Most likely result of the general election in 2015?

First topic message reminder :

Looking at the current state of UK politics what do you all think is the most likely outcome of the next General Election?
 
Personally I think Labour will win but not with a out right majority (as it currently stands at least).
 
I had a quick look and couldn't see another thread like this but if there is my apologies.

Neither of them, and I certainly do not believe in aliens.

stuart torr wrote:Neither of them, and I certainly do not believe in aliens.

How odd .
I thought I had met one at long last .

Getting back on the subject......

Four ways Labour has had a better start to 2015 than the Tories:-

1. Labour won the first round of the 'poster wars'.

2. Concerns for the NHS are going up, economic worries are going down.

3. The debate about the debates.

4. Labour’s resilience in the polls.

Details here:-
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2015/jan/16/four-ways-labour-has-had-a-better-start-to-2015-than-the-tories

patakace wrote:

stuart torr wrote:Neither of them, and I certainly do not believe in aliens.

How odd .
I thought I had met one at long last .

You may not be an alien but I am glad you have shown this forum what a VILE & NASTY Tory MP/Voter utters when not in the earshot of the voting public, but they already how vile the Tory party really is by what they have done to the UK over the last nearly five years, and that is the reason why the Tories will not get a majority gov't or a minority gov't in May 2015.

Redflag, do you ever get the taste of black cherries around when patacake posts? or is it just my imagination?

Getting back on the subject......

Well, I think it'll be a resounding Labour victory

stuart torr wrote:Redflag, do you ever get the taste of black cherries around when patacake posts? or is it just my imagination?

It is not your imagination stuart I have had that feeling for a while, but I have got to say some of there posts where very familuar to me.

The result will depend, as always at previous British general elections, upon the "feel-good factor". If people feel reasonably prosperous and the sun is shining on Polling Day, the previous administration will remain in power.

If not, there will be a change of government.

As night follows day.

OW, does it not sound so bad that those things can decide who we have in power for the next five years, and not just peoples political beliefs.

If people believe that, despite the reduced amount of tax being paid to the Treasury, the economy is at long last (despite Osborne's best efforts) recovering from the global credit crunch, it will no longer be a major issue in the election. On the other hand, if the NHS is perceived to be in crisis because of waiting times for treatment, that could become the issue which propels this rancid government out of office.

Waiting times for ambulances, A + E full and patients awaiting treatment in store rooms and corridors for up to 6-8 hours, shortages of all staff, from ambulance staff, nurses, all forms of doctors and some covering for as long as they can, until they are nearly collapsing, yes you Tories is that what you call getting things right and putting enough money into the NHS, YOU LYING BASTARDS.

It's funny , in a sad sort of way , watching and listening to people trying to hold up a falling and falling structure ( the No Hope Service ) .
Once the legs stop working , it's just a matter of time before the heart stops ticking .
What's the answer ?
Stop living in the past and run a Hope Service based on priorities that are businesslike and affordable .
Or should we watch the Left yet again indulge in more bankruptcy because cherishing outdated principles is selfishly more satisfying and presumably judged more important than actually truly caring about patients .

patakace wrote:It's funny  , in a sad sort of way  ,  watching and listening to people trying to hold up a falling and falling  structure ( the  No Hope Service ) .
Once the legs stop working , it's just a matter of time before the heart stops ticking .
What's the answer ?
Stop living in the past and run a Hope Service based on priorities that are businesslike and affordable  .
Or should we watch the Left  yet again indulge in more bankruptcy because  cherishing outdated principles  is  selfishly more satisfying and presumably  judged more important than actually truly caring about patients .

The only reason OUR NHS is failing is because that was the Tory plan from the beginning once Landsley put his nasty plan into action that was the beginning of the end for OUR NHS as we had knonw it, all that says is that the Tories have CRAPPED in there own nest that is one of the big things that will stop people from voting Tory on 7th May 2015. There are other reasons ie the Public sector workers that will not be voting Tory the only ones that will vote Tory is the South East of England that is unless they decide to vote Ukip!!

