Most likely result of the general election in 2015?

First topic message reminder :

Looking at the current state of UK politics what do you all think is the most likely outcome of the next General Election?
 
Personally I think Labour will win but not with a out right majority (as it currently stands at least).
 
I had a quick look and couldn't see another thread like this but if there is my apologies.

Ouch, that is not many in today's political climate is it not? how is the UKIP support in your area at the moment may I ask? as that may erode those few votes quite easily may it not?

Sharon.
It appears apart from the usual greetings you get when you join the forum no-one has welcomed you, so may I be the first to welcome you to the forum, it is a very nice forum and the posters/members are friendly. You can have some good debates on all subjects and it is certainly a no go tory area,

stuart torr wrote:Ouch, that is not many in today's political climate is it not? how is the UKIP support in your area at the moment may I ask? as that may erode those few votes quite easily may it not?

Southampton Council is currently a UKIP-free zone, but they did run us close in a couple of wards this year (we elect by thirds). Both those wards are in Southampton Itchen.

However, the other factor in the slim majority that JD got, was the student vote - they voted in their masses for the LDs - it is worth noting that the LDs have won no seats in the City since 2010, and we have no LD Cllrs left here. It will be interesting to see where those votes will go.

stuart torr wrote:Sharon.
It appears apart from the usual greetings you get when you join the forum no-one has welcomed you, so may I be the first to welcome you to the forum, it is a very nice forum and the posters/members are friendly. You can have some good debates on all subjects and it is certainly a no go tory area,

Thanks Stuart

We must have posted at the same time Sharon, as I posted you a message which is the last on the previous page.
UKIP will head for the student vote Sharon, so coming up to the G.E.
concentrate on their votes if you can, if you have younger members.

The student population is concentrated in 5 wards - 1 ward in Itchen, 2 in Test and the 2 wards that are in Romsey and Southampton North.
We have an active Labour Club at Southampton Uni, who always help out

Does being a cllr take up most of your time then Sharon? what with all the meetings you have to go to, and your homework for those meetings?
I know when I was a shop steward, it took a lot of my time up getting the papers ready for the meetings with management.

That is good that you have that then Sharon, as UKIP will not be able to get their size tens in so easy,

Sharon. Welcome to Cutting Edge.

One of our members, Redflag, is so dedicated to Labour that she travelled all the way from Scotland to Eastleigh by coach to help out in the by-election there last year:-

https://cuttingedge2.forumotion.co.uk/t798-redflag-reporting-from-eastleigh

Nice to have a new member Ivan? introduced the lady well I do believe.

Ivan wrote:Sharon. Welcome to Cutting Edge.  

One of our members, Redflag, is so dedicated to Labour that she travelled all the way from Scotland to Eastleigh by coach to help out in the by-election there last year:-

https://cuttingedge2.forumotion.co.uk/t798-redflag-reporting-from-eastleigh

I read the thread - I was virtually living out of the Eastleigh office during the by election - I live less than a mile from Eastleigh

it is certainly a no go tory area

Anyone is allowed to join and post here, but their comments mustn't be racist, homophobic or sexist. That does mean that BNP/EDL supporters, and a lot of UKIP supporters, will soon fall foul of those rules (which are dictated by the site owners), but until they do so they can contribute to this forum if they wish.

Our two most prominent past Tory members were eventually banned after numerous transgressions of the rules (and lots of warnings), not because they were Tories.

stuart torr wrote:Does being a cllr take up most of your time then Sharon? what with all the meetings you have to go to, and your homework for those meetings?
I know when I was a shop steward, it took a lot of my time up getting the papers ready for the meetings with management.

I thought I'd replied to this... going scatty...

I'm a full-time cllr. As 1 of 28 Labour cllrs, I sit on 2 council committees, I'm also Labour group leader on Hampshire Fire & Rescue Authority. I spend more time on casework than I do at meetings - I'm sole Labour cllr in my ward.

I'm a fairly quick reader, so I usually read my paperwork at least twice before a meeting.

Now why are you going scatty Sharon love, it is only a minor forum after all ahahah.

stuart torr wrote:Now why are you going scatty Sharon love, it is only a minor forum after all ahahah.

I've been busy reading here, and on Twitter....

Oh, catching up on the other threads? by the way Sharon most people on the forums I go on just call me stu OK.

Fairy nuff Stu

Have you learnt anything about us by reading the other threads Sharon?

Southampton was firmly based upon dockyard activities, together with industrial firms such as Pirelli and Ford (at Eastleigh) some years ago, but has now become almost gentrified by a better distribution of local prosperity, augmented by tourism.

It was a no-go area for Tory politicians, but I wonder whether that can continue as residents come to feel more prosperous.

It still is at this moment in time OW, BUT ONLY JUST SO TO SPEAK, as the labour majority is only 186 at the last GE.

The bookies thought that UKIP would win the PCC by-election in South Yorkshire yesterday, but the result was: Labour 74,060, UKIP 46,883, Tory 18,536, English Democrat 8,583. (The Lib Dems did not put up a candidate.)

