Most likely result of the general election in 2015?

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Looking at the current state of UK politics what do you all think is the most likely outcome of the next General Election?
 
Personally I think Labour will win but not with a out right majority (as it currently stands at least).
 
I had a quick look and couldn't see another thread like this but if there is my apologies.

Not at all g.w. I know how the said Reeves is going to make the unemployed take their job when it is offered or lose benefits, and she is going to be tougher than the conservatives in doing this, and it will affect the disabled too and the poor according to her first speech when getting her role in parliament.

After 5 years of a Tory-led coalition of the evil , the result of this upcoming election should be a no-brainer. The fact that it isn't says quite a lot about the Labour Party.

However, despite the assistance of a constant media-concocted diet of fawning Tory propaganda , Cameron's Reptiles just don't seem to be able to pull ahead in the polls to any significant degree.

The question arises of just how low their compliant friends will be sinking in the next 19 days to engineer a Tory victory and what one huge dirty lie about their opponents is being prepared as we speak?

After all, we can't have Desperate Dave losing face , can we...?

Just get them a submarine Phil, because they will need one I assure you as they will sink as low as they can get my friend.

How representative are polls?

How many people, at the ballot booth, will choose the conservative, in all senses of the word, option, when it comes to the crunch?

However few, it will be too many...

Fewer than the last election G.W. and I will put a friendly bet on it, Labour will get into power.

Phil Hornby wrote:-
The question arises of just how low their compliant friends will be sinking in the next 19 days to engineer a Tory victory and what one huge dirty lie about their opponents is being prepared as we speak?

I’ve been thinking the same thing for some time, wondering what equivalent of the 1924 ‘Zinoviev letter’ will be dredged up by ‘The Daily Mail’ a couple of days before polling, when it is too late for it to be refuted properly. Maybe a gigantic lie suggesting that Ed Miliband is the head of a Doncaster paedophile ring, or some equally sick fabrication?

Any last-minute smear would come too late to have an effect on those voting by post (the ballot papers are arriving any day now), but in an election as close as this one is supposed to be, it could tip the balance and give us five more years of the most right-wing, vicious and corrupt government that this country has had for many decades.

Then Labour should get in first Ivan should they not? even though we are honest and do not sink as low as the tory creeps, maybe we should play them at their own game for just this one election.

" Maybe a gigantic lie suggesting that Ed Miliband is the head of a Doncaster paedophile ring, or some equally sick fabrication?"

As long as it's nothing really serious - like having secretly been a member of the Tory Party at university...

So Phil what it should be leaked is that Cameron use to be a member of the labour party but we threw him out fot bad language like vote tory?

I am trying to think of a scandal of any sort involving Cameron that I could not believe...

Cameron is insisting he is straight?

The most likely result of the general election in 2015?

Cameron may have grown the longest nose.

He's already won that race

The latest and final Ipsos MORI poll for STV News puts support for Nicola Sturgeon's party at 54%, up by two percentage points on the last poll, with Labour trailing on 20%, down from 24%.

Support for the Conservatives has increased by five points to 17% while the Liberal Democrats are on 5%, up one point, the Greens are on 2%, down by two points, Ukip are polling at 1%, with support for other parties also at 1%.

Using these figures, the Electoral Calculus website predicts that the SNP would take all 59 seats in Scotland.

Ipsos MORI questioned 1,071 people between April 22 and 27 on how they would vote if there were a Westminster General Election tomorrow.

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/generalelection2015/poll-suggests-snp-seats-clean-sweep/ar-BBiPYkJ?ocid=U219DHP

oftenwrong wrote:The latest and final Ipsos MORI poll for STV News puts support for Nicola Sturgeon's party at 54%, up by two percentage points on the last poll, with Labour trailing on 20%, down from 24%.

And none of those MPs could conceivably support the tories.   The ludicrous Murdoch and other rich men's papers keeps trying to confuse the issue, but does anyone seriously suppose Cameron can win?

Penderyn, IMHO I believe it will be a coalition government again, with hopefully Labour the largest majority.

Well Ed has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP in the leaders debate and said that he would let the Tories continue as a minority government.

So in that event we would probably expect a period of deep insecurity after the next election and probably leading to a vote of no confidence against the Tories and followed by another election later in the year.

Or maybe March next year Phil, as one too soon would only reduce the amount voting would it not?

@

Coalition governments lead to unstable governments at the best of times.The last one worked, i think., because the LD's are a more closer to the Tories in a political sense. From a personal perspective i always saw them as being Tories in sheeps clothing.

With the next mix in the commons, and if the polls are to be believed it's going to be much more LW. So if the Tories carry on as a minority government (with them being the slightly larger party) they will get voted down on most of their nasty measures anyway!

