Is the United Kingdom doomed?

First topic message reminder :

Exactly what I’ve been predicting for a long time. I said that if the Tories, so hated in Scotland that they have only one MP, came to power at Westminster again, the Scots would decide that they’d rather go it alone. Apparently, Scottish independence now has majority backing north of the border and in the UK as a whole, according to a new poll.

Research by ComRes for ‘The Independent on Sunday’ and ‘The Sunday Mirror’ found that support for the move had risen sharply over recent months. The results are a boost for First Minister Alex Salmond as his Scottish National Party prepares to hold its autumn conference in Inverness.

In the UK overall, 39% of those surveyed agreed that Scotland should be an independent country - an increase of six points since May. The number disagreeing with the statement had fallen four points to 38%.
In Scotland, the proportion supporting independence was up 11 points over the period at 49%. Some 37% disagreed - down by nine points.

The SNP, which won an unprecedented overall majority in May elections, has promised to hold a referendum on independence towards the end of its five-year term.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/majority-back-scottish-independence-193447501.html

Do not blame you Redflag.

Ivan wrote:Penderyn. I’m sorry you were unable to edit your message. We had a couple of idiots who threw tantrums and set about deleting or editing away their messages on an industrial scale until they were stopped. Removing messages can obviously destroy threads by making it impossible to follow what other members are writing about.

The forum staff take the view that, once posted, messages belong to the forum, although that doesn’t remove the responsibility of the poster if the messages are libellous, racist, homophobic or sexist. After what had happened, we decided not to allow posters to delete their messages and only to allow them to edit them for the first 15 minutes after posting. I have now increased that to one hour after posting, which should give sufficient time for anyone to change something they’ve written.

At the risk of stating the obvious, I would say:-
- Unless a message is very short, it’s best to write it elsewhere and then copy/paste it to here. Occasionally there have been glitches where messages have failed to post and are lost.
- Use the preview to check what you’ve written before sending it.
- If you do need to edit a message, there is no need to fill in that annoying ‘reason for editing’ box unless further messages have already been posted on the thread.

Message to all members using this thread – would you kindly have your private conversations via the personal messaging system? Can we please stick to the subject of the future (if any) of the UK? Thanks.

I don't think I ever change the sense of what I say - it is just that I suffer with mild dyslexia.

Those who are predicting the imminent meltdown of the Labour Party in Scotland may be a little premature. Too much shouldn’t be read into one local by-election with a 34% turnout, but it was Labour, not the SNP, which gained a seat when an independent councillor in Midlothian resigned because of ill-health:-

http://www.midlothianadvertiser.co.uk/news/local-news/breaking-news-labour-s-kenny-young-wins-midlothian-east-by-election-1-3619025#

I agree Ivan because the Scottish NHS is not that great and it has been under the SNP since 2007, I was taken into hospital at the end of May beginning of June, and I can honestly say it was not a good experience the ward was filthy in three days never saw a cleaner cleaning the ward and when I walked on the floor to go to the WC I could hear grit crunching beneath my feet and do not get me started on the nurses more like the care workers you hear about in the news abusing the vulnerable & old.

The only decent medical person on the ward was the ward doctor, he knew I was ill but getting ready to sign myself out so he transferred me to another ward, the bed lined was the cheapest they could buy very poor quality brushed nylon which tore my skin.

But to stop the SNP in there tracks Scottish Labour will have to roll up there sleeves and get stuck in to show the people of Scotland that the SNP are NOT doing a good job and are no different to the Tories at blaming everybody else (ie Westminister) for the things that they are getting very wrong. I believe they spent some of Scotlands budget on there referendum campaign.

Extracts from an editorial in ‘The Guardian’:-

Devolution for England is essential, but not like this

"Devolution always had implications for England, but the proposals that William Hague announced are a small-minded, wholly tactical response to a much larger strategic political problem of UK governance that is left unaddressed. The Hague paper is compromised by David Cameron’s original political sin – his irresponsible insistence on responding to the vote against independence by announcing that it now meant providing English votes for English laws. This was a move about which all other UK parties warned – including, in Alistair Darling’s case, at 5am on the morning after the referendum. Cameron’s determination to persist is hard to forgive.

Cameron’s failure of statesmanship at such a crucial moment snubbed Scotland’s decision to remain in the UK in the most provocative way imaginable. It was as though, now that the Scots had turned their backs on nationalism, the English were being given the green light to embrace a form of nationalism of their own. The net result has been the resurrection of Scottish nationalism. The stability of the UK, which seemed to have survived the 18 September vote, is now more threatened than ever.