Apparently UKIP asked for a recount, a request which was refused. One UKIP moron on Twitter called it “a close result” – Labour majority of 27,177.  

Does this tell us anything about the likely result of the general election in May? Probably not, except perhaps that UKIP seems to do more damage to the Tories than it does to Labour.

Sharon wrote:

stuart torr wrote:Ouch, that is not many in today's political climate is it not? how is the UKIP support in your area at the moment may I ask? as that may erode those few votes quite easily may it not?

Southampton Council is currently a UKIP-free zone, but they did run us close in a couple of wards this year (we elect by thirds).  Both those wards are in Southampton Itchen.

However, the other factor in the slim majority that JD got, was the student vote - they voted in their masses for the LDs - it is worth noting that the LDs have won no seats in the City since 2010, and we have no LD Cllrs left here.  It will be interesting to see where those votes will go.

Hi Sharon remember me from Eaxstleigh ? how are you and how is everyone in Eastleigh/ Southhampton I used to go out with Louise Barter and I was the one that travelled from Glasgow to Eastlegh I was sorry we did not win the seat. Let us hope we do really well at the 2015 general election and wipe the evil Tories out on there ASS in 2015. I am still in touch with Beryl from Winchester via e-mail so she tells me how Ted and the rest of them are.

Sharon wrote:I read the thread - I was virtually living out of the Eastleigh office during the by election - I live less than a mile from Eastleigh

I hope you are well Sharon your council work must take up a lot of your time. CE is a great forum I was sorry I could not get my hands on a PC so that I could have kept the boarders on here up to date with what was going on during the Eastlegh by-election. I have often wondered why the people returned a Lib-Dem back into the seat of Eastleigh have you any ideas why??

Redflag wrote:

Sharon wrote:I read the thread - I was virtually living out of the Eastleigh office during the by election - I live less than a mile from Eastleigh

I hope you are well Sharon your council work must take up a lot of your time. CE is a great forum I was sorry I could not get my hands on a PC so that I could have kept the boarders on here up to date with what was going on during the Eastlegh by-election. I have often wondered why the people returned a Lib-Dem back into the seat of Eastleigh have you any ideas why??

Hi Red, yes I do remember you

The LDs have a stranglehold on Eastleigh, and have done for quite a few years

Beryl is one of our SWACs (Southampton Women Against Cuts) she helps out in our office, along with other Southampton ladies.

Got to disappear now - I'm off out on #Labourdoorstep!

Fantastic result in south yorks, but you will not expect the tories getting back in in this current climate.

PCC by-election in South Yorkshire yesterday:
Labour 74,060, UKIP 46,883, Tory 18,536, English Democrat 8,583.

Voter apathy 85%.

Low-levels of voting favour the fringe parties, and in today's Independent the Editorial Leader fears not a hung parliament next May but an ungovernable one if either Tory or Labour try to form a minority administration supported by a rag-tag and bobtail of Greens, Reds and Regionals.

Hell that was low level OW, but I think it will change for the actual G.E. it normally does for the big day.

I've seen a few polls that say that the SNP are going to take lots of seats, however, out of 59 Constituencies, we have 51 completed selections, but the SNP have NONE

They might take some actually in scotland Sharon, but nowhere else love, glad to see you back, been enjoying yourself?

I've been working today - canvassing this morning, then catching up with casework this afternoon, and keeping an eye on our 2 PPC selections

The SNP are leaving their selections very late - I can understand that they left it alone before the IndyRef, but I was fully expecting a rash of them by mid November, but there's been no news whatsoever.

Sounds strange Sharon does it not?

stuart torr wrote:Sounds strange Sharon does it not?

That it does, Stu!

If you look at Wales, Plaid have selected 33 out of 40, and we've got 37 in place.

SNP NONE, VERY strange all round, something is afoot.

stuart torr wrote:SNP NONE, VERY strange all round, something is afoot.

I agree Stuart accoding to the figures SNP will take most of the Westminister seats which is depressing because it would leave the Labour party without a majority gov't, then Scotland will go to hell in a basket if we are left to a SNP gov't as they are quite right wing in there thinking, in there white paper brought out before the Referendum the only tax cut in it was a 3p cut in Corporation tax for big business, then we have the SNP saying if the UK takes us out of the EU which the SNP do not want we would be stuck with the TTIP treaty between the EU & USA which would EFF-UP our public services and the private sector allowing big USA Corporation to do what the want at there leisure.

Sorry late getting back to you Redflag, but didn't sleep at all last night, and caught up on some since.
Does not sound too good at all for labour does it? they seem stuck between the rock and the hearthplace.

Hi bobby nice to see you, to be honest yes they have, but it is us they have let down is it not?

Bobby you are spot on I do not like the Labour party here in Scotland that is why I come down south to help the Labour party in England because it is always England that votes Tory Scotland votes either SNP or Labour but I am worried about May 2015.

You have every right to be Redflag i'm afraid, as davy is planning his G.E campaign just right, whereas ed is a newcomer to it is he not.

Another Labour MP standing down - can Labour hold Edinburgh South West?

Hello Sharon love, what's bloody happening to them? have they not got the guts to take them on or what?