Before you all start not believing in Ed Miliband, just remember what he has said in the past "People have UNDERESTIMARED ME too many times. After tonights debates I think Ed has something up his sleeve he is too Intelligant for not to have something going on, or he could be daring the people of the UK not to give him a working majority.

Phillip J H wrote:@

Coalition governments lead to unstable governments at the best of times.The last one worked, i think., because the LD's are a more closer to the Tories in a political sense. From a personal perspective i always saw them as being Tories in sheeps clothing.

With the next mix in the commons, and if the polls are to be believed it's going to be much more LW. So if the Tories carry on as a minority government (with them being the slightly larger party) they will get voted down on most of their nasty measures anyway!

Thanks Phillip what did you make of what Ed Miliband said about not going into coalition or confidence & supply with the SNP or the Lib-Dems who are poisin in the eyes of the voting public, the SNP want to twist his arm up his back so they can get rid of the Labour party for good then what they really want another Referendum on Independence for Scotland.

Methinks That he would much rather a coalition with the LD's and the smaller parties including those of Northern Ireland (the math still doesn't work there though for overall majority government)

I think he's wary of a deal with the SNP as they will want another referendum on independance within five years of the next parliament.

Perhaps he will get Nicola to relay on that

@

Hi!

I was always in favour of a supply and demand arrangement with the SNP!

I think the 'plan' that Milly has up his sleeve is either to be Leader of the Opposition again, or to quit politics. The session last night just wrote another line of his suicide note.

The only hope is that Cameron will cobble together such a small coalition majority that he is vulnerable to all sorts of wrecking attempts by his motley crew of 'partners' as time progresses and that the strain of governing in such circumstances will make life thoroughly miserable for him.

It will , of course, be even more unbearable for thousands of people who had hoped that Labour would put up a far better fight...

It appeared to me from Miliband on QT that he was warning the Scottish voters, who in previous elections always elected Labour candidates, against allowing the Tories to succeed by default.

Playing the Independence card next Thursday could have unintended results.

PH What do you think Ed was doing last night ? he flung down the gauntlet to the Tories and the SNP I do not know if you have seen the Tory billboards with a photo of Salmond with Ed Miliband in his top pocket because I did in Wirral West trying to frighten people from voting Labour, saying he will look after the people of Scotland & forget about the rest of the UK.

As for the SNP I have a theory, she has done a underhand deal with Davy boy, she will help him get rid of the Labour party for good in return he will give her another section 30 (Independence Referendum). Sturgeon would then look like the saviour of the Scots and if Scots did vote Yes to Independence there will be no Labour party to be there when things go T*TS up with Independence there will nothing they can do.

I have another reason for wanting a Labour gov't in power on May 7th, I am not prepared to stay in Scotland while Sturgeon and Salmond EFF it up with the "NEVER-ENDUM", I will be looking to move to England to get out of the way of Salmond & Sturgeon I do not to be on a moving staircase until the SNP get the answer they want which is Yes to Independence.

" PH What do you think Ed was doing last night ?"

I really don't know. Did he...?

Phil Hornby wrote:" PH What do you think Ed was doing last night ?"

I really don't know. Did he...?

"HELL YES" Ed flung down the gaunlet to both the Tories and the SNP, while I was in Wirral West the Tories had big Billbaords with a photo of Salmond with Ed Miliband in his top pocket, inferring that it will not be the Labour party in charge of gov't but the SNP that will be dictating what happens in the entire UK. That is what Ed was doing last night PH, you have got to admit this general election the Tories have went as lower as a human being can go (SCUM LEVEL) along with the SNP. Ed has being the total gentleman by not returning like with like from the Tories UNTIL last night which makes me think more of Ed for trying to let the people of the UK know the WHOLE TRUTH. Not the Tories form of truth which they would not know if it jumped up and slap them in the face full force.

Good old Ed will pay the price for trying to pretend that the SNP are not in the same general left-of-centre 'progressive alliance' which will need to be formed after the election to confront those Tories who will have done deals of their own to take power once again.

It's all very well posturing and pontificating , but if the price of doing so is to allow Cameron to continue with 'business as usual' then it's a step too far. If Milly had just said : " Labour will write its Queen's Speech and would welcome votes in support of it to ensure that socially responsible budget and other associated policies can be enacted , thereby preventing repeat or continuation of the Tory evil", he would not have thumbed his nose at the SNP and other like-minded anti-Tory players.

As it is he has probably alienated both them and a huge raft of the general public who just want a bit of reality, honesty and transparency from their politicians - for a change...

Phillip J H wrote:Methinks That he would much rather a coalition with the LD's and the smaller parties including those of Northern Ireland (the math still doesn't work there though for overall majority government)

I think he's wary of a deal with the SNP as they will want another referendum on independance within five years of the next parliament.

