Latest polls

First topic message reminder :

Latest YouGov results are apparently:

Con 30%
Lab 42%
LDem 6%
UKIP 10%

So the drop in Labour's lead to single-digits in a different poll earlier this week was a 'blip', seemingly - the change was within the margin of error and not significant.

It comes to something when one would wllingly tolerate a LibDem success, but if the alternative is victory for that repulsive pig-faced Tory woman , even having one's fingernails removed by pliers without anaesthetic would be preferable.

I admire our colleague Redflag's commitment to the cause of her party, although I fear all that can be achieved is 'a good showing'. Were I - as a non-party supporting person- voting, I would have to give considerable thought to placing my cross against the name of the Beer,Baccy and Crumpet candidate. This is despite my being a non-smoker and a very moderate drinker. And, if Mrs Hornby should access this thread at any time, I am naturally not in the least attracted by the third limb of said party. Honest.....

Red
My money's on you to turn the vote to Labour, but if you're not successful, do you think you could persuade people to vote for the Elvis Loves Pets candidate rather than Tories or Lib Dems?
Very best wishes - I'm sure you'll make a BIG difference.

boatlady wrote:Red
My money's on you to turn the vote to Labour, but if you're not successful, do you think you could persuade people to vote for the Elvis Loves Pets candidate rather than Tories or Lib Dems?
Very best wishes - I'm sure you'll make a BIG difference.

Thanks boatlady I will do my very best to persuade the people of Eastleigh to vote Labour, if they do not win I would prefer an Independent to win with Labour second because that would be like a punch in the mouth to the Tories and L/Ds and would deflate both parties and just maybe they might wake up and smell the coffee. I am looking forward to being there if I can get my hands on a computer I will tweet Ivan or skywalker and they can let you all know how things are going in Eastleigh.

There are just two cyber-cafes, both in (nearby) Southampton.



1.World Communications
· 023 8063 6161
137a Derby Road
· Southampton


2.World Internet & Video Shop
· 023 8033 8397
54 St. Marys Road
· Southampton

oftenwrong wrote:-
There are just two cyber-cafes, both in (nearby) Southampton.

1.World Communications
· 023 8063 6161
137a Derby Road
· Southampton

2.World Internet & Video Shop
· 023 8033 8397
54 St. Marys Road
· Southampton

Or find a Costa (or other cafe/pub with a wifi signal) and post from there.

oftenwrong wrote:There are just two cyber-cafes, both in (nearby) Southampton.



1.World Communications
· 023 8063 6161
137a Derby Road
· Southampton


2.World Internet & Video Shop
· 023 8033 8397
54 St. Marys Road
· Southampton

I suppose this is a hint for me to keep in touch OW while I am away, if I can maybe john would allow me to use his but I will get on too twitter and give Ivan and skywalker so they can let you all know how things are going, I listened to Five Live today it was coming from Eastleigh the Tory candidate did not turn up but they sent a stand in for her, from what I heard it is all still to play for in the By-Election. I will be staying in the Travelodge Hotel in Southampton Road and the Labour campaign office is just around the corner in Leigh Rd.

skwalker1964 wrote:

oftenwrong wrote:-
There are just two cyber-cafes, both in (nearby) Southampton.

1.World Communications
· 023 8063 6161
137a Derby Road
· Southampton

2.World Internet & Video Shop
· 023 8033 8397
54 St. Marys Road
· Southampton

Or find a Costa (or other cafe/pub with a wifi signal) and post from there.

Skywalker its a desk top computer I have, maybe John O'Farrell will allow me to use his or one that is in the office - here is hoping and thank you for all your help

blueturando. You are out of order in trying to pass on “the best wishes of this forum” to Maria Hutchings, when the vast majority of our members do not wish the ‘Sarah Palin of the south coast’ well. That odious woman is against equal marriage, the EU, immigration and abortion

Ahhh Ivan, Skywalker was correct in saying this was kinda tongue in cheek as personally I do not have any time for this women either....But! I thought the forum was 'Left inclined', not a Labour Party Forum where only praise and support for Labour is permitted. If it is the case then maybe you should change the heading on top of the forum to 'This is a forum supporting the Labour Party'.

Most people know that the current Labour party is not left wing anyway, so maybe you should either change your allegencies, or you could change the forum heading to.....
'This is a centre ground inclined forum'

against equal marriage, the EU, immigration and abortion

PS....There are plenty of people on the Left who are against these issues for one reason or another. As someone on the centre right I support equal marraige rights for all, abortion rights for women, immigration on a 'sensible' level and would be happy to stay in the EU if it could change a few things...Am I suddenly now a Leftie???