The only people that indulged in Bankruptsy was the Tory voters B(W)ankers hedge fund managers who at the moment are living off the fat of the land, only for the next few months then they will pay through the nose for there Profiteering at the expence of the other 99% of the UK public. The only people living in the past is the Tory MPs & voters because that is where this gov't wants to take the UK back too the days of Charles Dickens novels and the WORKHOUSES of the past, sorry to say the majority of the UK will not allow them.

You lot can still not bare to tell the TRUTH about who put us into the mess we are in today, RBS got £45.80 Billion to bail them out of the SHYTE they got themselves into, LLoyds TSB got £20.54 billion, Northern Rock got £22.99 billion, Bradford Bingley got £8.55 billion plus £26.05 billion to cover the cost of paying out to normal savers the money they had deposited with the banks.

If Gordon Brown & Alsiter Darling had not borrowed this money people savings and there monthly salary would have went down the tubes, I wish he had just allowed the banks to go to the bloody wall yes we would be in a mess but then again so would the Tory backers except for those that have squirreled away there money in off shore accounts. Then Cameron & Osborne could with all Honesty turn round and say "We Are All In This Together" the only piece of honesty he would have Uttered in his 5year term in office.

Two matters , imo ,  my idealistic and sentimental chap .

* the nonsense about who did  "what " and "when " is just another type of Conspiracy Theory .
Not so long the intellectual under belly on the Left used to try and paint all Tories as " Toffs "who only cared about their own .
Such inflammatory and disgusting rubbish has all but disappeared  , now that it is understood that  the working class are just as likely to  vote Tory .
The collapse of the NHS has nothing really to do with inter party politic funding and practises  : but everything to do with  not updating total society priorities and  not being able to allocate within true means .
To say that everybody should be treated Free  was  laudable and a great sounding goal . But it no longer has any real relation to reality .
Certainly , Tories are not a different species  though  convincing arguments are available which almost demonstrate that a caring person is more unlikely to succeed in their aims if their principles are grounded in Liberal thinking .
That is , the Left talks the talk but seems incapable of walking the walk .Or , more specifically , performing simple maths exercises based on addition and subtraction .

* There are no Hospitals if the Bankers get it wrong .
It is no use equating wretched Bankers with incompetent NKS managers .
Hospitals need Banks but Banks do not need Hospitals .

To ensure that Hospitals are best served , you need the regulations which the whole economy and society think they want .That must start with Bankers .
For one party to blame the other for the unbelievable failings in total is just another type of Conspiracy building twaddle .
The failure was across the board and over decades .
The tragedies that ensue from Bankers getting it wrong must always be far greater than the hopeless mistakes surrounding Hospitals . By definition .
But to compare one group with another is beyond the absurd .
They both consume money but Banks can thrive without Hospitals whereas the opposite is impossible .

You go and tell the 99% of UK people its judt a conspiracy theory and be prepared to get your head in yours to play with,                                                                                                    take a good look at the the front bench of this Tory led gov't the majority of them where born with a silver spoon in there mouth or inherit or about to inerit daddies money when he pops his clogs.   The only disgusting RUBBISH is what I have had to just read in your post but there is no chance of the working class voting Tory in the next 1,000 years after what they have done to them in the last nearly 5 years .     Forcing them to pay for the B(W)ankers greed while they still get huge salaries and enormous bonuses, instead of making the bankers pay back the money that HAD to be borrowed to bail the SCUMBAGS bankers ou.

The Tories are a different breed of people they have never had to worry about where the money is coming from to pay rent/mortgage food energy bills they have not got a clue what real life is all about.   Do not say the rest of the Tory MPs are from normal households they are earning more in 6 months than most people earn in a year.

Because of the bankers greed in 2008 we may not have our NHS for much longer and the money comes from peoples tax & NI contributions to pay for the NHS, but of course Osborne would rather give his mates a 5p tax cut costing the treasury £3 billion in lost revenue but this shower of SCUMBAGS would rather cut the peoples public services then ask those with the broadest shoulders to pay a bit more in tax.

