Most likely result of the general election in 2015?

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Looking at the current state of UK politics what do you all think is the most likely outcome of the next General Election?
 
Personally I think Labour will win but not with a out right majority (as it currently stands at least).
 
I had a quick look and couldn't see another thread like this but if there is my apologies.

Would be a bit hard to vote for them if they have no heads would it not? but at least they are wise.

If the polls in Scotland are to be believed, a sudden transfer of elected MPs from Labour to SNP must inevitably favour the Tory Party's chances of forming a government at Westminster.

Does the Law of Unintended Consequences intervene once more?

And Scotland, with its nationalistic pride, will surely be left wondering : 'what HAVE we done?'.

I'm up there on 7 & 8 May - I'll ask 'em...

They will have voted Labour just this once to get Cameron out of number ten Phil.

Lynda Chalker was the minister for overseas development in John Major's government. When she lost her seat in Wallasey in the 1992 election, Major put her in the House of Lords and she carried on doing the same job, despite having been rejected by the electorate.

Polls are suggesting that one likely result of this general election is that Esther McVey will lose her seat in Wirral West. If Cameron does worm his way back into office, what are the odds on Lady McVey carrying on in her role as IDS's sidekick from 'the other place'?

I would say an odds on certainty Ivan, if I was offering the odds I would say 1/4.

As the numbers seem to be stacking up it would very hard for Cameron to form a coalition government with out the help of all parties except SNP and Labour......
Cameron has been goading the Scots into voting for SNP rather than Labour, and it seems to be working, in the knowledge that the SNP would demand another referendum.....
If one is given this would no doubt reult in a YES vote. Exit 55 seats from the HoC making it far easier Cameron to get his majority in the future.....

Ivan wrote:

Polls are suggesting that one likely result of this general election is that Esther McVey will lose her seat in Wirral West. If Cameron does worm his way back into office, what are the odds on Lady McVey carrying on in her role as IDS's sidekick from 'the other place'?

Historical footnote:

In 1880 the Tory Benjamin Disraeli resigned as PM following a Liberal victory at the general election and became leader of the Opposition from the House of Lords.

Seems a common practice does it not OW?

Thank you Ivan at least in that seat that I did my little bit I will have helped the UK get rid of one Tory BITCH, I will be going through to Carlisle tomorrow to give Lee Sherriff a hand I was supposed to go through over the week-end but Illness stopped me in my track I am feeling much better now so have my arrangements in place for tomorrow.

With four days to go, we know that the most likely result of the election is a hung parliament. Electoral Calculus is now predicting there is only a 4% chance of a majority Labour government and a 4% chance of a majority Tory government.

So what, if that's correct, will happen immediately after the election? As the incumbent PM, Cameron is entitled to the first chance to form a government. If there are enough Lib Dems left, and if they and the DUP are prepared to at least give him a 'confidence and supply' arrangement, he might have enough support to cling on to power. However, if Cameron cannot cobble together a majority in that way, the precedent is that he should resign (as Heath did in March 1974) and Ed Miliband should be given the chance to form a minority government, regardless of whether he has made any arrangements with other parties.

I think we should let the scumbags sweat for a month or two, to teach them who's boss.   Or what about an SNP Government?   The tories (and the Sun) have backed them hard enough!

Please do talk seriously Penderyn.

If you read Ivans post hard enough Penderyn, you will see more of the truth in that will you not?

Thank you bobby for telling it like really is. apparently SNP activists are going round telling voters in Scotland that this G.E is a stepping stone to another referendum for Independence for Scotland that is what she will ask for for supporting a minority Labour gov't. Do not under estimate the sneaky SNP bobby they will do or say anything to get WHAT THEY WANT they are not called TARTAN Tories for nothing.

If the Tories get more seats than Labour, get ready for a Very British Coup

Extracts from an article by Owen Jones:-

Long ago, most of the media and other powerful forces in British society decided that the prospect of Miliband as prime minister was simply unacceptable. His leadership represents a modest departure from three decades of consensus established by Thatcher’s governments, but any departure is deemed intolerable. The highly personalised 'Get Ed' campaign has taken a sinister turn. The Tories and their media allies are now declaring that a government led by Miliband would be illegitimate. A very British coup of our own.

Our parliamentary system is quite straightforward. A government needs to be able to muster the support of the majority of sitting MPs in order to be legitimate. If it can survive a vote of no confidence, and most MPs back its Queen’s Speech, then its democratic legitimacy is unimpeachable. But the Tories and their allies are arguing otherwise. They have told newspapers they will “declare victory” if the party wins “most seats and votes”, and that Labour will have no “legitimacy” if it is the second party in terms of seats and needs to rely on the SNP. When Theresa May and ‘The Mail on Sunday’ suggested that an SNP-backed Labour government would represent “the worst crisis since the abdication” – eclipsing the minor blip of the Nazi conquest of Europe – it was rightly mocked on Twitter. But this may well prove a mild foretaste of what is to come.

For the whole article:-
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/owen-jones-if-tories-get-more-seats-labour-get-ready-very-british-coup

stuart torr wrote:Please do talk seriously Penderyn.

I'm serious.   Without a vote of no confidence the scum can posture for a month or so without doing any harm, then be given the order of the boot when they've shown themselves up as what they are.

The Tories will play every dirty trick in the book to get back into power on the 7th May, I just hope the people of the UK know that because some could believe there LIES just like they did when the Tories came out with "The Mess Labour Left".