Perhaps he will get Nicola to relay on that

Like all New Labour, he responds to tory lies by accepting them.   I find it depressing.   Why exactly are Scots votes not allowed to count?

I never said that Scots votes weren't allowed to count, they would in a supply kind of arrangement with Labour at Westminster.

I think Ed is concerned about the break up of the UK so is unlikely to agree to another Scottish independance referendum as part of a deal with them.

They just had a referendum anyway.

Oh and there is no New Labour anymore.

Basically Penderyn because of what they would have wanted in return for them I believe.

Stuart you have hit the nailon the head, the SNP would extract a price for there help in the HOC that would be too high for Ed to pay, you all seem to forget that I live in Scotland and know exactly how shifty the SNP are, they can not run Scotland properly our NHS is in such a state more than likely just the same as England if not worse as I found out last June.

Thank you Redflag,I knew the SNP would be asking far to higher price, than Ed was prepared to pay, as Ed knows what his supporters think too Redflag, as I always fill in the questions they ask etc when I donate. shame some posters do not think I know what I am talking about though.

Phil Hornby wrote:-
If Milly had just said : " Labour will write its Queen's Speech and would welcome votes in support of it to ensure that socially responsible budget and other associated policies can be enacted , thereby preventing repeat or continuation of the Tory evil", he would not have thumbed his nose at the SNP and other like-minded anti-Tory players.

Yes, that would have been an excellent response. (Have you ever considered going into politics?) If you present a Queen’s Speech, you can’t be held responsible for those who choose to support it……

Unfortunately, the Tories and their friends in the press are managing to keep people talking about this issue, instead of discussing the crisis in the NHS or those welfare cuts which they won’t tell us about until after the election.

Both Labour and the SNP ruled out any formal coalition with each other some time ago. Then Ed Miliband ruled out a ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement. Now he’s said he’d rather stay in opposition than make a deal with the SNP, which must have sent shockwaves through the poor, the sick and the disabled at the thought of yet more years of Iain Duncan Smith’s abject cruelty. However, what we have to remember at this point in time is that Scottish Labour MPs and candidates are fighting to save the party’s 41 seats from the SNP. If you give any indication that you’re prepared to work with the SNP, aren’t you saying that it doesn’t really matter if its candidates get elected in place of Labour ones?

But perhaps it doesn’t matter too much. Nicola Sturgeon and her colleagues will not want to hold another independence referendum unless they believe they will win it. They will want to consolidate their support in Scotland after this election, and then increase it in the 2016 Holyrood election by showing themselves as an effective Westminster operation.

The trump card that Ed Miliband has in his hands is that Nicola Sturgeon will never be forgiven by Scotland if she’s instrumental in there being a Tory government. In March 1979, the SNP voted with the Tories to bring down the Labour government. Callaghan was right to call them “turkeys voting for an early Christmas”. They were punished at the subsequent election, losing nine of their 11 seats. Thirty-six years later, they would not want to be held responsible for bringing Boris Johnson or Theresa May to power by combining with the Tories to pass a motion of no confidence in Labour. If the SNP let a Tory government in, even in exchange for full fiscal autonomy, the SNP would get a kicking in the 2016 Holyrood election and lose any chance of achieving independence. So in effect, Ed Miliband doesn’t have to do anything. No coalition, no deals, just the knowledge that the SNP won’t bring his government down.

However, what I find truly hypocritical about all of this is that parties which claim to be pro-union are little more than pretend or part-time unionists. The Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems were desperate for Scotland to stay in the UK but now don’t want a democratic UK party – the SNP – to have any say in the overall governance of that union in the UK-wide parliament at Westminster.

Phil Hornby wrote:Good old Ed will pay the price for trying to pretend that the SNP are not in the same general left-of-centre 'progressive alliance' which will need to be formed after the election to confront those Tories who will have done deals of their own to take power once again.

What you all seem to forget is the high price that both nationalists parties will want from Ed for there support, do not be deluded by the rhetric coming from the nationalists parties they will want what Ed cannot give them then they will come out to the public saying Ed is no socialists.

Making sure that the Labour party is defunked for good leaving England with a permanant Tory gov't and Scotland with a permanant SNP gov't, if the people of the rest of the UK think that all things here in Scotland is fine & dandy they better think again because things here in Scotland are no better than they are in England.

Precisely Redflag, that is why you want labour back instead of SNP is it not?

It is but it annoys me that the SNP are pulling the wool over the eyes of the Scottish people which surprises me because here in Scotland we do not vote Tory which it shows good sense.

Would be a bit hard to vote for them if they have no heads would it not? but at least they are wise.