Your post is full of untruths, for one its through the banks greed of 2008 that our NHS is struggling now this Tory led gov't has cut the budget to he NHS so they can pay the interest on the money borrowed to bail the backstuds out, as I have said its the normal working poeples tax money and NI contributions that pay for our NHS not the bankers.

The banks do not consume money they use it in the most fraudulent way possible, at least when NHS gets its budget it used on people that are sick to buy medical equipment medicines etc.

There is nothing in place to stop the bankers from doing what they did in 2008 and the people of the UK will not allow any gov't to bail them out again so hell mend them if they go to the wall. The only twaddle I have read is you trying to take the blame off the bankers and put the blame on our NHS & the workers who have not had a pay rise for 5 years unlike the bankers who DID CAUSE the UK problems of today.

Superb reply Redflag, you are so right about these silver spooned Tories not knowing any hardship in their lives, and also really inheriting jobs at daddies owned workplaces, daddy obviously rich enough to send him or her to oxford or cambridge, which would cost more than any normal persons household bills. patakace is she real Redflag?

Clegg's reputation has been shredded for doing what coalition-building small parties do every election in Europe. However the UK just doesn't get this. In 2015 the polls suggest Labour will have most seats but not an overall majority. As three, even conceivably four, parties have to play coalition just to give us a government, the UK media and public will have a collective nervous breakdown and the Clegg era will be viewed as a golden age.

Hi DaveChesh nice to meet you.
There's no need to give a reason for an edit that you do before anyone has replied to your post - only if people have already replied and you then want to edit, we'd ask you to give a reason, otherwise the thread may not make much sense.

I agree, what Clegg's doing at present is only the predictable actions of any political animal hoping to build a coalition with more powerful players - what may be making people feel a bit cynical about him is the memory of all the promises he made before entering into the current coalition - only to break instantly once he was in power ( I think there was some sort of promise about tuition fees for example).

For me, the nightmare scenario would be a coalition of three or four parties, especially if they have widely ranging and mutually exclusive agendas.
I'd like to see a clear Labour majority and a raft of measures to reduce inequality, return the NHS to public ownership (and a few other things to be honest), and address the housing shortage and problems with education.
At the moment the polls don't seem to be promising me what I want - hopefully this will change.
If not, I expect the nightmare scenario may have to be played out - perhaps you could describe in a bit more detail how you expect this to look?

Thanks for the tip! Polls consistently suggest Labour can't clinch it. But a Labour-SNP coalition might. Clegg's promise re tuition fees was binding if they won. They didn't. Coalitions mean you get some not all of your manifesto implemented. This is far too nuanced for our media who don't get coalition. Germany has thrived under coalitions where these sorts of compromises are usual. I quite like coalitions. Maybe I've been Bergened?

Seem to know Germany Dave, have you worked and lived there long?

No, never been, live in Dorset! Just read a lot! Do you think Ed has developed a narrative strong enough to counter his image problem? Do you see him as a potential PM? He's made some rookie mistakes.

I can see where a coalition could help avoid 'pure' application of harmfully ideological policies (I could wish Thatcher had had to work within a coalition as this would have limited the harm she could do) however, coalition politics is something in England we're not familiar with on the whole.

I don't recall that the LibDems got any of their manifesto stuff implemented - so, were they shafted?

A Labour/SNP coalition - not sure - maybe my good friend Redflag  has a view on that ?

In relation to EdM - he does come across as maybe a bit honest and naïve, but I think that makes him more attractive on the whole - we've seen 'politics' in the sense of telling giant great porkies to the electorate and personally speaking I've had enough - ready for a fresh face with a less disingenuous approach. Ed is nobody's fool in my opinion and seems to know what he's about in broad general terms - I think it's a bit early to be filling in the blanks as it's clear that the Tories are just going to try and steal any firm policy promise that Labour make (Britain needs a pay rise for example - didn't Cameron just say something like that recently?)