This above all: to thine own self be true,
And it must follow, as the night the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man.
Farewell, my blessing season this in thee!


Laertes:
Most humbly do I take my leave, my lord.


Hamlet Act 1, scene 3, 78–82

blueturando wrote:

blueturando. You are out of order in trying to pass on “the best wishes of this forum” to Maria Hutchings, when the vast majority of our members do not wish the ‘Sarah Palin of the south coast’ well. That odious woman is against equal marriage, the EU, immigration and abortion

Ahhh Ivan, Skywalker was correct in saying this was kinda tongue in cheek as personally I do not have any time for this women either....But! I thought the forum was 'Left inclined', not a Labour Party Forum where only praise and support for Labour is permitted. If it is the case then maybe you should change the heading on top of the forum to 'This is a forum supporting the Labour Party'.

Most people know that the current Labour party is not left wing anyway, so maybe you should either change your allegencies, or you could change the forum heading to.....
'This is a centre ground inclined forum'

against equal marriage, the EU, immigration and abortion

PS....There are plenty of people on the Left who are against these issues for one reason or another. As someone on the centre right I support equal marraige rights for all, abortion rights for women, immigration on a 'sensible' level and would be happy to stay in the EU if it could change a few things...Am I suddenly now a Leftie???

Blue a leopard never changes its spots, never in the creation of crows shit do you think like us on the left.

blueturando wrote:Most people know that the current Labour party is not left wing anyway, so maybe you should either change your allegencies, or you could change the forum heading to.....
'This is a centre ground inclined forum'

I just started a new thread in Health titled 'Labour on the NHS', with a first post 'An evening with Andy Burnham - and hope for the NHS'. The health board is the right place for it, but it does also contain an interesting indicator that Labour - as I've been predicting for some time - is about to get bold about reclaiming its roots and being ready to declare it loudly and proudly, so please all go and take a look.

If there are comments on that specific aspect, then they can go in this thread.

blueturando. I can’t speak on behalf of the forum any more than you can; I’m quite sure the Tory and UKIP members don’t want John O’Farrell to win in Eastleigh. The admirable Redflag – going to Eastleigh at her own expense to help with John’s campaign – also can’t speak for the entire forum, but she will convey the good wishes of many of us to the Labour candidate.

An impartial observer might suggest that the Lib Dem candidate deserves to win the seat. After all, he is a local man and serving councillor, and it’s not his fault if his party at national level sold its soul, did a volte-face on most of its promises and became part of the most right-wing government in living memory.

There are always exceptions, but pro-choice and equal marriage are usually identified as ‘left’ causes. It was under a Labour government (admittedly with a free vote) that both abortion and homosexuality were legalised in 1967. It was under a Labour government that civil partnerships for gays were introduced. It was only with Labour and Lib Dem support that equal marriage was approved by the House of Commons recently; the majority of Tory MPs voted against it, the vast majority of Labour MPs voted in favour. There were mass resignations by Tory colonels in the shires over that issue, but I haven’t heard of any Labour members leaving our party over it. And it’s mainly Tory MPs like Nadine Dorries and Jeremy Hunt – along with Tory candidates like Maria Hutchings – who want to restrict a woman’s right to an abortion.

Immigration is more likely to be opposed by right-wingers with a ‘Little Englander’ mentality who hanker after the days when the UK was only occupied by well behaved white people, even if those days never actually existed. The EU is an issue that cuts across party lines, with some of us not sure if it’s an instrument for spreading Friedmanite dogma or an institution which safeguards workers’ rights. However, since the time when Hague led the party, the Tories have become more and more anti-EU, while the Labour Party seems to be moderately pro-EU these days.

All national political parties are coalitions within themselves, so it’s not surprising if members sometimes disagree with each other. You can be left or right on both economic and social issues. I’m sure you must have taken the test which shows whether you’re left or right and authoritarian or libertarian:-
http://www.politicalcompass.org/

(If anyone wishes to post their results after taking that test, please do so here:-
https://cuttingedge2.forumotion.co.uk/t752-are-you-left-or-right)

From ukpollingreport.co.uk 25/2:

Sky News have already released the monthly ComRes poll for the Independent here and show topline figures of CON 31%(-1), LAB 43%(+4), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 9%(-1). A significant increase for Labour and the largest Labour lead they’ve shown in their phone polls (albeit not significantly different from several 11 point leads they showed last year).

