Latest polls

First topic message reminder :

Latest YouGov results are apparently:

Con 30%
Lab 42%
LDem 6%
UKIP 10%

So the drop in Labour's lead to single-digits in a different poll earlier this week was a 'blip', seemingly - the change was within the margin of error and not significant.

Very close stuart not unless the Labour party pulls a white rabbit out of the hat at the last minute.

Three opinion polls in the last 48 hours which should put a smile on the faces of most Cutting Edge members.  

17 December:-
ICM/Guardian: Lab 33%, Con 28%, Lib Dems 14%, UKIP 14%, Greens 5%.      

18 December:-
YouGov/Sun: Lab 35%, Con 30%, UKIP 16%, Greens 8%, Lib Dems 6%.            

19 December:-
TNS: Lab 35%, Con 28%, UKIP 19%, Greens 7%, Lib Dems 5%.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Why does it appear that Labour is starting to develop a lead? My guess is that Osborne frightened the horses with his autumn statement, telling voters there would be a further £48 billion of cuts at the same time as the government is trumpeting that the UK economy is growing!

Hooray!

Thank you IVAN for the update on the polls the OBR certainly did help get peoples brains working overtime, Osborne had said there would be £12 billion taken out of the Welfare budget then the OBR told us the truth it would have to be £21 billion out of Welfare to balance the books.

What the Tories set up is telling the people of the UK the truth behind the Tory LIES.

Such hypocrites are the Tories Redflag, they will never change will they?

Wouldn't it all be lovely, but look at some of the variations ( eg the LibDems).

And all it will take is for a hostile media to jog Unsteady Eddie's arm and he will drop the ball at a crucial moment.

Those born-to-rule Tories are not going to let go of power easily...

I know Phil, because some of the polls that I have got from the pc recently still has the Tories in front by 1%, which is not so good is it? there is quite a while yet to go before the elections so judge the results closer to the time would be wiser would it not?

The parliamentary Conservative Party is merely the pretty face of some distinctly unattractive people who intend to maintain control of their agreeable lifestyle by providing as much support as may be required to ensure a suitable environment in the media and sufficient resources to assist the right people to become elected on their behalf.

It's a centuries-old custom.

The polls will probably stop for Christmas any time now, but there are two more tonight:-

YouGov/Times: Lab 34%, Con 32%, UKIP 15%, Greens 8%, Lib Dems 6%.

Opinium/Observer: Lab 36%, Con 29%, UKIP 16%, Lib Dems 6%, Greens 5%.

Labour races into seven-point lead as ratings for Nigel Farage show sharp fall:-
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/20/labour-takes-seven-point-lead-farage-opinium-poll

Osborne threatened us with the endless pain of austerity just over four months before the election, and that may prove crucial.

Pollsters do use slightly different methods of translating their raw data. I believe that ICM factors in an assumption that many people who say they have changed their allegiance will, on polling day, return to the party they voted for last time. Old habits die hard etc. That probably accounts for the 14% Lib Dem score, while the other four polls have them no higher than 6%. Another source suggests that about one-third of those who say they support the Greens will vote tactically for Labour in the general election. Whether a large number of UKIP supporters do the same for the Tories is anyone’s guess.

Start believing them about the end of March Ivan, you will get a more positive picture by then I believe, IMO.

Very likely true, Stu. A National Poll cannot show the local "pockets" of support for one Party or another, but the prominent feature of our electoral system is the predictability of "safe seats". Governments are accordingly won and lost in so-called marginal constituencies which thereby become the only results that matter to a politician.

Therefore that is where they will put the most effort in winning, will it not OW? ALL THE BIG BOYS AND GALS doing the canvassing.

It's a depressing thought - all that trying to persuade an electorate who can be stupid enough to vote Tory, or who suddenly fall in love with Farage.

How glad I am that , whatever mad decisions Joe and Josephine, Muhammed and Samira Public make, it will not have the slightest detrimental effect on me. I just pity those who have to suffer the consequences of the fickle fashions and prejudices which afflicts some in the polling booths...

Frwhat you are saying PH itseems you believe we will have a Tory gov't in 2015, the UK public will be playing into the hands of the SNP party because if we do get a Tory gov't Scotland will break away from the UK no ands or buts us Scots will leave the UK.