Yes I think so Dave, plus the thing going for him and an outright Labour victory, is the broken promises of the Tory party, and the state mainly of the NHS at this moment in time, and secondly the housing problems.
People that live in the flats or housing where repairs take til september to get fixed or have to go to hospitals as often as I do are not going to vote Tory.

But did they ever? Is the Labour heartland/core vote enough? Not for any recent leader except Blair.

cybercheshired wrote:Clegg's reputation has been shredded for doing what coalition-building small parties do every election in Europe. However the UK just doesn't get this. In 2015 the polls suggest Labour will have most seats but not an overall majority. As three, even conceivably four, parties have to play coalition just to give us a government, the UK media and public will have a collective nervous breakdown and the Clegg era will be viewed as a golden age.

If Clegg had kept his promise on Uni fees or not made the promise at all because through that he has lost all creditabilty with the voting public, IMHO Clegg only made that promise hoping more people would vote for him and look at him now still doing the same thing in the 2015 general election does he really want to finish off the Lib-Dems.

Coming out over the week-end saying he will be back in gov't either Labour or Tory gov't, after what Clegg & the Tories have done to 99% of the people of the UK does he really think he will get enough MPs to form a coalition with anybody, plus he is tainted for jumping into bed with the Tories I do not think Ed Miliband will, he may pick another one of the small parties to form a gov't that will take the wind out of Cleggs sails.

I just hope the good people of the UK realise all they have to do is get out there on the 7th May & vote Labour so we get a majority Labour gov't cyberchesired, this is not Europe we are used to majority gov't some of these European countries take forever to form gov'ts.

As Boris rightly highlighted today , Labour has no flag ship policy now that Ed's "Freeze Energy Prices " has become idiotic given the way the market has moved .
This must be the worst prepared and least liked Opposition leader in living memory .

More bullshit mrs black cherry.

stuart torr wrote:More bullshit mrs black cherry.

Why such a churlish reply?
Disagree by all means but don't demean yourself .
Remember that you are theoretically part of the " Cutting Edge" Forum .

You are still theoretically too are you not mrs.

patakace wrote:-
Labour has no flag ship policy now that Ed's "Freeze Energy Prices" has become idiotic given the way the market has moved.
This must be the worst prepared and least liked Opposition leader in living memory.

It’s a problem for all opposition parties that if you formulate and announce policies a year or two before an election, they risk becoming out of date. Rachel Reeves acknowledged that “the world had changed” since Labour announced its price freeze in late 2013.  

Caroline Flint, the shadow energy secretary, said companies will not be able to enjoy a freeze at current high prices because the energy regulator will get new powers to force companies to cut their bills when gas and electricity prices fall on the international wholesale markets. She said this has always been Labour’s policy even before energy prices started to fall dramatically last year.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/jan/14/labour-defends-policy-freeze-energy-bills

Before the last election, the Tories only announced two policies – to cut inheritance tax and to legalise foxhunting. They didn’t reveal their plans for the NHS until after the election, or their intention to asset-strip almost the entire state for the benefit of their donors and cronies. Didn’t Osborne’s best man do well for himself out of the Royal Mail privatisation?

Labour is well prepared and open about its intentions; it has a raft of policies for the election. It may not have the donations which the Tory spivs have collected from hedge funds, Russian oligarchs and those who have been sold state assets, but it does have far more foot soldiers and has already spoken to over 4 million people on their doorsteps.

Right up until the 1979 election, Callaghan was more popular than Thatcher, but it didn’t hand him victory. How anyone can be taken in by the arrogant serial liar Cameron, who can’t ever give a straight answer to a question (and is therefore anxious to avoid any debates), is beyond me. However, we live in a supposed democracy, and if people wish to believe ‘Daily Mail’ claptrap and prefer a man who leaves his child in a pub to someone who looks awkward eating a sandwich, I guess that’s their prerogative.