The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday, so after the allegations about Lord Rennard and at least partially after the downgrade of Britain’s credit rating. Surely they are what’s caused the shift in the polls? Not so fast…

The Lib Dem score looks bad for the party, and it’s the lowest ComRes have shown the Lib Dems in their telephone polls. However, let’s not forget all our usual caution* – it is just one poll and the changes are within the margin of error. Wait and see if it is picked up in other polling.

The Labour increase meanwhile is less mysterious. When there is a movement in the polls it is natural to look at the last few days for an explanation for what might have caused it. Natural, but wrong, as in many cases the previous poll was a whole month ago and the cause of any change could have happened at any point. In this case the last ComRes telephone poll was just after David Cameron’s pledge to hold an EU referendum and showed Labour dropping by three points. As we saw in the YouGov daily polling, that narrowing of the polls from the EU pledge was very short lived indeed – so the most obvious explanation to the change in the poll is an unwinding of the referendum pledge effect, taking us back to the region of the 11 point lead ComRes showed in December.

From ukpollingreport.co.uk, based on average polling for Feb:



Sets Eastleigh in a bit of context!

From 'No Thatcher effect: Tories hit record poll low despite Iron Lady death'
http://politics.co.uk/news/2013/04/11/no-thatcher-effect-tories-hit-record-poll-low-despite-iron-l

The Conservatives' poll ratings hit an unprecedented low today, dashing hopes that the sentiments around the death of Margaret Thatcher would help boost David Cameron's popularity.

The latest YouGov survey puts the Tories at 28%, compared to 42% for Labour and 12% for the Liberal Democrats. Ukip is on 11%.

Two thousand invited to Thatcher's funeral service. How embarrassing for them.

Two thousand, eh? That should keep the ticket price down on eBay...

Phil Hornby wrote:Two thousand, eh? That should keep the ticket price down on eBay...

Would anybody be daft enough to buy tckets for that PRETEND SHOW of GRIEF ???

I presume they've checked the Crypt of St. Paul's Cathedral for gunpowder. We don't want anything to befall Jezza.

Would anybody be daft enough to buy tckets for that PRETEND SHOW of GRIEF ???.


Redflag
Posts: 1896
Join date: 2011-12-31

Some people will do anything for a cheap laugh

boatlady wrote:
Would anybody be daft enough to buy tckets for that PRETEND SHOW of GRIEF ???.


Redflag
Posts: 1896
Join date: 2011-12-31

Some people will do anything for a cheap laugh

THATCHER HAD NO RESPECT FOR THE PEOPLE OF THE UK WHEN SHE WAS ALIVE !!! WHY SHOULD I HAVE ANY RESPECT FOR HER IN DEATH ? RESPECT IS A TWO WAY STREET

We'll be expected to get a lump in our throats over Hitler's demise next....

Well, he did make the trains run on time. Or perhaps that was the other fella.
Will future Historians care about our Devils, or will the entire latter 20th. C and early 21st. C simply be marked, "Here be Dragons"?

RockOnBrother wrote:
SK Walker, you told me it’s about seats, not percentages.

So Labour 382 seats, Conservative with their Liberal Democrat lap dogs 242 seats, and the other 8 seats seemingly not a factor: Who forms a government? Does Northern Ireland figure in?

Rock, just realised I never saw this post. Seats are key, but the graph factors in the change in the number of seats assuming a uniform swing across all constituencies. It's therefore only a guide, but a useful one and perhaps not too far from the eventual truth.

At the next election, the real influence may be the enormous body who do not vote at all.

How can that be measured?

boatlady wrote:
Would anybody be daft enough to buy tckets for that PRETEND SHOW of GRIEF ???.


Redflag
Posts: 1896
Join date: 2011-12-31

Some people will do anything for a cheap laugh

BOATLADY

I would like to know why you have highlighted my avatar name join date and amount of my posts and embolden them, is this not a left wing incline Internastional forum.
You are making me uneasy, that fact you are a moderator is leaving me quite bewildered, as to why you have posted to me in such a manner.

If this is going to be your attitude towards my good self as we jouney on towards the 2015 general election, then I can well do without any pettiness in regards to my ongoing efforts to secure a Labour Victory.