Hague’s proposals are important only as a piece of political positioning by the Conservatives, who are determined not to allow UKIP to cast themselves as the English party. Yet just because Hague’s ideas have exploded on the launchpad, the issues they address cannot be left to fester. All parties need to have a comprehensive UK devolution plan which can be implemented in time for the 2020 election."

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/16/guardian-view-on-english-votes-for-english-laws

I know we do not like UKIP very much Ivan, but why on earth are they not allowing them to be the English party? when in fact they cast themselves as the UK party?
Why are they wanting this form of nationalism for England, now that Scotland have turned their backs on their own?

You seem to have forgot stu that the majority of Scots voted NO to Independence on the 18th September 2014, the only people that want Scotland to separate from the UK is the SNP, and for all the extra powers that Scotland has been given the SNP are still not happy.   The reason for this is its is "What The SNP Want" not the people of Scotland want this IMHO its the leaders of the SNP that want a better title instead of First Minister they want First President, so they can fly around the world hob-nobbing with other world leaders.

I always think of the UK AS THE UK, why all of a sudden do the Tories want us to become independent England?

Redflag. Living in the deep south of the UK, it’s probably easier to be a little more detached about the Scottish referendum. The result – 55-45 – was a lot closer than many people expected, and that one opinion poll putting ‘Yes’ in front clearly caused blind panic. When you think that the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems were all lined up against the SNP, I think their 45% share was surprisingly good.

That’s not to say that Salmond ran a good campaign. To want to keep the pound, and be subject to Treasury decisions made in London, was just plain daft. And why keep a hereditary Windsor as head of state if you’re going to be a brand new sovereign nation? On the other hand, the ‘No’ campaign was mostly negative and consisted mainly of scaremongering. I really don’t know what I would have done if I’d had a vote.

I suspect that if another referendum was held now, the vote would be ‘Yes’. Against all sensible advice, Cameron opened his big trap on the morning after the referendum and allowed the SNP to run the narrative that all parties on the ‘No’ side had broken their promises! Well that’s just nonsense, of course. Tories rarely keep any promises on anything, but until Labour gets into power, it’s not possible to say if it will keep its promises on Scotland.

However, in the meantime Labour support in Scotland has plummeted (at least temporarily) and SNP membership has soared into the stratosphere. If the nightmare continues and Cameron does stay on in Downing Street next May, and if he then turns Scottish MPs into lame ducks who can’t even vote on the Budget (as some Tories are demanding), then the pressure for Scottish independence will be overwhelming. As I’ve said with the issue of our EU membership, the arguments don’t usually disappear just because a referendum has been held, and sometimes it can make matters worse.

It's become clear that the SNP regard the Referendum decision as only a temporary setback while they re-group.

Who wants a quiet life anyway?

A few people and posters I know OW seem to agree with your statement, does that mean they will have another referendum on the issue?

Most political commentators agree that the result of next May's general election is likely to be too close to call, Stu.

ScotNats expect to sweep the board where they live and by so doing become kingmaker at Westminster, in which case the "Union" question will hang over every other political party like the sword of Damocles.

By so doing OW, whoever offers the SNP the best deal gets the coalition with them until the next election, probably 6 months or so later, is that correct OW?

No. Firstly, only the Tories (with a war chest of £78 million from all their corporate donors who have been buying state assets on the cheap) could afford to fight two elections in one year. Secondly, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act of 2011 would probably have to be repealed, and that could take a year or so. Thirdly, Nicola Sturgeon has categorically ruled out any deal with the Tories. She knows that they’re even more toxic in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, and she also knows, from the Lib Dem experience, that forming an alliance with the Tories can seriously damage your political health.

We'll know soon enough. The "casting vote" may belong to Scottish Nationalists, UKIP, Lib-Dems, Greens or some Party alliance which we haven't even thought of yet.

It will be most interesting to see whether current parliamentary enthusiasm for FPTP voting survives a messy general election result.

Exactly OW, May seems a while to go but it is only 20 weeks and a few odd days, and time flies when you are having fun.

oftenwrong wrote:-
It will be most interesting to see whether current parliamentary enthusiasm for FPTP voting survives a messy general election result.

More to the point of this thread, it will be interesting to see if the United Kingdom survives anything other than an outright Labour win. A minority Labour government dependent on SNP support would doubtless have to promise another referendum on Scottish independence, and I suspect it would result in a ‘Yes’ vote next time. Any government which includes the toxic Tories can only aggravate tensions in Scotland, as would their proposed referendum on the EU. Cameron has said that he would only accept the UK-wide result, so if the majority of Brits vote for withdrawal but most Scots want to stay in, tough luck Scots! We could end up with Britain out of the EU and Scotland out of the UK.

