outcome will be decided by the number of self-interested who grab an opportunity to protest the workings of the current regime.

We shall know three weeks from today, during which period of time the debate is likely to get quite heated, especially if the politicians accept Phil's near photo-finish prognostication.

"Never make predictions, especially about the future." (Casey Stengel)

Or if you prefer:-

"I never make predictions - and I never will." (Paul Gascoigne)

My willingness to make a prediction ( guess ) is based upon my faith in my gut instincts and pig-headed lack of embarrassment of making a fool of myself.

I would have felt that more than 25% will vote on this occasion, although too many will fail to 'see the point' and stay at home.

On this occasion I shall be doing the decent thing - but by postal vote, as I shall be away from Hornby Towers on 23 June enjoying a modest little break .

The dreadful thought is that, if the nutters vote out, we shall be crawling back on far worse terms as soon as the older nutters die off of the results of their stupidity.

EU referendum: British public wrong about nearly everything

In a survey of 1,000 people by Ipsos MORI, respondents claimed that, on average, 15% of the UK population are EU immigrants. That would be 10.5m people. The correct figure is 3.5m (5%). Those who intend to vote for Brexit put the figure at 20%.

15% believe at least one Euro-myth, including bans on barmaids showing too much cleavage, and the forcible renaming of Bombay Mix to Mumbai mix. Neither is true.

84% of people think the UK is in the top three contributors to the EU budget. 23% think it is the single biggest. In fact the UK is in fourth place, behind Germany, France and Italy.

14% of people think that 30% of the UK’s child benefit budget is sent to children living overseas. The correct figure is 0.3%.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-british-public-wrong-about-nearly-everything-survey-shows-a7074311.html

Can you see why some of us have never thought that referendums are a good idea?  

https://cuttingedge2.forumotion.co.uk/t837-is-it-undemocratic-to-be-opposed-to-an-eu-referendum

All the data & statistics that are now available to a nation that displays a general antipathy to those things are now just confusing matters.

Personally, I will confuse to a certain amount of mental inertia. I'm fed up with it. I'm fatigued by it all and so I find it difficult to see how polls can be accurate, if they ever can.

I just want it all to stop now.

You can't be tired of the campaign already - it only started in January. Possibly the boredom threshold was pre-calculated to leave the field clear for the Party Faithful on polling day.

Anyone else noticed that in the latest two opinion polls which put Brexit with a big lead there are now no undecided voters in Britain........According to these polls everyone knows how they are going to vote on the 23rd...........

People feel free to tell lies to Pollsters - teasing them can be such fun.

Listening to vox pop radio interviews you can hear people evidently formulating an opinion as they speak. I have no idea how that might be recorded in a Poll.

oftenwrong wrote:Listening to vox pop radio interviews you can hear people evidently formulating an opinion as they speak.  I have no idea how that might be recorded in a Poll.

 'Brexit', obviously!  

There’s nowt as queer as folk.

A ComRes poll for ‘The Daily Mirror’ on 12 May found strong support for almost all of the policies in Labour’s leaked manifesto. Then, when the respondents were asked if those policies made them more or less likely to vote Labour, 34% said more likely and 47% said less likely!

When asked who was running the better election campaign, 42% said the Tories, 20% said Labour. So apparently hiding from the voters, being too scared to debate with Jeremy Corbyn, and endlessly repeating “best possible deal” and “strong and stable” constitutes “running a good campaign”. I despair.  

When asked which party they liked, 46% said Labour and 38% said the Tories. But thanks to the two-year character assassination of Corbyn by the media, the disloyalty of so many Labour MPs, and the Maybot’s appeal to Brexit and former UKIP voters, she is by far the more popular of the two leaders. The three latest polls have the Tories on 46-48%, Labour on 30-32%, the Lib Dems on 8-10% and UKIP on 5-7%. When you remember that Labour had 30.4% of the vote in 2015, the increased Tory share is largely due to the collapse of the UKIP vote. May’s government is so right-wing and pro-Brexit that it’s made UKIP largely redundant.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk

I know - fed up with grinding my teeth - wish I knew a way to make this all come out OK

Chas Peeps wrote (on another thread):-

In 1955, over 95% of voters chose Conservative or Labour. In 2015 it had fallen to 65%.

We may now be seeing a dramatic reversal of that trend. Here are three of the latest polls:-
Panelbase: Tories 47, Labour 33, Lib Dems 7, UKIP 5.
YouGov: Tories 45, Labour 32, Lib Dems 8, UKIP 6.
Ipsos Mori: Tories 49, Labour 34, Lib Dems 7, UKIP 2.

These polls suggest that around 80% of voters are supporting either the Tories or Labour. We know that the Tories under May have moved so far to the right that they have almost put UKIP out of business. We can also see that the Lib Dem revival trumpeted after the Richmond by-election is just not happening; I suspect that they will recover very slowly by winning and then retaining seats in by-elections, as they did once before, starting with their famous win at Orpington in 1962. In this election, the voters may be coming to realise that they have a stark choice - the Tories under May or Labour under Corbyn - and therefore all other parties (in England and Wales) could be 'squeezed'.

The average Brit is no more likely to disclose their true voting intentions to a pollster than to reveal the precise amount they earn. If cornered, I respond "Church of England".

The gap seems to be closing. Tonight's poll for 'The Sunday Times':-
YouGov: Tories 44, Labour 35, Lib Dems 9, UKIP 3.

Where there's life, there may be hope.

(looking for the emoji for 'pray')

Let's hope you're right, Ivan - I'm beginning to think I could do with a rest

UK Polling Report is displaying two new surveys tonight:-
Kantar: Tories 42, Labour 34, Lib Dems 9, UKIP 4.
YouGov: Tories 43, Labour 38, Lib Dems 10, UKIP 4.

With two weeks to go, this could get interesting. It would probably help if Labour kept Diane Abbott under lock and key and gave plenty of exposure to good performers such as Keir Starmer, Rebecca Long-Bailey and Barry Gardiner.

I hate to say it, but Diane Abbot isn't impressive - she may be a lovely person and a great constituency MP - but smooth she ain't.

Polls are as you say looking interesting

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBGsgPIXkAACkrQ.jpg

This could be getting interesting! If these estimates are close to the reality of what happens on 8 June, we could in a similar situation to 2010 (Tories 307, Labour 258, Lib Dems 57). Only this time it would be the SNP who are the kingmakers, and I don't somehow see Nicola Sturgeon and Angus Robertson aligning themselves with the Tories.....

Difficult to see any party considering another "Coalition", so the next Parliament will survive by "horse-trading" ad hoc voting alliances.

Might keep 'em honest for a change.

One of the noteable features of General Election 2017 is the rising vote share for the Big Two - up from only 67% in 2015 to over 80% in the latest polls. UKIP vote share is collapsing, Green vote share has halved and Lib Dem vote share has lead boots. The Tories have turned into Bluekip having absorbed UKIP's poison and Brexit mania. Labour is pulling Green votes after adopting 2015 Green policies like a fracking ban, £10 minimum wage, rail nationalisation and Robin Hood (Tobin) Tax on financial transactions.

I still think that nothing short of a political miracle is needed to propel Labour to being the single biggest party after June 8th but all credit to Corbyn and most of the Labour campaign team - they really are running a very effective campaign which is a credit to the Party. Anything other than a reduction in the 2015 Tory majority will be a disaster for this country for more than a generation to come. If we end up with at least two Green Party MPs and a hung Parliament, my prayers will have been answered.

They don't like it up 'em, Sir !  
(Though they well deserve what they are hopefully about to get)