Because it is always England that votes Tory, I have enough to worry about that the SNP will take some of the Scottish Labour votes which will disallow the Labvour party from getting an overall majority in the HOC.

How glad I am that , whatever mad decisions Joe and Josephine, Muhammed and Samira Public make, it will not have the slightest detrimental effect on me.


Good for you

I thought the full quotation in context might have been helpful...

But those English idiots that vote damn Tory will have a detrimental effect on me will they not.

As I sought to say, I do have every sympathy for those who will suffer from the stupidity of so many voters, despite the fact that I shall not be one of those affected.

What would people prefer - that I care not a jot for whoever is affected? Or maybe that I just shut up?

“If you are not a part of the solution, you are a part of the problem.”

― Eldridge Cleaver

Prefer you as you are Phil so please do not change.

stuart torr wrote:Such hypocrites are the Tories Redflag, they will never change will they?

That is one thing the TGories know how to do well stuart and that is "LIE THROUGH THERE BACK TEETH"

Well they have been doing it long enough have they not Redflag?

My heart is gladened by the overall trend in the polls, after narrowing to virtualy neck and neck during November, the gap has widened slightly again, though for some reason "Electoral Calculus" seem to be a month behind with a prediction of Labor short by 10 seats.

Meanwhile "UK Polling Report" is up to date, with a prediction of a Labour majority of 12.

The big worry is the SNPand the possibility of denying a Labour victory, or worse, allowing the Tories back into power by taking most Scottish seats.

Electoral Calculus uses a much bigger sample than other pollsters (around 11,000 people, compared to the usual sample of around 1,000). Probably because of all the work involved in making predictions for every constituency, it only makes a general election prediction once a month.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

We can hope that, when we’ve had a few more months since the referendum, the Scots will calm down and realise the choice before them: do they want to send SNP MPs to Westminster to give the Tories a hard time, or do they want to send Labour MPs to evict the Tories from office? I think that’s the line Jim Murphy should be pushing.

Interesting that the prediction is 0 seats for the kippers - after all the hoo-haw you'd expect them to get at least one or two

You would have thought so would you not boatlady wouldn't you?

blueturando wrote:And when nothing happens in April, what are you going to say Redflag?

Check out Skywalkers post blue or better still take a look at the polls since Giddy-up Osbornes Autumn statement

Thought I'd better post tonight's YouGov/Sun poll, just in case anyone feels inclined to make a song and dance about it:-
LAB 33%, CON 31%, UKIP 17%, GREENS 8%, LIB DEMS 7%.

With David having apparently won the TV debate argument by a KO , we can now anticipate poor little Ed being publicly dismantled .
What do you say when your " Freeze Energy Prices " flagship policy has collapsed and the economy is set so fair?

patakace said: "With David having apparently won the TV debate argument by a KO ,"
Could you please explain just how you arrived at that conclusion.

Bobby do not take any notice of patakace he/she opens there mouth and speaks through there ASS Hole, he/she enjoys talking VERBAL DIARROHEA like the Daily Fail, as the general election draws nearer the VERBAL DIARROHEA will get more like Fantasy and wishfull thinking.   Davy boy is dead meat and the knives are out already so many of the Tory MPs want his job as leader of the Tory party that is something I do not understand its a dead-end job.

Keep 'em coming Redflag.

I will do my best stuart but I like to hit back with TRUTH because  know the Tories hate people been told the truth, it gets in the way of them Spinning LIES

oftenwrong wrote:

The only reason Salmomd is trying for a seat in Westminister OW, is to cause mischeif which will get him another shot at an Independence referendum he is so Desperate to break Scotland away from the UK and will do it by fair means or foul. That is what frightens me for us Scots I am keeping my fingers crossed he does not get his seat in Westminister and it is possible.

och aye ye naye. Redflag.

No wonder the polls are so close between Labour and Tories.

LABOUR would cut top university fees to £6,000, says Ed Miliband

This should be making the headlines, it won't and we know why don't we? If the media/press were impartial as they should be, then Labour would be well ahead in the polls.

Labour getting positive publicity from our biased media is about as likely as Stu winning Miss World

Now now boatlady,