Redflag

Sorry for highlighting too much - you may have realised I'm not very computer savvy - please don't feel uneasy or that I am 'getting at' you - just my general incompetence I'm afraid.
The point I meant to make (and obviously failed miserably) is that the people who would be willing to buy tickets might be people who would do anything for a laugh - it was meant to be an amusing reply to your comment and nothing more.
As to your efforts to secure a Labour victory, I'm completely on side with you - and have nothing but admiration for your enthusiasm and comittment.

You might have caught headlines yesterday about UKIP 'surging' to 22% in a ComRes poll. Well, what the headlines don't tell you is that ComRes polled for an organisation called The Coalition for Marriage - by the sound of it an anti-gay, conservative organisation.

The results for the local elections (which are almost exclusive in the Tory shires anyway) are:

Cons 31.%
Labour 24%
UKIP 22%
Lib Dem 12%
Other 10%

I've heard people question the quality of their poll, suggesting it must have used 'push-pull' questions.

Hidden agenda?

Not long to wait for an actual Poll in the local elections tomorrow.
The only bias will be provided by the number of abstentions.

oftenwrong wrote:Not long to wait for an actual Poll in the local elections tomorrow.
The only bias will be provided by the number of abstentions.

Or how sick people are at the promises since May 2010 that have been broken,that they have decided not to bother to vote in the locals and have decided polictians are all the same, when in fact they ARE NOT, yes I am bias but at least if the normal working man/women was suffering SO WOULD the better off and Labour would NOT have given them a 5p tax break.

Cons 31%
Labour 24%
UKIP 22%
Lib Dem 12%
Other 10%

Most of tomorrow's voting will be taking place in the Tory shire counties. If the above figures do turn out to reflect the actual results, they will indicate an 11% swing from the Tories to Labour since those seats were last contested in 2009.

Ivan wrote:

Cons 31%
Labour 24%
UKIP 22%
Lib Dem 12%
Other 10%

Most of tomorrow's voting will be taking place in the Tory shire counties. If the above figures do turn out to reflect the actual results, they will indicate an 11% swing from the Tories to Labour since those seats were last contested in 2009.

Nick Clegg has just been on the news saying they are hoping to come in 4th in the local elections, so let us hope the Tories come in 5th.

Those poll results don't look as encouraging as I would ideally like - I'd have hoped for Labour to show WELL ahead of UKIP

In the seats that are being contested tomorrow, the Tories won 44% of the vote in 2009, while Labour managed only 14%. These are mainly elections to county councils, with most of the voters living in rural areas.

I don't think that many elections are taking place in the metropolitan districts, where you would expect Labour to do well, but there is the parliamentary by-election in David Miliband's old seat of South Shields.

Ivan wrote:In the seats that are being contested tomorrow, the Tories won 44% of the vote in 2009, while Labour managed only 14%. These are mainly elections to county councils, with most of the voters living in rural areas.

I don't think that many elections are taking place in the metropolitan districts, where you would expect Labour to do well, but there is the parliamentary by-election in David Miliband's old seat of South Shields.

I would imagine that Labour would hold on to SS, since the last time they voted Tory was 1832, but what about UKIP surely SS weould not vote for them ?

All Tories know they're in for a bashing today...there will be no surprises.

The Tories start from a very high platform following the 2009 elections where people voted against the Brown government. It will be the same story this time around, but in favour of Labour...and in some cases maybe UKIP

When I exercised my franchise this morning, I couldn't help noticing that on the Ballot Paper, UKIP was at the bottom of the listed candidates.
A self-fulfilling prophecy, perhaps?

Oh, let's hope so

blueturando wrote:All Tories know they're in for a bashing today...there will be no surprises.

The Tories start from a very high platform following the 2009 elections where people voted against the Brown government. It will be the same story this time around, but in favour of Labour...and in some cases maybe UKIP

So I suppose blue that on Friday morning Cameron will now know how Gordon Brown felt in 2009, and i think he better get used to it because come May 2015 he will get "That same Old Feeling".

A new all time low?...

In the past i have commented on the fact that candidates for elections seem to not bother going for door to door (unless there is a TV camera handy) relying on leaflets to set out their and tier parties aims, objective and aspirations ( Good Tory Buzz word)...This local election, the candidates for all four parties Conservative. Lib Dem, Labour and Ukip have not even bothered to send/deliver leaflets.....

Apart from going online to look at who the candidates were, the first sight of their names would have been on the ballot paper...

If they think so little of the electorate why should anyone vote for them......

The result has been a spoilt ballot paper.......

And a plague on all their houses......