It just seems awful to myself that scotland would not be part of the UK anymore as part of any deal made with labour or the Tories.
Next it would be Wales wanting independence too will it not. leaving just England independent and the UK no more.

John Major warns of SNP coup!  

“Their plan for this coup is not only to get their members elected, but then to send those elected people to the parliament they’ve been elected to, to speak and vote on the issues they were elected to speak and vote about! And you thought ISIS was bad?” (Mark Steel)

stuart torr wrote:It just seems awful to myself that scotland would not be part of the UK anymore as part of any deal made with labour or the Tories.
Next it would be Wales wanting independence too will it not. leaving just England independent and the UK  no more.

So? What do we get out of the UK to make it so attractive? The reason our people accept the UK is they're poor, and keep foolishly hoping to get some of what's been stolen back - in which, doubtless, they resemble working people everywhere.

I do not really care myself leaving England alone.

stuart torr wrote:I do not really care myself leaving England alone.

Some sort of federal arrangement has always seemed to me the best bet. The trouble is that England is so much bigger than the others combined, and there's such a long backlog of bullying by the tories - who have never ever had a majority here since many could vote.

I am afraid though Penderyn that the latest polls put the tories in front again unfortunately.

I will place a bet with all you posters on this forum, that this is the worst organised Labour party that I have ever come across, they have all my details on my membership yet when I have asked so many bloody times, I get replies from them like, what is your postcode,when ONE i HAD SENT IT IN MY EMAIL AND THEY HAVE IT IN MY MEMBERSHIP DETAILS?
Or they try and get me to travel miles with no transport on a sunday to that area? are they totally that daft?
The tories do have a better run party, and that is why the latest polls show them leading, because Labour are so poorly run, it makes me want to cry to face another 5years of this shite in power, for all the disabled folk like myself and worse,and the poor people that are going to have to face another 5years of them.

Penderyn wrote:-
Some sort of federal arrangement has always seemed to me the best bet.

I think it’s the only long-term solution if the UK is to survive as an entity, and time is running out. Can’t we learn anything from the federal arrangements in the USA or Germany?

The trouble is that England is so much bigger than the others combined

Exactly, and it can’t have helped that the capital city of the UK is tucked away in the far south-east.

I offer the idea that the UK could be divided into ten entities - three countries (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) and seven English regions (London, north east, north west, east midlands, west midlands, south east and south west), all with a great deal of devolved power. So as not to add another tier of government, county councils could be abolished.

Each of those regions could send the same number of MPs (maybe 20 from each), elected by proportional representation, to a UK-wide assembly to legislate on matters pertinent to the whole nation. Maybe that assembly should be located in a new purpose-built establishment somewhere near the geographical centre of the UK, such as Leeds.

Some of those ten constituent parts have larger populations than others, but that discrepancy would be a price worth paying for holding the union together. As Gordon Brown mentioned in an article quoted earlier on this thread, California has just two members of the US Senate to represent its 38 million citizens, the same as Wyoming has to represent its 583,000 people.

Ivan have you really given your idea some serious thought?
Those poor unfortunate souls like myself and my neighbour who live in downtrodden council properties, who have to wait an eternity to get repairs done at this moment in time, and that is from local councils, what would happen if the local councils were abolished? who would replace them to do the repairs to our properties?

Would some unkind people refer to such division as "Balkanisation" do you think, Ivan?

Spain after the death of Dictator Franco set up a network of "autonomous regions" but some of them complain about having become Colonies under a Madrid administration while others (e.g. Catalunia, the Basque Country and Galicia) are seeking complete self-government.

@ Stu

The polling is still all over the place. There is an inbuilt advantage for the Labour party in the current first past the post system.

...Even if the Tories were to get a few more seats and become the largest party they would still fall below the magic number to form a government and would still need the support of other parties in order to form a government and it doesn't look like the LibDems would support them again as they wouldn't have the numbers needed anyway!

There are more left wing parties in the current political scene!

@ Stu

Ring them and plague them with emails over repairs these days.

We have found it better to contact our MP (thankfully Labour) over all repairs now, he gets onto them and they are done in a few weeks, you just keep in touch with your MP via email!

Allegedly "left-wing". This election seems to have uncovered a remarkably broad church of political belief.