The problem is the Tories have not sold off enough of the UKs public services to there donors & friends which has also been there plan since May 2010.

That is their plan Redflag the minute they get back in power if they do,but I pray that they do not or I will be posting my last weeks alive on here, and how I will try and enjoy it as much as possible before donating my body to science,they can do what they want with it and take owt useful.

Penderyn when I said talk seriously, I was talking of you talking of a SNP Government!! Scotland ruling England.

Remember this on Friday – it could be very relevant if the election result is as messy as everyone seems to be predicting.

The Cabinet Manual sets out the main laws, rules and conventions affecting the conduct and operation of government. It’s as close as the UK gets to a set of constitutional guidelines in the situation of a hung parliament, and it’s very clear:-

Para 2.12.  Parliaments with no overall majority in the House of Commons

"Where an election does not result in an overall majority for a single party, the incumbent government remains in office unless and until the prime minister tenders his or her resignation and the government’s resignation to the sovereign.  An incumbent government is entitled to wait until the new parliament has met to see if it can command the confidence of the House of Commons, but is expected to resign if it becomes clear that it is unlikely to be able to command that confidence and there is a clear alternative."  
In other words – if Cameron is the leader of the largest party, he’ll have to prove that he can put together a governing majority in the Commons, or it is his constitutional obligation to resign and allow the person next best placed person to form a government – Ed Miliband – to become PM.  

But Cameron has other ideas. According to Osborne, he would cling on to power until it was proven that another government could be formed. That might mean the Tories – if they lack a workable majority – putting down a Queen’s Speech when the House of Commons next meets (no later than 4 June) with no expectation of passing it.

http://labourlist.org/2015/05/cameron-is-trying-to-rewrite-the-constitution-to-become-a-downing-street-squatter/

Which I suppose is where Penderyn's scenario comes in

That it all depends on the tory SNP boatlady?

QUOTE: "That might mean the Tories – if they lack a workable majority – putting down a Queen’s Speech when the House of Commons next meets (no later than 4 June) with no expectation of passing it."

The one thing that can be said with certainty amid all the uncertainty of a hung parliament is that Buckingham Palace is determined to maintain a distance from the political process and to keep the Queen well away from the discussions about who is in the strongest position to command the confidence of the Commons.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8667820.stm

The Queen will have her advisors though OW, to keep her up to date with what is going on in the elections and know what to expect,ie whether it is a resignation from Cameron, and therefore sending her cars to invite the next in charge to form the next government.

That it all depends on the tory SNP boatlady?


First of all, it all depends on the voters - if enough get out and vote Labour, there might still be a last minute swing

I predicted quite a biggish Labour majority.   It looks as if that can't happen, but I think the likelihood of a tory majority very small, which is why I want the progressive majority to hang Murdoch's pigdogs up to dry for a while, till all this bilge about denying particular groups of British voters a voice in government blows away in the wind and we have time to think about sensible alternatives.    If England does have a panic rush back to kicking the poor and sick I think the UK really is finished, but I can't make out much sign of it right now.   We shall see.

I just hope you are spot on Penderyn, I also agree about England could put Davy boy back into No10 if they do they will find out that the last 5years where a picnic compared to the next 5years.

If God is listening to me he will help us to get a Labour gov't, when you think all of those that have suffered under the Tories we should have a Labour gov't on Friday morning.

First time that I have prayed too for many years,as my life as begun to get poorer already,5 more years of it I just could not take.

I think there will be Millions like yourself stuart, then it will only leave us with one thing to do is REVELUTOIN

Yes Redflag, got a letter from the DWP, regarding my disability living allowance, which I supposed to have indefinitely. Not anymore because it is being replaced by the P.I.P. something independant payment, which it says if you are on disability payment for life, which technically speaking I am, I have nothing to worry about, but if I do not fill in the form for personal independance payment, my disability payment stops? so which part of the letter is right? yet this comes in this year for myself, so if I do not fill in the form I lose £75 a week,if I do fill in the form they may pay me less anyway,as I have to go before a board and they judge my condition.

Stu
You should get some help to fill in the PIP form - or at least do a bit of research online to make sure you identify the aspects of your disability that will get you through.
The point scoring system is different than for DLA and it's easy to make a mistake and lose your benefit.
If you have a CAB or a welfare rights advice office nearby, I suggest you make an appointment with them.

Stu,

The big danger is that your disability allowance being removed before you are assessed for PIP. When I applied it took more than three months before I received a letter with a selection of appointment dates. I phoned immediately since the possible dates were mid-January 2014, the letter was dated 31 January and it arrived in February. My assessment eventually took place in July and I was told of the results in November. The payments were back-dated but it was still more than a year after the application. The decision is valid for 5 years then I will need another assessment.

sorry.

Ah well - Murdoch rules, okay? The only good that has come out of this brainwashed idiocy is the hammering of the Personal Pledgers. I think that the important thing for the Labour Party to do now is to keep their heads while the Tories split, rather than accepting the bullshit notion that the people rejected 'left' notions. I am very sorry that Mr Milliband accepted this football-manager nonsense that he must resign: it is part of the whole footling fuhrer-prinzip absurdity.

One immediate result of the General election 2015 is the splitting headache I have after trying desperately to drown my sorrows last night

Ed resigning his leadership of the party too? who will lead Labour now?