IVAN do you not remember the rather large billposter from Davy boy that said "NHS SAFE IN OUR HANDS" Since all the LIES the Tories have told the people of the UK in the past 5 years, as for Tory friends & donors we will not know the full extent of how well they have done until the Labour party gets into power and sees all the paperwork but a lot more than we know about.

People seem to forget that both medias are controlled by the Tory party it is so obvious, that is why I do not believe the polls more so the one by the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft it is more than likely because the Tories & Lib-Dems know now that they have not got a hope in hell of getting voted back into power in May.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/01/the-tories-need-to-weaponise-ed-milibands-incompetence/

There is nothing more effective for highlighting an incompetent than letting them demonstrate their incompetence for you . See the Spectator article and Andrew  Marr humiliating little Ed .
This is probably poor  Miliband's  greatest talent -- messing with crucial details and  then just messing up .
With their flag ship policy of freezing energy prices  in tatters , Labour are struggling to find anything interesting to say .
They desperately wanted to misrepresent the economy in total by pretending that during austerity wages should rise  at least in line with inflation . And that one day they should be able to wake up , banish austerity and let increased earnings flood in to destroy everything positive that had been achieved .Dream on Eddie .

Back in the real world we now  have effectively no inflation and every day brings sunny news of earnings catching up .
As if  they  could grow faster than inflation in any serious attempt to regulate an economy !! You could not invent such twaddle  and keep  a straight face .
Yes , what twaddle the Left manufactures .
A pity that Labour cannot  turn it  into private sector growth . Then , at long last , they would be acting productively .

Well anyone can change their mind.

“[BBC political commentator] Andrew Marr .… got flack when he got his [BBC] job, from The Daily Mail, for being left wing...

“He was a Maoist, who gave out copies of the Little Red Book!”

http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2013-10-14/andrew-marr-was-a-maoist-at-university-reveals-nick-robinson

People who can change -------Only Red Lefties in your world .
But apparently not Tories .
Is that the best defence for someone you somehow picture as a future PM ?
As a British person I would cringe in embarrassment if I had to admit to other people that he was our representative .

Ed Miliband will represent you after the next Election as much as the Tory posh boys have represented me for the past four years. It's called the democratic will of the people. However, successful chaps such as yourself can always choose to absent themselves in favour of a Caribbean DFZ. (Have I got the acronym right?)

I believe you have O.W. and I am very hopeful you are right with regards to the next four years after the election.

Thankfully yesterday consolidated the view that the Tories will sweep back with a clear majority .
The pols are moving to Blue with the Tories in a two point lead as reported and linked in a sister Topic .
With so much good news about , Labour are in disarray .
Following their proposed policy howler of freezing energy prices , their last hopes that somehow " the economy" could save them were smashed
Inflation 0.5%
Earnings +1.8%
Job vacancies 700 000 .
Great Britain --- the envy of the EZ and EU .
Will George Osborne go down as the greatest Chancellor since 1945?
Increasingly likely .

"Whistling in the dark"
is the phrase which springs to mind.

patakace wrote:As Boris  rightly highlighted  today , Labour has no flag ship policy now that Ed's  "Freeze Energy Prices " has become idiotic given the way the market has moved .
This must be the worst prepared and least liked Opposition leader in living memory .

Ed Milibands would have CAPPED the energy prices, so let me spell it out for you patakace it would have meant that ENERGY PRICES could not GO UP but could be reduced with the energy prices coming down by between 26-30% yet the energy companies only have given there customers by Three & half & 5%. That is the reason why Ed Miliband brought in this policy unlike the Tories that will allow the energy companies to rip off there customers because they do not give TWO HOOTS for the working man/women. The oinly people Davy boy cares about is those that have made Millions in the last 5 years off the backs of having to work for zero hour contracts or CRAPPY PAY.

patakace wrote:

stuart torr wrote:More bullshit mrs black cherry.

Why such a churlish  reply?
Disagree by all means but don't demean yourself .
Remember that you are theoretically part of the " Cutting Edge" Forum .

If you ask for a churlish answer that is what you will get patakace