Hi Phil.
I put a bet on with the posters on here that we face a third term in office with the tory shite,which makes me want to cry with what they have done to the disabled and poor, so myself and others worse than myself are going to suffer again.

Hi Stu

But at the time of forming the last coalition the tories were at about nine points ahead!!!!...They still had to get the LibDems on side!

Thanks for speaking to Doug the other night btw. I knew that your words would be of comfort to him, rather than to relay them if that makes sense.

Members please take note:-

- If you want to have a private conversation, do so via the personal messaging system, not on public threads.

- If you're going to start a new topic, make sure that it doesn't have a very limited shelf life, isn't on a topic that already has a thread and that it contains an opening post of some substance, not just a video or a cursory comment. The opening post appears on every subsequent page of a thread and is meant to stimulate discussion.

- For the record, if the Tories win on 7 May it will be the start of their second, not third, term. However, there is a separate thread for 'latest polls'; this one is about the future of the UK. And yes, I have thought about my idea for more devolved government to save the union, and were county councils to be abolished their powers would either be transferred to existing town or district councils or to the new regional assemblies.

Thanks Ivan for advising of the rules again.

So ok, you can't mention that you have engaged in any PM's on here.

Tongue in cheek comment...You are a Socalist and not a national one (Germany WW2)

Ivan then I have to apologise for my mistake regarding the conservative terms in office, but surely your ideas regarding the ten entities etc sounds more like a tory privatisation. lmao.

Ivan...Can i ask why you took issue to that video that tory scum video that i posted?

You said that you and others were trying to move away from the poor issue?

Do you think that the poor should have no voice. On leftwing demonstrations, should we not shout out tory scum then?

Thanks.

Ivan...If disabled people put pickets outside of ATOS buildings at shout Tory scum!

Is that wrong then?

Devolving power from Westminster is nothing like privatisation. I’m not suggesting that corporations take over the running of regional governments, though of course many Tory councils outsource the provision of some services to private firms. It is Labour policy to devolve to local councils a lot of the power which Thatcher centralised, but the party’s plans aren’t as radical as my suggestions!

John Prescott did hold a referendum in the north east of England in 2004 to see if voters there wanted a regional assembly, but the idea was overwhelmingly rejected. My suspicion is that it wasn’t well explained and appeared to be an extra tier of government (and therefore more expense and bureaucracy), but of course that need not be the case if county councils were scrapped.

I can't see any other way - apart from four separate parliaments in the UK - that this issue of devolved power for England as well as for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, can be solved. EVEL, with first and second class MPs at Westminster, would be a recipe for disaster and hasten the break-up of the union.

Phil there is one rule for one and one rule for the other just lately is there not? Ivan can say scum rises to the top and therefore call the Tories scum, but because your pop/rock group kept saying tory scum it was not allowed was it, seems one rule for one and not another Phil and I will get told off for that as I have said it twice now.




I wonder which part of "If you want to have a private conversation, do so via the personal messaging system, not on public threads" you find so hard to understand?
24-hour ban.
Ivan

Never mind the SNP. The real danger is if the DUP are in government

From an article by Owen Jones:-

"In a desperate, scorched-earth attempt to remain in power, the unionist Tories are willing to ensure the break-up of the UK, shamelessly fanning anti-Scottish resentment in England while fuelling the SNP juggernaut. But we have had all too much scrutiny of the SNP, some of it bordering on hysteria. Where, then, is the debate about the Tories’ likely partners, Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party? The idea of these bigoted throwbacks holding the balance of power should frighten even moderate Tories.

The DUP once championed the ‘Save Ulster from Sodomy’ campaign in a bitter attempt to prevent the decriminalisation of homosexuality. They oppose the right of women to an abortion, with Jim Wells (the DUP health minister in Northern Ireland) supporting a ban even for rape victims. Creationism is a powerful vein within the party. And even as public support for the death penalty is in steep decline, back in 2011 the DUP called for a parliamentary debate to reinstate it.

A Tory-led government would probably not just be reliant on the DUP, but UKIP too. They would make common cause with the large, rabidly right-wing contingent on the Tory backbenches. The hard right would have more political influence over the national government than at any other point in post-war British history. This would all but guarantee Scottish independence: Scottish MPs would be locked out of the new government, and the SNP would stick a new referendum in their 2016 Holyrood manifesto, and almost certainly walk such a vote amid widespread Scottish revulsion."

For the whole article:-
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/24/snp-dup-democratic-unionist-party-government-tories-anti-scottish-coalition-homophobic